1. #21101
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    Brexit Impact Tracker 2 October 2021 – It’s the Wages – Stupid!


    Brexit is a shambles and everyone knows it. Journalists around the world, from New York to Hamburg, know it. People in the UK know it: the latest YouGov polls show that a majority of people now believe Brexit is not going well (53% in September up from 38% in June), while the percentage of people who consider Brexit is going well dropped from 25% in June to 18% now. The government knows it too, as is illustrated by the U-turn regarding its initial refusal to grant HGV drivers exemptions from strict new immigration rules and the fact that the Army has now to be brought in to deliver fuel to petrol stations.

    The strongest evidence that everyone knows that Brexit is not going well, however, is that rather than trumpeting about ‘Brexit dividends’ the right-wing press and Brexiteers now spend the bulk of their time trying to convince the public – and probably themselves – that Brexit has nothing to do with any of the problems we are facing.

    An often mentioned argument is that other countries too have lorry driver shortages. Germany’s SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz’s comments that Brexit caused the UK’s lack of lorry drivers, was met with anger and Brexiteers pointing out that Germany too is 60,000 lorry drivers short. The big difference, of course, is that in Germany that lack does not seem to lead to anywhere near as disastrous consequences as in Britain. No empty shelfs, no lack of fuel at petrol stations there – presumably, because inside the single market, it is easier to deal with such issues. As such, Brexit may not be to blame for the fact that lorry drivers and other low-skilled workers left the UK during the Covid pandemic. It certainly is to blame that they are not coming back.

    There is still some reporting on Brexit victories and dividends of course. Some pro-Brexit media seem to celebrate the involvement of the Army in fuel delivery like a good thing. But reports of Brexit victories are increasingly vague, unconvincing, and irrelevant to the population. Thus, in its desperation the Express turns to comparing the aggregate size of the financial industry in the UK in comparison with Germany, France, and Italy to claim that Brexit is working. The overall size of the financial industry, however, may be of little consolation to people who are facing increasing energy and food prices, increasing national insurance (NI) contributions, and cuts to universal credit.

    In this situation, without reading too much into the results of just one poll at one point in time, it is interesting that the percentage of people who still considering Brexit is going well (18%), is moving closer to the 14% of people who define Englishness as a racial concept, which I wrote about before. This may of course just be a coincidence, but it may also hint at the fact that Brexit increasingly only appeals to a hard-core of unapologetic nationalists in the English population

    Brexit - The man-made foot-and-mouth disease

    Stuck in its self-imposed ideological straitjacket, the government continuous to struggle providing any solutions to the labour and supply chain issues the country is facing. Its only answer is to loosen visa rules for poultry workers and lorry drivers ever so slightly. It is not clear what the government is hoping to achieve with this move, when industry experts clearly reject the measures as too little too late. With the temporary visas, Johnson acknowledges the problem and has blinked, but without any real policy plan. Given his ideological red-lines, all he can provide are fake solutions, which then need to be revised continuously. Thus, the initial temporary visa scheme was meant to be strictly limited until Christmas Eve and came with a warning from Defra that “[t]hese measures are specific, time-limited and one off. This scheme is not a medium or long-term solution for labour supply issues and they will not be replicated in future years.” Only a few days later, the Johnson was force to extend the scheme until March, to then announce on the first day of the Conservative conference in Manchester that the extension will remain under review and further extensions could not be ruled out. The temporary visa scheme is yet another fake solution to very real Brexit-induced problems, and indirectly Johnson seems to know it.

    The impact of labour shortages on the poultry and pig industry are potentially huge. One farmer comparing what might be coming – i.e. a massive cull of pigs who cannot be processed – to the foot-and-mouth disease of 2001. This time, the disease is called Brexit and is entirely self-inflicted.

    In the meantime, Polish and French Turkey producers – not facing any labour shortages or able to deal with them effectively – are gearing up production to increase exports to the UK market ahead of Christmas, replacing domestically produce Turkey with imported one. This is an increasingly familiar shift in trade patterns between post-Brexit Britain and EU countries: Exports from the UK to the EU collapsing – especially in the food and drink industry – but the EU’s exports to the UK holding up or even increasing (They need us more than we need them anyone?).

    Wages not Sovereignty

    The truly remarkable change in recent weeks, however, is a shift in Brexiteer discourse away from sovereignty to wages. The combination of labour shortages, supply chain problems, increasing inflation and the simultaneous tax raises and reduction in universal credit mean that the Brexit impact is now becoming very concrete for people. As a result, it seems like the government’s line of defence has shifted from sovereignty to wages. While a few months ago, any negative impact of Brexit on people was shrugged off by arguing the supposed regain in ‘sovereignty’ was worth it, it would seem that Brexiteers are aware that this argument will not cut it anymore when increasing numbers of households may be facing very concrete economic grievances and tough choices, e.g. between heating and eating.

