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  1. #1
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    Is an Italeave coming closer?

    Italy is struggling in many ways. Internal politics, financial demands and most current, it's struggle against the epidemic of the coronavirus Covid-19 epidemic.

    It is suggested there are two options:

    1. Accept an EU offer of financial assistance and become another Greece.
    2. Hold a national referendum on exiting the EU. If won, where will it find any assistance?

    Merkel Survives the Coronapocalypse, but the EU Won’t

    Tom Luongo April 20, 2020


    "No matter how hard I try to dig German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s political grave she proves more adept at staying alive than a cockroach in a woodpile. And the recent fight amongst European Union members over “Coronabonds” has proven yet another escape path for her to avoid political termination. Thanks to Merkel holding the line on debt mutualization and EU fiscal integration, which is very unpopular in Germany, her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is now polling at levels it hasn’t enjoyed since before the last general election in 2017.

    According to Europe Elects, the latest polling out of Germany has the CDU commanding around 35-37% of German voters. This is a party that was in shambles not two months ago after Merkel heir apparent Annagret Kramp-Karrenbauer stepped down as CDU leader, prompting a new leadership vote, which, conveniently for Merkel, has now been postponed indefinitely thanks to the COVID-19 crisis.

    Some of that is the normal “rally around the current leader” that occurs during any crisis. President Trump’s numbers in the U.S. have been strong despite the twin crises here. Even marginal leaders like Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte in Italy have seen their numbers rise.

    But a 15-point bump for Merkel is tremendous and it only happens in conjunction with her refusing to cave on Germany being seen bailing out southern Europe. It may win her support domestically, but it sets up a disastrous future for the European Union.

    As COVID-19 rages across Europe the two major factions within the EU have been fighting a desperate battle for its future with the issue of debt mutualization being the fulcrum. Now, I believe wholly that the use of lock downs and draconian measures to fight the disease have been more political than practical. Using a public health care crisis to advance a political agenda is the height of cynicism and megalomania.

    On the one side we have the Euro-integrationists, led by French President Emmanuel Macron. On the other are the fiscal conservatives led by Merkel, who has given way to Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to be the point man for Macron’s derision.

    Trapped in the middle is the real human tragedy in northern Italy where thousands of people have died from the toxic mix of a lack of medical infrastructure, high concentration of high-risk people and lack of knowledge of how to fight the disease.

    Worse than that, the government in Italy was put together to spearhead this fight for Eurobonds since Conte was kept in power to ensure Lega’s Matteo Salvini didn’t and fight Macron and Merkel by threatening to leave the euro-zone.

    Whether you believe the EU’s response, or, more accurately, lack thereof, to Italy’s plight was motivated by malice or incompetence the result is the same. Thousands of Italians died and weakened already weak bonds between Italy and the rest of the EU technocracy.

    As I said in an article back on March 14th:


    So in the midst of this mess comes COVID-19 and the uncoordinated and inept response to it from the political center of Europe to date. Only now are they coming to the conclusion they need to restrict travel, after sitting on their hands for a few weeks while Italians died by the hundreds.

    And do you think that’s engendering waves of love and affection among Italians towards Germans?
    If you do then you don’t know Italians… at all.

    And this is your signal that this is the beginning of the real crisis. Because while COVID-19 may have been the catalyst for the breakdown of capital markets, capital markets were simply waiting for that spark to occur.

    Honestly I wasn’t harsh enough in my assessment of what was happening back then, but it was clear that this crisis was being used to push forward EU integrationist plans of Macron and ECB President Christine Lagarde trying to strongarm the Germans and the Dutch into their position.

    By the meeting on March 26th that plan failed. Rutte, Merkel, Austrian Chancellor Sebastain Kurz and Norway all held their ground and the meeting would have ended in a fistfight had it not been held using social distancing rules via teleconference.

    That meeting set up last week’s which saw Italy cave to German and Dutch intransigence. Macron and Lagarde lost, securing just $500 billion in new loans but no ECB bond issuance. And the issue now is whether Conte will partake of the program or not.

    His failure to act as Macron’s Agent of Shame to secure the EU’s future now puts the whole European project in jeopardy because Conte’s government is in serious trouble in Italy. Moreover, this failure was likely unexpected because now even the hardest-core EU integrationists in Italy’s government are wondering why they are part of the EU.

    Meanwhile the polls in Italy haven’t really budged with Salvini’s Lega holding onto around 30% of the electorate with the Brothers of Italy holding onto recent gains in the mid-teens.

    Moreover, now the question of EU membership in Italy is a coin flip. Two different polls (here and here) have it well within the margin of error.

    Lastly, and most importantly, Conte’s coalition government is split on whether to avail itself of the newly-approved loans. Reuters reported that the divisions within the Italian coalition are rising and portend a split. In a show of political spine not seen in over a year senior partner Five Star Movement (M5S) is opposed while the Eurocentric Democrats are all for it since, as of right now, there are no strings attached to the money.

    Conte will have to settle the dispute before a video conference among European leaders on April 23 when Italy will be expected to make its position clear.

    He tried to defuse the quarrel on Wednesday, warning in a Facebook post that the ESM “risks dividing the whole of Italy,” and adding that more information was needed on the terms of any credit lines before a final decision could be taken.

    Until these details are clear, discussing whether an ESM loan is in Italy’s interests is “a merely abstract and schematic debate,” Conte said.

    But we all know there will be strings in the end. If you doubt that assertion, I suggest you ask Greece how about this. So, Conte has his work cut out for himself. There is real urgency now in the EU to get even token Eurobonds approved before Germany takes over the Presidency of the European Commission in July, where it will set the agenda on the EU’s next seven-year budget.

    After years of kicking the can down the road to avoid a messy political upheaval, which is Merkel’s trademark move, nothing has changed in the EU when it comes to fixing its untenable structure. And for this reason, as long as Angela Merkel is on the stage, there will be no European dream.

    All Merkel ever does is manipulate events back to the previous status quo. She has no capacity or stomach to face the German voters nor will she allow anyone else to fully express themselves. Her handling of Brexit negotiations was a fiasco for the EU, thankfully, and her handling of Italy today is just as inept.

    With Salvini waiting in the wings, the people ready to revolt over Germany’s handling of the crisis and a weak coalition government put in place by Merkel to hold things together, the probability of Italeave occurring rises daily.
    So, while Merkel may have won this latest battle in the end she may lose the war for the EU. And, in the ultimate irony, the people of Europe may have her to thank for their deliverance from its dysfunction.

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/ne...e-but-eu-wont/
    A tray full of GOLD is not worth a moment in time.

  2. #2
    ความรู้ลึกลับ HuangLao's Avatar
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    Not over as of yet.
    Last edited by HuangLao; 22-04-2020 at 05:15 AM.

  3. #3
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    Another Possible,Collapse.

  4. #4
    Thailand Expat lom's Avatar
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    ^^^
    Check your source before posting!

    Strategic Culture Foundation - Media Bias/Fact Check

  5. #5
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Any source without an axe to grind doesn't seem to attract his attention.

    Clearly both Jeff and Chico had more sense than to waste their time reading it.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by lom View Post
    ^^^
    Check your source before posting!
    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    a loony bent
    Thank you for your thoughtful comments, on the persons opinion. Most enlightening.


  7. #7
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Another one of HoHo's silly whackjob websites.

    Honestly you could buy a domain called "Global-strategic-paradigm.com", fill it with utter bollocks and whackjobs like HoHo will be along like moths to a flame.

  8. #8
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Another one of HoHo's silly whackjob websites.
    Thank you for your thoughtful comments, on the persons opinion. Most enlightening.

  9. #9
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh View Post
    Thank you for your thoughtful comments, on the persons opinion. Most enlightening.
    You forgot:

    utter bollocks

  10. #10
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    We must thank OhOh, however, for showing us what kind of whackjob sites there are and how people expend a lot of energy in writing their tin-foil hat garbage.

    On 'topic', though - staying within a union that will help you survive or leaving it and fail . . . yea, tough call for armchair wankers who think Varoufakis is a real socialist without an agenda

  11. #11
    Your local I.Q. Monitor
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    Cant possibly see how Italy, especially now in quite a financially week state, could achieve any possible advantage from leaving the euro let alone the E.U. One would imagine it will need help from the ECB for quite some time as well as other member states.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Cow View Post
    Cant possibly see how Italy, especially now in quite a financially week state, could achieve any possible advantage from leaving the euro let alone the E.U. One would imagine it will need help from the ECB for quite some time as well as other member states.
    ...dearest Holy Cow: Italy leaves the Euro zone and starts printing its own currency. That means its local debts are repayable in (say) the new Musolira of which the government can print as much as it likes. With local debt now under local control, Italy may use its hard currency reserves to pay off hard currency debt. Of course, the Musolira will decline in value as more of it is printed to satisfy the demand for social services spending, which suggests that local interest rates will have to rise to support the new currency. The Italian bureaucracies are well-known for pushing off hard decisions to...domani: a time which never arrives. Result: stagnation, a rise in populism, a decline in living standards, even less efficient revolving-door political administrations and further evidence that Italy, as a country, is essentially ungovernable and needs to be colonized by the Germans...

    ... moo...
    Majestically enthroned amid the vulgar herd

  13. #13
    disturbance in the Turnip baldrick's Avatar
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    does vlad stroke one out when he closes his eyes and dreams of a europe not united ?

  14. #14
    Thailand Expat lom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by baldrick View Post
    does vlad stroke one out when he closes his eyes and dreams of a europe not united ?
    Not only he, donald and xi also do that

  15. #15
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by baldrick View Post
    does vlad stroke one out when he closes his eyes and dreams of a europe not united ?
    Vlad will also know that regimes like his have a use-by date

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    That means its local debts are repayable in (say) the new Musolira of which the government can print as much as it likes.
    BTW, who cares about "re-paying debts" in this time?

    (Perhaps this country?)
    https://www.usdebtclock.org/

  17. #17
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Klondyke View Post
    BTW, who cares about "re-paying debts" in this time?
    Most countries do and constantly highlighting the US in any and all posts makes you less than dim

  18. #18
    Member Bettyboo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...dearest Holy Cow: Italy leaves the Euro zone and starts printing its own currency. That means its local debts are repayable in (say) the new Musolira of which the government can print as much as it likes. With local debt now under local control, Italy may use its hard currency reserves to pay off hard currency debt. Of course, the Musolira will decline in value as more of it is printed to satisfy the demand for social services spending, which suggests that local interest rates will have to rise to support the new currency. The Italian bureaucracies are well-known for pushing off hard decisions to...domani: a time which never arrives. Result: stagnation, a rise in populism, a decline in living standards, even less efficient revolving-door political administrations and further evidence that Italy, as a country, is essentially ungovernable and needs to be colonized by the Germans...

    ... moo...
    Why do you bother stating the obvious to these folks??? When Italy leaves, then Spain and Portugal, it will be everyone's fault bu the EUs... UK and Italy being two of the top 4 financial contributors, that'll leave the Yermins and Frogs to fight it out, as usual, they will both lose...

    The ECB is very powerful, but works on behalf of the Yermins - Southern Europe hates this situation and would be better off with their own central banks (whether or not they manage financial situations well or not is moot, they'd be able to focus on their own needs if they had their own central banks).
    How do I post these pictures???

  19. #19
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    Overall, we rate the Strategic Culture Foundation (SCF) a Questionable source based on extreme right wing bias, promotion of Russian propaganda and conspiracy theories as well as a complete lack of transparency with the goal to deceive readers. This is not a credible source.
    No surprise HoDoh and his shit sources.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    When Italy leaves
    They are not going to leave. The article is fake news. Look at the source FFS.

  20. #20
    Member Bettyboo's Avatar
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    Snubs, it is one article. There are many on this subject from across the board - Italy is in a bad place right now.

    I've pro-EU Italian work colleagues who tell me that Italy is very close to leaving; public support is marginal but heading that way. How the Covid-19 monies are managed across the EU, and particularly how it's perceived in Italy is gonna be crucial.

  21. #21
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Certainly there is no shortage of EU scepticism, but exiting the Euro would be disastrous for Italy.

    Impossible to analyse the impact of Covid, but the country will surely take note of what an utter clusterfcuk the UK has been compared to the EU in fighting it.

  22. #22
    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    The ECB is very powerful, but works on behalf of the Yermins - Southern Europe hates this situation and would be better off with their own central banks
    Yea . . . you need to let go of your anti-German rhetoric as it makes the rest of your post look more than ridiculous - the interesting thing is that most southern Europeans would prefer to have the German central bank run their affairs as they seemingly do a better job than their own.

    Italy isn't going to leave the EU despite the articles that OhOh pushes his agenda with.

  23. #23
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    TBH, what isn't disastrous for Italy? What ever wasn't?

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Italy isn't going to leave the EU despite the articles that OhOh pushes his agenda with.
    Exactly.

  25. #25
    Thailand Expat Pragmatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Italy isn't going to leave the EU
    What makes you so sure? Honest question.

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