Desparate? Don't know why you would conclude that. They have them so no surprise they are using them.Quote:
Originally Posted by helge
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Desparate? Don't know why you would conclude that. They have them so no surprise they are using them.Quote:
Originally Posted by helge
Rumours abound but until it happens then it is just that, a rumor! ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by helge
An unofficial interesting story or piece of news that might be true or invented, and quickly spreads from person to person.
:)Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton
"Because evil tongues has it that the Abrams are better suited for other operations".
Read into that what you want.
Jeezus you really have no idea what is going on and are spouting utter nonsense as usual. What a clown.
Attachment 109111Quote:
AVDIIVKA AXIS/1345 UTC 27 NOV/ Ukrainian forces break up 30 Russian attacks around Avdiivka. RU forces defeated at Stepove, Sieverne & Pervomaiske. Russian manpower losses are estimated (conservatively) at 300 troops Killed in Action.
Helga...
Attachment 109112
:)Quote:
Originally Posted by bsnub
Thanks for your input.
Very helpful
Ukraine’s new approach to military recruitment
© Provided by Dagens.com India (Eng)
The Ukrainian government is set to overhaul its military conscription system, introducing a new, more targeted approach involving commercial recruiting companies, reports The Guardian.
This significant shift in mobilization strategy will be officially announced later this week.
Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, revealed that the army would partner with two of the nation's largest staffing agencies.
This collaboration aims to pinpoint individuals with specific skills necessary for the military, moving away from the traditional blanket conscription method.
Under the new system, potential conscripts will have the opportunity to apply for roles that align with their professional expertise, such as welding or locksmithing.
This approach is designed to optimize the utilization of skills within the armed forces and address the reluctance of qualified Ukrainians who wish to assist the military but are hesitant about frontline deployment.
The initiative reflects a more flexible and efficient mobilization process, as described by Danilov: "Mobilization will become more adaptable, focusing on required specialties. People can apply for specific positions that are needed, like welders or locksmiths."
This announcement follows a recent statement by Danilov, noting that conscripts whose service term has expired will soon be demobilized.
Additionally, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has instructed Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, along with other ministries, to devise a comprehensive mobilization plan for the military by next week.
The move signifies a strategic shift in Ukraine’s military approach, as the nation continues to adapt to the ongoing conflict and its evolving demands.
This might work to up the numbers of support vs frontline via more folks enlisting vs getting drafted. Only 1 in 10, 10% are combat troops and the rest support them. However, it is a numbers game and Russia has a huge advantage so Ukraine needs to do something to get more in the military. Time will tell.Quote:
Originally Posted by helge
The Ukraine's current draft system is simular to the US back in the 60s. Plenty of ways to avoid service via a deferment for those who want nothing to do with military and of course just disappearing into another country.
Those who are drafted or enlisted are given placement tests to determine apptitudes and then sent to training to develop a particular skill.
To achieve the gov stated recapture and hold all Russian occupied Ukraine territory is going to take huge numbers. Numbers I believe unachievable no matter what conscription/recruitment process is.
The Recipe for $150 Oil
JAMES RICKARDS
POSTED
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
How do the wars in Ukraine and Gaza impact global economic growth and the U.S. economy in particular?
"Both wars are ongoing and cataclysmic impacts may yet be felt. Here’s where events stand at the moment. Let’s start with the war in Ukraine…
From a strategic perspective, the situation in Ukraine resembles a smaller-scale version of the situation in Europe in late 1944. At that point, the Allies had successfully completed the D-Day invasion and liberated Paris.
On the Eastern Front, the Russians had annihilated the combined armies of the German Wehrmacht and were advancing through Poland toward Berlin.
Hard fighting remained. The Allies had to fight the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944, and the Russians encountered stiff German resistance in Poland even though they had superiority in numbers, supplies and weapons.
Still, no one doubted that the tide had turned, and Germany was on its way to defeat.
Russia Is Winning on Two Fronts
Likewise, the Russians are clearly defeating the Ukrainians despite the fact that a lot of hard fighting remains. Ukraine’s so-called spring offensive that began in early June was a complete and utter failure.
Nearly six months after it began, Ukraine only captured a few pinprick villages it was expected to take within the first few days.
Casualties are horrendous and Ukraine is reduced to calling up young teenagers, women and old men. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier is 43.
Russia has also demonstrated that NATO weapons systems are hardly wonder weapons.
Russian mines, drones and artillery have destroyed the most advanced German Leopard and U.K. Challenger tanks. The U.S. has held back on letting Ukraine use its Abrams tanks for fear they’ll end up burning on the battlefield like the Leopards and Challengers.