    In this context, wages have become the new sovereignty. Increasing wages for British workers is the Brexit dividend Brexiteers are now trying to sell to the public as having been part of the plan all along. The new importance of wages for the Brexit narrative is illustrated by two interviews the PM gave this week. In one of them, he was tempted into dismissing cancer death rates and declining life expectancy insisting on the priority of wage increases instead: “I’ve given you the most important metric. Never mind life expectancy. Never mind cancer outcomes. Look at wage growth.” In the other one, he insisted that real wages are going up for the first time in a decade. That claim is misleading as Andrew Marr pointed out to the PM. Indeed, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) cautioned against 2021 pay growth figures, because they are compared to the lower base rate of 2020 due to Covid.

    Regardless, quite ironically, after decades of Tory governments undermining trade unions – the single most important factor keeping working conditions and wages at decent levels – a Tory government now desperately needs wage increases. The hope is that the rationing of labour supply will mean market forces are going to drive wages up without any change to the anti-union, liberal labour market regulation.

    In the process, it is the haulage industry and other companies relying on immigration who are now portrayed as the villains for having relied on immigration. The PM blamed the "mass immigration approach" for having made the haulage sector less attractive by reducing wages and "the quality of the job".

    Incoherence and contradictions

    All the talk about improving the conditions of low-paid workers contrasts – in another sign of the utter incoherence of this government’s strategies – with the fact that with the increase in NI, the end of furlough, and the unprecedented cut to universal credit, living conditions of those on low incomes are about to be made a lot worse.

    Moreover, if the plan was to increase low skilled workers’ working conditions and wages, the nuclear option of exiting the EU, causing massive disruption to trade patterns and supply chains, and ending free movement of people were certainly not necessary conditions to achieve that goal. Like Samuel Earl pointed out in his NYT essay, EU countries like the Netherlands have managed to improve working conditions in the haulage industry simply by legislating in favour of employees. But that, of course, does not fit with a Tory government that is populated with people subscribing to the libertarian ‘Britannia unchained’ ideology.

    Most importantly, however, the reason to be sceptical about Johnson’s plan for better wages and working conditions for low skilled workers is that it is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the link between the nature of skills in different sectors, and the real issues that have been afflicting the UK vocational training system for decades.

    Skilling up the workforce

    In his conference speech in Manchester, Johnson rejected what he called the ‘mass immigration’ model, by stating instead that people " […] want us to be a well-paid, well-skilled, highly productive economy and that's where we're going."

    It is unclear, how, a policy trying to achieve that would address the shortages of lorry drivers – or indeed shortages in any other low-skilled jobs. Johnson seems to confuse two things here: One is providing enough British workers with the skills they need to drive a lorry – or pick fruit and vegetables for that matter – to replace the decline in immigrant work force; the other one is to fundamentally change the nature of the UK economy away from a low wage, low skill, low productivity economy to one that specialises in higher-value added activities. Training people to enter the latter type of jobs may actually make it more difficult to fill current shortages in low-skilled workers in services, farming, gastronomy with domestic workers more difficult. An increase in the skill levels of the domestic workforce, will reduce the domestic supply of low-skilled workers.

    Even if the upgrading of the UK economy is the overarching – and certainly laudable – goal, what the Johnson government has to propose in this respect, goes hardly beyond a slogan (‘skilling up the workforce’) and certainly does not amount to a coherent policy plan.

    The UK has been struggling for a very long time to provide manufacturing companies for instance with workers that have the necessary skills to contribute to high-value added activities. Johnson has promised to finally tackle this problem, after several governments before him have failed to do so. However, his plan for vocational training is mainly based on measures that seek to encourage young people to choose apprenticeships and vocational further education over university education. The way in which Johnson wants to achieve this, however, is by making it harder for certain parts of the population to go to university. Two measures in particular are being discussed: introducing minimum requirements for grades to enter university and reducing the salary threshold at which student loans have to be paid back. Both measures are expected to disproportionately hurt young people living in poorer areas of the country – where educational achievement and salary levels are lower.

    So, the government’s plan for skills is mainly to force people into apprenticeships, rather than making apprenticeships more attractive and fit for purpose by properly funding them and thus allowing providers to develop programmes that lead to skills that employers value. The government does promise some additional spending, but this seems to be mainly geared towards improving dilapidated buildings of further education colleges, rather than allowing providers to improve the content of the courses and thus actually improve the skills that are being taught.

