^
Congratulations Helge on your advancement from average contrarian to pedantic contrarian.
Now, allow me to be pedantic and point out that the Politburo was in fucking Russia.
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^
Congratulations Helge on your advancement from average contrarian to pedantic contrarian.
Now, allow me to be pedantic and point out that the Politburo was in fucking Russia.
Another day, another invasion warning. So sorry you feel embarassed America because Vlad flipped you the bird in the end- but you get to sell more expensive arms to people that can't really afford it, and get to pass off more of your expensive (and environmentally destructive) fracked gas to those dumb Europatsies. That's a win really.
WellQuote:
Originally Posted by pickel
I didn't start that fire :)
If you think so, you really are a foolQuote:
Originally Posted by pickel
Most everybody knows that they were in their Datjas by the Black Sea.
In Ukraine
I didn't start this fire either
Your turn, du kleiner Pickelhelm
Exclusive: U.S. Warns Ukraine of Full-Scale Russian Invasion Within 48 Hours
President Joe Biden's administration has informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of intelligence assessing that Russia is preparing to conduct a full-scale invasion of the neighboring country within the next 48 hours, U.S. intelligence officials have revealed to Newsweek.
"The President of Ukraine has been warned Russia will highly likely begin an invasion within 48 hours based on U.S. intelligence," a U.S. official with direct knowledge told Newsweek.
"Additionally," the U.S. official added, "reporting from aircraft observers indicates Russia violated Ukrainian airspace earlier today, flying possible reconnaissance aircraft for a short period over Ukraine."
A source close to Zelenskyy's government also confirmed to Newsweek that such a warning was received, but noted that this was the third time in a month Kyiv was told to prepare for imminent large-scale military action order by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"It's possible for sure," the source said. "Putin can't keep so many troops in the field much longer."
The Pentagon's assessment includes Russian airstrikes, cruise missiles and ground invasion, according to the U.S. intelligence official.
The information was confirmed by a second U.S. intelligence official, who emphasized the comprehensive nature of the military operation the Pentagon anticipated from Russia.
The official told Newsweek that the invasion will include not only a push from the pro-Moscow rebel-held Donbas region in the east, where additional Russian units termed "peacekeepers" by Moscow were sent Monday, but also a major thrust toward the capital Kyiv from the northern border with Belarus, where Russian troops recently extended joint exercises with their ally.
The second U.S. official said that the operation would begin with a cyber attack, followed by a ground invasion that would likely occur at night. Both officials maintained, however, that Russia's plans could change based on daily developments.
Another source who took part in a National Security Council call on Tuesday confirmed to Newsweek that the White House was "incredibly pessimistic" about this being limited to the Russia-endorsed rebel republics and that an invasion would likely occur in 24-48 hours.
Newsweek has reached out to the White House, Pentagon and Russian embassy in Washington for comment.
Asked about what such a massive Russian intervention could look like in terms of military operations, the second U.S. intelligence official with whom Newsweek spoke pointed to a recent article in Foreign Affairs penned by CNA think tank's Russia Studies Program Director Michael Kofman and research scientist Jeffrey Edmonds.
Newsweek contacted Kofman, who then provided a hypothetical play-by-plan of what he called "the worst-case scenario" should Moscow actually go through with the alleged plans.
"It will open with airstrikes and missile strikes heavily supported by or enabled by cyber warfare and electronic warfare capabilities rapidly shifting to a combined arms ground offensive," Kofman told Newsweek. "And the offensive itself will be a multi-axis attack across the border from Belarus from the north all the way to Crimea in the south."
And he explained such an offensive would have "clear objectives," the first of which would be a two-part plan to besiege major northern and northeastern Ukrainian cities through, "first, a pincer movement to encircle Kyiv to impose regime change in the country" and "second, a much larger pincer movement from Ukraine's northeast, this is principally the Kharkiv area but not just Kharkiv, using a concentration of Russian forces from Kursk to Belgorod down to Millerovo."
The second Russian objective Kofman outlined would be "to operationally encircle the bulk of Ukraine's forces currently deployed in the Joint Forces Operation, which is a substantial percentage of Ukrainian ground forces, deployed near the line of control in the Donbas." Then, Kofman said, "the Russian forces will attempt a large pincer movement from the east and from Crimea to the south to envelop Ukrainian units in the JFO to cut them off from ground lines of communication, prevent their potential retreat or an organized retreat to the Dnieper River."
What Russian forces sought, according to Kofman, would be "a quick initial campaign whereby they are able to isolate the capital and the political leadership from around the country and, at the same time, isolate Ukrainian forces and break them up into different pockets or groupings of encircled troops in order to attain a surrender."
And while he said "it's not clear that Russia intends a prolonged occupation" of Ukraine, he pointed out that all the evidence suggests that they plan for it." Signs he referenced included Russia's deployment of auxiliary and national guard units to frontier regions.
Kofman also pointed out that, though Russian troops "likely intend to occupy some parts of Ukraine for an extended period of time around," this did not necessarily or even likely mean the entirety of Ukraine, the largest country in Europe.
As for Ukraine's capability to counter an initial invasion, Kofman was skeptical that an armed forces, even beefed up with some Western military assistance and hardened by eight years of clashes with Donbas separatists, was prepared for a larger conflict with its far more powerful neighbor.
"It is an understaffed force without experience in maneuver warfare, and major structural deficiencies in things ranging from logistics to availability, air defense and the like," Kofman said. "It is a military that is well-prepared for a limited fight in the Donbas and is rather unprepared for this kind of war."
Kofman estimated Russia's military power to outweigh Ukraine's at least 3 to 1, with additional force multipliers that give Moscow an even "much higher advantage." He also felt Ukrainian troops trained to fight in command and control-led formations would be hard-pressed to abruptly transition to guerilla warfare-like techniques in the midst of the battle.
Shortly after Newsweek was made aware of the U.S. assessment, the websites for Ukraine's Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry and other institutions abruptly went offline in what signaled a potential sweeping cyber attack, which would add to a series of apparent cyber assaults that the White House has publicly blamed on Moscow.
Newsweek also reported Monday after obtaining an FBI document that U.S. law enforcement has warned the U.S. private sector of a heightened potential of Russian state-sponsored cyber attacks against the United States.
Moscow has denied engaging in any hostile cyber activity and has accused Washington of exaggerating the likelihood of a conflict erupting over Ukraine, which has been at war for eight years with two Russia-aligned breakaway republics in Donbas. The self-proclaimed states were granted recognition Monday by Putin in a move the Russian leader argued was necessary to protect them from Ukrainian aggression.
No country has yet followed suit, and U.S. and Ukrainian officials have rejected the move as part of a pre-orchestrated plot to justify the deployment of Russian troops into the insurgent region and a potential larger-scale effort toward operations in other parts of Ukraine.
The U.S. has been warning for weeks that Russia was in a position to conduct an invasion at any time amid an unprecedented military buildup near Ukraine's borders, and Biden said Friday that he was "convinced" Putin had already made the decision to do so, though he noted "diplomacy is always a possibility."
But after Monday's events, the State Department and White House signaled that "in-principle" meetings scheduled between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as well as between Biden and Putin were no longer on the agenda.
In the two decades since first taking power at the beginning of the 21st century, Putin has criticized the eastward expansion of NATO toward Russia's borders. In recent years he has emphasized demands for new security assurances limiting the U.S.-led alliance's military activities in the region, and that Ukraine, as well as Georgia, be excluded from the bloc they seek to join.
But NATO has only doubled down on efforts to shore up its western flank since 2014 when an uprising brought to power a pro-West government in Ukraine, sparking the Donbas insurgency and Russia's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula after a referendum rejected by Kyiv and its Western backers.
As Moscow sent waves of troops to areas bordering Ukraine in recent months, including Belarus and Crimea, Russia began negotiations with the U.S. and NATO to seek a rollback of the coalition's presence in line with a 1997 treaty established in the wake of the Cold War. But Washington and its allies have maintained that states were free to seek NATO membership, a position that, along with the collapse of longstanding bilateral arms control measures, Putin has repeatedly warned came as a threat to Russia's own national security.
As Ukraine has not yet received NATO membership, the country does not fall under the alliance's Article 5 triggering collective military action and Biden has said he had no plans to send U.S. troops to Ukraine, where Washington's embassy and that of a number of other allied countries have been evacuated.
