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  1. #26
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    Reversion to the Mean. Doesn't look like anytime soon frankly- I would estimate Chinese GDP will exceed that of the USA by 35%+ before that becomes a factor. But growth rates will most definitely slow over time.

    Looking at the graph, notice how the rate of GDP growth accelerated around 1992- that's the year I moved to HK! But na- it was the Deng factor. A man small in stature, but possibly the most significant person of the 20th century. Long March survivor too.
    Last edited by sabang; 30-04-2021 at 01:05 PM.

  2. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Reversion to the Mean. Doesn't look like anytime soon frankly- I would estimate Chinese GDP will exceed that of the USA by 35%+ before that becomes a factor. But growth rates will most definitely slow over time.

    Looking at the graph, notice how the rate of GDP growth accelerated around 1992- that's the year I moved to HK! But na- it was the Deng factor. A man small in stature, but possibly the most significant person of the 20th century. Long March survivor too.
    If Mao were to come back from the dead, I wonder how he'd feel about Deng's accomplishments and Xi's current trajectory. Oh, and all that social Darwinism.

  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by HermantheGerman View Post
    Our press is not controlled by the government like your favorite countries Russia, China or Cuba (100%).
    Did you mean it while speaking tongue-in-cheek? (Or which press do you refer to as "our"?)

    Is Facebook so eager to ‘get Russia’ by banning RT’s Redfish that it’s defending… fascism and Auschwitz?
    30.4.2021
    When posts celebrating the fall of Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler, or the liberation of Auschwitz, are censored for violating Facebook’s “community standards,” perhaps there’s something deeply wrong with that community.
    Just saying.

    On Friday, Facebook deleted the page of Redfish, an award-winning Berlin-based digital content project affiliated with RT. In a template message sent to Redfish, Facebook said the post featuring the upside-down portrait of the Italian fascist dictator merited the third “strike” against the page, which had more than 830,000 followers.

    Previously, Redfish got a strike for photos of Auschwitz survivors, which violated taboos on “nudity and sexual activity.”

    Is Facebook so eager to ‘get Russia’ by banning RT’s Redfish that it’s defending… fascism and Auschwitz? — RT Op-ed

    Quote Originally Posted by HermantheGerman View Post
    By the way, H. Schmidt already "openly" discussed (1975) and told the rest of the world what huge potential lies within China.
    BTW, when you are hiding behind the last decent German Chancellor - who knew how to call the things by their right names - and who surely would not be happy to read your ranting obsessed with Russia - in one of his last TV interviews, when asked whether Germany could play a leading role in EU, he said something like:
    And whether anyone wants to hear it or not, the terrible mechanized murders of 6 million Jews, Hitler's world war, all lie heavily in the deep subconscious of European nations. And that heavy burden precludes Germany's leading role in governing Europe."

  4. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    Because it is a very well written, thought provoking article
    I agree. The writer suggests genetics. The author has a reputation. I suggest that availably of food created the critical up or down performance of families.

    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    “It is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able to adapt to and to adjust best to the changing environment in which it finds itself”
    Agree.

    Old Charles was speaking of species but pretty much same for nations and forms of government.
    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    China's "adapting" as blatant theft of foreign intellectual property without which its "adjustment" would be far less spectacular...or, indeed, threatening...
    If China was the only society to progress by adapting treasure, however found, acquired or invented you would have some credence. Unfortunately somebody suggested, "To the winner goes the spoils" millennia ago.

    Quote Originally Posted by HermantheGerman View Post
    I think you seem to forget that we live in a democracy and we openly discuss and criticize people, government, and wars
    Quote Originally Posted by HermantheGerman View Post
    Our press is not controlled by the government like your favorite countries Russia, China or Cuba (100%).
    No censorship by governments or media where you reside, right.

    Quote Originally Posted by HermantheGerman View Post
    The children of the Red Empero's" are so still far behind China and the rest of the world.
    The Children of the Yellow Emperor-cool-jpg

    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    For perspective ...
    Here is a graph illustrating rise and fall of various countries with GDP - PPP data, from the early 1800's.

