1. #8476
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    How Ukraine scored its biggest victory since the war began

    2/6

    It only took a few days for Ukraine to liberate as much territory as Russia had captured over several months, as the occupying force crumbled then withdrew from Izium on Saturday.

    Ukraine appears to have borrowed a US military tactic favoured during the Iraq War called a "thunder run".

    The daring, high-speed manoeuvre involves a military convoy using heavy weapons and armoured vehicles to plunge into enemy territory and overrun the surprised defending forces.

    Ukraine war mega thread-screenshot-2022-09-17-07-44-a
    In recent days, Ukrainian troops have piled pressure on retreating Russian forces , pressing deeper into occupied territory.(AP: Kostiantyn Liberov)

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has since claimed more than 6,000 square kilometres has been reclaimed in the east and the south since the beginning of September.

    The situation was so dire in some towns and villages, residents later told reporters, that Russian troops were seen fleeing on stolen bicycles, attempting to disguise themselves in civilian clothes.

    "The Russian army these days is demonstrating its best ability — to show its back," Mr Zelenskyy said in a video address.

    The eastern city of Izium is a logistical hub and the gateway to the Donbass region, which includes the two Russian-controlled separatist states Donetsk and Lugansk.
    Winning the city back, combined with Ukraine's other sweeping gains, is perhaps the biggest upset in the war since Russia's dramatic retreat from the capital Kyiv in late March.

    But less than a fortnight ago, the battle for the southern port city of Kherson seemed to be Ukraine's main priority.
    So, did something change? Or was a southern fake-out always on the cards?
    Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago ...


  2. #8477
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    The tightly held plan that caught Putin off guard

    3/6


    It all began with a war game.

    With the deadline of winter looming, the Ukrainian president needed a consequential win to boost his people's morale and shore up future support from the West.

    "Slowly Ukraine was starting to lose face and the Western countries were starting to lose faith in the Ukrainian Armed Forces," said Marina Miron, a research fellow in the Defence Studies Department at King's College in London.

    "So, first of all, they saw themselves under pressure to deliver something, to deliver some sort of victory.
    "Because, before that, all the victories were essentially in the information domain, but you have to show something on the battlefield."

    The Ukrainian military devised a plan to reclaim Kherson and Mariupol, both home to prized ports, hoping to turn the tide six months into the war.

    During the summer, US and Ukrainian officials teased out the possibility of a broad offensive in the south targeting the strategic cities, which grant access to the Black Sea.


    But the exercise, first reported by CNN, suggested such an ambitious blitz was doomed to fail.
    The Ukrainians were adamant, though: they needed to move quickly to stop Moscow further exploiting its control of gas supplies to Europe when the chill sets in.


    The continent has already seen a dramatic spike in energy prices, with Russia's deputy prime minister now promising to cut gas exports by a third.
    Drawing on US intelligence, the Ukrainians planned two smaller offensives.


    They hoped to turn their dominance in the information sphere — plus an influx of new weaponry — into a decisive win on the ground.

  3. #8478
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Did the US tip the scales?

    4/6

    For the past several months, the conflict has ground on in the east and the south with neither side seemingly able to break the stalemate.
    But, behind the scenes, Ukraine was quietly amassing billions of dollars' worth of foreign military aid — and learning how to use it.

    Since the war began on February 24, the United States alone has injected some $US14.5 billion ($21.7 billion) into the war, including providing HIMARS, a type of powerful long-range rocket launcher.
    The munitions for the GPS-guided systems can strike targets with precision from more than 60 kilometres away.

    By some accounts, the five-tonne HIMARS trucks, the first of which arrived in June, are having an outsized impact on the battlefield because they allow the Ukrainians to hit targets deep behind enemy lines.


    But Dr Miron argued US intelligence probably played a weightier role.
    "I think the importance of HIMARS was basically, in a tactical sense, it created some parity in terms of artillery," she said.

    "However, I don't think it was the catalyst of change in this war."


    It now seems likely the two-pronged offensive — capturing the east while eyes were on the south — was always the plan.


