Thread: Potential Efforts to Reboot Afghanistan

Reflections on Events in Afghanistan-33

November 10, 2021 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

33. US recognition of Taliban Government will be a game changer

"The stunning disclosure late Tuesday in Brussels that the US is working on a “road map” for according recognition to the Taliban Government will take a lot of people by surprise but it could have been expected sooner rather than later.

The US has a consistent record of rethinking its strategies once it realises that the policy has landed in a cul-de-sac. That is exactly what has happened in this case.

Pressure tactic will not work on the Taliban, which has a strong support base rooted in Pashtun ethno-nationalism. On the other hand, the US took no interest whatsoever in the self-styled Panjshiri “resistance”, either. In retrospect, the Biden Administration, quintessentially, resumed the Doha peace process.

Former US Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad recently acknowledged that the US and Taliban were inches away from realising the understanding per the Doha agreement that an interim government would be formed in Kabul (which, of course, Ashraf Ghani and his clique duly sabotaged.)
The new US Special Representative for Afghanistan Tom West explained in a briefing on Tuesday that Washington is worried about an uptick in attacks by the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan and remains deeply concerned about al Qaeda’s ongoing presence there.

West is currently on a visit to Brussels to brief the NATO allies on US’ talks with the Taliban and hold consultations on a “road map” toward recognition of the government. Importantly, he was speaking on-the record.
To quote West, “The Taliban have voiced very clearly and openly their desire to normalise relations with the international community, to see a resumption in aid, to see a return of the international diplomatic community to Kabul and to see sanctions relief. The United States can deliver none of these things on our own.” (here)

West is proceeding from Brussels to Pakistan for a meeting of the “Troika Plus” in Islamabad on Thursday. From there, he’ll travel to Delhi to brief the US’ Quad ally on the new thinking in Washington regarding the Taliban Government and the developments thereof.
From Delhi, West is proceeding to Moscow. Tass had reported earlier citing Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that during a telephone conversation with the Russian presidential envoy Zamir Kabulov, West had said he wanted to come to Moscow to establish contact with the Russian side. Accordingly, a “working visit” has been scheduled for coming Monday.

West’s disclosure comes against the backdrop of the Pakistani media reports on Tuesday that Islamabad is “set to host the interim Afghan foreign minister as well as special envoys from the United States, Russia and China as part of diplomatic efforts aimed at preparing the ground for the international community’s recognition of the Taliban government.”

Incidentally, Interim Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, leading a high-powered delegation, is expected to arrive in Islamabad on Wednesday, which will be his official first visit to Pakistan.
The meeting of the special envoys in Islamabad will be in the format of the so-called “Troika Plus” — Russia, US, China and Pakistan. According to Express Tribune newspaper, Muttaqi will also join the “Troika Plus” meeting, which if correct, will be highly symbolic. In reality, Taliban authorities are being co-opted by the “Troika Plus.”

Conceivably, the US is considering to provide access to Afghanistan’s blocked funds in American banks to the tune of $9.5 billion. There is immense international pressure on this score, as was apparent at the recent meeting of the regional states in the so-called Moscow Format.
Clearly, the Biden Administration has veered round to the view that it is in the interests of regional and international security that the Taliban Government’s capacity to stabilise the Afghan situation, especially on the security and economic arena, is beefed up in whatever way possible.

Without doubt, the Biden Administration is taking the right approach, although this is going to be controversial in the polarised political opinion in the US. To be sure, this rethink carries the imprimatur of President Biden.
It appears that Beijing is in for a nasty surprise by the turnaround in the US thinking. A commentary in Global Times earlier Tuesday was apparently quite unaware of the meeting of the “Troika Plus” in Islamabad or that the ground beneath the feet was shifting dramatically.

The Global Times report said that “Muttaqi’s visit to Pakistan is likely to be transactional with discussions on practical issues of mutual concern, including Afghan Taliban’s role as mediator between the Pakistani government and the Pakistani Taliban.

