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  1. #476
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    4 more years !!!

  2. #477
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Analysis

    Donald Trump could be in re-election trouble, the polls say. Here's why you shouldn't believe them

    2020 US Presidential Race-11209314-3x2-700x467-jpg

    Forgive my deeply felt eye roll over Washington's current infection of Poll Fever.

    Really?


    We're 16 months out from the 2020 election folks, and after the polling debacle that was 2016, will we ever learn?

    Apparently not.


    Amid new polls showing that Donald Trump may be in re-election trouble, there's already been a surge in Poll Fever.

    Symptoms include media chyrons flickering with minute developments, campaign staffers spinning desperate narratives, grown men in suits exchanging insults.

    The horse race narrative of Biden v Trump, Bernie v Trump, Warren v Trump, Biden v Warren v Bernie v Harris v everyone-else-on-the-endless-blue-ticket is already emerging.


    Remember the 2016 Presidential election, when a majority of the polls predicted Hillary Clinton achieving a sweeping victory?

    Here
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails 2020 US Presidential Race-11209314-3x2-700x467-jpg  
    Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago ...


  3. #478
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AntRobertson View Post
    Makes perfect sense.
    Does if you live in Slippery Rock, Arkansas.

  4. #479
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    Remember the 2016 Presidential election, when a majority of the polls predicted Hillary Clinton achieving a sweeping victory?
    Hillary and the DNC better remember or history will repeat. Had the polls been closer the US would have had a female prez. She eased off the throttle on last lap of the race while 45 had the pedal to the metal. Like it or not winning the popular vote is just a nice feel good talking point for the person comes in 2nd on electoral vote count.

    Hillary had name recognition and as polls tend to do she was favored even though the DNC and primary voters nominated the worst possible candidate.
    Last edited by Norton; 15-06-2019 at 04:27 AM.
    "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect,"

  5. #480
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton
    Like it or not winning the popular vote is just a nice feel good talking point for the person comes in 2nd on electoral vote count.
    To people from actual functioning democracies it's also beyond bizarre that you can get more votes and still lose because of some archaic system of stuffing around with the results.

  6. #481
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    Humbert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton View Post
    Hillary and the DNC better remember or history will repeat. Had the polls been closer the US would have had a female prez. She eased off the throttle on last lap of the race while 45 had the pedal to the metal
    Comey holding a press conference to re-open the investigation into her e-mails twelve days before the election didn't help either.

  7. #482
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    Quote Originally Posted by Humbert View Post
    Comey holding a press conference to re-open the investigation into her e-mails twelve days before the election didn't help either.
    indeed, it was outrageous !!!

  8. #483
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Humbert View Post
    Comey holding a press conference to re-open the investigation into her e-mails twelve days before the election didn't help either
    Yes. That alone could have just been enough to sway the few votes needed to win in a few electoral districts.

  9. #484
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Funny how the Trumptards conveniently forget about that when they're trying to portray him as a victim of a 'Deep State' and/or FBI conspiracy.

  10. #485
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AntRobertson View Post
    To people from actual functioning democracies it's also beyond bizarre
    Many types of "functioning democrary" government types. In your case a constitutional monarch. The PM nominated by the majority party in legislature.

    US Presidency is elected separate from legislature. Arguments pro and con for electoral college.

    If Prez was elected by popular vote only, high population state voters would essentially determine the presidency leaving low population states very little influence.

    The system is imperfect but so far only 5 presidents have lost the popular vote. Trump and George H. W. Bush the most recent. Pro electoral college folks use this as reason for keeping it. Works fine most of the time.

  11. #486
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    agree, was against the collegial vote, but now I see it's usefulness

    it's not a bad argument,

    as usual, a question of balance and choice

  12. #487
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    I think France has a variation which I understand is controversial as well.

  13. #488
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    not for the President, but Parliament

    yes, for 30 years, each new president make the promise he will change the system for more proportional vote

    not going to happen, because if they do, LePen will get 1/3 of those seats !!!

    it also give a strong majority for the new elected President since the election of Parliament is 1 month apart from the Presidential election

  14. #489
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    MMP despite the inherent issues it has is by far the more democratic and representative system.

    Makes me laugh with the US exporting Freedom & Democracy at gunpoint everywhere when their own system is based on archaic doctrine, boils down to a choice between only two parties, and barely a majority of the eligible population even vote and the majority doesn't always matter.

  15. #490
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AntRobertson View Post
    Makes me laugh with the US exporting Freedom & Democracy at gunpoint everywhere when their own system is based on archaic doctrine
    Well yuk it up good citizen of the remnants of the British empire. An Empire built on the same behavior you decry and governed by a document written in 1215.

  16. #491
    Thailand Expat AntRobertson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norton
    citizen of the remnants of the British empire. An Empire built on the same behavior you decry and governed by a document written in 1215.
    Yes but no... I'm of precisely zero English heritage and the relevance of Magna Carta to the governance of modern day New Zealand is similarly precisely zero.

  17. #492
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AntRobertson View Post
    I'm of precisely zero English heritage
    ...really?...Polish then...

  18. #493
    Days Work Done! Norton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...really?...Polish then...
    Papa, he thinks you are Polish.

    https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/p...mage/589094128

  19. #494
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    Quote Originally Posted by Humbert View Post
    Comey holding a press conference to re-open the investigation into her e-mails twelve days before the election didn't help either.

    As the never ending searching for a crime to charge Trump with in an impeachment hearing won’t help Trump much,other than to rally his supporters.

  20. #495
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    Quote Originally Posted by harrybarracuda View Post
    How do you take it into consideration in a straight national poll, you stupid old fool.

    Maybe be look at how heavy New York and California were canvassed.

  21. #496
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    Quote Originally Posted by RPETER65 View Post
    As the never ending searching for a crime to charge Trump with in an impeachment hearing won’t help Trump much
    They already have several felony crimes to charge your orange god with however the justice department will not indict a sitting president. He will be charged the day he leaves office.

    Quote Originally Posted by RPETER65 View Post
    Maybe be look at how heavy New York and California were canvassed.
    Are you really that stupid to think that the pollsters just polled those two states heavy? It was all 50 states including the most contested electoral states you simpleton.

  22. #497
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    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    BTW ... Warren is also 0% chance of the Oval Office ... even the Democrats don't want her.
    uh-oh, newbie dave....


    Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg surge in South Carolina poll

    Former Vice President Joe Biden's commanding lead has taken a hit in South Carolina, dropping from 46% to 37% as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (17%) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (11%) surged to the No. 2 and No. 3. spots, according to the latest Post and Courier-Change research poll of 2,312 South Carolina voters.


    Why it matters: South Carolina is a key early primary state in which black voters play an especially important role. The state will host its Democratic convention on June 21, an event expected to be attended by almost every candidate.


    By the numbers:


    Joe Biden: 37%
    Elizabeth Warren: 17%
    Pete Buttigieg: 11%
    Kamala Harris: 9%
    Bernie Sanders: 9%
    Cory Booker: 5%
    Beto O’Rourke: 4%
    Andrew Yang: 3%
    All other candidates poll at 1% or less
    https://www.axios.com/warren-buttigi...3ba012c82.html

  23. #498
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    ^ Agreed Ray ... Bernie Sanders is slipping in the Democratic Race.

    ---

    I'd still like someone like Kamala Harris to win the Democratic nod.

    Biden would my 2nd choice and, if he can shake his past gaffs he's short-priced to get the nod.

    You can always tell from Trump's attack Tweets who he considers his major opponent.

  24. #499
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    Trump 2020 is going to win, high hand

  25. #500
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