Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 26 to 50 of 51
  1. #26
    Pedantic bastard
    nidhogg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    15,876
    ^fair points. I worry that Xi is flexing his muscles (india and taiwan) because he knows there is a fucktard in the White house.

  2. #27
    Thailand Expat HermantheGerman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Last Online
    Today @ 03:28 AM
    Location
    Germany/Satthahip
    Posts
    5,826
    Quote Originally Posted by HuangLao View Post
    That'll be awhile, if it ever manifest.
    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    Fuck off Jeff

    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...^555...been a while since I've seen the Jeff salute...

    他媽的傑


    Tā mā de jiť fū


  3. #28
    Member
    Shutree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Last Online
    19-10-2020 @ 05:47 PM
    Location
    One heartbeat away from eternity
    Posts
    710
    Quote Originally Posted by HuangLao View Post
    That'll be awhile, if it ever manifest.
    It is not without the bounds of possibility that Jeff is calling it right. Scary thought, not impossible.

  4. #29
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    12,895
    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    Is it 'winnable' for the US?
    ...depends on the meaning of "winnable"...if the Taiwanese can hold out for 2-3 days, US will have time to get its bombers and fighters in place...no contest in the air war over the strait while US bombers level Chinese launch facilities and wither the attack. I don't think Xi would risk losing enormous face until it is perfectly clear that Chinese forces can win and US forces will not intervene...
    Majestically enthroned amid the vulgar herd

  5. #30
    Alpha Monger
    Backspin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
    Last Online
    Today @ 06:50 AM
    Location
    Vancouver
    Posts
    2,435
    Taiwan is nuclear level sensitive for China.

    So any Seppo designs on taking an island an inch away from mainland China and historic Chinese territory is a pipe dream.

    Just like Crimea. A few PRC troops would be dispatched and it would be over in a day. Taiwan has no nukes. Mainland China does

  6. #31
    Alpha Monger
    Backspin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
    Last Online
    Today @ 06:50 AM
    Location
    Vancouver
    Posts
    2,435
    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    China has no successful combat operations outside its boarder in its history. In 1979 China attempted to attack Vietnam and was badly bloodied by the Viets forcing them to retreat in defeat. China is still fuming over that humiliation decades later.

    Attacking Taiwan will not be an easy task for any country let alone one with absolutely no experience in amphibious warfare. The factor that is getting overlooked here is that the Chinese are afraid of being humiliated again as they were in '79.

    The won't be attacking Taiwan anytime in the near future it is all empty bluster.
    Fisher Price

    My first geopolitics

  7. #32
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    69,810
    The chinkies won't invade Taiwan. But they won't let it go independent either.

    So they keep up this campaign of threatening and trying to scare them, because that's how they roll.

  8. #33
    Super Expat Plan B's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Last Online
    Today @ 06:32 AM
    Location
    Inside your head
    Posts
    5,164
    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    if the Taiwanese can hold out for 2-3 days, US will have time to get its bombers and fighters in place...
    I'm sure the US will have plenty of time to get its shit together. An invasion force is not just dispatched on a whim. It's a logistical nightmare that involves massing large amounts of men, tanks, equipment, transports, subs, air cover in one place with supply lines, space constraints, security issues, infrastructure needs. It's not something any country can easily hide. Think D-Day level preparations. It's not the same as chucking the kids in the car for a weekend away.
    Dear Anti-vaxers: Enjoy your free trial.

  9. #34
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    69,810
    Quote Originally Posted by Plan B View Post
    I'm sure the US will have plenty of time to get its shit together. An invasion force is not just dispatched on a whim. It's a logistical nightmare that involves massing large amounts of men, tanks, equipment, transports, subs, air cover in one place with supply lines, space constraints, security issues, infrastructure needs. It's not something any country can easily hide. Think D-Day level preparations. It's not the same as chucking the kids in the car for a weekend away.
    Recent history tells us supremacy in the air is the key to any land invasion.

    So the first thing they would have to do is bomb the shit out of Chinastan's military and logistics infrastructure.

    That's probably more bombing than they've got bombs for.

    Unless.......


    Don't even think about it.

  10. #35
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Last Online
    Today @ 06:25 AM
    Location
    Roiet
    Posts
    31,196
    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    The chinkies won't invade Taiwan. But they won't let it go independent either.

    So they keep up this campaign of threatening and trying to scare them, because that's how they roll.
    Agree. Xi will as always talk the talk but let us not ignore the fact he as in most all national leaders is restrained by the monied elite.

    Xi takes an action which financially hurts the rich, he is gone. He got the job via support from the elite and he knows will lose the job when that support group deems time for him to go.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.

  11. #36
    Alpha Monger
    Backspin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
    Last Online
    Today @ 06:50 AM
    Location
    Vancouver
    Posts
    2,435
    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Agree. Xi will as always talk the talk but let us not ignore the fact he as in most all national leaders is restrained by the monied elite.

    Xi takes an action which financially hurts the rich, he is gone. He got the job via support from the elite and he knows will lose the job when that support group deems time for him to go.
    That's not how the Chinese system is set up. It's not the USA. The class of billionaires in China have nothing to do with the government in the way that the US billionaires do

  12. #37
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    11,501
    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Taiwan is nuclear level sensitive for China.

