1. #3801
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Who cares what Moore thinks last month or three months ago?



    You'll still vote Trump regardless of the latest revelations of his lies (or the next... or the next... or...), right bowie.


  2. #3802
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Harry, you never replied

    ---

    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    Don't underestimate the power of the Dark Side Luke ...

    Attachment 57251
    You know that reflects the book and not the actual odds right?
    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    <snip>

    Harry, out of curiosity, what do you believe the 'actual odds' are?

    Who sets them?

    How are they assessed?

    How are they changed as political circumstances change?

  3. #3803
    Thailand Expat helge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AntRobertson View Post
    Who cares what Moore thinks last month or three months ago?
    Except he called it last time and we didn't

  4. #3804
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    Trump rally is nothing but a stooge fest. Just take a look at the white trash in attendance.

  5. #3805
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    Harry, you never replied

    ---
    My reply from your litany of silly questions is that you have no idea what bookmaking means.

  6. #3806
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    My reply from your litany of silly questions is that you have no idea what bookmaking means.
    I know what bookmaking means.

    I asked you what you thought were the 'actual odds' as you described them.

    Unless, of course, you don't know.



    I know that you wouldn't fall for the trap that the 'actual odds' are what the Polls suggest because Hillary Clinton is President now ... correct
    Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago ...


  7. #3807
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    I know what bookmaking means.

    I asked you what you thought were the 'actual odds' as you described them.

    Unless, of course, you don't know.


    I know that you wouldn't fall for the trap that the 'actual odds' are what the Polls suggest because Hillary Clinton is President now ... correct
    I would say the odds are more in Biden's favour.

    And the polls suggested that Clinton was going to win the popular vote by almost exactly the margin she did.

    So what do you want to talk about. The betting odds? Or the probability of Biden winning the electoral college?

  8. #3808
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    This is the current polling in battleground states. I don't know the margin of error for each poll - it's normally 1-2% - but you get the idea.

    And I don't think Clinton had those leads in 2016.


    2020 US Presidential Race-untitled-jpg

  9. #3809
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    ^ ^^ Fair comments

  10. #3810
    Elite Mumbler
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    This is the current polling in battleground states. I don't know the margin of error for each poll - it's normally 1-2% - but you get the idea.

    And I don't think Clinton had those leads in 2016.
    I fear that the Democrats will get it wrong again on which states are the battle states. The Republicans are much more savvy at targeting than the Dems are. Cambridge Analytica proved that in Brexit and the 2016 election.

  11. #3811
    Thailand Expat harrybarracuda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pickel View Post
    I fear that the Democrats will get it wrong again on which states are the battle states. The Republicans are much more savvy at targeting than the Dems are. Cambridge Analytica proved that in Brexit and the 2016 election.
    I still think baldy and McConnell will organise an October handout. In fact, I'd say they'll bet the farm on it.

  12. #3812
    En route
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    They're getting desperate.
    Biden isn't an incoherent babbling buffoon so all they can come up with is that he must be on drugs.


    Trump uses Fox News interview to accuse Biden of taking drugs | US news | The Guardian

  13. #3813
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cujo View Post
    Biden isn't an incoherent babbling buffoon so all they can come up with is that he must be on drugs.
    Yes, that's a new one . . .

  14. #3814
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Not just new; having two completely unsuitable candidates running for the most powerful office on earth is laughable enough, but that pales into insignificance if they need to be drug tested.


  15. #3815
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    having two completely unsuitable candidates running for the most powerful office on earth is laughable enough,
    Why is Joe Biden completely unsuitable Jabir?

  16. #3816
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    Quote Originally Posted by aging one View Post
    Why is Joe Biden completely unsuitable Jabir?
    Fair question . . . why?

  17. #3817
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    and why does biden "need" to be drug tested"?

    because trump said so?

  18. #3818
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Most importantly of all, what's the drug he's supposed to be taking that suddenly makes you more youthful, energetic and articulate? Asking for a friend...










    ...but let's be honest here it's more of Trumps gaslighting and projecting. He was dribbling on in 2016 about Hilary being tested too because narcissists like him accuse others of what they do and that Adderall is a helluva drug!

  19. #3819
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    Get a look at his tax records too

  20. #3820
    Thailand Expat helge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aging one View Post
    Why is Joe Biden completely unsuitable Jabir?
    Try look at it this way then.

    Forget his politics etc for a while

    It doesn't look like Biden is going to trash Trump in november.

    Here it comes:
    Any democrat candidate, that can't beat a sick puppy like Trump, by a landslide, is not the right candidate.

    Easy, ain't it

    And please don't blame the voters

  21. #3821
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by helge View Post
    And please don't blame the voters
    Why not.

    Anyone still voting for Trump at this stage is either a moron and/or a racist and/or mentally unstable and/or directly related to him (those things are not mutually exclusive).

  22. #3822
    Thailand Expat helge's Avatar
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    I think you would vote for Biden as "the lesser of two evils".

    Some right leaning folks could feel the same and vote Trump.

    Anyway

    All the democrats have to do, is getting their voters out.

    But have they blown it with Biden ?

    Let's see

    I think Trump will win

  23. #3823
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by helge View Post
    I think you would vote for Biden as "the lesser of two evils".

    Some right leaning folks could feel the same and vote Trump.
    That doesn't hold up though. I think more than a few used it as a rationale in '16 however whatever his faults Biden is basically a decent human being and after four years it is more clear than it ever was that Trump simply just isn't.

    Anyone using the 'lessor of' justification to vote Trump is lying to themselves and was always going to vote Trump anyway.

  24. #3824
    Thailand Expat helge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AntRobertson View Post
    Anyone using the 'lessor of' justification to vote Trump is lying to themselves and was always going to vote Trump anyway.

    Holding up or not.

    Hard for me and you to meassure if they lie or not

    If they decide to vote Biden, then they aren't lying ?

    I know that several "left leaners" here on TD has used the 'lesser evil' term.

    Are they lying too ?



    Don't underestimate the riots and unrest. it's water on the Trump mill.

  25. #3825
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by helge View Post
    Try look at it this way then.

    Forget his politics etc for a while

    It doesn't look like Biden is going to trash Trump in november.

    Here it comes:
    Any democrat candidate, that can't beat a sick puppy like Trump, by a landslide, is not the right candidate.

    Easy, ain't it

    And please don't blame the voters
    Fair comment, and regardless of wishful thinking, detractors can't have it both ways. Sure it's heresy, but if Biden does not trash by many accounts the worst potus in American history, it's reasonable to suggest that he is not close to being a suitable candidate. That said, since we must blame anyone but the Party, maybe we could try something novel, like Trump recruited his Russian mates to rig the election, again, which is the only way he could have beaten Clinton in the previous circus.

    Now I expect to be reminded by the usual suspects that a) I know nothing about US politics, only they do, and b) that Biden's nomination had nothing to do with backroom horsetrading, and all to do with a crisp, clear and transparent set of primaries over which the Party has no control.

    As it stands, should Biden scrape through, it looks like the deal is for Harris to become potus with him warming her seat as caretaker. And before the villagers sharpen their pitchforks, obviously I can't vote, but if the Dems cared enough for the country to run a suitable candidate they might have my support.

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