    Obviously if from 1800 BC to present times China would focus even more prominently and illustrates ameristans fleeting provenance.

    Last edited by OhOh; 01-05-2021 at 02:53 PM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  5. #30
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    Some may also be interested in the history of Asia from 2000 BCE. The appearance of "China" in 1800 BCE.


  6. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by pickel View Post
    The world needs to give China a big fuck off, and the sooner it happens the less damage will be done.
    There are 2. Which one should be given the fuck off.

  7. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...nicely neutral and vaguely scientific language that avoids defining China's "adapting" as blatant theft of foreign intellectual property without which its "adjustment" would be far less spectacular...or, indeed, threatening...
    As mentioned above there are 2 China's. Betting you refer that blatant ripoff China is the PRC. I went to Shanghai in 1997 to help set up automotive dealerships. Was the start of a 50/50 deal between a US and Chinese company. No blatant rip offs in my experience. Technology and know how was given in return for 50% share. The US company has done very well out of it I may add.

    Then there is the other China, the ROC. They like the Japanese produced a bunch of cheap copies of western goods for years. Improved over the years and now are suppliers of products which have surpassed quality and sales of a good many western nations.

    Then, we have Singapore. More of those bloody children of the yellow emperor. Not much ripping off going on there is there?

    The US has more to learn from the yellow emperor than most western nations but as I mentioned, providing and improving education beyond 12 years is one of most importance. No doubt Biden knows about another child of the yellow emperor.

    If a ruler desires to transform the people and perfect their customs, the ruler can only do so through education! (Xueji I).
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.

  8. #33

  9. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by pickel View Post
    You know which China I meant Norts.
    Of course I did. Is there IP theft in the PRC? You bet. How much, I personally don't know but if 1 in 5 US companies say they have had IP stolen, as good a number as any. Questions I would ask are, which Chinese companies in specific and which have been convicted in any trade court?

  10. #35
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    "The children of the Yellow Emperor seem destined to play an enormous role in Mankind’s future."

    That doesn't strike me as particularly visionary, more blindingly obvious. The big question is what that role will be.

    The China of Deng looked like steadily evolving into a leading world power within a generally shared framework. The China of Xi looks very different, happy to pick fights with its neighbours, teaching its population the concept of 'revenge' for things like the 'unequal treaties' and the 'Eight Nation Alliance" at the summer palace incident, all over a century ago, developing the sort of nationalism that is reminiscent of other countries of the 1930s - and that didn't turn out well.

    Three very big questions for the century ahead, not in any particular order of difficulty:

    1. China
    2. Islam
    3. Water

    All in the 'too hard' box.

  11. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    The big question is what that role will be
    Hopefully an improvement on the last empire. Although that wouldn't be difficult.

  12. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Hopefully an improvement on the last empire. Although that wouldn't be difficult.
    The Empire isn't finished yet.

    We are doing an encore.



    Keeping naval order in East Asia since 1839 and coming to a port near you soon.



  13. #38
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    A safe homecoming for all aboard.

  14. #39
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    Thought this an interesting read.

    China already ‘engaging in irregular war’ with US in the ‘grey zone’


    Experts say a China war is already well under way with the United States but Australia needs to take advantage of its obvious weakness.

    It’s war. But not as we know it.


    Decades of writings by China’s top tacticians reveal this to be so.


    “National security leaders should look closely at what Chinese officials’ words and China’s military actions say about how the People’s Liberation Army might actually fight a war,” a US military academy analysis warns.


    They say it’s a war already well under way. That means the start of any ‘conventional’ conflict will be murky and confused. And, even once the shooting starts, sowing doubt and disbelief will be a significant weapon in its arsenal.


    It will involve police.


    It will involve militias.


    It will involve civilians.


    And all will serve to pave the way for the People’s Liberation Army’s more traditional weapons to find its target.

    It’s called the “Grey Zone”.


    It’s the space between peace and war.


    It’s where coercion, intimidation, propaganda and manipulation are at play.



    “Democracies’ fear of escalation is a significant deterrent against the use of violent military options in the grey zone, and that is exactly the fear that authoritarian states … wish to instil,” wrote retired British army colonel Richard Kemp.


    It’s about twisting democratic values – such as the rule of law – against itself.


    “The PLA is engaging in irregular warfare today,” the West Point paper asserts. “China is employing lawfare to achieve strategic aims. The maritime militia is enforcing China’s sovereignty claims in the East and South China Seas against US partners and allies.”


    And it has already weaponised international information flows and channels of influence, along with cyber, economic – and psychological – tactics.



    Divide and conquer


    “Russia and China plan on winning the Great Power Competition by undermining the US, sowing discord, and continuing a secret war until the positions in the world order are reversed,” an essay by US navy analyst Derek Bernsen argues.
    Polarisation. Conspiracy. Hate.


    They already exist. But a few well-placed social media posts and complicit “influencers” can nudge them in beneficial directions.


    “Many elements of irregular warfare, such as psychological warfare, legal warfare, and cyberwarfare, are central to the PLA’s concept of information warfare and its theory of victory in a conventional conflict,” the Modern Warfare Institute analysis argues.


    Beijing’s military has a name for it: The Three Warfares.


    Public opinion. Morale. Legal processes.


    All are manipulated to achieve Beijing’s ends.

    The purpose is to “stifle criticism of the Chinese Communist Party, spread positive views of China (and influence governments) in ways favourable to China”.


    The outcome is to sow discontent and confusion ahead of any direct conflict.

    “In the run-up to and during a conflict, we would expect Chinese forces to ramp up these efforts, especially against nations hosting US forces,” the West Point think-tank warns. “China could promote narratives about US military abuses of a local population, some exaggerated and some imagined, to turn the population against its government’s support to the United States.”


    The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) agrees.


    “There is also a lucrative market of influence-for-hire service providers, to which state actors can outsource propaganda distribution and influence campaigns to obfuscate their activities,” a new ASPI report reads. “These commercial actors are increasingly part of the fabric of political campaigning in many countries. However, the lack of transparency around these activities risks corrupting the quality of democracy in the environments in which they operate.”



    Coercive diplomacy

    How do you win friends, influence governments – and eliminate dissent?


    In the case of Beijing, Chairman Mao Zedong’s idea of “magic weapons” plays a role.


    Specifically – weaponised stories.


    “The genius is that these narratives condition us to accept Chinese policies meekly even if they are against our national interests,” argues United States Studies Centre analyst Dr John Lee.


    No matter how outlandish any particular claim, argument or quote may be – they must reinforce five essential messages. Simple repetition embeds it in the public consciousness.


    1. China is a historically dominant civilisation.


    2. The Chinese Communist Party is permanent and unchanging.

    3. Nothing can deter Beijing.


    4. China is prepared to pay any price to achieve its core objectives.


    5. The US is in a terminal state of decline.


    “If we accept these propositions, the motivation for regional states to resist or counter even the most coercive policies is greatly diminished even if we profoundly disagree with China’s behaviour,” Dr Lee writes.


    “Indeed, the message from Beijing underlying the cascading threats against Australia is that we would do better to make the best of this imminent Sino-centric future – as New Zealand apparently is doing – than fight against it.”


    It’s about the temptation of winning the biggest slice by signing up early.


    But not all is as it seems.


    “China and the CCP have weaknesses, vulnerabilities and dependencies that have been carefully and cleverly concealed to perpetuate the preferred narrative,” Dr Lee writes.



    Political attrition


    Beijing is trying to grind down its neighbours.


    Relentless pressure is employed on its borders with India, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam.


    Military aircraft, warships, fishing militia, sand-dredging and even housing estates are all part of Beijing’s power play.


    No shots have been fired. But every incursion demands a response. Otherwise, it’s a tacit victory for Beijing.
    Either way, China wins.


