Thread: China v India - what could possibly go wrong

We have all seen the spat between China and India in their border regions, well if this news is to be believed China are tunring up the heat.

China's plans for Himalayan super dam stoke fears in India


BEIJING: China is planning a mega dam in Tibet able to produce triple the electricity generated by the Three Gorges -- the world's largest power station -- stoking fears among environmentalists and in neighbouring India.

The structure will span the Brahmaputra River before the waterway leaves the Himalayas and flows into India, straddling the world's longest and deepest canyon at an altitude of more than 1,500 metres (4,900 feet).

The project in Tibet's Medog County is expected to dwarf the record-breaking Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in central China, and is billed as able to produce 300 billion kilowatts of electricity each year.

It is mentioned in China's strategic 14th Five-Year Plan, unveiled in March at an annual rubber-stamp congress of the country's top lawmakers.

But the plan was short on details, a timeframe or budget.

The river, known as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibetan, is also home to two other projects far upstream, while six others are in the pipeline or under construction.

The "super-dam" however is in a league of its own.
Last October, the Tibet local government signed a "strategic cooperation agreement" with PowerChina, a public construction company specialising in hydroelectric projects.

A month later the head of PowerChina, Yan Zhiyong, partially unveiled the project to the Communist Youth League, the youth wing of China's ruling party.

Enthusiastic about "the world's richest region in terms of hydroelectric resources", Yan explained that the dam would draw its power from the huge drop of the river at this particular section.

- 'Really bad idea' -

Beijing may justify the massive project as an environmentally-friendly alternative to fossil fuels, but it risks provoking strong opposition from environmentalists in the same way as the Three Gorges Dam, built between 1994 and 2012.

The Three Gorges created a reservoir and displaced 1.4 million inhabitants upstream.
"Building a dam the size of the super-dam is likely a really bad idea for many reasons," said Brian Eyler, energy, water and sustainability program director at the Stimson Center, a US think tank.

Besides being known for seismic activity, the area also contains a unique biodiversity. The dam would block the migration of fish as well as sediment flow that enriches the soil during seasonal floods downstream, said Eyler.

There are both ecological and political risks, noted Tempa Gyaltsen Zamlha, an environmental policy specialist at the Tibet Policy Institute, a think tank linked to the Tibetan government-in-exile based in Dharamshala, India.

"We have a very rich Tibetan cultural heritage in those areas, and any dam construction would cause ecological destruction, submergence of parts of that region," he told AFP.

"Many local residents would be forced to leave their ancestral homes," he said, adding that the project will encourage migration of Han Chinese workers that "gradually becomes a permanent settlement".

- 'Water wars' -

New Delhi is also worried by the project.

The Chinese Communist Party is effectively in a position to control the origins of much of South Asia's water supply, analysts say.
"Water wars are a key component of such warfare because they allow China to leverage its upstream Tibet-centred power over the most essential natural resource," wrote political scientist Brahma Chellaney last month in the Times of India.

The risks of seismic activity would also make it a "ticking water bomb" for residents downstream, he warned.
In reaction to the dam idea, the Indian government has floated the prospect of building another dam on the Brahmaputra to shore up its own water reserves.

"There is still much time to negotiate with China about the future of the super-dam and its impacts," said Eyler.
"A poor outcome would see India build a dam downstream."

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2098331/chinas-plans-for-himalayan-super-dam-stoke-fears-in-india

Originally Posted by strigils

if they restrict the flow of the Brahmaputra India will react

List of dams on the Brahmaputra River - Wikipedia

...........

And:
International cooperation[edit]

The waters of the River Brahmaputra are shared by China, India, and Bangladesh. In the 1990s and 2000s, there was repeated speculation that mentioned Chinese plans to build a dam at the Great Bend, with a view to diverting the waters to the north of the country. This has been denied by the Chinese government for many years.^[26] At the Kathmandu Workshop of Strategic Foresight Group in August 2009 on Water Security in the Himalayan Region, which brought together in a rare development leading hydrologists from the basin countries, the Chinese scientists argued that it was not feasible for China to undertake such a diversion.^[27] However, on 22 April 2010, China confirmed that it was indeed building the Zangmu Dam on the Brahmaputra in Tibet,^[26] but assured India that the project would not have any significant effect on the downstream flow to India.^[28] This claim has also been reiterated by the Government of India, in an attempt to assuage domestic criticism of Chinese dam construction on the river, but is one that remains hotly debated.^[29] Recent years have seen an intensification of grassroots opposition, especially in the state of Assam, against Chinese upstream dam building, as well as growing criticism of the Indian government for its perceived failure to respond appropriately to Chinese hydropower plans.^[30]
In a meeting of scientists at Dhaka at 2010, 25 leading experts from the basin countries issued a Dhaka Declaration on Water Security^[31] calling for the exchange of information in low-flow periods, and other means of collaboration. Even though the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention does not prevent any of the basin countries from building a dam upstream, customary law offers some relief to the lower riparian countries. There is also the potential for China, India, and Bangladesh to cooperate on transboundary water navigation.

Dams cause initial problems:

Building and filling them can cause interruptions in flows.

Some locals will need relocating.

Treaties need to be signed stipulating the % of available water to down stream countries.

The dam filling schedule needs agreement.

Dams during their operation phase:

Agreements on operations and communications between affected countries agreed

Fish number availability, harvest and restocking sizes agreed.

Water release volumes, maximum and minimum, dependent on rainfall agreed.

All the concerns are nothing new. Countries have been building dams for millennia. Most seem to be meeting their projected goals without concern. One on the River Nile is not.

World hydroelectric dam numbers:

In the world there are:

"62,500 power plants (hydroelectric dams)

An estimated 62,500 power plants are operating around the world, with a total installed generating capacity of more than 6,000 gigawatts (GW) in 2015. The nine largest operating power plants in the world by capacity are all hydroelectric power plants."

Number of hydro-electric dams - google search.

"According to the World Commission on Dams in 2000, there were 22,104 dams over the height of 15 m (49 ft) operating in China. Of the world's total large dams, China accounts for the most – 20 percent of them; 45 percent of which are used for irrigation. Accordingly, the oldest in China still in use belongs to the Dujiangyan Irrigation System which dates back to 256 BC."

List of dams and reservoirs in China - Wikipedia

China allegedly has 22,104 dams of which 55% are hydroelectric dams =12,200

Originally Posted by strigils

China is planning a mega dam in Tibet able to produce triple the electricity generated by the Three Gorges

If it is a hydroelectric dam, the waste and impossible to store water, will be released down stream. There is no mention of irrigation water extraction.

It appears that China has been successfully building dams for two millennia.

Down stream countries have utilised water from Chinese source rivers for millennia.

But China bashing is topical for many around the world, unfortunately. Will it ever end?

Originally Posted by OhOh

Down stream countries have utilised water from Chinese source rivers for millennia.

They have but only recently has China started to interfere with these historic flows.

Originally Posted by strigils

only recently has China started to interfer with these historic flows

Got some facts regarding historic flows 230BC TO 2021, or are you reliant on politically publicised and alleged interference allegations from a year or so?

Chinese, Thai, Laos, Cambodian and Vietnamese abstraction or insufficient rainfall?