Thread: 2018 US Midterm Elections

So I was going to wait until next year to start this thread but after Virginia and the crushing defeat that the Republicans took in this recent election. Then with the Roy Moore pedo scandal the reality that the dems could take the Senate as well as the house in 2018 is to real.

Democrat Doug Jones is leading Republican Roy Moore in Alabama's Senate race in the wake of explosive accusations of sexual misconduct against Moore, according to a new poll released Sunday.


Forty-six percent of likely voters polled said they would vote for Jones, while 42 percent said they would vote for Moore, according to the Louisiana-based JMC Analytics and Polling.

Poll: Democrat leads Roy Moore in Alabama Senate race | TheHill

...too far in the future: Dems will undoubtedly mess things up at some point...I predict a Republican Senate and a reduced Republican majority in the House...the Dem leadership gerontocracy is an albatross around the minority's neck...

I don't think the Dems can fuck anything up, they have no real power.

However, the seppos have the attention span of a gnat with ADHD, so it needs a steady reminder of Republican stupidity.

You know, another few mass shootings, another Republican who is against gay marriage to turn out to like fucking little boys, that kind of thing.

Should be a safe bet.

Do you fuckers ever stop?

Politics is on its arse all over the world. Then Trump came along and killed it stone dead.

Originally Posted by Switch

Do you fuckers ever stop?

Politics is on its arse all over the world. Then Trump came along and killed it stone dead.

I assume that's a paraphrased Fox News soundbite, but what the fuck is it supposed to mean?

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

I assume that's a paraphrased Fox News soundbite, but what the fuck is it supposed to mean?

Not Fox Nd not paraphrased.
1. US politics is dead and duller than Fluke.
2. It really has no business on here, a Thai themed forum.
3. They get away with it because, even though Thai politics is highly amusing, no one is allowed to comment on it.

Originally Posted by Switch

US politics is dead

...unfortunate assertion...

Originally Posted by Switch

It really has no business on here, a Thai themed forum.

...a quick review of the threads reveals that everything belongs on this forum...

Originally Posted by Switch

They get away with it

...who is this "they" that you fear?...

Originally Posted by Switch

Thai politics is highly amusing

...only to cynics, the ignorant and white supremacists...

Originally Posted by Switch

no one is allowed to comment on it

...so, common sense to the fore...

Originally Posted by tomcat

...unfortunate assertion...

...a quick review of the threads reveals that everything belongs on this forum...
...who is this "they" that you fear?...
...only to cynics, the ignorant and white supremacists...

...so, common sense to the fore...

You are confused.
why would anyone fear dumb Americans posting on a dumb worthless topic?

THai politics is hilarious. If you can’t see that, you have serious issues. Ignorant white supremacisats, in the US maybe, in Thighland the ignorant xenophobia is all home grown ingrained culture.

confused but almost as amusing as Thai or US politics. Do keep digging.

Originally Posted by Switch

why would anyone fear dumb Americans posting on a dumb worthless topic?

...indeed...no need for gratuitous insults then...

Originally Posted by Switch

THai politics is hilarious

...condescension noted...

Originally Posted by Switch

in Thighland the ignorant xenophobia is all home grown ingrained culture

...irrelevant...

Originally Posted by tomcat

...indeed...no need for gratuitous insults then...
...condescension noted...
...irrelevant...

Not an insult, it’s a fact. The voted for Trump as president. How much dumber can they get?

Still confused about opinions and observations then?

Hardly irrelevant when a draconian military insists on promoting parochial views on world history.

Originally Posted by Switch

why would anyone fear dumb Americans posting on a dumb worthless topic?

Why does a dumb multi nick island monkey like yourself need to come in here and point out what you assume to be obvious?

Originally Posted by bsnub

So I was going to wait until next year to start this thread but after Virginia and the crushing defeat that the Republicans took in this recent election. Then with the Roy Moore pedo scandal the reality that the dems could take the Senate as well as the house in 2018 is to real.

It's possible.

The party out of the Executive historically almost always gains seats in the mid-terms.

Originally Posted by Switch

3. They get away with it because, even though Thai politics is highly amusing, no one is allowed to comment on it.

You don't really know your way around TD, do you?