    "The Ukrainians are conducting operations that are forcing the Russians to make decisions on the battlefield about where they're going to apply their resources, and how," a senior US military official said during a recent Pentagon briefing.


    "So, what we've seen is the Ukrainians applying the capabilities that they have, [including] those that have been provided by the US and our allies … in order to again change the dynamics on the battlefield."

    Taras Berezovets, a former Ukrainian national security adviser turned special forces press officer, went so far as to label the tactic a "big special disinformation operation".


    "[Russia] thought it would be in the south and moved their equipment," he told the Guardian.
    "Then, instead of the south, the offensive happened where they least expected, and this caused them to panic and flee."

  4. #8479
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Why Ukraine's timing was everything

    5/6

    In Russia, President Vladimir Putin has carefully stage-managed the domestic coverage of the invasion of Ukraine.
    He still refuses to call it a war, instead euphemistically describing it as a "special military operation", meant to "de-Nazify" Ukraine and liberate its people.
    On state television, he has consistently been backed by a cheer squad of presenters parroting Kremlin talking points.

    But even some of Mr Putin's most ardent supporters appear shaken by Ukraine's change of fortunes.
    The frustration is also starting to seep through online.
    "We need to be honest, the Ukrainian command has outplayed us here," said Yuri Podolya, a pro-Kremlin military blogger with 2.2 million followers on Telegram.
    Mr Podolya called the recent losses "large" and said the Russian Ministry of Defence had failed to rectify "problems identified by the first months of the war".

    On the world stage, Russia is also becoming increasingly isolated, even from its most powerful allies.
    In separate meetings with Mr Putin this week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to tacitly rebuke the invasion of Ukraine, while China's leader Xi Jinping made no mention of it at all.
    "I know that today's era is not an era of war," Mr Modi said.

    Mr Putin has held power in Russia since 1999, both as president and prime minister.
    His potential electoral opposition has been sidelined — or jailed — but he is acutely sensitive to public sentiment.

    He's also spent roughly two decades building up Russia's modern military, once ranked among the world's best, which now appears to be in tatters.
    In a statement, the Ministry of Defence sought to frame Russia's hasty retreat as a pre-planned decision to regroup and redeploy.

    But it has already lashed out with missile strikes on critical infrastructure, plunging parts of the country into darkness and flooding Mr Zelenskyy's hometown.

    "Strength is the only source of Putin's legitimacy," Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Mr Putin, told The New York Times.
    "And in a situation in which it turns out that he has no strength, his legitimacy will start dropping toward zero."

  5. #8480
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Is this the beginning of the end of the war?

    6/6

    The Ukrainians are hoping the West will help them solidify their gains in what remains contested territory, while trying to rebuild cities devastated by months of Russian occupation.
    After surveying the destruction left behind in Izium, including mass graves, Mr Zelenskyy has also called on foreign governments to investigate alleged human rights abuses.

    "Earlier, when we looked up, we always looked for the blue sky," he wrote in a statement.
    "Today, when we look up, we are looking for only one thing — the flag of Ukraine."
    His foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, also condemned the recent missile strikes on water systems as "a war crime" and an "act of terror".

    Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih hydraulic structures is a war crime and an act of terror. Beaten by Ukrainian army on the battlefield, Russian cowards are now at war with our critical infrastructure and civilians. Russia is a terrorist state and must be recognized as such.
    — Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) September 14, 2022
    It remains unclear how far Russia will be willing to go to halt Ukraine's momentum.
    But some fear cyber, chemical and even nuclear attacks may be on the cards.

    So far, the European Union's top official, Ursula von der Leyen, has been a sympathetic ear.
    "It's absolutely vital and necessary to support Ukraine with the military equipment they need to defend themselves," she said.

    But the US has rebuffed a request to provide more HIMARS munitions.

    "I'm not sure that Ukraine will get the weapons it's requesting because … the West [is] not interested in having Ukraine so powerful that it can potentially launch attacks deep inside Russia, because then everything would spin out of control," Dr Miron said.

    ENDS

  6. #8481
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    The Ukrainians are hoping the West will help them solidify their gains
    As are most people except stupid wanketeers.

