Thread: The View, from China

One of the reasons China holds the debt is to depress the yuan. It is the world's largest export economy because of the depressed yuan. A weakened dollar means a stronger yuan, and fewer exports. I don't see how that helps them.

Originally Posted by pickel

One of the reasons China holds the debt is to depress the yuan. It is the world's largest export economy because of the depressed yuan. A weakened dollar means a stronger yuan, and fewer exports. I don't see how that helps them.

You are correct, but there are other factors involved.
The point I will try to make below is that though trade with the US is one concern, it is not the only concern IMO
I say IMO. because I might not be correct in some .or perhaps all the points I make.
Simply, that is my assessment ,for what it's worth

Trade balance:
-" U.S. exports to China were $151.1 billion"
-"U.S. imports from China were $506.4 billion, "
So, some of the imports might decrease , but also the remaining imports will cost more . The loss/gain being a wash.
but a benefit to the china would be that they can come shopping (investment) at a discount. aso rendering any losses at the macroeconomic level, a wash.

But exports to the US is not the only game. Chinese exports to the US account for only 3% of chinese GDP

"At the macroeconomic level, China's goods exports to the US continue to account for approximately 3 percent of its annual GDP. "
US and China 2021 Trade Numbers | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
Exports to the US could decrease with fractional affect on Chinese GDP, but imagine the gain of China in the Geo Political gain if they could dislodge the dominance of the dollar ?

Originally Posted by Buckaroo Banzai

But exports to the US is not the only game. Chinese exports to the US account for only 3% of chinese GDP

But the higher yuan affects all exports, not just the ones to the US.

China’s CPI way lower than other major economies in 2022: top planner

Chu Daye


By Published: Jan 12, 2023 08:46 PM

"China has effectively kept its consumer price index (CPI) at a low and steady range in contrast to the inflation seen in other major economies, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Thursday, expressing confidence that the nation can keep prices steady in 2023.

Through closely monitoring the prices of grain and energy, and improving the transport and distribution system for commodities, China was able to rein in the CPI at a time when runaway inflation was seen around the world, Wan Jinsong, an NDRC official, said at a press conference.

China kept the CPI below 3 percent every month in 2022, in sharp contrast to the US, which saw the CPI at 8 percent, and the eurozone, where the CPI surpassed 8 percent. China's CPI was also way lower than the UK's 9 percent, and the 7-10 percent figures seen in new emerging economies such as India, Brazil and South Africa, Wan said. The figures for these countries cover the January-November period.

China's 2022 CPI rose 2 percent year-on-year, a moderate growth rate, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday.

The NDRC said in 2022, the focus was put on monitoring and intervening when necessary in the prices of pork and coal, stabilizing market sentiment and reining in media outlets spreading groundless and inflammatory rumors.

China also worked to ramp up domestic energy production, natural gas in particular, to cope with high global energy prices, the agency said.

Li Changan, a professor from the University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times on Thursday that China's CPI was in part subdued by weak domestic demand in 2022.

The development of domestic circulation as the mainstay and the application of new technologies have also played a part in reducing inflationary pressures in China, Li said.

In the first 11 months of 2022, China's sub-CPI reading for water, electricity and fuel was up only about 3 percent year-on-year, while the reading was 27 percent in the US and 38 percent in the eurozone. China also saw markedly smaller rises in gasoline and diesel prices.

For the whole year, the food index rose by 2.8 percent, which was way lower than the figures of about 10 percent in the US and Europe, the NDRC said.

The retail prices for rice decreased by 1 percent year-on-year in 36 medium- and large-sized cities while that of flour rose by 3 percent.

The agency said it has made arrangements to secure supply and stable prices for the upcoming Spring Festival holidays and recent monitoring shows that supplies and prices of staple goods were adequate and stable.

The World Economic Forum published a report on Wednesday, highlighting the cost of living as the No.1 near term-risk in 2023.

The NDRC said despite the likelihood that global commodity prices will remain high, combined with the persistent pressure of imported inflation, China has a solid foundation to keep prices steady in 2023.

Li said domestic demand should rise this year following the nation's optimized epidemic response and this will push up the CPI.

