Thread: Eurasia Topics

One question and answer from yesterdays conference.

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying's Regular Press Conference on January 7, 2021

2021/01/07

"Question

AFP:

A woman was shot dead during the storming of the U.S. Capitol and three others died after suffering medical emergencies. Does the Chinese foreign ministry have any comments on the violence that has taken place?

Separately, what are the ministry's comments on some people in the country comparing Washington's riots with the unrest in Hong Kong? Some have described it as "a beautiful sight".

Answer

Hua Chunying:

We have noted what's now unfolding in the United State. We believe that people in the United States certainly hope for an early return of normal order.
You mentioned that four people were reportedly killed in this incident, and you also described some reactions from the Chinese netizens. I would also like to share some of my thoughts with you.

First, the Chinese people have the right and freedom to make their opinions and comments online. I believe that for many people, seeing those scenes in the United States has brought back a sense of deja vu, though they brought out some quite different reactions from certain people in the United States, including from some media.

You mentioned the unrest in Hong Kong. In July 2019, radical and violent protesters in Hong Kong broke into the Legislative Council, ransacking the main chamber, smashing facilities, tossing toxic liquid and powder at police officers, and even biting off one police officer's finger and stabbing another. But the Hong Kong police showed maximum restraint and professionalism and no protester ended in death. However, as you mentioned, there are already four deaths in Washington of which the situation is less violent and destructive than that in Hong Kong.

If you still remember how some U.S. officials, lawmakers and media described what's happened in Hong Kong, you can compare that with the words they've used to describe the scenes in Capitol Hill. I made a note of some words they used. They all condemned it as "a violent incident" and the people involved as "rioters", "extremists" and "thugs" who brought "disgrace".

Now compare that with what the Hong Kong violent protesters were called, like "a beautiful sight" you brought up and "democratic heroes". They said that "American people stand with them".

What's the reason for such a stark difference in the choice of words? Everyone needs to seriously think about it and do some soul-searching on the reason.

We believe that the American people still cherish peace and safety, especially when they are still struggling with a difficult pandemic situation. We hope that they will have their peace, stability and safety back as soon as possible.

Besides, I noticed that the spokesperson of the bureau of international exchanges of the China Media Group issued a statement saying that many news outlets, including a Chinese one, were attacked by demonstrators at their usual live positions outside Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.

Our thoughts are with the reporters out there and we call on the U.S. side to take necessary measures to safeguard journalists' safety."

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying's Regular Press Conference on January 7, 2021


Clear, classy, confident counter.

Originally Posted by OhOh

^Only in China?

Nobody disappears elsewhere then?

No, people disappear without fair judicial process in every dictatorship.

You should know this, you support them.

Two governments leaders positive New Year's message to their citizens:

New Year Address to the Nation


December 31, 2020 23:55
The Kremlin, Moscow

New Year Address to the Nation • President of Russia

Full text of Xi Jinping's 2021 New Year address

By Agencies Published: Dec 31, 2020 07:03 PM



Full text of Xi Jinping's 2021 New Year address - Global Times

US may annoy adversaries but means no harm

Posted on January 10, 2021 by M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

Atonement becomes an inevitable process as the decline of a superpower begins accelerating. But imperial powers find it genuinely difficult to learn to become a ‘normal’ country. That dichotomy could cause traumatic events. The sack of Imperial Rome by an army of Visigoths, northern European barbarian tribesmen, led by a general called Alaric, 1610 years ago, was one such event. The Suez crisis of 1956 was another.

America’s atonement is going to be excruciatingly painful and often humiliating unless it begins straightaway. Yet, there are no signs of any recognition in the Beltway that the US’ capacity to impose its will on the world community is rapidly evaporating. Just glance through the US state department website. The activities of secretary of state Mike Pompeo in the past few days truly remind us of Nero fiddling while Rome burned:

• Sanctioning Cuba’s commercial bank Banco Financiero International S.A. as its profits “disproportionately benefit the Cuban military rather than independent Cuban entrepreneurs” (January 1, 2021);
• Penning an op-Ed on China’s “opaque and threatening nuclear weapons buildup” (January 4);
• Sanctioning 17 companies and one individual in connection with Iran’s metals industry, whose revenues fund that country’s “destabilising activities around the world” (January 5);
• Dictating to Caracas that Juan Guaidó shall remain Venezuela’s legitimate head of state notwithstanding the election of a new National Assembly (January 5);
• Threatening China with more sanctions and “other restrictions” unless the “democracy activists” in Hong Kong are “released immediately and unconditionally” (January 6);
• Condemning Hanoi’s conviction and sentencing of 3 journalists “in a troubling and accelerating trend of arrests and convictions of Vietnamese citizens exercising rights enshrined in Vietnam’s constitution,” and demanding that the journalists be “released immediately and unconditionally” along with “all those unjustly detained” and to let Vietnamese people “express their views freely, without fear of retaliation” (January 7);
• Designating Falih al-Fayyadh, Chairman of Iraqi Popular Mobilization Commission and former National Security Advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister under the US legislation known as Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act (January 8);
• Declaring null and void all limits (standing “contact guidelines”) to US’ interaction with Taiwanese (January 9);
• Condemning the Iranian parliament’s legislation requiring expulsion of International Atomic Energy Agency nuclear inspectors unless all US sanctions are lifted (January 9).