    For example, Taiwan’s small and ageing air force cannot intercept every aggressive probe from the mainland. “We are considering the war of attrition issue,” Taiwan’s deputy defence minister Chang Che-ping told parliament last month.

    “China’s never presenting any overt military threat with this, but it’s clearly steadily eating away at Taiwan’s military readiness and affecting the balance of power,” Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analyst Greg Poling said.


    The Philippines is still struggling to find ways to oust a fake fishing fleet from its territorial waters.


    “We hope the Philippines will look at this objectively and correctly, immediately stop wanton hype … and avoid casting negative influence on bilateral relations and the overall peace and stability in the South China Sea,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said.

    As if it was Manila’s fault.


    Meanwhile, India’s striving to challenge the advance of every Chinese platoon high in the Himalayas. And Japan is wondering what to do about the ever-increasing number of deceptively named Chinese Coast Guard ships in its waters.


    “Beijing never really presents you with a clear deadline with a reason to use force. You just find yourselves worn down and slowly pushed back,” Mr Poling said.


    Digital disruption


    “The first shots of this war happened years ago,” Mr Bernsen argues. “Information warfare provides the perfect mechanism to erode US power without resorting to direct conflict.”


    A Russian cyber attack on the US Department of Defence in 1999 cost the nation millions of dollars and exposed a damaging trove of data.


    “Yet there was no retaliation from the US. This lack of retaliation showed Russia that it could conduct information warfare against the US with impunity.”


    China saw this, and seized the opportunity.


    Last year, New Delhi accused Beijing of a cyber attack that cut power in India’s biggest city.


    Such ‘unrestricted warfare’ is designed to win a fight before any shooting starts.


    But it’s not all about sabotage.


    It’s also about espionage.


    Beijing “no longer sees utility in the conventional ‘people’s war’ approach, which involved human-wave attacks in land-centric battles,” the MWI argues. “The PLA is now preparing to fight concurrently across multiple domains, is focused on winning what it calls ‘informationised wars,’ and takes information superiority as the driver of operational planning.”


    That means stealing intellectual property.


    That means digital disruption.


    That means propaganda.

    “Information warfare, combined with political and economic acts of aggression, comprises the majority of actions between the United States and Russia, and the United States and China,” Mr Bernsen says.


    “Cyber and information operations also have the advantage in difficulty of attribution. A sublimely executed information warfare operation would erase its own tracks and sow doubt about whether it even happened, or spread misinformation about an operation that did – or didn’t – happen.”



    Pushing the limits


    Militias. Partisans. Mercenaries. These have long been used to offer an air of ‘implausible deniability’ in international conflict.


    Beijing has embraced the idea.


    It has also formalised the concept.


    It has established the People’s Armed Police (PAP), along with the better-known Maritime Militia.


    The militia is Beijing’s ‘grey zone’ force for asserting Communist Party control over its commercial fishing fleet – and dominance over contested territories.


    “These actions fit a recent pattern of Chinese leaders turning to irregular warfare to achieve strategic aims in the South China Sea: China sends its maritime militia to a location in the South China Sea to reinforce Chinese sovereignty claims and then ratchets up control with little involvement by conventional forces,” the West Point IWM essay argues.


    It puts opposing nations – such as Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia – off-side. They face a propaganda barrage if warships are deployed in response. And there’s the risk of giving Beijing an excuse for escalation.


    And, once the shooting starts, these nominally civilian units will have a role.


    “Chinese writers discuss a number of wartime missions for the maritime militia, such as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), counter-ISR, sabotage, anti-aircraft missions, raiding and electronic warfare,” the IWM report warns. “Irregular warfare activities are so fully integrated with conventional tactics and operations that they are not identified as ‘irregular’.”

    China warns war with US will not be conventional conflict

  15. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    Decades of writings by China’s top tacticians reveal this to be so.
    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    It will involve police.


    It will involve militias.


    It will involve civilians.
    The Children of the Yellow Emperor-water-balloon-popping-slow-motion-170954-a

    Bubble popping fun.

    "Details of confirmed usage reveal this to be so."