  7. #8482
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    As are most people except stupid wanketeers.
    The 'stupid wanketeers' on TD seems to have pulled their respective necks in

  8. #8483
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    The 'stupid wanketeers' on TD seems to have pulled their respective necks in
    That is no surprise since their entire narrative completely collapsed and has been exposed as complete shit. Even though most of us saw them for the clowns they are, after the collapse of the Russian army there is no doubt.


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  10. #8485
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    AIR DEFENSE DOMINANCE: 2 batteries of the NASAMS SAM system will soon be in country. UKR’s re-establishment of an integrated air defense system checks RU air superiority fighters, defends against cruise missiles, and allows UKR to sortie more close air support missions.
    Ukraine war mega thread-hf51qcm-jpg

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    KHERSON/2355 UTC 16 SEP/ With the recent destruction of three Russian Su-25 ground attack aircraft, and the interdiction of a Su-24 fighter bomber, UKR has demonstrated the lethality of its resurgent air defense network. This has allowed UKR to increase close air support sorties.
    Ukraine war mega thread-w8ymtxz-jpg

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    NO PLACE TO HIDE: UKR Partisans have successfully carried out a personnel interdiction op against Sergei Gorenko, the Prosecutor General of the occupied “Luhansk People’s Republic”. Gorenko was killed by an explosion in his Luhansk office.
    Ukraine war mega thread-q5rvrzt-jpg

    BREAKING UPDATE: Luhansk People's Republic Prosecutor-General Serhiy Horenko killed in explosion - Euro Weekly News

  13. #8488
    Viva Ukraine
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  14. #8489
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Cow View Post
    One less traitor.
    Indeed. More and more of these scum are being killed every day. Slava Ukraini.

  15. #8490
    Thailand Expat russellsimpson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    Slowly Ukraine was starting to lose face and the Western countries were starting to lose faith in the Ukrainian Armed Forces,"
    Ridiculous.



    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    Marina Miron, a research fellow in the Defence Studies Department at King's College in London.
    We can only hope that Marina isn't part of the crack British counterintelligence team.

  16. #8491
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Haven't had an update from Denys for a while. Awesome image @ the 13min mark


  17. #8492
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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    Is this the beginning of the end of the war?
    I think that might be a little optimistic at this stage, despite the gains made by the Ukraine counteroffensive.

    The Russian goal is to to take the Donbas region, consisting of Luhansk and Donetsk. They still control the whole of Luhansk and are still driving Eastward in Donetsk. The loss of territory cuts off the supply routes from the North and forces the Russians to attack on only the Southern and Eastern fronts. However, they have not lost any of the territory they are trying to make independent of Ukraine.

    It won't be long before the weather makes it impossible to continue an offensive in the Donetsk region. It will be interesting to see what happens over the winter and whether the Russians can maintain enough morale to remain in defensive positions until the spring. Ukraine need to make another decisive push forward before the winter to try and break the Russian spirit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Ukraine need to make another decisive push forward before the winter to try and break the Russian spirit.
    The current offensive is by no means over. The Ukrainians have paused it to consolidate gains move the logistics lines forward, rest and move all the spoils of war back from the front. It will resume when they are ready.

    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    are still driving Eastward in Donetsk.
    Where are you seeing this? The battle line is pretty much unchanged down there for the last two weeks aside from some of the gains Ukraine has made pushing forward on Lyman as is pointed out in the video David posted. The Russians are still very much on the back heel.

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    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    A list of operational equipment captured by Ukraine forces during the Kharkiv offensive, as listed so far.

    Attachment 92815
    CNN became the first international television crew to enter Izium since the Ukrainians retook it from Russian forces.
    Izium has now been “liberated,” along with almost the whole of Kharkiv region, a Ukrainian military source told CNN.
    CNN’s Sam Kiley reports on why the city is a strategic loss for the Russian military.