“Despite the frequent recent interaction between the Taliban government and Pakistan, there is long way to go before a country recognises the Taliban government as legitimate. In addition to the implementation of anti-terrorism commitments ensuring inclusiveness and protecting women’s rights by the Taliban, there are also specific issues ahead such as borders and trade routes.”

Interestingly, the report went on to speculate that “one possibility is that after China, Russia, Pakistan and other regional countries establish a dialogue with relevant countries in the Middle East, they will recognise the Taliban regime collectively or independently.”

On the contrary, the Biden Administration has been talking directly to the Taliban and Islamabad all this while but kept the discussions strictly on a “need-to-know” basis, which excluded Beijing. At any rate, Beijing has been on a hostile belligerent mode and refusing to cooperate with Washington. Its growing assertiveness as kingmaker in Kabul has suffered a setback with Washington quietly moving in. The great game is shifting gear.

Indeed, the above developments completely change the regional alignments. For a start, Pakistan bounces back as Washington’s most important partner in the period ahead in regard of the “road map” under consideration for recognising the Taliban Government. An effective future US role in Afghanistan will need to be anchored on Pakistan’s cooperation.

Quite obviously, the Biden Administration has been swayed by the Pakistani argument that continued procrastination in engaging with the Taliban Government holds dangers and a replay of the anarchical conditions in the 1990s may well ensue with the added complication that the ISIS is gathering strength.
Equally, the US seems to share the British assessment that the progressive elements within the Taliban deserve to be supported. Giving evidence to the UK’s House of Commons Defence Committee on Tuesday, General Sir Nick Carter, the Chief of the Defence Staff said,

“Taliban 2.0 is different. There are a lot of people in Taliban 2.0 who would like to govern in a more modern way, but they are divided among themselves, as political entities so often are.
“If the less repressive elements end up gaining greater control… then I think there is no reason to suppose that Afghanistan over the next five years might not turn out into a country that is more inclusive than it might have been otherwise.

Interestingly, Gen. Carter who has had a hands-on role in the Afghan issues, was dismissive about winners and losers. As he put it, “I think it is too early to say that defeat has occurred. Victory here needs to be measured in the results and not some great military extravaganza.”

The US and the UK mostly move in tandem, especially when it comes to Afghanistan. Biden was in UK only last weekend for the climate summit in Glasgow.

Credit goes to Biden ultimately for the sense of realism that is on display here to let bygones be bygones and to open a new page as quickly as possible in the US national interests. "

Reflections on Events in Afghanistan-33 - Indian Punchline

Originally Posted by OhOh

No link to substantiate your opinion.

Wtf is this supposed to mean? All a link does is indicate someone elses opinion.
Opinions are like assholes everyone has one. Even TD members whose opinions are just as valid as internet pundits.

Here is this asshole's opinion:

Afganistan has and will remain a war zone as it historically has. Civil and foreign powers will continue to ensure this. Now another new government, the Taliban, rule. As has happened repeatably in the past they too shall be replaced, by force, by an equally incompetent power seeking organization. Anyone thinking the Taliban is in anyway going to bring peace and stability to the nation and it's people is smoking some really potent weed. Don't bogart it. Share with me please.

Originally Posted by panama hat

OhWoe doesn't have his own opinion, hence his request for links all the time

Well it's more

Hoohoo: Chinkystan is the best country in the world!

Anyone else: No it's not, it's a totalitarian shithole.

Hoohoo: No, look, I have a link saying how brilliant it is from "chinkypropaganda.com"

Anyone else: No, that's propaganda, and it's a totalitarian shithole.

Hoohoo: But you haven't got a link so I WIN blah blah blah

Reflections on Events in Afghanistan-34

November 13, 2021 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

34. Central Asia hooking up to CPEC

"The information war is so intense nowadays that unsung melodies are often more alluring that the sung ones. The lines from English poet Shelley’s famous ode To a Skylark come to mind — ‘In the broad day-light / Thou art unseen, but yet I hear thy shrill delight…’

Two events in the past fortnight indicated growing optimism about Afghanistan’s future. Both developments signify that the scaffolding for improved regional connectivity, economic development, and governance is coming up, largely unreported.