    Some recent examples of national occurrences, ongoing usage:

    China:

    police on the streets - No

    Armed militias on the streets - No

    civilians -on the streets - No

    Illegal sanction usage - No

    Ameristan:

    police on the streets - Yes

    Armed militias on the streets - Yes

    civilians -on the streets - Yes

    Illegal sanction usage - Yes

    UK:

    police on the streets - Yes

    Armed militias on the streets - No

    civilians -on the streets - Yes

    Illegal sanction usage - Yes

    France:

    police on the streets - Yes

    Armed militias on the streets - No

    civilians -on the streets - Yes

    Germany:

    police on the streets - Yes

    Armed militias on the streets - No

    civilians -on the streets - Yes

    Illegal sanction usage - Yes

    Holland:

    police on the streets - Yes

    Armed militias on the streets - No

    civilians -on the streets - Yes

    Illegal sanction usage - Yes

    Italy:

    police on the streets - Yes

    Armed militias on the streets - No

    civilians -on the streets - Yes

    Illegal sanction usage - Yes

    Thailand

    police on the streets - Yes

    Armed militias on the streets - No

    civilians -on the streets - Yes

    Illegal sanction usage - No

    .....


    I would suggest all the above have paper, audio, visual and digital media, some of which supports the actions and those that don't.

    The exceptional country, You decide.
    Last edited by OhOh; 04-05-2021 at 12:00 PM.

  16. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    As if it was Manila’s fault.
    The uneducated spokesman should:

    1. Read and understand that, UCLOS does not define sovereignty.

    2. The Permanent Court of Arbitration, is nothing to do with the UN and is/was not able to announce a legal decision with regard to the Phillipine v Chins SCS case.

    3. Refrain from stoking unnecessary problems for it's citizens
    Last edited by OhOh; 04-05-2021 at 12:02 PM.

  17. #42
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    That was a waste of your time to do comparisons when you messed up the first one!

    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    China:

    police on the streets - No

    Armed militias on the streets - No

    civilians -on the streets - No






    Bubble burst.

  18. #43
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    The US speaks of 'Full Spectrum Dominance' and garrisons the planet with literally hundreds of military bases. I think many of it's older generations, at least, still believe in this bullshit of 'manifest destiny' and the 'indispensable country'- that somehow it is 'Gods country'. Frankly I find that rhetoric, and belief, a lot more alarming than Chinese rhetoric. Then of course there are the results- who have the Chinese invaded? How many foreigners have the Chinese killed, or bombed? How many foreign governments have they overthrown, or are actively plotting to do so? Yet we in the west speak of their BRI as if it is some kind of hostile invasion! The Murdoch press here in oz is even spruiking war with China- honestly, I think the old bastard wants it.

    In contrast, the Chinese merely have an inalienable certainty in their own genetic, societal, moral and political superiority. They certainly have the runs on the board this century to feed that belief- just as the USA did for a good deal of the last century, and I suppose the brits for the century before hat. Pride cometh before a fall. Whatever suspicions one may have about their evil intentions, the spectacular rise of China since Deng has certainly been peaceful by historical standards. This is not to deny their 'peaceful bullying' in the Sth China Sea, or the ongoing Taiwanese question.

    Plain fact is, I do not think there is anything the USA, or Nato, can do to stop this juggernaut short of MAD scenarios. Putting ourselves on this constant 'semi-war' footing with them is not the best way forward. It is the US, not China, that needs attitude adjustment right now.
    Last edited by sabang; 04-05-2021 at 07:04 PM.

  19. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post


    For decades, Hong Kong enjoyed one of the most free-market, nearly anarcho-libertarian economic systems; during that same period, Singapore was governed by the tight hand of Lee Kuan Yew and his socialistic People’s Action Party, which built a one-party state with a large degree of government guidance and control. Yet both these populations were overwhelmingly Chinese, and both experienced almost equally rapid economic development, moving in 50 years from total postwar destitution and teeming refugee slums to ranking among the wealthiest places on earth. And Taiwan, whose much larger Chinese-ancestry population pursued an intermediate development model, enjoyed similar economic success.