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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    Where are you seeing this? The battle line is pretty much unchanged down there for the last two weeks aside from some of the gains Ukraine has made pushing forward on Lyman as is pointed out in the video David posted. The Russians are still very much on the back heel.
    Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Russia Closes In on Critical City in Ukraine’s East

    BAKHMUT, Ukraine — The steady rattle of machine-gun fire resonated across the outskirts of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut on Saturday morning. The sound, interspersed with the shriek of rockets and mortar fire, indicated one thing: The Russian troops were getting closer.


    Bakhmut, a city with a prewar population of 70,000, is critical to Russia’s objective of taking the rest of the mineral-rich Donbas region. When Russian forces captured the industrial city of Lysychansk in early July and cemented their control of Luhansk, one of two provinces in the Donbas, Bakhmut soon became the focus of Russia’s slow advance. And even after Russia took a crippling defeat in Ukraine’s northeast last week, when its troops lost dozens of villages and roughly a thousand square miles of territory around the city of Kharkiv, its forces still continued to attack Bakhmut.


    Ukrainian soldiers and commanders believe Bakhmut is in an increasingly tenuous position as Russian forces press from the east and southeast in an attempt to cut off the country’s supplies.
    Soldiers on the front line around the city have claimed that Russian forces in the area are mainly composed of troops from the Wagner Group, a private military company with ties to the Kremlin. Wagner troops have fought in places such as Syria and Libya — countries with a history of Russian intervention — and Ukrainian soldiers say they are deploying Russian prisoners onto the front lines.
    That the Ukrainian forces were being attacked by inmates — and not just regular Russian ranks — suggested a reason there seemed an unending supply of soldiers around Bakhmut attacking them, Ukrainian troops said.

    nytimes.com

    Continuing their drive westward, not east as I had incorrectly typed earlier.

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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    CNN became the first international television crew to enter Izium since the Ukrainians retook it from Russian forces.
    Excellent video David. The Ukrainians captured so much new kit during that offensive that it is just stunning to imagine. All of it is being refit and will be used against the Russians.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Continuing their drive westward, not east as I had incorrectly typed earlier.
    It is interesting that the Russians are still pushing on Bakhmut when they are close to losing Lyman. As the article states....

    As winter approaches, Ukrainian forces are in a position to reclaim some of Russia’s summer gains in the Donbas, especially around the small city of Lyman, an important railway juncture. It has been further isolated from Russian resupply following Ukraine’s recent capture of Izium and Kupyansk in the northwest.
    Lyman sits on the northeastern side of the Seversky Donets, a river that has given the Russian forces a de facto defensive boundary for much of the war. If Lyman falls under Ukrainian control, commanders and soldiers said, they will be in a far more advantageous position to repel future Russian offensives.
    As I have said before it is hard to get in the heads of the Russians because it would seem that they are flailing blindly with no real strategic battle plan.

  23. #8498
    Thailand Expat HermantheGerman's Avatar
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    Remember Comical Ali or Baghdad Bob?



    I think I will have to rename Putler to Comical Putin or Moscow Putler.

    What a fu*king idiot!

    In his speech on the morning of the attack on Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin justified his actions with the experience of the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941. According to him, the situation for Russia at the beginning of this year was just as dangerous as it was 81 years ago, when the National Socialists were preparing their war of annihilation against the Soviet Union. The timely "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine was necessary to prevent a repeat of the horrors endured by the people of the Soviet Union at the time, he claimed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    It is interesting that the Russians are still pushing on Bakhmut when they are close to losing Lyman. As the article states....
    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    As I have said before it is hard to get in the heads of the Russians because it would seem that they are flailing blindly with no real strategic battle plan.
    Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives that continue to advance. Russian troops continue to attack Bakhmut and various villages near Donetsk City of emotional significance to pro-war residents of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) but little other importance. The Russians are apparently directing some of the very limited reserves available in Ukraine to these efforts rather than to the vulnerable Russian defensive lines hastily thrown up along the Oskil River in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. The Russians cannot hope to make gains around Bakhmut or Donetsk City on a large enough scale to derail Ukrainian counteroffensives and appear to be continuing an almost robotic effort to gain ground in Donetsk Oblast that seems increasingly divorced from the overall realities of the theater.
    Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17 | Institute for the Study of War

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