On the economic front, the Russian victory is even more clear-cut than on the military front.
U.S. economic sanctions have failed across the board. The Russian economy is expected to grow at a 5% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023. The best estimate for the U.S. economy in Q4 is 2%, although one can expect that rate to drop as the quarter progresses.
The Russian ruble has withstood Russia’s ejection from global payments networks; it is trading only about 25% lower than when the war began after holding its level against the U.S. dollar over the first 15 months of the war. Inflation in Russia is low.
The Russian economy is on a complete war footing. There are even labor shortages as Russians take jobs in the weapons factories or enlist in the military.
Morale is high, and Putin’s approval rating is above 80% (compare that with Joe Biden’s approval ratings, which are about 37%). To the extent that Putin is unpopular, it’s mostly because many complain he’s not pursuing the war aggressively enough.
Meanwhile, Russian energy sales are at all-time highs. Russia simply sold to India and China any oil and gas that Europe did not want. Meanwhile, Germany is in deep recession even as Russia booms.
Russia’s Also Winning on the Technological Front
Russian technology has proved superior to Western technology on the battlefield. The Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile has destroyed U.S. Patriot anti-missile batteries (about $1 billion each) and has proved unstoppable against Western air defenses.
Russia has also dramatically expanded drone production since the war began. Russia’s even developed advanced drones equipped with AI, which enables coordinated swarm attacks on enemy tanks and armored vehicles.
Russian jamming devices have disabled the GPS systems on the U.S. HIMARS precision artillery systems, which has dramatically impacted their effectiveness.
Russian tech advances have not been confined to weaponry. They’re moving quickly in the areas of semiconductor manufacturing, aeronautics, telecommunications and robotic manufacturing.
So U.S. sanctions have not only failed to stop Russia, but they have also prompted Russia to become a formidable competitor to the collective West.
I said in early 2022 right after the war began that U.S. sanctions would not only fail against Russia, but they would also boomerang and hurt the U.S.
The forecast has proved exactly right.
An Economic Blunder of Epic Proportions
As if Russian advances on the battlefield and Russian economic success were not enough, the U.S. may be about to commit the greatest economic blunder in history, one that could accelerate the flight from the U.S. dollar and destroy confidence in the U.S. Treasury securities market.
Here’s the backstory:
After several weeks of chaos in October, the House of Representatives finally elected a new speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, a mild-mannered but solidly conservative and relatively new member from Louisiana.
He got off to a good start by separating financial support for Israel from support for Ukraine. Both bills will probably pass, but by separating them, Johnson avoided the trap of having to vote for Ukraine in order to support Israel.
Many members support the latter but oppose the former, and now they can make their voices heard with separate votes. So far, so good.
Now Johnson has committed a blunder so egregious that it could rock the global financial system and cause a financial panic. Unfortunately, Johnson’s lack of experience in international monetary affairs has left him blind to the dangers.
Pure Stupidity
Right now, the U.S. holds about $300 billion of Russian assets that were frozen after the Ukraine war broke out in February 2022. Most of those assets came from the Central Bank of Russia and consist of U.S. Treasury securities.
Technically, those assets have not been converted to U.S. ownership. They have merely been frozen and still belong to Russia even though Russia cannot use them.
Now, Johnson wants to convert those assets to U.S. ownership and use the proceeds to pay for the war in Ukraine. Johnson said, “It would be pure poetry to fund the Ukrainian war effort with Russian assets.”
Pure stupidity is more like it. Such an action would amount to a default on U.S. government debt since the securities were legally owned by Russia. Nations around the world would take note and accelerate their dumping of Treasury securities and their flight from the U.S. dollar.
This would increase interest rates in the U.S. and hurt everyone from homebuyers to everyday consumers. It would make U.S. debt permanently more difficult to sell and less desirable to hold.
It would introduce a new risk premium on U.S. debt over and above the existing inflation premium. At its worst, it could trigger a dollar panic and full-scale flight from the dollar.
Johnson is playing with fire and has no idea what he is doing. Let’s hope he receives some sound advice before he goes too far.
Hamas and Israel
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has been more contained from a global economic perspective, but it also has potential to spin out of control and rock the global economy.
The potential for economic calamity in Gaza is not the fighting in Gaza itself but the possibility of escalation.
Israel faces an enemy 10 times more powerful than Hamas in the form of Hezbollah, which is located in Lebanon on Israel’s northern border, and which is heavily subsidized by Iran in terms of money, weapons and intelligence.
In addition to Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen are firing missiles at Israel. The Houthis are a direct Iranian proxy intended to threaten Saudi Arabia, but are equally capable of threatening Israel.
If Hezbollah and Houthi attacks on Israel escalate, Israel will not limit their response to those two groups. They are likely to launch attacks on Iran itself going to the root of the problem. At that point, Iran may fire missiles at Israel and close the Straits of Hormuz.
$150 Oil
In anticipation of that, the U.S. has moved two aircraft carrier battle groups to the Eastern Mediterranean and stationed one Ohio-class nuclear submarine in the Red Sea. The idea is to deter Iran from attacking Israel, but they can be used to attack Iran if the war escalates to that level.
Russia is watching on the sidelines and will support Iran if necessary. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two of the world’s largest energy producers, are caught in the middle.
If those escalation scenarios play out even in part, expect oil prices to go to $150 per barrel or higher. That would put the U.S. and Western Europe in a recession worse than 2008 and the earlier oil shock of 1974.
In the 1974 recession, the Dow Jones index fell 45%. That would equate to a crash of over 15,000 Dow points from today’s levels.
I’m not making a hard prediction that this scenario will occur, but don’t rule it out.
It’s a good time to reduce your exposure to stocks, keep a lot of cash on hand and get your hands on physical gold and silver."
The Recipe for $150 Oil - The Daily Reckoning
A Norwegian, an Englishman and a retired United States Army Colonel and former chief of staff to United States Secretary of State Colin Powell discuss historic and contemporary issues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcm1oWMnpS4
Russia increases armed forces by 170,000 men
Russia is increasing the recruitment of new soldiers to the army by about 170,000 men.
This comes after President Putin today signed a decree that the number of soldiers in the army must increase by 15 percent.
From Reuters and the Russian state media Tass.
According to the document, the total armed forces will thus reach 1,320,000 soldiers.
The build-up is due to "increased threats" related to the Ukraine war and "Nato's expansion
Zelenskyy fights for the soldiers' spirit: 'We must not allow people to forget the war in Ukraine'
The summer offensive against Russia did not go as expected, and the winter cold is creating a new phase in the war.
https://asset.dr.dk/imagescaler/?pro...70&w=720&h=405
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the war with Russia is entering a new phase, with winter expected to complicate fighting. Now he fears that the US presidential election and the war between Israel and Hamas will take all the attention away from the international community. (Photo: © Srdjan Nedeljkovic, ap)
Frozen land, biting cold and empty magazines.
This is now the reality for the Ukrainian soldiers. Because the summer offensive against Russia did not live up to expectations, and now winter is sending chills through the war in Ukraine.
That is why the Ukrainian President has now noted that the war has entered a new phase.
"We are in a new phase of the war and that is a fact," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during his visit to Kharkiv, which has been subjected to near-constant bombardment by Russian forces since the start of the war.
But it is no surprise to Anders Puck Nielsen, a military analyst at the Royal Danish Defence College, that the president is making this announcement in the wake of the failed summer offensive.
"I understand Zelenskyy's announcement as just an observation. I do not read it as a statement that something new is now happening, he says.
It is now expected that winter will further complicate the war.
That's why the president has been put on Tour on the Ukrainian front line. His mission is to fan the spirits of the soldiers who are still fighting for Ukraine to win the war.
Didn't get enough weapons
We must not allow people to forget about the war in Ukraine.
Conditions in the war have not changed in the past year, and this has caused frustration among the soldiers. And the arms donations from the West will all soon be fired.
Ukrainians are therefore asking themselves how they are going to be able to fight when they have nothing to fight with. Nor can the president deny that frustration any longer.
"We're losing people, I'm not satisfied. We didn't get all the weapons we wanted. I am not satisfied. But I also can't complain too much," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
https://asset.dr.dk/imagescaler/?pro...70&w=720&h=405
During the visit to Kharkiv, Zelenskyy handed out medals to some of the soldiers who continue to fight on the front lines against the Russian army. (Photo: © Srdjan Nedeljkovic, Associated Press)
Since the beginning of the war, the West has donated military aid worth billions and military hardware, where artillery systems, fighter planes and tanks are on the list of Danish donations.
But Ukraine needs more donations if it is to fight the Russians Battlefield. And the West's attention to Ukraine has gradually waned since the invasion last February.
"It's clear that Ukraine is doing a big campaign to try to ensure that we support them in the future," says Anders Puck Nielsen.
The Ukrainian President is now trying to draw the attention of the international community to the fact that we must not forget the war in Ukraine, even though the war between Israel and the Hamas has taken over much of the attention.
"We must not allow people to forget about the war in Ukraine," said Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who fears that the upcoming US presidential election will also shift focus from the war in Ukraine.
Refuses to surrender
Much of the weapons stock has been used up, and the soldiers no longer have much to go on the offensive with. Yet the president refuses to surrender.
https://asset.dr.dk/imagescaler/?pro...70&w=720&h=480
Zelenskyy looks at the Ukrainian map alongside some of the officers from the front lines in Kharkiv, a vibrant city before the invasion. (Photo: © Efrem Lukatsky, Associated Press)
- Listen. We are not backing down, I am satisfied. We are fighting the second best army in the world, I am satisfied," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, referring to the Russian army.
However, it is uncertain whether the West will again be able to help the Ukrainians with the donation of military hardware as this summer.
Ukraine is very dependent on the West, which has not been as quick to ramp up production of military hardware as Russia. This means that today you cannot give Ukraine what it needs - we simply do not have it. And the Russians may have a year or so in the lead, says Anders Puck Nielsen.
The West today cannot give Ukraine what it needs - we simply do not have it.
The Russian lead was even extended when Russian President Vladimir Putin recently approved a Finance Act for 2024, when 40 percent of Russian budget spending is expected to be transferred to the country's defense and security.
Some of the money goes towards recruiting about 170,000 new soldiers, which is equivalent to a 15 percent buildup of Russia's army.
Official: Kyiv International Airport may reopen soon
Kasper Mosholm Thulstrup
On February 24 last year, the last passenger checked in at Kyiv's international airport, Boryspil, and since then the departure and arrival halls have been empty.
But soon the check-in cranes could come back to life. That's according to Andrey Yermak, head of Zelenskyy's presidential office.
Yermak met with a number of foreign ambassadors at the airport to discuss the situation in the war-torn country.
"This return to the elements of peace is possible because Ukraine has become stronger. Now we can ensure the safety of this facility. Thanks to our defence forces and our friends – your countries. And I am confident that the symbolic boarding passes you received at the entrance will soon become valid," he said, according to the presidential office's website.
Before the outbreak of war, Boryspil was the largest airport in Ukraine.
Coming soon to your cinema.
Attachment 109222
Is Hersh Story On Secret Ukraine Peace Talks True?
Date
12/1/2023 (MENAFN- Asia Times)
There is a story, published by Seymour Hersh and picked up by Russian media, that Ukrainian General Valerii Zaluzhny and Russian General Valery Gerasimov are secretly negotiating a deal that could potentially end the Ukraine war.
The story is supported by“anonymous” sources, allegedly in the US intelligence establishment. The question is: Is the report true?
The Russian report on the Hersh story has disappeared
What is true is that the relationship between Zaluzhny, the overall commander of Ukraine's armed forces, and Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky, is very bad.
So bad, in fact, that Zaluzhny did not show up on the last day of November for a meeting between Zelensky and his generals.
On top of that, Zelensky is reported to have ordered Ukraine's regional governors not to speak with Zaluzhny
Given the estrangement between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, anything that Zaluzhny might or could negotiate should run into a Kiev brick wall.
Zelensky has made it clear that the Ukrainian government will not – nor , legally, can it (because of legislation prohibiting it) – negotiate with Moscow.
https://menafn.com/updates/pr/2023-1...e_In_Body.jpeg
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, pictured above, told Time magazine last year that when studying military doctrine he had read all the publications of Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, 17 years his senior.
The Russian papers, following Hersh, say there are two broad conditions for a deal between the generals.
The first is at least some kind of recognition by Ukraine of Russian control of the territory it presently occupies.
The second, which seems altogether impossible, is that Russia would not object to Ukraine joining NATO provided there are no NATO bases in Ukraine.
^
I do not believe it
The price will be higher ....for Ukraine
It appears that the 16% have lost the attacking desire.
Zelenskiy Calls for New Fortifications Amid Fears War May Expand
Aliaksandr Kudrytski
Wed, November 29, 2023 at 5:27 PM GMT+7·1 min read
"(Bloomberg) -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for a faster buildup of major defensive lines amid Kyiv’s stalled counteroffensive and concerns that Russia could attempt to take more territory.
Zelenskiy urged greater speed and efficiency in building defenses in a video statement on Telegram after a meeting with key military and security officials Tuesday evening. He encouraged local communities to pitch in and pledged to make money available for the effort.
“Our country will definitely have enough mines and concrete,” he said. He didn’t provide details on where the fortifications would be built or how extensive they might be.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive stalled over the past months as Kyiv’s troops became bogged down trying to penetrate thick lines of defense built by Russia that include minefields and trench systems stretching for miles. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been keeping up the military pressure by sending more soldiers to the frontlines despite heavy casualties.
The fighting may again expand beyond the east and south of Ukraine if Russia continues to boost its weapons production and improve military technologies with the help of its allies, Serhii Nayev, commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told ABC News in an interview last weekend.
Zelenskiy discussed defensive operations in Odesa and the Black Sea grain corridor on Wednesday as he visited troops deployed in the southern region."
Zelenskiy Calls for New Fortifications Amid Fears War May Expand
There are currently no mothers and wives calling for Zalensky to end the war. Russia, not so much. If you had telegram, I could show you the pictures. Tik tok, tik tok.Quote:
Originally Posted by helge
"Nearly every Ukrainian agrees that winning the war means regaining all the land that Russia has conquered from their country since 2014, when the Crimean Peninsula was annexed by Moscow, the Gallup survey found.
While most Ukrainians support fighting until the war is won, that majority is shrinking. Last year it was 70%, and this year it is 60%.
“Fatigue is building up,” said Sergey Radchenko, a scholar of Soviet history at Johns Hopkins.
A growing number of Ukrainians are now hoping Kyiv can negotiate an end to the conflict. That sentiment, Ray said, is especially strong near the front lines in the nation’s south and east, where the toll of war is worst.
One in two Ukrainians reported in Gallup’s survey that they struggle to afford food and shelter. Experts say that Russia wants to see increasing disillusionment in Ukraine as the war drags on.
“That’s why [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has pursued this strategy of targeting infrastructure, power plants and so on,” Radchenko said. “He wants to exhaust the Ukrainian public.”
This winter, Putin could make further headway.
“There are going to be difficult conditions,” said Joseph Nye, a former dean of Harvard Kennedy School. “As the Russians concentrate on destroying infrastructure, people are going to go cold and hungry. That’s probably going to have some effect on how Ukrainians view the war.”
More:
New Poll Reveals How Ukrainians Feel About War, Future.
They said the same thing last year, and it still did not happen. Things are different this winter as there are far more air defenses in Ukraine than last year, you can bank that a lot of those missiles will be intercepted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton
Starting to sound like Canada. There were recently some Ukrainian immigrants that decided to go home, as it was too hard to make ends meet here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton
^+^^ Gallup poll indicates Ukranians still strongly support the war. Expect another poll after winter. We will see if support goes up or down.
Der Spiegel article, reported on, an maybe sexed up, by RT.
As always,take it all with a grain of salt.
Even Klitschko is pushing an agenda here :
Zelensky has devolved into authoritarianism Kiev mayor
RT.com
3rd December 2023, 09:13 GMT+11
All of Ukraine is becoming dependent on the ?mood? of a single person, Vitaly Klitschko says
Ukraine's municipal authorities now remain the only independent force in the country, which has grown increasingly authoritarian amid the conflict with Russia, the Mayor of Kiev Vitaly Klitschko has said.
Klitschko shared his assessment of the state of 'democracy' in Ukraine in an interview with German daily Der Spiegel, published on Friday.
The country's governing institutes have greatly deteriorated amid the hostilities, with local municipal authorities effectively remaining the only independent force standing, he asserted.
"Ukraine is on the path to authoritarianism," the mayor said. "There is only one independent institution left -local authorities- and they are under enormous pressure."
During the conflict, the central government has been communicating poorly, if at all, with local authorities, the mayor of the Ukrainian capital claimed.
"In a year and a half since the beginning of the conflict with Russia, there has not been a single meeting or telephone conversation between [the city of] Kiev and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
At some point, we will get to the situation where everything depends on the mood of a single person," Klitschko told Der Spiegel.
Boxing star-turned-politician Klitschko was elevated to his position shortly after Ukraine's 2014 Maidan coup, remaining one of the few Poroshenko-era officials to retain his post under Zelensky.
Over the past few months, relations between the capital's mayor and the central government have been marred by multiple public spats.
In June, for instance, the national government reprimanded Klitschko over the state of the city's bomb shelters, with the heads of two districts and two acting district heads dismissed from their posts over their failure to keep the facilities operational.
Klitschko also became one of the first major Ukrainian public figures to admit the failure of his country's long-heralded counteroffensive against the Russian forces.
In early November, the mayor said the troops were moving "slowly" and were unable to "swiftly breach" fortifications erected by Russia.
The mayor's assessment drastically contrasted with the stance taken by the president at the time, who was insisting the counteroffensive was still going on and consistently denied any setbacks.
Zelensky conceded its failure only this week, telling AP that he now considers the fact that his country's troops are not retreating at the moment a "satisfying" result.
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There must be serious conflict within the ukranian higher echelon.
Otherwise Klitschko really should..shut up and keep it on the inner lines