Originally Posted by bsnub

Why does a dumb multi nick island monkey like yourself need to come in here and point out what you assume to be obvious?

Ask any of your non US friends why it’s obvious. Every days a school day.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

You don't really know your way around TD, do you?

So where are all the clever incisive and witty posts?

Originally Posted by Switch

Ask any of your non US friends why it’s obvious.

Maybe you should reread my post dipshit. I think you missed the gist of it.

Poll(s) of the week

We’ve been telling you to pay attention to the generic congressional ballot for a while now. Well, Tuesday’s results showed why.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll and a separate CNN survey released this week both found Democrats leading Republicans by 11 percentage points on the generic ballot. That’s a big lead — the type of lead that results in wave elections like Tuesday’s. It’s also just a hair larger than the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight average of generic ballot polls.

But the really bad news for Republicans: There’s a good chance they won’t be able to eat too much into that lead by the 2018 midterms.

The generic congressional ballot, even more than a year before a midterm, has historically been quite predictive of what will eventually occur in the following year. It was predictive in April, and it’s even more predictive now. You can see this phenomenon in the chart below. The chart shows the margin by which the presidential party leads on the generic ballot in an average of polls in October¹ a year before the midterm compared with the national House margin in the midterm election. Every midterm cycle since 1938 is included, with the exception of 1942 and 1990, for which we don’t have polling at this point in the cycle.



The generic ballot polls a year from the election and the eventual House results are strongly correlated (+0.90). Importantly, past elections suggest that any big movement on the generic ballot from this point to the midterm tends to go against the president’s party.² That movement explains why the Democrats lost ground in 2010 and 2014 in the generic ballot polls when they controlled the White House, while they maintained their lead in 2006 when Republicans held the White House. (With a similar set of data, I used the generic ballot to forecast Democratic problems early on in the 2010 cycle.)

Indeed, recent election outcomes show that Republicans should be worried about what the generic ballot is showing. The results in Tuesday’s gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey were called perfectly by the generic ballot once we control for the partisan lean of each state. The special election results this year have also been in line with a big Democratic lead on the generic ballot.

Still, we are a year from the midterms. The generic ballot estimate at this point, while good, has not been a perfect predictor of the following year’s House results even after controlling for which party holds the presidency. Given these occasional past errors, it is certainly plausible that Republicans could keep the actual deficit in their national House margin down to just a few percentage points instead of the 8 or 9 points they’re down now. Losing by only a few points nationally would likely be enough for them to hold onto the House.

On the other hand, there’s no reason to think that Republicans will be in any better shape nationally a year from now. The Democratic lead on the generic ballot has about doubled since April, which is as far back as the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot tracker goes.



That’s in line with both historical trends of support for the president’s party declining the closer we get to a midterm and a president whose low job approval rating is wearing on his party.

The bottom line is that although Republicans may see the national environment improve, there’s no reason to think it will. That’s bad news for them heading into 2018.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...year-from-now/

Originally Posted by Switch

So where are all the clever incisive and witty posts?

Well if you're judging by your standards, probably everywhere.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Maybe you should reread my post dipshit. I think you missed the gist of it.

I did. Hence my observation. As you remarked yourself, probably too early anyway. Especially considering the bore fest that will ensue, involving the usual retarded suspects.

You know already who will respond, and the bullshit quotes that will follow.

Why bother. Dumb is so predictable.

Originally Posted by Switch

Dumb is so predictable.

...confession is good for the soul...

Originally Posted by Switch

Why bother. Dumb is so predictable.

It is always nice to know one is at the top of the food chain.

Originally Posted by bsnub

Still, we are a year from the midterms

An eternity in US politics.

Think the Republicans will still hold majority in both houses by a bit less than now.

What will be interesting is to see how many candidates will distance themselves from Trump.

Originally Posted by Norton

What will be interesting is to see how many candidates will distance themselves from Trump.

...depends on what areas they represent: I don't see his folks changing their minds even for tRumpism without tRump...the loss of face would be unbearable...

Norton and TC,

Apt points.

The economy will be a factor also to some degree.

The Potemkin Village gives the appearance that things are going well, with the unemployment rate so low.