Pompeo is acting in a frenzy in his last days in Foggy Bottom. By dusk today, probably more such missiles are on their way. The pathetic part is that he is blissfully unaware that he is firing away scud missiles, like Saddam in the Gulf War. Indeed, Pompeo casts the US in a false light as a blundering giant out of touch with reality.

Pompeo’s behaviour can only complicate matters for the incoming Biden Administration. Nancy Pelosi should do something about it, alongside the collar she plans to put around Trump’s thick neck. Seriously, is anyone paying heed to the damage Pompeo is still capable of causing to US interests?

The American opinion generally tends to regard him as a political operator and climber and an errand boy of the Koch brothers. This is what the Nation once wrote of Pompeo in a piece titled The Koch Brothers Get Their Very Own Secretary of State:

“Pompeo has long been one of the most conflicted political figures in the conflicted city of Washington, thanks to his ties to the privately held and secretive global business empire that has played a pivotal role in advancing his political career. Pompeo came out of the same Wichita, Kansas, business community where the Koch family’s oil-and-gas conglomerate is headquartered. Indeed, Pompeo built his own company with seed money from Koch Venture Capital.”

Some time ago, Susan Glasser at The New Yorker magazine did a fantastic profile on Pompeo after Trump picked him to replace Rex Tillerson. Glasser traced his amazing journey from being a self-styled progressive who turned into Tea Party activist and finally ended up as a heartland evangelist.

Pompeo’s pattern of deference to his political benefactors has stood him in good stead with a self-absorbed president. Glasser quoted a former American ambassador as telling her, “He’s like a heat-seeking missile for Trump’s ass.” No doubt, Pompeo was among the most sycophantic and obsequious people around Trump.

But then every dog has its day and with a distracted president brooding in the White House, Pompeo seems to think his day has come. He seems to be pushing a personal agenda before a target audience in America. Glasser wrote,

“Pompeo has been more political than any other recent Secretary and with the exception, perhaps, of Hillary Clinton. In some ways, he’s approached the job like a future Presidential candidate, hosting Republican strategists such as Karl Rove and wealthy patrons such as the former Goldman Sachs C.E.O. Lloyd Blankfein at regular “Madison Dinners,” named for the fifth Secretary of State… The dinners are orchestrated by Pompeo’s wife, Susan, who travels frequently with him and whose unusual requests are now being investigated by congressional Democrats after a whistle-blower complained that the couple was inappropriately using government resources and treating Pompeo’s security detail as “UberEats with guns.”

Indeed, Pompeo’s concern for his own political image seems to shape such behaviour projecting himself as a hardcore nationalist who truly believes in the New American Century. But Pompeo is a clever man. He has neatly sidestepped the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s directive to his officials “to develop a more advanced nuclear weapons system with multiple warheads, underwater-launched nuclear missiles, spy satellites and nuclear-powered submarines.”

Pompeo refuses to take note of Kim’s description of the US as DPRK’s “biggest enemy” in his address at the Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in Pyongyang on January 5. Certainly, he wouldn’t be party to highlighting that Trump’s biggest foreign-policy trophy, his bonhomie with Kim, is in reality another sham.

But Pompeo tripped by bad-mouthing the communist leadership in Hanoi. He didn’t realise, perhaps, that by issuing such a vitriolic statement on an influential ASEAN country and emerging regional power, he may have only drawn attention to the collapse of his pet project to persuade Vietnam to join the Quad and the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy. (Pompeo even made a visit to Hanoi in end-October, but, it seems, he got snubbed.)

Pompeo’s press statement of January 9 on Iran Threatening to Expel UN Investigators also becomes a case study. No doubt, Iran has shown strategic defiance. But it underscores, above all, that Tehran threw Pompeo’s famous Twelve Commandments (which he delivered as an ultimatum to the Iranian leadership during a speech at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, DC, in May 2018) straight into the dustbin.

Interestingly, Pompeo is no more in a mood to threaten Iran. Instead, he reminds Tehran that “Iran has a legal treaty obligation to allow IAEA inspector access pursuant to Iran’s NPT-required safeguards agreement. Violating those obligations would thus go beyond Iran’s past actions inconsistent with its JCPOA nuclear commitments.”

Pompeo is urging Tehran to abide by the JCPOA! The wheel has come full circle. He and Trump did everything conceivable to debunk and destroy the JCPOA. Pompeo now wants it to be preserved!


https://indianpunchline.com/us-may-a...means-no-harm/

Market Friday: Russia Wins Oil War With Saudi Arabia

Date: January 8, 2021 Author: Tom Luongo

"If you missed the big story of this week I wouldn’t blame you. It’s a big story, bigger than riots in D.C.
Russia became the de facto controller of the marginal barrel of oil.

This is a bigger story than what happened on Capitol Hill on Wednesday because that was a continuation of a story whose end was already written.

Joe Biden will be President. The Era of Trump is over.

Now that has far-reaching effects on a number of markets, including oil. But, again, we’ve known Biden was taking office, if we’re being honest with ourselves, since election night when the civil war in the U.S. officially began.
So, we’ve known that Trump’s push to become the controller of oil markets was coming to an end. We’ve also known since the Coronapocalypse that U.S. oil production had peaked and could only go down from there.


Attachment 63052

Yes Russia’s production dropped by a similar amount, around 2 million barrels per day, averaging 10.27 millions of barrels per day in 2020. But the difference here is not in how much is produced but in what it costs to produce those barrels.

And not just any barrel, but the marginal barrel… the last barrel.

Because he who has the lowest marginal cost of production ultimately can and will be the price setter for any commodity. Russia has, by far, the lowest cost of production of the major producers when adjusted for currency effects.

The 2020 EIA report on breakeven oil prices — the price needed to balance the country’s current account — for major producers sheds some light on the subject, but everything is normalized to dollars in terms of cost. Under that analysis Russia comes in at around $42 per barrel and Saudi Arabia at around $64 per barrel.


Attachment 63053

But that doesn’t reflect the economic reality of each producer unless they are dependent on dollars to source their expenses. Russia is most definitely not in that position. The oil industry there is homegrown.

Expenses are paid in rubles, parts are manufactured locally, and this is where the big advantage lies. I’ve been banging the drum for three years now that Russia’s currency is its ultimate weapon in the oil price wars.

Because Russia with its homegrown oil industry is far less exposed to a dollar drop in the price of oil to maintain internal production costs. The ruble rises when oil prices fall and the income is buffered by this while expenses stay relatively constant.

On the other hand the Saudi riyal is still pegged to the U.S. dollar and is trapped by it. The same goes for U.S. domestic producers, who have had it even worse now that the debt-fueled mania of the Trump years is over.
Access to cheap capital is over. Rates will rise in the U.S. over the next two years. There was just a major technical breakout on the 10 year Treasury note.





These things combined, along with Russia’s flexible taxing regime on oil profits, give them a sincere advantage over their rivals.

So, what happened this week that was so important? The Saudis unilaterally offered to cut production by 1 million barrels per day. While, at the same time, OPEC+ accepted that both Russia and Kazakhstan would increase their production at their January meeting. It doesn’t matter that it was a paltry 75,000 barrels per day.
What matters is the message.

Saudi Arabia is no longer the price setter through massive market share in oil. Period. They surrendered to the Russians.
Oil markets rallied on the news and Brent Crude is setting up today to close the week on a technical breakout above $50 per barrel.


Attachment 63055

With the Obama restoration completed in the U.S. it also means that the U.S. won’t be running interference for the Saudis through idiotic foreign policy boondoggles like endless sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

Nor will U.S. domestic policy be supportive of the oil and gas industry under an Obama restoration. The opposite will occur. Texas will become a pariah state targeted for retribution for backing Trump and forcing the Supreme Court to openly abdicate its responsibilities under the Constitution.

The era of Iran and Venezuela being complete pariahs is over. Iran’s oil is already returning to the market as China turns to them as a major supplier.

The $400 billion investment deal they signed with Iran implies a massive return on investment through oil sales.
That leaves the Saudis in no position to do anything other than try to desperately keep the price of oil from returning to the $30’s.

Now, once the money printing and conversion of the U.S. to full-blown MMT insanity is complete under the Democrats, nominal oil prices will likely soar in dollar terms.

But that will not be based on a demand-pull scenario but rather a cost-push one of the type we’re already seeing in industrial metals, grains and timber as supply shocks continue to buffet the global economy and the so-called first world is locked in their homes.

Lastly, this capitulation by the Saudis is acknowledgment that 2021 oil demand will not recover from the worst of the 2020 version of the Coronapocalypse.

All of these factors together put Russia in the driver’s seat o be the price-maker in the oil space and everyone else a price-taker.

It’s a subtle transfer of power based on its ability to operate a reasonably independent economy and political system now mostly decoupled from not only the U.S. dollar but also the U.S. dominated global institutions like the IMF, SWIFT and the World Bank.

Because of this expect an Obama 3rd term to be even more belligerent towards Russia than we saw under Trump, if that is at all possible.

The Russians beat the Saudis this week. Now their attention will turn to the U.S."

https://tomluongo.me/2021/01/08/mark...-russian-bear/

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