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  1. #1
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Post Covid-19 ... the New Normal

    Some thoughts on the Macro Trends ...

    ---

    Geopolitics and globalisation


    COVID-19 will probably accelerate the deterioration in US political hegemony and power being shared across more countries, including China.

    "Peak globalisation, the Splinternet tech war and now the diverging responses of the US and China to COVID-19 have highlighted the growing split in governance opinions across the globe,"

    "Furthermore, combined with the declining influence of OPEC (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) owing to the continued rise of renewables, this could result in some of the largest shifts in power ever seen in modern economic history."

    The economic ascent of China, and the decline of manufacturing in the United States and Europe since 1990, had already seen a rise in anti-globalisation sentiment before COVID-19.

    In the post-coronavirus world, there could be a major realigning of global supply chains as western powers bring more manufacturing onshore.

    "It is likely to drive a much faster-than-expected shift in manufacturing away from China," they say.

    "Increased focus on sustainability, social impact and climate change should also accelerate deglobalisation."

    Some analysts warned of the economic impacts of a pandemic like COVID-19. Here'''s what they think might happen next - ABC News


    Please add what you've read/observed
    Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago ...


  2. #2
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    "Increased focus on sustainability, social impact and climate change should also accelerate deglobalisation."
    To me, the realisation that humanity has so much more in common than it has divisions can hardly be called 'deglobalisation'.

    Apart from that, just an acceleration of what most people with eyes to see knew needed to happen.

    Less air travel, less concentration of wealth amongst multi nationals and more sustainable and localised energy production.

    Or alternatively of course, the jackboot could just come down again and we'll all remain in the thrall of filth in pinstripes, shorting, currency traders and all the other cnuts.

  3. #3
    Thailand Expat Saint Willy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    less concentration of wealth amongst multi nationals
    Optimistic.

  4. #4
    กงเกวียนกำเกวียน HuangLao's Avatar
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    Some might be awaiting nature's final extermination period directed towards particular groups.

    Could only be beneficial.
    Obvious.

  5. #5
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    the globalization has already achieved its targets anyhow, that is making rich countries poorer, and poor countries richer

    COVID broke this, is that a good thing or a bad thing? like everything, this is a grey area

  6. #6
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    Please add what you've read/observed
    ...Bloomberg opinion writers have covered these possible developments on their website and on TV...their conclusions: nobody knows with certainty what will happen when (if) the virus infestation becomes less serious...the pandemic is an enormous black swan that will flap enthusiastically for some time to come and probably confound most predictions about outcomes...best to sit tight and see what happens...
    Majestically enthroned amid the vulgar herd

  7. #7
    fcuked off SKkin's Avatar
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    'the new normal' meh...

  8. #8
    กงเกวียนกำเกวียน HuangLao's Avatar
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    99+% recovery/unaffected/mild or nominal illness.

    The new normal [whatever that is].

    Some will be infected, some not.
    Some will die.
    Most will recover.

    Dengue, malaria, and influenza kills millions every year.
    Never hear about it, though.
    Not marketable, so it can't be sensationalized.
    Last edited by HuangLao; 17-05-2020 at 07:32 PM. Reason: Lightin' one up as we speak...

  9. #9
    In Uranus
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    The new normal is that we are in the middle of a pandemic and will continue to be so especially if you are unfortunate enough to be an American.

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