Li expects the government to set its inflation target for 2023 at no higher than 3.5 percent."

http://Li said domestic demand should rise this year following the nation's optimized epidemic response and this will push up the CPI. Li expects the government to set its inflation target for 2023 at no higher than 3.5 percent


North America, Europe, Emerging countries or South East Asia?

Where's that chinky mRNA virus Hoohoo?

No? Nothing?

What a surprise.

No wonder people are leaving the country to get a proper vaccine.

GET READY for a business boost. Hong Kong is set to join the world’s biggest trading bloc.

RCEP economies. Image by Tiger/ Wikimedia Commons

The move means Hong Kong people will find tariff-free open doors for services and goods across Asia Pacific, the world’s fastest growing region, with a gross domestic product of US$38 trillion.

The southern Chinese city has applied for its own membership of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and is well placed to be accepted, said John Lee Ka-chiu, the city’s Chief Executive, speaking on TV show Friday Beyond Spotlights.

The move will make Hong Kong part of the biggest free trade deal in the world, representing a single market of nearly one third of humanity. The bloc is focused on Asia-Pacific but excludes the United States.


FULL- https://www.fridayeveryday.com/hong-kong-set-to-join-worlds-biggest-trading-bloc/

Originally Posted by pickel

But the higher yuan affects all exports, not just the ones to the US.

Only as long as all trade is done in dollars

The ability to conduct trade in different currencies provides a useful hedge against dollar dependency, and is very much a growing trend.
I can see it being an emerging concern for the US, because of it's massive addiction to debt. In future, it may have to borrow in other currencies as well as USD.

Originally Posted by Buckaroo Banzai

Only as long as all trade is done in dollars

Already in the process of dramatic change.
BRICS is taking care of that.
Fewer and fewer countries are hopping on the boat and minimalizing the U.S. dollar permanently.

Here we go, "the dollar is doooooomed" again.




Coming up: America is going to invade Iran.

It certainly isn't gonna invade China. Neither is the dollar doomed, just because it's virtual monopoly on international trade is being eroded. I don't reckon we are the perpetual doomsayers anyway- it's you boneheads- like China is doomed, Russia is doomed, Assad is doomed, Chavista's are doomed. In short, everything you are told not to like. Rhubarb.

Originally Posted by sabang

It certainly isn't gonna invade China. Neither is the dollar doomed, just because it's virtual monopoly on international trade is being eroded. I don't reckon we are the perpetual doomsayers anyway- it's you boneheads- like China is doomed, Russia is doomed, Assad is doomed, Chavista's are doomed. In short, everything you are told not to like. Rhubarb.

So America isn't going to invade Iran after all?

What about Ukraine? Is Russia going to invade Ukraine?

The old Thailand car rental companies might want to do a bit more checking than usual....

China: Five dead after man drives into crowd in Guangzhou



Chinese police have arrested a man who drove a car into pedestrians in Guangzhou, killing five people and injuring 13 others.

The incident has sparked widespread public outrage, with many accusing the man of deliberately targeting people.

Videos posted online show the driver getting out of the car and throwing banknotes into the air, shortly after the crash.

Police have detained the 22-year-old man and launched an investigation.

The crash took place on Wednesday during the evening rush hour at a busy junction in the southern city of 19 million.

"He deliberately drove into the people who were waiting for the traffic light. He rammed the car into them maliciously. After that, he made a U-turn and hit people again," an eyewitness told local outlet Hongxin News.

"He wasn't driving too quickly, but some people couldn't run away in time because they wouldn't have known he was hitting people deliberately."

The man also reportedly drove into a traffic police officer and his motorcycle, but the officer managed to escape.

One widely circulated clip shows a young girl lying on the ground at the scene of the incident, while a woman said to be her mother is seen by her side wailing.

Another eyewitness described the chaos of the aftermath on Weibo, the Chinese version of Twitter. The person said that an hour after the incident, the site was still filled with ambulances and traffic police "and they had not moved all the injured and the bodies from the scene".

"The scene was too tragic and I couldn't bear seeing it. I felt so sad that I wanted to throw up whenever I heard the siren of the ambulance," the person said.

The incident has sparked public anger, with many expressing sorrow that it happened in the lead-up to Chinese New Year, a time for family reunions.

"The victims could be a girl who dressed up meticulously to go on a date… It could be a food deliveryman who earned five yuan after rushing an order. It could be a father who wanted to go home and have dinner with children. It could be a child who was happily shopping," one Weibo user wrote.

Many noted that the man drove a luxury car and had thrown money into the air, and asked if he came from a rich and powerful family.

The incident quickly became a trending topic on Weibo on Wednesday, but it later disappeared from the "hot searches" list, leading users to accuse the platform of censorship.

There have been similar recent incidents. In February 2022, a driver ploughed a mini truck into people in the southern province of Fujian, killing three and injuring nine.

Earlier this week, a hotel guest in Shanghai deliberately drove his car into the lobby following an argument with staff. Nobody was injured in that incident.

China: Five dead after man drives into crowd in Guangzhou - BBC News

Well it looks like the next wave is on the way....

Surely we can call this the Xi variant now?

Some 900 million people in China have been infected with the coronavirus as of 11 January, according to a study by Peking University.

The report estimates that 64% of the country's population has the virus.

It ranks Gansu province, where 91% of the people are reported to be infected, at the top, followed by Yunnan (84%) and Qinghai (80%).

A top Chinese epidemiologist has also warned that cases will surge in rural China over the lunar new year.

Covid cases in China touch 900 million - study - BBC News

Originally Posted by sabang

^^ Iran is certainly not equivalent to 5/6th disarmed, much much smaller Iraq. How did that work out for ya? No, I really don't think so. Neither will you get Iran to disarm.

Ah yes Ukraine, another shining triumph of neo-con 'diplomacy'. Lets just call it a work in progress. Shame about Europe, shame about Ukraine.

^ I trust you are not saying 'China is doomed', because some alleged nutter drove a car into people, killing five. It's pretty tame, compared to US school shootings.

Jaysus did you really think I wanted to carry on listening to your drunken drivel?

This is the chinky thread you moron. What does US school shootings have to do with anything?

About the same as some nutter driving a car into a crowd has to do with "The View from China".

Originally Posted by sabang

About the same as some nutter driving a car into a crowd has to do with "The View from China".

Perhaps you should read the article. It covers public sentiment.

Surely that is the very definition of "The View from China"?

You stupid boy.

Damn Chinks....

From stable CPI to rosy local GDP targets, more signs show China’s fast economic rebound

Several economic indicators and other prominent signs on Thursday suggested that the Chinese economy is headed for a fast recovery and a world-leading growth rate in 2023, with latest inflation data showing price stability in 2022 despite huge pressure. As a result major local economic powerhouses in China have set rosy GDP growth targets for 2023 and there is also improving expectations for China's GDP growth this year from global firms and institutions.

All told, the world's second-largest economy is on track to become one of the fastest growing major economies in 2023, as many advanced economies are set to face serious slowdown and the global economy is "perilously close" to recession, according to various reports and economists, pointing to China's better-than-expected recovery from recent COVID-19 outbreaks.

Still, China's economy will face grim challenges and risks that the global economy as a whole will face, including elevated inflation and higher interest rates in some major economies like the US and rising economic and geopolitical tensions, which requires more effective measures to ensure stable economic operations, analysts noted.

Uplifting signs

Despite both internal and external pressure on prices, China's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 2 percent year-on-year in 2022, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday. While the consumer inflation rate accelerated in December to 1.8 percent from 1.6 percent in the previous month, the full-year CPI is well below China's target of around 3 percent set at the beginning of 2022.

Thanks to China's efforts to better coordinate epidemic response and economic and social development and the country's adoption of measures to ensure market supply and stabilize prices, prices remained generally stable, said Dong Lijuan, chief statistician with the NBS.

China's overall stable prices, in stark contrast to serious inflationary risks in the US and the euro zone, mean that "the country's monetary policy still has room to remain loose," Tian Yun, a Beijing-based economist, told the Global Times on Thursday.

China's sufficient room for monetary and fiscal policy to boost economic growth is also what's driving improvement in the country's economic outlook. China's central bank vowed earlier this month to use varied monetary policy tools to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in 2023, while aiming to ramp up financial support for domestic consumption to accelerate economic growth.

Also on Thursday, Shu Jueting, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), said that China's total import and export exceeded the $5 trillion and the $6 trillion marks in a row and the scale is expected to reach a new high in 2022. "China's foreign trade has withstood the test of major risks, showing strong resilience and vitality," Shu said, while noting the turmoil in the global economic and trade environment.

