Thread: Brexit - It's Still On!

Originally Posted by Forethat

Pardon my french, but the Swedish version isn't working at all. In order to get an accurate view of the distribution, one must take the population density into account. In the UK, the population density is 274 people per km2. In Sweden it's 23. Here is an overview of the spread in a couple of countries with population AND density taken into account:


Screenshot 2020-05-01 at 09.33.00.png - ForumFiles

this is true too, and possibly other factors too, better diet in Sweden than in England, and less obesity etc... but what we know for sure, and we have the cases in refugee camps for that, is that lockdowns don't work to solve the pandemics, it was all done to cover the ass of politicians for their poor public health policies from the last 20 years, so they can be perceived to be doing something instead of nothing as usual

they will get sued eventually, Macron and his PM will be investigated over their handling of affair right before the lockdowns when they were shipping all the masks and equipment to China in solidarity despite strong signals that it was going to hit all of Europe

we have been played by broad incompetence, at every levels

Originally Posted by Troy

German lockdown has been strict and was applied early. In Bavaria companies were forcing employees that went to South Tyrol in Feb to self isolate. Home working was introduced mid march. Lockdown started in earnest 16 march.

Please don't make things up butters...

I am not making things up, this is directly from German representatives who are doing comparisons with France

also some Landers had discretion over implementation of the lockdowns, in particular Bavaria

Germans have been able to move more freely than in France or Italy, period. If you think Germany was strict, you should see what happened elsewhere instead of making ridiculous claims about Germany being strict.

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

I'm not sure of the methodology required in establish this proof but I think the extraordinarily low infection rate and its corresponding death count in Thailand could be attributed to the widespread cognitive impairment manifested by the population.

Any ideas anyone?

definitely,

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

I think London Imperial College did the stats regarding this, and they have been pretty good so far in their estimates

You thought wrong. There is NO accurate statistics available in terms of nationwide infection rates.

Originally Posted by panama hat

Including a very quick response to potential infections and massive testing

and they had better healthcare facility, better prepared compared to their immediate neighbors like France and Italy, more testing etc...

hence why they can afford to open early now, starting this week

that said, they are being cautious because they are afraid it will pick up again soon, which it will anyhow but if they have enough capacity, that's great

we don't have that much capacity and Germany has been taking a lot of French patients in the East for that reasons. Incidentally the East was a hotbed for the virus and interestingly there was a lot of free movement between the 2 regions as they are closely related in economic and social terms.

Originally Posted by Forethat

Sweden is doing a piss poor job controlling the rate and volume of the spread.

Agreed

well, Sweden is smart, they know they can't stop the virus, nobody can

so they let it pass through, no other choices, and this is what it will be for us

now the question is why waste 2 months in lockdowns when it just delays the inevitable, we just made things worse IMO, we brought economic disaster on the top of things

that really should stop the virus now

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

this is true too, and possibly other factors too, better diet in Sweden than in England, and less obesity etc... but what we know for sure, and we have the cases in refugee camps for that, is that lockdowns don't work to solve the pandemics, it was all done to cover the ass of politicians for their poor public health policies from the last 20 years, so they can be perceived to be doing something instead of nothing as usual

they will get sued eventually, Macron and his PM will be investigated over their handling of affair right before the lockdowns when they were shipping all the masks and equipment to China in solidarity despite strong signals that it was going to hit all of Europe

we have been played by broad incompetence, at every levels

You're wrong again. No one knows for sure that lockdowns don't work. In fact, all available statistics show that lockdowns DO work. It's undisputable.

government officials just can't accept what's going on, and are using desperate measures, and as usual as humans, they make things worse

sure they didn't want to have 100,000 deaths in 3 months, but it will still be 100,000 deaths over 12 months,

so really what was achieved at the end? nothing,

estimates for France is 100K to 300K for 60% herd immunity

should be about the same for Italy and the UK,

so we are only on 10% of the target, and yes it's violent, but we are fucked already, nature won 3 months ago, we are just catching up to the news

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

in the East

. . . you mean the west

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

they are closely related in economic and social terms.

Closely related? The Treaty of Frankfurt made it perfectly easy to decide. Elsaß-Lothringen or France, you have to look at Brennan and Lomasky for reasoning one way or the other.
(A region close to my heart)

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Butters, the krauts were a well oiled bureaucracy that threw their weight immediately behind testing and tracking but the incontrovertible fact remains that out of an infection rate of 170,000, similar to the UK, only 6,000 patients have died whereas in the shitty UK the charnel houses that pass for British hospitals have claimed 26,000 deaths.

granted, but that's true for most of Europe, being better prepared did have an impact, but not the lockdown. The kneejerk reaction is the lockdown, and it's failing as we see now. It will keep rising and rising like it did with Italy and France.