    The policy is also based on a misunderstanding of what is actually wrong with the UK vocational training system.

    A recent academic study by Chiara Benassi of King’s College London and colleagues shows that the British vocational training system suffers from at least three big problems, which hurt small and medium-size companies (SMEs) in particular. Firstly, there is a lack of coordination and trust amongst employers, which creates disincentives to invest in training of employees, as they may be ‘poached’ by others. The lorry driver shortages provides an example of this happening even in low-skilled sectors, with haulage groups accusing supermarkets of poaching drivers. In higher skilled industries, this risk leads to underinvestment in training.

    Secondly, and more importantly according to the study, frequent government reforms have made the training system complex and opaque, so that it is difficult for both trainees and employers to navigate the complexity and understand the quality of different training offerings.


    Thirdly, the vocational training system in the UK is organised as a quasi-market, in which providers competed for funding from the same ‘pot.’ This has led to a proliferation of qualifications and a focus on completion rights, rather than the quality of training and the adequacy of skills provides.


    None of these issues with vocational training in England are being addressed by Johnson’s plan, which simply focusses on forcing young people down that path by preventing them from going to university. It is unclear how such an approach will lead to happier and more productive workers.


    Only the desperate….

    In some sense, though, Johnson’s plan for further education and training is consistent with his other policies. The visa exemptions for lorry drivers and low-skilled workers are granted on a basis that makes taking up these jobs extremely unattractive and hence only likely to be taken up by the most desperate workers. Similarly, the plan for further education is based on the idea that when people are desperate enough or do not have any other option, they will do the job employers need them to do. That’s not a recipe for productivity or happiness. But then, Johnson’s political career was not propelled by happy and content voters, but by the angry and frustrated ones. So, perhaps, there is more strategic thinking in his plans for the economy than I give him credit for.

    Labour and wages

    To be fair with the Tories, they are not the only party struggling to come up with a coherent plan regarding wages and working conditions. In a widely publicised move, Andy McDonald quit his position as shadow secretary of state for employment rights and protections in protest over labour leader Keir Starmer’s alleged opposition to a £15 minimum wage pledge. The motion was accepted in a vote by Labour Party members.


    During the Labour Party conference in Brighton, Starmer also promised a hiring spree at NHS to reduce waiting times for treatment of mental health conditions. Part of the plan is to hire an additional 8,500 NHS staff. It is unclear, of course, how a future Labour government would be achieving that, given that the NHS has been in a staffing crisis since the Brexit vote, which is unlikely to improve without a radical change in immigration policy, which the Labour Party is not currently promising.


    Johnson’s way out – Victories on the Symoblic Battlegrounds

    With Brexit increasingly showing its teeth and the government having switched from claiming that Brexit was not about sovereignty, but about wage growth and up-skilling, there is a risk that if these new, material and measurable promises, to not materialise, we will see a renewed radicalisation of the Johnson government over symbolic issues. Indeed, Brexiteers may soon need victories on the symbolic battlegrounds that will lead to more bad policies that will further damage the country.


    One such symbolic battlegrounds are the conflicts over fishing rights, which may soon be reignited. The fishing industry has provided new estimates that suggest the industry may lose more than £60m in income every year due to reduced access to EU and Norwegian fishing waters, while France is further increasing pressure on the EU to be tough on Britain over the handling of licences for French fishermen. This provides formidable conditions for a high-profile row with the EU.


    Another symbolic battle ground is Northern Ireland, where escalating the row over the Northern Ireland Protocol may very well become the main strategy to distract the UK population from the Brexit-induced economic crisis. As Chris Grey has argued, instrumentalising the NIP in this way would be highly irresponsible, but certainly not surprising from the Johnson government, especially once it has manoeuvred itself into a corner from which there is no escape.


    http://www.gerhardschnyder.com/brexi...e-wages-stupid

  2. #21102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Another symbolic battle ground is Northern Ireland, where escalating the row over the Northern Ireland Protocol may very well become the main strategy to distract the UK population from the Brexit-induced economic crisis. As Chris Grey has argued, instrumentalising the NIP in this way would be highly irresponsible,
    Counting on it

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    Interesting week ahead.



    Trade war looms as UK set to spurn EU offer on Northern Ireland

    EU leaders urged to push back against No 10’s brinkmanship over role of European court of justice

    Fears that the UK is heading for a trade war with the EU have been fuelled by strong indications from the government that it thinks proposals to be unveiled in Brussels on Wednesday over Brexit arrangements do not go far enough.

    The Brexit minister, David Frost, will use a speech in Portugal on Tuesday to say that the EU scrapping its prohibition on British sausages to resolve the dispute over the Northern Ireland protocol does not meet the UK and unionists’ demands.

    Lord Frost will call for “significant” changes to the post-Brexit agreement he negotiated, including over the role of the European court of justice, something the EU is highly unlikely to concede to.

    “Without new arrangements in this area, the protocol will never have the support it needs to survive,” he will warn on the eve of a significant move by the EU to resolve the row.

    Ireland’s foreign minister, Simon Coveney, reacted with incredulity at the UK’s “red line” and its timing just days before what he said was a “serious” offer from the EU.

    He tweeted: “EU working seriously to resolve practical issues with implementation of Protocol – so UKG creates a new “red line” barrier to progress, that they know EU can’t move on … are we surprised? Real Q: does UKG actually want an agreed way forward or a further breakdown in relations?”

    Frost immediately responded to Coveney, saying his demands over the ECJ were nothing new.

    “I prefer not to do negotiations by Twitter, but since @simoncoveney has begun the process … the issue of governance & the CJEU [court of justice of the European Union] is not new. We set out our concerns three months ago in our 21 July Command Paper. The problem is that too few people seem to have listened,” he said.

    The EU’s Brexit commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič, will table four papers on Wednesday on the subject of how the Northern Ireland protocol can be improved – which he has described as “very far-reaching”.

    Included will be a proposed “national identity” exemption for British sausages from the EU’s prohibition on prepared meat from a third country, sources said.

    However, Mujtaba Rahman, the managing director of the Eurasia Group consultancy, warned in a note to clients on Saturday that the absence of concessions on the ECJ will give Frost the justification for triggering article 16, the mechanism for putting the Northern Ireland protocol into formal dispute process or putting it into abeyance by disapplying the arrangements altogether.

    “There is a huge amount of cynicism in the EU about what the government’s actual objectives are. Is it to fix substantive issues in Northern Ireland or is it to keep an ideological fight with the EU rolling because it serves certain sections of the Tory party?” said Rahman.

    “The French president and the German chancellor and the European Commission president cannot wake up every single day to a new argument with Boris Johnson. At some point they need to send a stronger, simpler message.

    “Use of a termination clause within the trade and cooperation agreement itself can be triggered unilaterally and would fully suspend the zero tariff/quota trade deal between the two sides.”

    This cross-retaliation mechanism allowing trade penalties for breaches of the withdrawal agreement was agreed by both sides, but others think the EU will not be so keen to go nuclear.

    Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at the University of Cambridge, believes short sharp shocks in the form of tariffs on such British products as Scottish whisky or salmon are more likely.

    She also said that the ECJ is not a significant issue in relation to the trade of goods. Its annual report cites just 24 cases relating to customs union laws currently pending, among more than 1,045 in total.

    Frost also told delegates at the Conservative party conference last week that the rules required the EU to be “proportionate” but said he still hoped to come out of negotiations with a fresh deal.

    Retaliatory measures are unlikely until next year, with the EU expected to respond with infringement and legal proceedings as its first response to any suspension of the Northern Ireland protocol by the UK.

    The protocol, designed to avoid a hard border between the UK and the single market operating in the Republic of Ireland, placed a border in the Irish Sea, enraging unionists who see checks on goods coming into Northern Ireland from Britain as an attack on the integrity of the UK and their British identity.

    The EU is expected to propose eliminating checks on goods destined to remain in Northern Ireland, with checks only on those products that are intended for sale in the republic.

    Both sides have said they expect to go into a period of intense negotiation, which Frost put at three weeks, after the EU’s response to the UK’s demands are published on Wednesday.

    However, one school of thought is that Frost and the home secretary, Priti Patel, are being used to keep the Brexit pot boiling to show how the UK is sticking up against “EU bullies”.

    Others think the fight over Northern Ireland is more fundamental. One former Downing Street official said he had been told that Boris Johnson “was going round telling people he had been misled” over the protocol and was determined it would have to be rewritten.

    Frost will say on Tuesday that “the UK-EU relationship is under strain” but if the two sides can put the protocol “on a durable footing, we have the opportunity to move past the difficulties of the past year”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/09/trade-war-looms-as-uk-set-to-spurn-eu-offer-on-northern-ireland

  4. #21104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    people who consider Brexit is going well dropped from 25% in June to 18% now.
    Amazingly several of them post here . . . 18% . . . abysmal, but reality.





    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Another symbolic battle ground is Northern Ireland, where escalating the row over the Northern Ireland Protocol may very well become the main strategy to distract the UK population from the Brexit-induced economic crisis.
    Quote Originally Posted by malmomike77 View Post
    Counting on it
    You're counting on it being a government strategy to distract from the economic crisis?