China's foreign trade still faces growing downward pressure with weakening external demand and falling orders, but judging from a group of trade firms tracked by the MOFCOM, due to a series of measures to boost trade, some positive signals have emerged and the situation of receiving orders in major exporting provinces has improved, Shu said.

He Weiwen, a senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, said various external risks, including US' crackdown measures against China, have led to a clear decline in China's exports, adding the export situation may be even more serious this year.

"Under various challenges, the country needs to vigorously support small and medium-sized enterprises, stimulate consumption, solve employment issues, and need more practical policies to deal with uncertainties," He told the Global Times on Thursday.

In fact, domestic consumption is what Chinese policymakers count on for boosting overall economic growth, with the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2022, which mapped policy priorities for 2023, stressed an emphasis on boosting domestic consumption. And given China's better-than-expected recovery from the epidemic, many are also expecting a faster consumption recovery.

Shougang Park in Beijing held a New Year countdown event on December 31, 2022, with a light show and some artistic performances. Ten minutes before the arrival of 2023, a screen began to light up the celebration picture of "Happy New Year" and the crowd started counting down to welcome the New Year. Photo: Li Hao/GT
Beyond expectations

Tian said that many places across the country have returned to pre-pandemic normalcy in areas such as car and foot traffic and tourism. "In fact, as I have said it before, this is actually beyond expectations," he said.

Likely boosted by such a fast recovery, many Chinese local economic powerhouses have set high GDP growth targets for 2023. As of Thursday, many local governments, including that of Shanghai, East China's Fujian and Jiangxi, have released their 2023 GDP growth targets, with all setting a GDP growth rate of 5.5 percent or above, Xinhua reported on Thursday.

While these targets come after a low base in 2022, they are still reflective of the growing expectation and confidence in a faster GDP growth rate in 2023, given the size of these local economies, analysts said. That also mirrors China's overall economic outlook this year, in that the Chinese economy will see a faster rate this year due to both a low base last year as well as its recovery pace, they noted.

While some foreign financial institutions have remained rather cautious and even pessimistic about China's prospect, their forecasts for China's GDP growth in 2023 are also much better than that of other major economies.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the World Bank forecast that China's economy will grow at 4.3 percent in 2023, 0.9 percentage point below its previous forecast six months ago. However, the downgrade of China's growth rate is much smaller compared to a 1.3-percentage-point cut to the forecast for global growth and a 1.9-percentage-point cut for the US.

Chinese economists said that the World Bank and other foreign institutions make their predictions based on the new epidemic situation that started in November. However, the pace of China's recovery from the epidemic in terms of economic activities has exceeded expectations.

The World Bank's downgrading of China's GDP growth is based on the spread of the Omicron variant in China in the last quarter of 2022; however, given the recovery pace, China's economy could reach a growth rate of 5.5 percent in 2023, if there were no "extreme factors" like worsened epidemic situation and escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times on Thursday.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202301/1283711.shtml


The View from China seems pretty rosy right now.

many local governments, including that of Shanghai, East China's Fujian and Jiangxi, have released their 2023 GDP growth targets, with all setting a GDP growth rate of 5.5 percent or above, Xinhua reported on Thursday.

Fascinating. Wonder how they'll do that? More bailouts?

*titter*

The controversial loan restructuring of a troubled state-owned company in one of China’s most indebted provinces reflects long-running credit problems facing various regions across the country, and analysts warn that this could be merely the tip of the iceberg when it comes to local governments’ mounting debt piles.

Analysts say the 20-year loan rollover is relatively rare, and that new interests payable on the loans are lower than current market rates, raising concerns about how far the banking sector has to go in handling the blow from cash-strapped LGFVs that are not able to repay loans.

Laura Li, a senior director at Standard & Poors Global Ratings, said such sizeable loan-restructuring deals would not be able to go through if not sponsored by local governments.

“The company has run into severe financial distress, after years of aggressive debt-funded investments with very poor cash-flow generation for debt servicing, and its financing access keeps deteriorating,” Li said.

“The loan tenor is extended for a long time, 20 years, implying a much more conservative estimate over cash-flow recovery and long-term growth of the LGFV and its government owner.”

Zunyi Road said that it would pay off only the interest on the loans during the first 10 years, with the principal repaid in phases over the following decade. Annual interest on the loans was adjusted to between 3 and 4.5 per cent.