Certainly, the three-day visit to Islamabad in early November by Uzbekistan’s National Security Advisor Lt. Gen. Victor Makhmudov at the invitation of Pakistan’s NSA Moeed Yusuf deserved far more attention than it did. Prime Minister Imran Khan and Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa received the Uzbek delegation.

Uzbekistan is an advanced model of state formation in the post-Soviet space. The full control to exercise national security powers vested with the institution of the National Security Council in Tashkent under the chairmanship of the president gives remarkable consistency to the country’s policies. Makhmudov is holding his position since 2013.

Abdulaziz Kamilov has been Uzbekistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs since 2012 — and is probably the most experienced foreign minister anywhere in the world if his nine years in a previous stint from 1994 to 2003 is also taken into account. No wonder, Uzbek foreign policies have been performing so brilliantly amidst a challenging external environment.

During Makhmudov’s visit, Pakistan has done well to sign a protocol with Uzbekistan, which “will help strengthen coordination on security and regional connectivity between our two brotherly countries,” as NSA Moeed Yusuf wrote in a tweet.

The official statement issued in Islamabad said the protocol “covers wide-ranging security-related matters of mutual interest and establishes coordination mechanism” between the two national security councils.

Yusuf told the media after the signing ceremony that the two countries would expand cooperation against terrorism, transnational crimes, drug trafficking under the new security commission, assist each other on anti-narcotics force and disaster management capacity building, and also strengthen defence and military cooperation.

To be sure, the developments in Afghanistan dominated the one-on-one meeting between Yusuf and Makhmudov. Yusuf said Islamabad and Tashkent “shared the same stance” on Afghanistan — namely, there should be constructive engagement with the current government in Kabul to avert a humanitarian crisis that could further severely affect the neighbouring countries.

Enhanced outreach to Central Asia under its geo-economics policy is a key objective for Pakistan. The Uzbek delegation travelled to the Torkham border to witness the arrival of four cargo trucks all the way from Uzbekistan via Afghanistan to Pakistan. In May this year, Pakistan’s first transport under the TIR system was sent to Uzbekistan via the land route.

As Yusuf put it, “Uzbekistan due to its close proximity with Afghanistan is a very crucial element in attaining our geo-economic paradigm.” This is a statement of fact. An ex-Soviet technocrat and a sports icon and playboy make improbable partners, but in reality, Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev and PrimeMinister Imran Khan have struck a warm friendship at personal level.

Personal equations at leadership level help advance geo-strategy in the steppes and both leaders are conscious of the imperatives of politics and economics that push them together. Thus was born the Uzbek-Pakistani home-grown approach to regional stability and economic growth.

Uzbekistan has prioritised transport through Pakistan to the ports of Gwadar and Karachi over the Chabahar route to the world market. Indeed, the US State Department was quick to realise this while announcing in July the US-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan-Pakistan Quad, “focused on enhancing regional connectivity” encouraging “long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan.” The US initiative would have rung alarm bells in Moscow and Beijing.

It is against such a dynamic background that the second development of the month, on November 8, needs to be assessed — the dramatic announcement by Kyrgyzstan’s Prime Minister Akylbek Zhaparov that Bishkek is ready to proceed with a long-standing project by Beijing to build a railway line to connect China with Uzbekistan.

The announcement, immediately after the visit of the Uzbek delegation to Islamabad, would suggest a nifty bit of sleight of hand on the part of Beijing working on the ‘big picture’ of the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan. Beijing (and Moscow) will have noticed the desperate Anglo-American mission to stage a comeback in Afghanistan.

The western media which copiously reports if Beijing sneezes, has blocked out Zhaparov’s announcement in Bishkek regarding the railway project. Zhaparov said his government has reached an agreement with Tashkent on all outstanding issues regarding the railway project and expects to do the same with Beijing in the near term, possibly during a high-level visit to the Chinese capital.