Rather, the U.S. and other NATO states have sent military support to Ukraine and vowed sweeping, "severe" sanctions against Russia in response to any invasion, the first tranche of which was rolled out in the past couple of days in response to Russia's actions.
The Russian Foreign Ministry dismissed the latest sanctions, which target wealthy businessmen, top officials and their families as well as banks, as the 101st attempt to coerce a change in Moscow's policies in vain.
"Despite the obvious futility of the efforts made over the years to hinder the development of our economy, the United States is again reflexively seizing on restrictive instruments that are ineffective and counterproductive from the point of view of American interests," the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
"Russia has proved that, with all the sanctions costs, it is able to minimize the damage. And even more so, sanctions pressure is not able to affect our determination to firmly defend our interests," the statement added.
The ministry accused Washington of resorting to "blackmail, intimidation and threats" in its foreign policy approach and asserted that Moscow remained "open to diplomacy based on the principles of mutual respect, equality and consideration of each other's interests."
But the ministry also warned of retaliatory measures in response to Biden's latest sanctions.
"There should be no doubt that sanctions will be given a strong response, not necessarily symmetrical, but measured and sensitive for the American side," the ministry added.
Exclusive: U.S. Warns Ukraine of Full-Scale Russian Invasion Within 48 Hours
^ Thanks for repeating it anyway. People should be at least vaguely aware of the Megatrends. :)
It is a good move by Ukraine, and every other nation in potentially volatile regions, to have a reservist, or civilian militia. Just like Switzerland, and Israel.
You see if there is one lesson of modern warfare it is that Invading is the easiest bit. Especially if you've got big, expensive missiles and other such overpriced war toys.
But the hardest bit is Occupying, or hanging on to your illusory 'conquest', against an enemy that never sleeps, is among you, and practises asymmetric warfare. When you don't like them these people are known as Terrorists. When you do, Freedom fighters. They just wear you down, cost you billions, and make for some pretty distressing Press back at home.
https://external-content.duckduckgo....jpg&f=1&nofb=1
I personally doubt Vlad will be stupid enough to invade and occupy 'Ukraine proper' (you know what I mean). He can't afford to keep it Occupied- and dontcha think they remember the lessons of Afghanistan? Occupation is a losing proposition, unless you have significant support among the local, civilian population.
Ukraine says plant in Crimea evacuated, may be pretext for aggression
KYIV — Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, tweeted on Wednesday that a night shift of the Titan chemicals plant in annexed Crimea had been evacuated from the facility.
He said it was a possible preparation for another staged provocation by Russia, which annexed Crimea in 2014.
“Moscow seems to have no limits in attempts to falsify pretexts for further aggression,” he wrote.
Ukraine says plant in Crimea evacuated, may be pretext for aggression | National Post
This is a tragedy from which only sociopathic politicians and the makers of body bags , indebtedness and weapons, will gain.
If NATO unprepared to bleed to defend Europeans then what hope S Korea Japan Taiwan from aggression.
Seems quite willing too bomb Serbs, Iraqis, Syrians, Afghanis in fact anyone who cannot hit their homes.
While there is no prospect of Russian Tanks reaching London or Lisbon Poland , Baltics Slovakia and Romania my acquire Russian troops next door. Xi will gain as NATO divided and cheap Russian fuel.
People in E Europe ad Taiwan have a small window to confront or succumb, sadly the most powerful seem to have failed diplomats , Biden Boris Scholz and Macron hardly a Holbrooke, Metternich Trygve Lie or Franklin there.
The story of this pride and hubris was described 301 years ago by Montesquieu in his famous satire of the outsiders view "Lettres Persanes".
If Putin can buy off Orban / Fidesz Jobbik a corridor through the Alfold to the Srem , Banat, and Sanjak of Serbia to the warm waters of the Adriatic needs watching.
Persian Letters - Wikipedia
Yada yada. Seriously- will we ever bore of this daily hysteria? The bottom line, from the Adults-
The US is actually playing a "Europe card," taking the EU "hostage" and forcing it to stay in the transatlantic alliance. The leaders of the European major powers have to come forward to reach an understanding with Russia. Otherwise, Russia and Europe will suffer the loss.
China is an outsider. It respects the complex history of the region and hope the situation does not develop into an intense US-led geopolitical conflict and catastrophe.
