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  1. #351
    Thailand Expat
    OhOh's Avatar
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    Today @ 11:06 PM
    Where troubles melt like lemon drops
    Russia and the United States on the verge of a second Caribbean crisis

    Biden's call to Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn't affect anything - the US is just trying to buy time

    A Russian report on one scenario of a planned "NATO Exercise", due to kick-off later this month.

    Initial 50 % is lots of historic references.

    Here is IMHO, the latter very scary 50%:

    " .....

    All of the above is not at all theoretical and descriptive in nature. It is this scheme that the NATO army has been practicing in the framework of exercises under the code name "Defender Europe" since 2018.

    With the only difference that until 2020 inclusive (the coronavirus prevented the full implementation of the plans), the northern part of Eastern Europe was considered to be the zone of the "war games": Scandinavia, the Baltic states and Poland. The main task is to deal with the logistical cross-country capacity of this space for large masses of personnel and equipment, as well as the corresponding volumes of logistics supplies.

    In the current year, 2021, "Defender Europe" will be held in the Balkans and the Black Sea region. The United States intends to transfer 20,000 of its troops by air and sea (via Greece and ports on the Adriatic) to the Balkans — to Croatia (Slunj test site), Bosnia and Herzegovina (Manjaca test site) and Northern Macedonia (Krivolak test site).

    Part of the training is also planned in Montenegro, Kosovo and Albania. In Bulgaria and Romania, air defence exercises and the firing of surface-to-surface missiles will be held. A significant part of the manoeuvres of the supply units will take place in Hungary, which will serve as a deep rear of the unfolding "war".

    To participate in the war game, the Pentagon allocates units from the 1st Cavalry and 82nd Airborne Divisions, as well as the 53rd Infantry Brigade from troops stationed in the United States. Plus, it is supposed to involve parts of the American army located in Europe. The European allies will attract another 11,000 personnel to the exercises.

    The second difference, in addition to the general geography, is the "factor of Ukraine". The north-western direction of the Russian troops is closed quite reliably, and the prospect of a "civil war" in the Baltic states is extremely unlikely. At least in the current conditions. While in the Black Sea region there is Ukraine, in which the civil war is already in its seventh year.

    I.e., the formal basic conditions for launching the "expanse of war" scheme have been created there by now. It is enough to organise some local, but loud provocation, preferably in front of TV cameras and with blood, as the process can be started. What is missing is the NATO army group, which is now preparing to be deployed under the legend of the large Defender Europe 2021 exercise.

    The goal of the United States in what is happening is quite simple – to include Ukraine in the “expanse of war" without its admission to the North Atlantic Alliance. This can only be done by an explicit order.

    Putting Russia in front of a fact that, as it seems in Washington, Moscow will not dare to react harshly.

    In this case, Washington and Brussels will be able to "finally hear Kiev's calls for help" and come to the rescue by directly entering the bloc's troops under the slogan of supposedly protecting Ukraine from the threat of possible Russian occupation. Then you can implement the "Yugoslav scenario", when the troops of the Western alliance did not see the civil war and ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia at close range. And if Russia "does not move the tanks" after that, then it will be possible to organise a direct invasion of Western troops in the L/DPR.

    In the context of the conversation between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, Vladislav Shurygin wrote well about this:

    "My source in Kiev today threw out information about a certain "Biden plan" for Ukraine, which was announced at the meeting between Blinken and Kuleba. From this meeting Kuleba came out as if on wings and said: "I am very satisfied with the meeting with Tony Blinken and our conversation. We spent an hour calmly discussing all our key issues on the agenda.<...> If you remember, after the first phone conversation with him, I wrote that a new day will begin in relations between Ukraine and America. Today I can confidently say that the day has begun, and we are already living it confidently"

    The essence of this plan consists of two points:

    1. Ukraine is rapidly adopting a law allowing the deployment of military bases of NATO and the United States on its territory.

    2. The United States enters into an agreement with the leadership of Ukraine on the deployment of bases here, and unilaterally places three of its bases in Ukraine. One by sea and two by land. All three airfields will be upgraded for the acceptance of all types of American aircraft, including heavy transport aircraft.

    This, according to the Americans, will block the Russian plan for a large-scale military operation against Ukraine, in the event of any aggravation of the situation in Donbass. Under the cover of these bases, or rather the American military presence, Kiev will be able to carry out a phased sweep of Donbass without the fear of a Russian response.

    As the source said, as part of this plan, Biden's initiative to meet with Putin and hold a summit was announced. The procedure for preparing for the meeting and discussing the agenda will allow the Russians to buy time to prepare for the adoption of the law, the conclusion of the treaty and the deployment of American troops.

    In fact, the Russians should be led by the nose for six months, which is necessary for the preparation and implementation of the American plan."

    Moscow understands this scenario and does not want to allow it. That is precisely why, as Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu said in his speech, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, as part of the annual check of combat readiness and the results of the winter period of planned training, checked the relocation of two combined-arms armies and three formations of airborne troops to the south-western border of the Russian Federation.

    In other words, it means: we don't want a war, but we're ready for it if there will be one. According to the experience of the Zapad-2019 and Kavkaz-2020 exercises, already on the tenth day of an active operation at any point of contact, the Russian army is able to have an advantage over NATO of 7 to 1, in infantry fighting vehicles – 5 to 1, in attack helicopters – 5 to 1, in barrel artillery – 4 to 1, in jet-propelled systems – 16 to 1, in short–range air defence – 24 to 1, in long-range air defence – 17 to 1, in tactical and operational-tactical missiles - the superiority of the Russian Federation will be absolute. In terms of the pace of building up our forces, we are decidedly superior to all the NATO armies, including the American one, so it is impossible to hope to beat us in this "expanse of war" or, as they say in the Pentagon, in the framework of a "multimodal operation".

    And if America does start such a game, it may very well turn out that all this "expanse of war" will eventually be under full Russian control. Regardless of any borders of NATO, the EU or any other, completely conditional, entities. It will cost everyone dearly, but do not forget that Russia is also fully ready to switch to strategic nuclear trumps. As the Russian president , "if anything, we will go to Heaven, and they will just die."

    So it turns out that literally right now there is an approach to the second Caribbean crisis. Whether it takes place or not depends on whether the Pentagon, the White House and Brussels believe in Russian resolve. Last time, although literally on the very verge of a big war, they believed it. We'll see how things turn out this time. Defender Europe 2021 is scheduled for the end of May.

    That's why Biden called Moscow for the second time, because after insulting the Russian president, he tried to sharply raise the stakes, but it was a complete bummer, and America has nothing to cover Russian "polite" arguments with, so they again began to delay time under the guise of new peace initiatives.

    Standard North American hockey practice.

    Russia and the United States on the verge of a second Caribbean crisis | Institute for International Political and Economic Strategies
    Last edited by OhOh; 13-05-2021 at 10:23 PM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  2. #352
    Thailand Expat russellsimpson's Avatar
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    Today @ 11:06 PM
    What a massive pile of utter dribble. I've rarely seen the likes of .
    War mongers must war monger.
    We must keep the war material manufacturers manufacturing war materials.
    Life goes on.

  3. #353
    Thailand Expat helge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Klondyke View Post
    I do not see my post you are referring to... (strange and unusual fact...)
    Freedom of speech...if the mods agree

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