<snip>

GF Securities analysed 123 other LGFVs – located across 15 provinces, and with similar debt valuations to Zunyi Road as of December 31 – and found that the size of their interest-bearing debt totalled 1.49 trillion yuan with a total of 389.64 billion yuan in listed bonds, of which 187.04 billion yuan will mature and may be repaid in full principal in 2023.

As such, these LGFVs are likely to seek support from financial institutions and local governments, GF Securities said in a note on Thursday.

China debt: distressed state-owned financing vehicles eye long-term restructuring, even as ‘default is the easiest choice’ | South China Morning Post

Originally Posted by panama hat

fro

Almost happy ?

Good to see

Trade between China and ASEAN grows 15% in 2022, first year of RCEP’s enforcement

First year of RCEP enforcement brings regional industrial chain closer


By GT staff reporters Published: Jan 13, 2023 10:42 PM

Sales staff shows durian imported from Thailand. Photo: VCG


"China has witnessed a year-on-year trade increase of 15 percent with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2022, the first year the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) went into effect, and the region continues to hold the position of China's top trade partner.

Chinese experts said that the effective implementation of RCEP has been an important driving force behind the stable growth, and further growth in trade is expected, supported by the giant potential.

China's imports and exports to ASEAN came to 6.52 trillion yuan ($970 billion) in 2022, a significant increase of 15 percent. Of this, exports made up 3.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.7 percent, and imports made up 2.73 trillion yuan, up 6.8 percent, data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) showed on Friday.

Lü Daliang, spokesperson of the GAC, attributed the growth to the effect brought by the RCEP, which has pushed the industrial chain closer.

The very beginning of 2023 marks the first anniversary of the entry into force of the RCEP. With one year on, the RCEP agreement has shown great vitality, effectively boosting trade among member countries and benefiting the regional economy.

Over the past year, the agreement has lowered the cost of trade and facilitated the integration of industrial chains, and Chinese experts said its enforcement has helped the recovery of the Asia-Pacific economy, offsetting headwinds from sluggish global demand and other factors.

ASEAN is an important trading partner of China in RCEP. In 2022, China's trade with ASEAN accounted for 50.3 percent of the scale of imports and exports to other RCEP member countries, customs data showed, of which China's trade in intermediate products to ASEAN came to 4.36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2 percent, accounting for 67 percent of the total trade value between China and ASEAN.

Lü said the continuous advancement of facility interconnection has made trade exchanges easier, which also drives trade growth with ASEAN.

In 2022, China's imports and exports to ASEAN by railway, waterway and air increased by 197.6 percent, 26.7 percent and 15.5 percent respectively. In particular, the opening of the China-Laos Railway to traffic at the end of 2021 has provided new impetus for further cooperation between China and related countries.

In 2022, among the goods transported by China between ASEAN by railway, the proportion of goods transported by the China-Laos railway jumped to 44.7 percent, and the contribution made to the growth of imports and exports by railway between China and ASEAN exceeded 60 percent, customs data showed.

Lü added that the deepening of cooperation in agricultural products also promotes the expansion of imports.

China has accelerated the pace of imports of agricultural products from ASEAN members and continued to optimize quarantine access procedures for key agricultural products. Various agricultural products including fresh durian from Vietnam, fresh longan from Cambodia, and passion fruit from Laos have gained new quarantine access in China.

In 2022, China imported 246.86 billion yuan of agricultural products from ASEAN, a year-on-year increase of 21.3 percent, accounting for 15.7 percent of China's import and export value of agricultural products during the same period, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous year.

China said it will allow imports of durian from the Philippines after the product meets certain requirements, read a statement on the official WeChat account of GAC on Monday.

Building a more robust bilateral relationship between China and ASEAN members will help further enhance the level of multilateral cooperation between the two sides, Xu Ningning, executive president of the China-ASEAN Business Council, told the Global Times in an earlier interview.

Chinese companies are busy grabbing the opportunities provided by ASEAN. On January 5, South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region sent out its first business delegation in nearly three years since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. The delegation will visit a number of ASEAN members including Cambodia, Malaysia and Singapore."

Trade between China and ASEAN grows 15% in 2022, first year of RCEP’s enforcement - Global Times