China appreciates that Uzbekistan has a fairly developed internal railway network and has potential as a regional hub. Thus, as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, China has longstanding plans to construct a railway from Xinjiang through Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan and onward to Turkmenistan (and Iran.) The main hitch has been that Beijing insisted that the new rail line should adopt tracks with 1,435 millimetres width, which China and most of the world use, while the Soviet-era Russian gauge of 1,520 millimetres is prevalent in Central Asia.

Trust Chinese ingenuity to find a technological solution by double-tracking with the narrower international gauge run inside the larger Russian one, which would also reduce costs of the project by eliminating the need to make transitions at the Chinese-Kyrgyzstani and Turkmenistani-Iranian borders.

In fact, a 2.2 kilometre long Sino-Russian Tongjiang-Nizhneleninskoye railway bridge across the Amur River, the latest project completed under China’s ambitious Belt and Road initiative, has become a ‘technology demonstrator’ using the new method of double tracking.

The first test train crossed the border in August. The Chinese Communist Party has stated at the goal a rail link all the way to London. With the commissioning of the bridge, the railway transportation distance from China’s Heilongjiang province to Moscow will be shortened by 809 kilometres, cutting 10 hours of transportation time.

Iron ore will be the main product carried across the bridge, which has an annual designed cargo capacity of 21 million tons. And, importantly, the railway bridge has a dual track system, which allows trains running on both the Russia gauge and the Chinese gauge!

Bishkek’s clearance for the Chinese railway project can phenomenally transform the cross-border connectivity in the Central Asian region and a host of regional states, including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. The geopolitics of the region will never be the same again.

Uzbekistan is a great beneficiary here, being the principal gateway to Afghanistan and Pakistan (Gwadar and Karachi ports) and Pakistan becoming a pivotal state in regional politics. In March, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan agreed to a roadmap for the building of a 573-kilometre route from Mazar-e-Sharif to Peshawar, via Kabul. The project, at an estimated cost of US$5 billion, will open Pakistani seaports on the Arabian Gulf to Uzbekistan.

From the Russian viewpoint, as the proposed Central Asian rail grid gets connected to the Russian grid. The rail link would have a multiplier effect on Russian capability to tap into Afghan reconstruction.

The criticality of the Afghan situation is compelling the Central Asian states to edge closer and China and Russia to intensify their cooperation and coordination to strengthen regional security. Not to be underestimated is the Uzbek-Kyrgyz agreement in March to resolve their 30-year border dispute at Tashkent’s initiative, which is a prerequisite for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railroad.

To be sure, there is an all-round realisation amongst the main protagonists — principally, amongst China, Uzbekistan and Pakistan –that regional connectivity and long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan are inter-linked."

https://www.indianpunchline.com/refl...fghanistan-34/

Originally Posted by Norton

Here ya go

Thanks for the link.

More positive moves by many of the main players.

Reflections on Events in Afghanistan-35

Posted on November 20, 2021 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

35. Taliban government is steadily consolidating

"The acknowledgement of “shared interests” with Russia regarding Afghanistan by the new US Special Representative for Afghanistan Thomas West following his discussions in Moscow on November 14 with the Kremlin’s Special Presidential Representative Zamir Kabulov and Security Council’s Deputy Secretary Alexander Venediktov is an important step forward.

Kabulov later disclosed that Russia and the US are in agreement that the interim government of the Taliban has got its act together in terms of governance and control over the country. Although a week has passed since Kabulov’s disclosure, Washington has not disputed it.
Of course, West’s consultations in Moscow followed the meeting of the extended troika in Islamabad on November 11 (which he attended) and therefore, it stands to reason that there is a nascent consensus now amongst the principal external protagonists — Russia, the US, China and Pakistan — that the six-week old Taliban Government is now a veritable reality in regional politics and internationally.

Clearly, that puts the “Extended Troika” format as the lead platform for the international community’s engagement with the authorities in Kabul.

Where do things go from this point? First and foremost, the international community will no doubt keep nudging the Taliban to move faster toward an inclusive government and to liberally interpret Shariah law. There are things the Taliban can do and things that it cannot and will not. The announcement in Kabul this week that all girls will resume their school education all over Afghanistan by the appointed date in March 2022 and the commitment that there are no plans to restrict women from working in schools are steps in the right direction.