    So any Seppo designs on taking an island an inch away from mainland China and historic Chinese territory is a pipe dream.

    Just like Crimea. A few PRC troops would be dispatched and it would be over in a day. Taiwan has no nukes. Mainland China does
    Leaves me bewildered why Taiwan is spending >$50bn on fighters that would be overwhelmed in no time at all in a military engagement, and that's if they decide to use them rather than surrender and hand them over for China to copy and sell at half price.

  13. #38
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    12,895
    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    Leaves me bewildered why Taiwan is spending >$50bn on fighters that would be overwhelmed in no time at all in a military engagement,
    ...you may be underestimating Taiwanese determination and US training and grossly overestimating Chinese fighter pilots...

  14. #39
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    11,501
    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Agree. Xi will as always talk the talk but let us not ignore the fact he as in most all national leaders is restrained by the monied elite.

    Xi takes an action which financially hurts the rich, he is gone. He got the job via support from the elite and he knows will lose the job when that support group deems time for him to go.
    Doesn't matter if he leaves or is pushed, the way I see it the CPCs ideological long game provides for continuity with goals that are barely affected by leadership change.

  15. #40
    In Uranus
    bsnub's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    21,571
    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...you may be underestimating Taiwanese determination and US training and grossly overestimating Chinese fighter pilots...
    His comments are just dumb, and he is making a big assumption that the US would not respond in kind with its own fighters based in Japan, Guam, South Korea and the likelihood that there would be at least a couple of aircraft carrier battle groups in the area by that time because the US would be well aware that the Chinese were planning an attack due to troop movements.

    That does not even factor in that ROC has just under 300 combat aircraft 115 of which are F-16s, and they happen to be US trained.

  16. #41
    Your local I.Q. Monitor
    Hugh Cow's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 11:42 AM
    Location
    Qld/Bangkok
    Posts
    2,781
    I would find it difficult to believe The US military have not practised the chinese invasion scenario.

  17. #42
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    11,501
    I'm sure they have, but to paraphrase a general, no military plan works beyond the first engagement.

  18. #43
    Thailand Expat TheRealKW's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2019
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    4,051
    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    I'm sure they have, but to paraphrase a general, no military plan works beyond the first engagement.
    Sun Tzu
    Last edited by TheRealKW; 22-08-2020 at 02:18 PM.

  19. #44
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    11,501
    Sun Tzu, yes that's him, brilliant read btw

  20. #45
    Super Expat Plan B's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Last Online
    Today @ 06:32 AM
    Location
    Inside your head
    Posts
    5,164
    ^

    No, Mike Tyson.

  21. #46
    Super Expat Plan B's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Last Online
    Today @ 06:32 AM
    Location
    Inside your head
    Posts
    5,164
    Last edited by Plan B; 22-08-2020 at 03:00 PM.

  22. #47
    Pedantic bastard
    nidhogg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    15,876
    Quote Originally Posted by TheRealKW View Post
    Sun Zao
    Fraid not. It was first said by Field Marshal Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke (1800-1891)

    "no plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force" (translation)

    Helmuth von Moltke the Elder - Wikiquote

  23. #48
    Thailand Expat TheRealKW's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2019
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    4,051
    Quote Originally Posted by nidhogg View Post
    Fraid not. It was first said by Field Marshal Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke (1800-1891)

    "no plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force" (translation)

    Helmuth von Moltke the Elder - Wikiquote
    Fair enough, I stand corrected. I also misspelled his name.

  24. #49
    Pedantic bastard
    nidhogg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    15,876
    Quote Originally Posted by TheRealKW View Post
    Fair enough, I stand corrected. I also misspelled his name.
    No worries. I am just chuffed that I knew it was not a Sun Tzu quote.

  25. #50
    Thailand Expat
    OhOh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Last Online
    Yesterday @ 09:16 PM
    Location
    Where troubles melt like lemon drops
    Posts
    20,600
    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Cow View Post
    I would find it difficult to believe The US military have not practised the chinese invasion scenario.
    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...depends on the meaning of "winnable"...if the Taiwanese can hold out for 2-3 days, US will have time to get its bombers and fighters in place...no contest in the air war over the strait while US bombers level Chinese launch facilities and wither the attack.
    Things are allegedly not so cut and dried if such an event were to happen.

    Is Taiwan Worth It?-logo-jpg

    The US could no longer win a war against China


    May 25, 202011:05am

    "China’s navy has just completed a mission that has left US officials terrified – and it has serious implications for Australia’s security.

    Unnamed US defence sources reportedly told The Times that such a conflict was the scenario of a recent intensive war game session conducted by the Pentagon. The results, they say, were “eye-opening”.

    The scenarios were different and diverse. Some involved clashes in the South and East China Seas. One – the worst-case scenario – was an out-and-out war in 2030.

    The US reportedly came out second-best every time.


    Is Taiwan Worth It?-ned-735-china-s-secret-new
    "

    China, US: War games show America couldn’t beat China in a war
    Last edited by OhOh; 22-08-2020 at 05:15 PM.
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •