Thread: China flies at least 20 war planes in Taiwan airspace

Originally Posted by Backspin

Nothing would change in the country. It would be a semi autonomous governorate of China.

You know this as the result of a personal assurance from President Xi?

An SAR, like Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region? Yes, that's going well.

PRC will poke, probe, threaten and in general continue to harrass the ROC but that's all they will do.

Move to invade and they will be in deep shit militarily, politically and economically.

Originally Posted by Norton

PRC will poke, probe, threaten and in general continue to harrass the ROC but that's all they will do.

I wish I were as sanguine as you are. It might not be tomorrow or next year, maybe it is five years away and things might change in the meantime. Today, there is no doubt that Xi wants Taiwan to be 'reunified' during his tenure. Does he think the USA will join a war it cannot win in Asia?

The recent PLA flights were unusual. There have been almost daily incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ. March 26th looked like this:



We all understand that the ADIZ is a claim, not a legal line. We can see that the PLA typically avoid crossing the Median Line in the Taiwan Strait, although that line too is imagined not legal, still it has been mainly but not entirely respected.
Most PLA incursions fly south of the Median Line, between Taiwan and the black dot that is Dongsha (aka Pratas Island), a Taiwan-occupied atoll that is officially a national park. They typically fly into the ADIZ for some way, then turn around and return home. On March 26th, a day after Taiwan signed a new coastguard agreement with the US, some planes didn't turn around. At least one nuclear capable bomber and another plane swung north to approach Taiwan's less-defended east coast.

Last year saw the most PLA incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ since 1996. Taiwan says the cost of responding to those incursions was USD 900 million in 2020. It isn't only money, Taiwan has also said that the continual scrambling of their fighters is exhausting their pilots. Slowly the giant PLA is wearing their military down.

The Taiwan people, on the other hand, are largely committed to remaining an independent democracy. They won't give up without a fight.

Originally Posted by Shutree

They won't give up without a fight.

One hopes "the fight" remain enclosed within Tiawan's ballot boxes.

Originally Posted by OhOh

One hopes "the fight" remain enclosed within Tiawan's ballot boxes.

How very klondyke-esque...

Originally Posted by OhOh

One hopes "the fight" remain enclosed within Tiawan's ballot boxes.

The Chinese communist party doesn't care what happens in others' ballot boxes, they'll invade anyway but - they're too busy getting 99.89% approval in theirs

All it would take is one US Navy ship docking in Taiwan and that would trigger war per this 2017 article.

China Threatened War If the US Navy Visits Taiwan, and It Just Might

China threatened to go to war if the US Navy visits Taiwan, and Trump just signed a bill saying it might

Tensions have risen in recent days after a senior Chinese diplomat threatened China would invade Taiwan if any U.S. warships made port visits to the island which China claims as its own territory.


On Monday, Chinese jets carried out "island encirclement patrols" around Taiwan, with state media showing pictures of bombers with cruise missiles slung under their wings as they carried out the exercise.

Maybe they will just play a longer game, like they have with hong kong over the last 20 odd years.. Gradually change things until it's nothing but an extension of Beijing. In Taiwans case, getting ohoh like candidates into government until they can triumphantly march into Taiwan virtually unopposed, apart from a few anti government "western backed terrorists" at "the request of the people."

^ A, but the difference between HK and Taiwan is huge.
HK was part of China and on lease. HKers knew this accepted it. Taiwanese are the opposite.


And if China invades . . . they will be an occupying force. Not such a good PR look and unsustainable. Think they can sink even lower in terms of their neighbours trusting them?

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

Maybe they will just play a longer game

Agree. Going to be a very long game but will be decided at the ROC ballot box.

Originally Posted by Backspin

and Trump just signed a bill

Did he?

Trump who?

^


skidmark just posts, doesn't understand what he is posting.

Originally Posted by TheRealKW

Did he?

Trump who?

I doubt it's his restaurant bill . . .

Originally Posted by lom

skidmark just posts, doesn't understand what he is posting.

Why does this surprise you, lom?

Originally Posted by Norton

They certainly are. Military strength is but one part of the "war" equation. Does Xi really want to provoke the response to an invasion. Think not. To invade Taiwan China would have to do it with amphibious forces. The international reaction to that would be severe. Some like the US sending a show of force to the straights. Others with sanctions of all sorts. Neighbors Japan and Korea would likely deem it a threat to them and get involved in condeming the action with certainly sanctions and perhaps naval forces in the straights.

Xi, is far to smart to do more than what he is now doing. Invasion would be stepping way over the line of international acceptance.

A bigger threat to Xi would be to lose Taiwan. And allow it to become a US military outpost.

Originally Posted by Backspin

It probably should if it wants to prevent the US from taking it.

Why in the fuck are you so anxious to show your stupidity?

Originally Posted by lom

^


skidmark just posts, doesn't understand what he is posting.

Fuck a kite. It says the article was from 2017. And the point was , ONE US ship docking means war. Which some people here clearly don't know.

Originally Posted by beachbound

Why in the fuck are you so anxious to show your stupidity?

I'll get you the quote verbatim from the Chinese foreign minister. Tell me why a US navy ship hasn't docked in Taiwan.

You clearly don't know anything about the subject. If you are going to be condescending at least be right.

Originally Posted by Backspin

You clearly don't know anything about the subject.

Originally Posted by Backspin

A bigger threat to Xi would be to lose Taiwan.

Originally Posted by Backspin

If you are going to be condescending at least be right.

It hurts to read your posts

Originally Posted by Backspin

It says right here "for political and personal reasons, Xi is likely to retake the island by force if necessary before he steps down."

It says right there Opinion and it says Deng Yuwen who is a journalist so it is nothing more than his opinion.

Originally Posted by Backspin

Morons who get all their info from Anderson Cooper 360 don't seem to have any idea how China speaks about Taiwan. It says right here "for political and personal reasons, Xi is likely to retake the island by force if necessary before he steps down."

Originally Posted by lom

It says right there Opinion and it says Deng Yuwen who is a journalist so it is nothing more than his opinion.

It hurts to read his posts - he won't understand the point you're making



(Xi is stepping down in 2033??? )

Originally Posted by lom

It says right there Opinion and it says Deng Yuwen who is a journalist so it is nothing more than his opinion.

That's right. But cvnts were mocking me for having that opinion like it was outlandish nonsense. If it was so outlandish , you wouldn't be reading the same opinion in the South China Morning Post.

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

Maybe they will just play a longer game, like they have with hong kong over the last 20 odd years.

There is no Joint Declaration on Taiwan to break. The chinkies have never agreed to leave it alone.

Apples and Oranges.