The level of violence has palpably declined compared to the rule under Ashraf Ghani’s regime. Afghanistan has never been a Switzerland or Bhutan, at peace with itself. There is bound to be residual violence after four decades of a bitterly fought civil war and forever will there be doomsday predictions by interest groups and countries that see advantages in continued anarchy in Afghanistan, but the US’ stance is crucial.

Without American support, another regime change project in Afghanistan cannot fly and even the garrulous “resistance” figures from Panjshir Valley (and their mentors abroad) would know that.

The sense that the US is gradually and steadily shifting into a pragmatic gear vis-a-vis the Taliban government will act as catalyst for other Western countries to engage with the authorities in Kabul. Germany and the Netherlands have joined Britain in that direction.
No doubt, this has rubbed on the latest report by Deborah Lyons, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan to the Security Council in New York on November 17.

Lyons acknowledged that her engagement with the de-facto Taliban administration over the past three months in Kabul and the provinces have been “generally useful and constructive”, with the authorities seeking to have a UN presence and international recognition, as well as looking to overcome the trust deficit between them and the international community.

On governance, Lyons reported, the Taliban government have started raising revenues from customs, which they have used to address pressing issues such as paying civil servant salaries. Further, the Taliban continue to provide security to the UN presence and allow broad humanitarian access, including for female humanitarian workers.
In a huge statement that spoke volumes, she pointed out that the changed security situation has permitted UNAMA to visit parts of the country they have not accessed in 15 years, and to provide vital assistance.

Lyons said “difficult issues” have been raised with the Taliban and while “they have taken cognisance of such concerns, they make clear that for now there are limits to concessions they are willing to make on some issues.” This comes as no surprise and the Western world must come to terms with the realities of Afghan culture, history and traditions of a deeply observant Muslim society.

Most important, Lyons underscored that the dire humanitarian situation in the country is “preventable”, as it is largely due to financial sanctions that have paralysed the economy.

She exhorted the international community to urgently find a way to provide financial support to health-care workers in State hospitals, staff in food security programmes, and eventually to teachers.”
Lyons concluded that UNAMA will aim to play a vital role in a sustained and structured policy dialogue between the de facto authorities, other Afghan stakeholders and the wider region and international community, with the goal of establishing a pathway towards forging constructive relations between Afghanistan and the world at large. read more

Overall, Lyons presented a realistic but cautiously optimistic picture. We can now safely, conclusively bury the scepticism whether the Taliban have “really changed” since the 1990s. The definitive answer is, ‘YES, they indeed have changed beyond any doubt.’

The ball is now in President Biden’s court to lift the sanctions. But the US is a house divided house chaffing under under the humiliation suffered in the war and is still in a punishing mood. Alas, the Congress’ focus is on pillorying Biden politically with an eye on the mid-term elections next year.

Biden’s heart is in the right place alright and he is capable of the milk of human kindness but he is an increasingly distracted leader today and is becoming politically weak to assert. As for his team in the state department, they are far too bureaucratic and in any case immersed in the cold war era strategic culture.
However, the plain truth is that the initiative lies ultimately only with the region. There is a possibility that the Taliban will be invited to attend the next ministerial of neighbouring countries — and possibly the extended troika meeting — in Beijing early next year.

Iran has shown the way on the art of the possible without waiting for the green signal from the extended troika. On Thursday, the Ministry of Finance announced in Kabul that Afghanistan and Iran have created several committees to expand cooperation in various areas between the two countries such as the economy, agriculture, railways, trade and the investment sectors.

By the way, one of the proposals discussed is the creation of a trilateral committee between Afghanistan, Iran and China to build and fund the Herat-Mazar and Wakhan-Kashgar railways, which would have profound impact on regional connectivity.

There are indications that a Taliban government delegation is hoping to receive an invitation visit Moscow for similar discussions. Clearly, the Taliban realises the pivotal role Russia can play in the stabilisation of the situation in Afghanistan. (here, here, here and here) "

https://www.indianpunchline.com/reflections-on-events-in-afghanistan-35/