China will support Russia's economic fundamentals from the impact of potential Western sanctions. In addition, China will keep calling for a resolution of the crisis through diplomatic channels as China has always done. This has nothing to do with the Wall Street Journal's allegation that China aims to "protect ties with the US."
Europe has been in constant strife over territorial and ethnic issues for centuries, a situation that is unique and has not ceased even after the Cold War. First, the former Yugoslavia was dismembered by the US-led NATO, and now the US is using the Ukraine crisis to undermine Russia's security. Those are all problems they need to solve themselves.
US politicians and media have recently been sowing discord between China and Russia. A Foreign Affairs article claimed China is a player which "stands awkwardly." China, on one hand, "has taken Russia's side, blaming NATO expansion for causing the crisis," and on the other hand, has called for diplomacy over war in order to "prevent relations with the US from significantly deteriorating."
The US always desires an alienated partnership between China and Russia. In fact, Chinese and Russian leaders are clearly aware of the two countries' own problems. China has never and will never get involved in Russia's historical problems including its relations with the countries that became independent after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
The Ukraine crisis is extremely complex, and this issue needs to be solved on the basis of understanding history and reality simultaneously. If the history of the region is ignored, there can be no correct path to a solution.
The US is playing a big game at minimal cost, trying to keep Europe in trepidation to maintain the transatlantic alliance and its arms sales. Lockheed Martin, one of the largest American companies in military support, became the world's largest defense contractor by revenue for the fiscal year 2014, thanks to the tense situations in Ukraine.
The US has complained for years about the levels of Europe's defense spending because of the huge influence of US defense contractors on the government.
US takes Europe ‘hostage’ in Ukraine crisis - Global Times
just where does Putin decide where his new border is in UkraineQuote:
Originally Posted by sabang
Putin Border, whilst the lackeys get sanctioned and decide just how far they will let Russia's Napoleon over extend himself at their expense.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
Currently, I am wondering that myself. I seriously doubt he will make a move on Ukraine proper- absolutely stupid, and frankly would mainly benefit the USA. But what his intentions are with the ethnically Russian regions of eastern Ukraine, outside of the Luhansk and Donetsk republics- dunno. I'm pretty sure he is deliberately keeping us guessing.Quote:
just where does Putin decide where his new border is in Ukraine
Anyway, this is fundamentally a European issue and should be solved among themselves.
When it comes down to it, Vlad want to own the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and will invade Ukraine to get it.
But Russia isn't European, i don't remember many former Soviet republics speaking Ruskie before 1945.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
Germans and Gas in E Europe a toxic memory.
Seems USA won't mind a European civil war as long as they can drive to their buckets of fast food borrow. consume.
I realize there are exceptions coastal sophisticates like Slubby ad MsKrispyKremekit will be snorting truffle souffle and grits with a Flute of Coors in the jacuzzi but they are the cream
Maybe because we aren't psychotic war mongers ?Quote:
Originally Posted by panama hat
Why do YOU want to cause a war and risk WW3 and nuclear war to prevent Ukraine from being like Finland ? Are you insane ?
That would cost him any chance of 'getting it' MK.Quote:
Vlad want to own the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and will invade Ukraine to get it.
It is Mike- but the massive nation is also Asian. Just look at the bloodlines of the Royal families!Quote:
But Russia isn't European,
Russian forces in ready positions, Pentagon says
A senior defense official told reporters at the Pentagon Wednesday that 80% of Russian forces amassed on Ukraine's border are "in what we would consider forward positions, ready to go." a senior defense official told reporters during an off-camera briefing at the Pentagon on Wednesday.
Russian military forces "arrayed around Ukraine and Belarus are as ready as they can be," for an invasion, the official said.
Russian military capabilities along the Ukraine border are "near 100% of all forces" that the Pentagon anticipated Putin would move into the area, the official added. Putin has a "full range of capabilities" already moved to the Ukraine border, including "significant offensive missile capability," "two dozen warships in the Black Sea" and "armor, artillery, certainly infantry," according to the official.
Latvian PM says Russian forces are moving into eastern Ukraine as US warns full-scale invasion could be imminent - CNN
Of course they are. That's another Yawwn kitty! :)
Well, if he has that and all the other pipelines the Ukraine owns, he can control access to energy going to Europe.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
NS2 bypasses Ukraine MK- it goes under the Baltic. As does NS1.