    Well, you've changed . . . whatever happened to
    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    They need us more than we need them
    Brexit propaganda bullshit?



    Quote Originally Posted by malmomike77 View Post
    Boris Johnson “was going round telling people he had been misled” over the protocol
    Good Lord, what an embarrassment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    NHS has been in a staffing crisis since the Brexit vote,
    That the author is an academic, is fairly obvious when he makes such blinding errors as this. Nurse training and qualification has been in the doldrums for decades, not just since brexit. You can equally blame the British government, or EU influence for this, but it goes back even further than Blair’s education policies.

    From a purely practical and personal point of view, my 3 sons have all had the benefit of pursuing different options. The eldest just started university aiming for a career in accountancy. The other two both opted for engineering apprenticeships.

    These options were discussed and in the end we chose to support the coherent arguments they each made for their choices. That’s an example of real life literacy, developed in young people who we as parents, have encouraged, and are content to trust.

    Academics always think they know best, but their choices at career level are usually indicated by the socialist influence of their lecturers. And so the cycle of academic interference continues. Fueled by the embittered cherry picking of the author in this case. Not a true picture, painted by an unbiased individual, who actually understands the real world, but a man who has been fed on idealism.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    One farmer comparing what might be coming – i.e. a massive cull of pigs who cannot be processed – to the foot-and-mouth disease of 2001.
    One son of mine manages a restaurant that specialises in slow-cooked pig. They started out roasting one British pig at a time and pork is still their core menu.

    Last week a farmer came in to try to sell them some pigs, he was desperate. The farmer has pigs and the restaurant needs pigs. Of course the farmer has living pigs and the restaurant needs slaughtered pigs and therein lies the problem. There are no Eastern European workers left at the slaughterhouse and you cannot simply slaughter your own pigs for human consumption.

    The very likely result of this labour shortage is that in the near future that farmer will have to slaughter his own pigs and bury them on his farm. That is simply tragic.

    The supermarkets will have to make up any shortfall with imported pork. If there are any drivers to deliver them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    Last week a farmer came in to try to sell them some pigs, he was desperate. The farmer has pigs and the restaurant needs pigs. Of course the farmer has living pigs and the restaurant needs slaughtered pigs and therein lies the problem. There are no Eastern European workers left at the slaughterhouse and you cannot simply slaughter your own pigs for human consumption.

    The very likely result of this labour shortage is that in the near future that farmer will have to slaughter his own pigs and bury them on his farm. That is simply tragic.

    The supermarkets will have to make up any shortfall with imported pork. If there are any drivers to deliver them.
    All planned according to Brexit-lovers . . . it's all the fault of the EU anyway . . . or France or Germany . . . so says Boris


    It does sound so incredibly stupid . . . - no slaughterhouse staff, no slaughtered pigs, no restaurant meals, no jobs, no income . . . Pffffft.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    That the author is an academic, is fairly obvious when he makes such blinding errors as this. Nurse training and qualification has been in the doldrums for decades, not just since brexit. You can equally blame the British government, or EU influence for this, but it goes back even further than Blair’s education policies.

    From a purely practical and personal point of view, my 3 sons have all had the benefit of pursuing different options. The eldest just started university aiming for a career in accountancy. The other two both opted for engineering apprenticeships.

    These options were discussed and in the end we chose to support the coherent arguments they each made for their choices. That’s an example of real life literacy, developed in young people who we as parents, have encouraged, and are content to trust.

    Academics always think they know best, but their choices at career level are usually indicated by the socialist influence of their lecturers. And so the cycle of academic interference continues. Fueled by the embittered cherry picking of the author in this case. Not a true picture, painted by an unbiased individual, who actually understands the real world, but a man who has been fed on idealism.
    Whatever are you blathering on about? The nursing shortage has been made worse by Brexit and there are plenty of articles that have been written about it over the last 2-3 years.

    Surely you can do better than that...tell us all how Brexit has benefitted everyone...

    It will only get worse...

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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    Good Lord, what an embarrassment.
    You need to ease up on your multiquotathon.......it always screams manic moron, but its now entering a new phase of garbled bordering on unhinged.

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    Quote Originally Posted by malmomike77 View Post
    You need to ease up on your multiquotathon.......it always screams manic moron, but its now entering a new phase of garbled bordering on unhinged.
    Oh dear . . . "multiquotathon" . . . that's the best you can come up with as a response to
    Quote Originally Posted by malmomike77 View Post
    Boris Johnson “was going round telling people he had been misled” over the protocol
    With your constant deviation, re-telling of half-truths and lies, disdain for facts and general apologist behaviour
    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    It will only get worse...
    for you and your fellow Brits.



    Quote Originally Posted by malmomike77 View Post
    You need to
    Face and accept reality

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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Whatever are you blathering on about? The nursing shortage has been made worse by Brexit and there are plenty of articles that have been written about it over the last 2-3 years.

    Surely you can do better than that...tell us all how Brexit has benefitted everyone...

    It will only get worse...
    Can’t you read? Nursing shortages go back decades. Even before labour changed the qualification to degree requirements.
    You accuse brexiters for blaming the EU for bullshit, but seem content to do the same for remainers. Double standards should not apply to that kind of hypocracy. The only effect Brexit might have is ensuring that imported staff have the required level of nursing qualifications, and good English language skills. FFS wake up and give your head a wobble.

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    As usual, you are grabbing at loose gravel and unable to argue against the fact that Brexit is seen as a disaster by everyone except a few bloody minded supporters.

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    The English Slime Minister "Bohin Young-Son" reminds me a lot of that little Korean dictator.

    He's just living in his own little world

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    Hope buriramboy is looking forward to his winter of BREXIT discontent.

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    The EU have been delighted with the NI Protocol and have loved holding the UK hostage with it, well maybe their gambit is nearly played out. I think the EU and SloJo should take responsibility and unify Ire like the Americans have always wanted, after all those yank cvunts sponsored terrorism from afar for years - grasp the moment EU and make a Utd Ire

    Lord Frost risks inflaming tensions as he calls on EU to revise Brexit agreement

    The UK government is on course for a diplomatic collision with Brussels as Brexit minister Lord Frost warned it would be a “historic misjudgement” for the bloc not to rewrite key parts of the agreement.

    Accusing the EU of being “disrespectful” to Britain, Lord Frost demanded leaders effectively tear up the Northern Ireland protocol he negotiated alongside Boris Johnson just two years ago and replace it with a new treaty.

    Delivering a speech in Lisbon, he risked inflaming tensions, claiming the bloc was attempting to “encourage UK political forces to reverse the referendum result or least keep us closely aligned with the EU”.

    The minister suggested that the government was prepared to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol – which allows each side to override large parts of the agreement – if fundamental change could not be achieved.

    “The EU and we have got into a low-equilibrium somewhat fractious relationship,” he said. “Fixing the very serious problem we have in the Northern Ireland protocol is a prerequisite for getting to a better place.”

    He added: “For the EU now to say that the protocol – drawn up in extreme haste in a time of great uncertainty – can never be improved upon, when it is so self-evidently causing such significant problems, would be a historic misjudgement.”

    The address came just 24 hours before the EU is set to unveil its own proposals for fixing the Northern Ireland situation, which Brussels said would be “far-reaching”.

    Late on Tuesday, it was reported that the European Commission was willing to remove the majority of post-Brexit checks on coming entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain.

    Louise Haigh, the shadow Northern Ireland minister, said Lord Frost’s speech “sets the stage for another destabilising stand-off, with the agreement businesses and communities need further away than ever. This approach is stoking tension while solving nothing.”

    Lord Frost’s language will also do little to dissuade observers in EU capitals who think Britain is deliberately trying to torpedo the EU relationship, possibly for domestic political advantage. Among those is Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney, who this weekend warned the UK might be looking to engineer “a further breakdown in relations”.

    Former No 10 Europe adviser Raoul Ruparel said that while there was “nothing much new” in the Brexit minister’s speech, “the language on replacing the protocol was stronger than before and may well alarm some in the EU”.

    “It also makes it a bit harder for the EU side to compromise or for a landing zone to be found,” he added.

    Lord Gavin Barwell – former chief-of-staff to Theresa May – said that the government was now using the deal “hailed” by ministers just last year “to further undermine our relationship with some of our closest friends in an increasingly dangerous world”.

    The UK’s Brexit minister told his audience: “Viewed from our perspective, we look at the EU and don’t always see an organisation that seems to want to get back to constructive working together.”

    Citing a row over vaccines, threats to energy supplies, and an EU ban on shellfish, he said: “Overall, we are constantly faced with generalised accusations that we can’t be trusted and that we are not a reasonable international actor.”

    Asked why Britain should be trusted as an international partner when it was tearing up an agreement painstakingly negotiated and implemented just 10 months ago, Lord Frost said with a smile: “We always sign treaties in good faith and intend to implement them.”

    Lord Frost repeated concerns he had previously voiced about the effects of the protocol, which he said was “disruptive”, “causing serious turbulence” and “damaging large and small businesses” by restrictive trade.

    And he said the alleged problems with the agreement he negotiated showed “we were right” – claiming that he had privately expressed concerns about the deal he publicly presented was a success.

    Defending Brexit, he added: “To suggest that there is something wrong in people deciding things for themselves is somewhat disreputable, even disrespectful to the British people and our democracy.”

    Following the speech, Liberal Democrat home affairs and Northern Ireland spokesperson Alistair Carmichael described the government’s approach as “a badly written farce”.

    “The same minister who just months ago was trumpeting the government’s botched Brexit deal now says it’s intolerable and has to be changed,” he said.

    “After all the upheaval British businesses have suffered and all the challenges they face now, they need certainty and support from the government, not more pointless posturing. The solution to disruption and shortages is working together with our friends and neighbours, not picking needless fights.

    “Boris Johnson’s Conservatives have got to stop talking so casually about breaking international law. Every time they do this, it weakens the UK’s standing with our closest neighbours and around the world.”

    Baroness Chapman, the shadow Brexit minister, said the government had failed to “approach the occasion with maturity and in the spirit of cooperation”.

    “Lord Frost has effectively asked to rip up the agreement he negotiated – and the prime minister signed – just two years ago,” she said.

    “For months, Labour has been calling on the government to drop the rhetoric and make the Northern Ireland protocol work for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Irish Sea.”

    Dominique Moisi, a political scientist and senior adviser at the Paris-based Institut Montaigne, said the speech by Lord Frost was “aggressive” and delivered in a way to divide Europe.

    “A very eloquent, intellectually brilliant and rather aggressive text, and the fact that it was delivered in Lisbon in Portugal is a perfect symbol of what the British have tried to do during the Brexit negotiations and failed, ie to divide the Europeans,” he told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme.

    “He is reiterating the British position from Lisbon, the oldest ally, he has repeatedly said so, of Great Britain, and he goes on saying, ‘well, we have people in central Europe, eastern Europe, who think exactly like us on the basic issue of relationship with the United States. So it’s divide and rule again.”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-brussels-relations-lord-frost-b1936994.html

  16. #21116
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    Well, that was positively surreal.

    The NI protocol should be binned because it was…’drawn up in haste’. Haste caused because BoJo’s government spent over two years with no ideas other than ‘having their cake and eating it.

    Now, an agreement BoJo heralded as a triumph and all but waved in the air needs to be changed, as a schoolboy might want to change his answers to an exam after submitting them.

    This prat Frost was insisting a few years ago that leaving the EU would be folly when his job was flogging whisky. Well at least he’s been right about one thing in his life.

    What a shower of dickheads these people are.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    As usual, you are grabbing at loose gravel and unable to argue against the fact that Brexit is seen as a disaster by everyone except a few bloody minded supporters.
    I questioned the motives of the author. That nugget flew over your head, so you refused to engage. Too much questioning of a source that could be less than independent makes you uncomfortable?

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    So, you attacked the messenger instead of the message.

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    It should be clear by now…that’s all he’s got.

  20. #21120
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    Well, that was positively surreal.

    The NI protocol should be binned because it was…’drawn up in haste’. Haste caused because BoJo’s government spent over two years with no ideas other than ‘having their cake and eating it.

    Now, an agreement BoJo heralded as a triumph and all but waved in the air needs to be changed, as a schoolboy might want to change his answers to an exam after submitting them.

    This prat Frost was insisting a few years ago that leaving the EU would be folly when his job was flogging whisky. Well at least he’s been right about one thing in his life.

    What a shower of dickheads these people are.
    Sadly, it’s all there is. In the face of a total lack of coherent diplomacy on both sides, the current government will ploughing on regardless. With no credible opposition, the UK is stuck with whatever we have in charge now. Perhaps the opposition is waiting for an opportunity to exploit and undermine any failures.
    How many such opportunities do they need Cy?

  21. #21121
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    Quote Originally Posted by malmomike77 View Post
    The EU have been delighted with the NI Protocol and have loved holding the UK hostage with it
    It was negotiated and agreed on by both sides - why were/are the British so utterly inept in this and so many other issues regarding Brexit? Why do you even have someone like Boris in charge . . . and even worse, millions following the guy.


    Quote Originally Posted by Switch View Post
    In the face of a total lack of coherent diplomacy on both sides
    Yea, nah . . . One side mainly. Your man Boris and his hangers-on

  22. #21122
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    Cummings tweeting that BoJo’s bozos never had any intention of abiding by the NI protocol.

    The sole aim was to win the election and they were wiling to sign up to any old pile of crap to do so.

    Britain’s stock at an all-time low.

    Its word is worthless.

    The country is in the clutch of self-enriching charlatans.

    This idiot electorate has got what it deserves.

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    Macron’s France-first industrial strategy shows exactly why the EU is doomed to fail.


    The president’s last-minute bid to make France great again highlights the fundamental European dilemma of national vs Continental interests

    JONATHAN SAXTY

    13 October 2021 • 9:18am

    Jonathan Saxty

    In a last-minute bid to make France great again in the run-up to next year’s presidential election – enlivened by the likely candidacy of establishment bête noire, Éric Zemmour – President Emmanuel Macron revealed a fundamental truth about the body he claims to cherish: there might be a Europe, but there is in fact little Union.

    The French President yesterday announced an investment of €30bn to create a ‘France first’ industrial strategy. Like the UK, France has suffered years of industrial decline, stymied as it has also been by labour-market laws. Like Mr Macron’s tough talk on immigration, the announcement was no doubt designed to win over voters as much as anything else.

    The plan – dubbed “France 2030” – will pour money into nuclear energy, electric cars and robotics, among other things, with an emphasis on making France less reliant on imports. The plan came with a strong scent of nationalism, likely to jar with pro-Europeans and possibly running into compatibility problems with EU state-aid rules.

    But why, one may ask, would a good European like Mr Macron emphasise the French-ness of his ambitions rather than the European-ness of his goals, especially as post-Merkel Germany offers a vacuum for France to fill? Mr Macron has long emphasised a stronger geopolitical role for the EU, with France taking the lead. Here was his chance to lead Europe, not merely France.

    The President could have spoken about levelling up the south or east of Europe. He could have talked in terms of Europe leading the world in growth sectors, not merely France. Instead, he chose not to. While local leaders in say the US or Canada may champion their states and provinces, it would be very weird to hear them talking about those regions leading the world except as part of a common national endeavour.

    This of course gets to the fundamental European dilemma. As we saw with the German reluctance to bailout Greece – and the compromises last year to appease frugal northern countries wary of bailing out what many saw as feckless southerners – European politicians often fail to behave as actors in a common endeavour so much as national leaders defending respective constituencies.

    If the EU is ever to function as a cohesive entity, then it is incumbent on politicians on the Continent to think and act as a common body, rather than with each country catering to its domestic needs first and foremost. Bunching together countries with divergent histories, languages and cultures, sharing little more than proximity, was bound to end up like this. It is what has long stood in the way of fiscal union. The north doesn’t trust the south to spend wisely and the west doesn’t trust the east to play by the rules (and the east in turn doesn’t trust the west not to impose what it sees as alien values).

    The EU lacks sufficient shared identity and purpose of the kind which genuine national unions need to function. England may not like subsidising Northern Ireland but it accepts it as the price of union, even while acknowledging that poorer regions should in fact be levelled-up. How odd it would be if local politicians in the UK championed regions and sub-divisions in the beggar-thy-neighbour tones of European politicians.

    This is what sets genuine unions apart from ersatz blocs like the EU. Supply-chain crises aside, geographic proximity – thanks to a mix of modern communications and (in the normal course of events) cheaper shipping – has never mattered less. Instead, cultural proximity is what counts. This is why Hungary and Poland have each other’s back, and why the Nordic states understand each other.

    Mr Macron’s announcement could have put Europe first, not merely France. Even if the President was appeasing the French people, the fact he felt this necessary speaks volumes. Unless and until the EU coheres it will stumble on as a half-baked union. Until, say, a VW or Siemens views itself as European first and German second – much like Ford sees itself as American first and Michiganian a distant second – true union will remain an impossible goal.

    so will the idiot remainers start bitching about little frenchies?

    of course they won't. equally they will not criticise varadka for demanding other nations don't sign agreements with the uk because somebody tweeted something.

    you silly eu trolls always miss the point and go in for whataboutery, with endless irrelevant points when their love-object is subjected to scrutiny. this does indicate a certain mindset, that of the offended cult member.

  24. #21124
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    ^Speaking of thr terminally discredited.

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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    It was negotiated and agreed on by both sides - why were/are the British so utterly inept in this and so many other issues regarding Brexit? Why do you even have someone like Boris in charge . . . and even worse, millions following the guy.


    Yea, nah . . . One side mainly. Your man Boris and his hangers-on
    Brexit/Remain encourages equality of missing diplomacy. It’s an opinion. No one says you have to agree or disagree.
    I think you have made your feelings known on the subject.

    Such repetitive fervor could make your detractors question such opinions. That would never do.

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