    Sorry, this is a joke right? Hong Kong and Singapore. Hmmm. Cannot think of anything else they have in common besides a Chinese populace.

  20. #45
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    There is most certainly a difference in Chinese ethnicity and mainland Chinese. If I think about Chinese dominance in the world, Taiwanese, Singaporeans, Hong Kongers, and ethnically Chinese people who have assimilated in other countries aren’t the problem.

  21. #46
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    ^^ Not sure of your point- the excerpt you quoted does point out their very different political systems, and old Asia hands know first hand the people are very different too.

    Singapore could be described as a welfare or nanny state, HK anything but. I can think of a couple of things they have in common besides a Chinese population though:-


    • Both trade entrepots, and city states of a sort. Trading ports, basically. Financial centres too.
    • Both ex British colonies, with the Judicial system and Civil administration that came with it
    • Both are successful, and affluent.
    • Educational systems- based on brit model (but better these days) not their genetic homeland


    ^ The 'problem' as the West sees it, is the rise of China. Isn't this based on a somewhat racist assumption of western, or 'White' superiority though? And a thoroughly smug assumption of this being forever? My own interpretation of history perceives the recent rise of China as more of an inevitability actually- or perhaps it's centuries long slump as an historic aberration.
    Last edited by sabang; 04-05-2021 at 07:53 PM.

  22. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    The 'problem' as the West sees it, is the rise of China
    The problem is not the rise of China but the rise of totalitarianism.

    Some believe that western democracy, as flawed and unwieldy a work in progress as it may seem at times, is still the species' greatest achievement in the field of social organisation to date and it needs to be defended against attack, even where that attack is a by stealthy encroachment.

  23. #48
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    China is authoritarian, but certainly not totalitarian.

    What the Chinese system has taught me is that, like our own democratic system of governance, it can adapt to and inculcate Change. Totalitarian systems, such as dictatorship & absolute Monarchy, cannot. The changes there have been enormous- and successful. I had previously thought this was a democratic monopoly- and thus our great advantage.

    Our system seems to have somewhat lost it's mojo, at least for now. Excessive PC and cancel culture seem to be turning us into a mediocrity, rather than a meritocracy. We have also become unabashedly oligarchic- our democracy is biased in favour of existing wealth and corporations more than at any other time I can name in democratic history. Unhealthy trends imo.

  24. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    That was a waste of your time to do comparisons when you messed up the first one!
    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Some recent examples of national occurrences, ongoing usage:
    Yes, "Examples of ongoing national occurrences", would be more precise.

    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    Bubble burst.
    Your first video requires a sign in. Which makes it unclear to me what you are implying.

    Militia

    My understanding of, "militia", was "lethally armed citizens groups that forment and perform military acts outside the law".

    Illustrated by "news" broadcasts like this:



    Which reinforces my post. No bubble popped.

    However.

    It appears the official definition is "a military force whose members are trained soldiers but who often have other jobs:".

    https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dic...nglish/militia

    In the UK there are "The Army Reserves". Citizens attend training and exercises on a part-time basis, but are utilised under army rules of engagement.

    https://www.army.mod.uk/who-we-are/the-army-reserve/

    Which suggest the common usage of the word, "militia", by some media is incorrect.

    Being of UK origin, where "lethally armed citizens groups formenting and performing military acts outside the law" to my knowledge don't exist.

    Your second video suggests the correct definition of the term, as it definatly does your second.

    I hope you will forgive my misunderstanding.
    Last edited by OhOh; 04-05-2021 at 09:37 PM.

  25. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    This is not to deny their 'peaceful bullying' in the Sth China Sea,
    The ASEAN + 3 members are allegedly actively engaged in formulating agreed procedures to manage inter-country disputes.

    Quote Originally Posted by sabang View Post
    the ongoing Taiwanese question.
    Is being encouraged by outside forces.

    China has no reason to invade. As we have seen previously the two parts of China can and have had, good working relationships.

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