It's possible that your ICU capacity is lower than France or Italy, and therefore patients have been refused assistance and just die

this is the case already here, everyone over 60s with COVID will not be under respirator, they will let them die in their hospital beds

Germany is on the East part of France, not West

the region is closely related to Germany, and everyone speak Germans there

Originally Posted by Dragonfly

well, Sweden is smart, they know they can't stop the virus, nobody can

so they let it pass through, no other choices, and this is what it will be for us

now the question is why waste 2 months in lockdowns when it just delays the inevitable, we just made things worse IMO, we brought economic disaster on the top of things

that really should stop the virus now

Once again, you're completely wrong. South Korea, Germany and New Zeeland are just a few examples of countries where they've been able to stop the virus and/or CFR. They did this by extreme lockdowns in combination with extreme testing measures to identify infections as well as saturation. They then used this to initiate treatment early rather than wait until the patient was in need of ICU.

You don't know fuck all, do you?

Butters, you're overlooking a salient fact here. Herd immunity was only ever considered in the context of a vaccination programme and the 60% figure was the aiming point in those to be immunised to defeat the spread of an infection. It was never meant as a model in which a reservoir of infections was allowed to develop willy-nilly in some attempt to protect the species through natural selection.

No-one knows what defence an infection will confer through the development of antibodies or its duration.

This fucker could keep coming back irrespective of the "herd immunity".

In the meantime we should concentrate on treatment.

Anyway, this is the Brexit thread so posts should contain some reference to English fuckwittery.

Originally Posted by Forethat

Pardon my french, but the Swedish version isn't working at all. In order to get an accurate view of the distribution, one must take the population density into account. In the UK, the population density is 274 people per km2. In Sweden it's 23. Here is an overview of the spread in a couple of countries with population AND density taken into account:


Screenshot 2020-05-01 at 09.33.00.png - ForumFiles

The Swedish method is sustainable. Comparing stats at this stage is apples and oranges. Population density at country level is too coarse. Refine it to be at the cluster level of you want a more accurate assessment.

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Anyway, this is the Brexit thread so posts should contain some reference to English fuckwittery.

Originally Posted by panama hat

Brexit

Edited for context and SA

Originally Posted by Forethat

Once again, you're completely wrong. South Korea, Germany and New Zeeland are just a few examples of countries where they've been able to stop the virus and/or CFR. They did this by extreme lockdowns in combination with extreme testing measures to identify infections as well as saturation. They then used this to initiate treatment early rather than wait until the patient was in need of ICU.

You don't know fuck all, do you?

god, another know-it-all idiot joined TD

SK, Germany and NZ didn't stop the virus, wtf, are you listening to the news, numbers of infected are still increasing. The consensus with experts is that it's still here and will continue spreading, period.

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Butters, you're overlooking a salient fact here. Herd immunity was only ever considered in the context of a vaccination programme and the 60% figure was the aiming point in those to be immunised to defeat the spread of an infection. It was never meant as a model in which a reservoir of infections was allowed to develop willy-nilly in some attempt to protect the species through natural selection.

No-one knows what defence an infection will confer through the development of antibodies or its duration.

This fucker could keep coming back irrespective of the "herd immunity".

In the meantime we should concentrate on treatment.

the herd immunity is real, can it be achieved, that's another question. There is no consensus on that yet. Like flu, there is no effective vaccine, and heard immunity is not there, yet it will stop spreading naturally. One explanation could be seasonality.

The thing is infectious disease specialists from the around the world are telling us we still know very little about the flu virus, and even less about COVID

COVID-2003 was over 10 years and we still don't have a vaccine, and it stop spreading "naturally", so this is still a work in progress

Originally Posted by Forethat

You're wrong again.

Originally Posted by Forethat

You thought wrong

Originally Posted by Forethat

Once again, you're completely wrong.

It's something of a speciality.

If you must read what he posts then just assume the opposite is correct.

It works rather well.

Originally Posted by Forethat

South Korea, Germany and New Zeeland are just a few examples of countries where they've been able to stop the virus and/or CFR. They did this by extreme lockdowns in combination?

SK, NZ and Germany were better prepared, period. Nothing to do with the lockdowns. Actually Germany had a less strict lockdown compared to France and Italy, same with SK, less strict than Europe. So that shot downs your silly arguments about lockdowns right there.

However, those countries were better equipped for early identification and taking care of patients, hence putting strategies to "isolate" the small clusters, not everyone like we are doing here in Europe.

Europe, and the UK have revealed their weaknesses in this disaster, we fucked ourselves, period. We are responsible for lack of preparation and years of neglect.

Originally Posted by cyrille

It's something of a speciality.

and I was wondering when our little Cy was going to summon us with his pointless remarks in this thread

sniffing every turds like a little poodle