[Hint- Nord means north]
True that and the failure of the "west" to treat Russia with inclusiveness rather than exclusiveness in the immediate period of the fall of the Soviet Union has brought us to where we are today. A continuation of the cold war.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
A small excerpt from a very good article. Worth a read.
"In retrospect, the economic transition to capitalism was a catastrophe for most Russians. It is also clear that the West should have dealt with post-Cold War Russia better than it did. Both the West and Russia would have been considerably more secure today if the chance for Russia to join the European Union, and possibly even NATO, had at least been kept open in the 1990s.
Instead, their exclusion has given Russians the sense of being outcasts and victims — which, in turn, has given credence to embittered jingoists like President Vladimir Putin, who see all the disasters that have befallen the country over the past generation as an American plot to reduce and isolate it. Mr. Putin’s authoritarianism and bellicosity have been sustained by genuine popular support"
Opinion | The Cold War and America’s Delusion of Victory - The New York Times
Why Germany halted the Nord Stream 2 pipeline | Popular ScienceQuote:
Originally Posted by sabang
Oops. I had it confused with the gas pipelines that run through the middle of Ukraine.
Halted, not cancelled. At least be aware of the difference. It is not irredeemable- unless Vlad is as stoopid as you think!
^^ Excellent stuff norts. Just out of ammo. :)
Old article.
https://teakdoor.com/attachment.php?...id=83482&stc=1
Russia seen needing Ukraine’s gas pipelines to Europe after 2019
Moscow-based Gazprom will need Ukraine’s gas system, a key route for supplies of Siberian fuel to Europe, well beyond 2019 when the existing transit agreement expires, said Andriy Kobolyev, CEO of Naftogaz of Ukraine. The two sides have a strained relationship, with Gazprom seeking to end the current accord early after losing a multi-billion-dollar arbitration case to its Kiev-based counterpart. How to arrange Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine will be among the key topics in talks between the two companies later this month in Europe, according to Kobolyev. Other issues include the payment schedule of the $2.6 billion Naftogaz won in the arbitration.
The remarks come at a time of soured relations between Europe and Russia, which supplies a third of the region’s gas. The political standoff over the poisoning of a former spy and his daughter in the UK has led to Prime Minister Theresa May calling for alternatives to Russian fuel. “Gazprom will not be able to cope without the Ukrainian gas transportation system after 2019, so they will need to sign a new contract with us,” Kobolyev said in an interview in London. Gazprom declined to comment. Earlier this week, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said his country doesn’t reject cooperation with Ukraine on gas shipments but seeks “competitive” terms.
Russia has a history of disputes with Ukraine on gas and is seeking to further reduce its dependence on its neighbor for transport to Europe, including by expanding the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea directly to Germany. Ukraine, which earns about $2 billion of transit revenue from Russian gas passing through its territory, is seeking support from allies including Poland and the U.S. to stop the new link. Gazprom plans to start Nord Stream 2 late in 2019. Even if it starts building the link now, it won’t be able to finish by the end of 2019, Kobolyev said. And Europe would lose out as it doesn’t add to the diversity of supplies to the region, he said.
Russia is using gas as a political tool, Kobolyev said. “Russia is totally unwilling to separate gas and politics — from their perspective it’s the same and gas plays a very important instrument in achieving a wider geopolitical agenda,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview earlier Wednesday. Russia is meanwhile boosting its shipments to the continent to record volumes, taking advantage of a recent cold snap that sent prices to record levels. As it plans other pipelines including TurkStream across Turkey, it may not be able to reroute sufficient gas outside Ukraine.
“Even with these various projects Gazprom is still nowhere near being able to replace all of the 80 Bcm a year or so of flows that currently go through Ukraine,” Energy Aspects, a London-based consultant, said in an emailed note dated March 16. “So the threat to cancel the transit contracts should be seen as gaining leverage to renegotiate a more favorable transit deal.”
Russia seen needing Ukraine’s gas pipelines to Europe after 2019 | by Jon Oronero | Medium
Yes, halting Russian gas & oil supplies to Europe would be disastrous for both Russia and Europe. Who would benefit from that? Certainly no European ally.
China would be my guess. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang