Thread: Brexit - It's Still On!

If your sterling denominated UK civil service pension is about to undermine your ability to meet the Thai visa requirements, you deserve pity. I never had a problem meeting the requirements, and can easily meet the criteria here, so I do feel sorry for you.
Not just a harpie, but a skint one too. How sad is that?

Bojo's cabinet of clowns from a Steven King novel is starting to seem relatively competent.

How fkin s-c-a-r-y is that?

The IMF is now asking WTF.

That just never happens with the major economies.

And in such circumstances twitch (supposedly not conservative ) gets personal and goes for ad hom every time.

Originally Posted by cyrille

And in such circumstances twitch (supposedly not conservative ) gets personal and goes for ad hom every time.

If you are not a liar, you should be able to prove that your insinuations are correct.

As you and I both know, your are a liar, so at least that point is satisfactorily proven beyond doubt.

Chas, you fucking idiot, I qualified when £ was around 37 baht as you may have worked out in your addled-brained senility and will continue to do so….unlike you who fled Samui for your Bali slumshare.

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Chas, you fucking idiot, I qualified when £ was around 37 baht as you may have worked out in your addled-brained senility and will continue to do so….unlike you who fled Samui for your Bali slumshare.

Your personal financial circumstances are of absolutely no interest to me.

I was never obliged to leave Thailand, other than a dislike for the less than imaginative Thai regulations not conforming to my wishes. I see no point in giving in to financial bullying by the Thai IO discretionary powers.

Indonesia enjoys a similar variety of climate, regulated immigration requiring no additional financial inputs from me and a far more genuine civil population than Thailand.

I enjoy my 2 bedroom, coastal villa ‘slum’ just fine thank you. Paying my rent annually in advance has advantages and very few drawbacks thank you.

^ that's better, your bellyaching tripe is in the right thread.

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

breathtakingly arrogant dickhead of a chancellor

On the button there.

Originally Posted by Shutree

On the button there.

Could be any one of the last few, though.

The difference is that kamikwasi literally hasn't got a clue what he's doing.

Originally Posted by Switch

If you are not a liar, you should be able to prove that your insinuations are correct.

As you and I both know, your are a liar, so at least that point is satisfactorily proven beyond doubt.

I do find the lack of a response quite amusing.

Does that mean that you agree with my accusation the you are a liar? perhaps you believe the accusation will go away, or people will forget? I will not forget that you posted a lie about me, and continue topmost as though nothing happened. It can't possibly be that you did not lie, but you assume that its ok to lie and not answer for it.

If you have no moral standards, is it ok for you to ignore a blatant and unprovable lie?

^ Irrelevant drivel isn't worthy of a response is the more likely reason...

Meanwhile, is Truss the Liberal sabotaging the Tory party?

I thought the Boris government was rock bottom but the Tories have managed to sink lower.

Not that the UK could ever recover once they took the Brexit path as explained by those nasty experts back in 2016.

Originally Posted by Troy

Meanwhile, is Truss the Liberal sabotaging the Tory party?

yes

Originally Posted by Troy

Not that the UK could ever recover once they took the Brexit path as explained by those nasty experts back in 2016.

now you are just being a defeatist cvnt, the problem with the timid UK under the EU all those decades.

I thought the Boris government was rock bottom but the Tories have managed to sink lower.

Not that the UK could ever recover once they took the Brexit path as explained by those nasty experts back in 2016.

it is quite revealing how teak doors "critics" have revelled in what they see as the discomfiture of not just the new gov. but also of the UK economy generally – as if the economys misfortunes give them joy in proving them right.

this gloating has not been a pretty sight and smacks of mean spirited self interest. better that s.a. concentrates on his ira friends and their attempts at dismantling any attempts of stability and troy on an uncompetitive and regulation heavy eu as it slowly spirals into a putin propelled irrelevance.

meanwhile, and at long last the uk the age of cheap money is finally coming to an end, as it should. zero interest rates punishing savers and rewarding the debtor and the profligate, an interest rate of 4% would be beneficial to all. truss and her african may just have got it right.

pound/baht back to 42 now and rising!

kneeler and the gobshite for no10? in your dreams.





Trussonomics is already slaying the demons of stagflation. We need more of it.

Contrary to received opinion, the outlook is positive: stable inflation, moderate interest rates and much higher growth

PATRICK MINFORD
30 September 2022 • 6:22pm

Volatility has stalked the UK markets this past week since the mini-Budget, much to the delight of the many opponents of the Truss-Kwarteng revolution.


However, out of this volatility has come a useful rejuvenation of monetary policy, which previously failed to deliver the necessary potency to kill off inflation. Before last week it looked as if the Bank was a reluctant raiser of interest rates, partly due to too gloomy a view of growth – now revised up to 0.2 per cent in the second quarter – not quite the recession Andrew Bailey had talked up.

The Bank only raised interest rates by 0.5 per cent at its past meeting, instead of the 0.75 per cent generally felt to be necessary, and in line with actions by other central banks, notably the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). As these two raced ahead, interest differentials against sterling rose and money flowed out of the UK accordingly, pushing the pound down. With the pound falling, the bond markets anticipated that the Bank would have to raise rates a lot and so long bond rates spiked in line with these expectations.

Now the Bank has rightly fought back. Clearly, it has an interest in the pound not falling too much because of its effect in raising inflation. In the past week it has signalled two key things via its statements and purchases of gilts to prevent financial instability. First, that it will probably raise rates in a considered way at its next meeting. Secondly, that the markets are expecting future interest rates that are far too high.

I think this will mark the end of the sterling “crisis”. The pound has to be allowed to float to whatever value will get our balance of payments right over the long term. Whether this is up or down from now depends on two opposing forces: the extent to which Liz Truss’s new supply-side policies boost productivity – and so UK competitiveness – versus the extent of the boost needed to correct the current imbalance. This can only be determined by the market and evolving events. We have learnt the hard way from the ERM episode on Black Wednesday that we do not want to fix the rate at some artificial target.

Amid this instability, therefore, we have acquired a newly toughened but not stupidly tough monetary policy. It would have been idiotic to go for, say, 5 per cent interest rates. But we can now see clearly from this week’s mortgage market reaction to this prospect that it would massively overtighten monetary policy, crucifying the housing market and business lending.

In fact, monetary policy has already tightened quite enough on the prospect of rates rising to a peak of around 3 per cent. Money supply growth, a good indicator of tightness, has fallen to just over zero. If the Bank raises rates steadily to 3 per cent, as it has been quietly planning, this will do the job of seeing off inflation.

This partly reflects what has been going on in the rest of the world, where volatility has also taken a toll. The sharp rise in US and ECB interest rates, followed widely around the world, is tightening money everywhere, and together with the effects in China of zero Covid and real estate collapse, is causing a sharp world slowdown, probably turning into outright recession. So commodity prices, whose spiking has forced up inflation rates this year, will reverse in the next year, pulling down inflation to around the 5 per cent mark here and elsewhere.

A further contribution to falling inflation here will be made by Ms Truss’s promised supply-side policies, aimed at boosting economic growth. These, by raising supply and lowering wage demands, will reduce inflation. So much for the “inflationary effect” of the mini-Budget.

So what then of the prospects for UK economic growth? That mini-Budget, so reviled by the economic consensus and its outriders, looks to have saved the day. Recession will be seen off by the modest injection of demand, turning the Government policy of recent times around from a seriously contractionary stance.

The critics assert there is “no evidence” that lower marginal tax rates and reduced regulation in the labour market and elsewhere boost growth. Yet then they are plainly ignorant of the UK data, which is well matched by just such a model of growth. The match comes about because these policies were tried here before by Mrs Thatcher’s governments. It is no accident that the decade of strongest growth we have seen in the UK since 1970 is that of the 1980s when it reached nearly 3 per cent.

A lot of ink has been spilt attacking the abolition of the 45p top rate of income tax. The reasoning has been that in these hard times it is wrong to cut tax on the rich. The International Monetary Fund specifically singled out that for its attack, an extraordinary intrusion on a non-economic point.

However, the essential point grasped by Mrs Thatcher in the 1988 budget of Nigel Lawson – which brought the top rate down to 40p – is that these higher rates just destroy entrepreneurial innovation and investment, so reduce the growth rate to everyone’s loss and furthermore reduce tax revenue because there is less activity to tax. It even reduces the income tax paid by higher earners because they do less.

The abolition of this 45p rate still leaves a high top rate of 40p, well above the US rate of close to 30 per cent, where a lot of our investors come from. They could go elsewhere instead of doing business here. In future reforms I would like to see this 40p top rate come down, too.

Another criticism has been that the Government’s plans risk debt insolvency. This is wrong on two counts. First, the Chancellor made it crystal clear that he would impose a long-term rule on the debt/GDP ratio: that it should be trending downwards. This long-term approach to debt is the correct one, as it does not interfere with optimal tax setting or the necessary government response to the economy’s fluctuations. Second, much written about the debt prospects ignored the huge cut in the debt value due to the inflation of some 15 per cent we will have had by the end of 2023. This alone cuts the debt/GDP ratio by about 12 per cent and more than compensates for the worst case scenario cost of extra borrowing.

Maybe Ms Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng could have banged the drum harder on these points. A thorough analysis by the OBR would be a useful thing to be brought in soon and, in retrospect, should have accompanied the mini-Budget. But time was short, given the urgency of addressing all the issues facing the British economy.

With big policy changes, mistakes are certain to happen. The Thatcher Medium Term Financial Strategy was dogged by errors and nothing went to plan, with the mob of 364 economists and their allies in high places denouncing it relentlessly. But the policy fundamentals on inflation were right, as they are today on growth. Mrs Thatcher won through by sheer determination. Ms Truss must, like her, be the “Lady not for turning”. She could also learn from Mrs Thatcher’s ability to spell out the fundamentals in plain terms, until events turn in her favour, as they will fairly soon.

It will certainly help growth here if the rest of the world grows too. I expect to see monetary policy ease in the US and the eurozone as inflation comes down. Undoubtedly, the central bank panic caused by soaring inflation this year has pushed interest rate expectations much too high. It is probably overkill. So we will likely see those interest rates peaking and tumbling in 2023, which will help to get world growth going again. China’s problems look more intractable, so it will take longer to see recovery there.

In summary, with this mini-Budget the Truss/Kwarteng team have made a good start, setting out a new growth-maximising approach to policy, which thereby maximises the welfare and living standards of UK citizens – unquestionably, the central aim of policy. We know that growth can only come via a policy environment that encourages it by allowing entrepreneurial investors to make money from their innovation and investment. With that fuse lit, the Government can then support growth further with better infrastructure, education and skills spending, as well as a whole raft of other supply-side reforms, as already promised by Truss. But the sine qua non is the revival of that entrepreneurial dynamism that we have lost in recent decades.

Britain’s outlook is promising. Inflation down, interest rates peaking at moderate rates that still reward savings, and growth picking up. There is much more to do: trade with the non-EU world must be freed, our EU regulations must be reformed to give us the best international standards instead, and there is an agenda for tax lowering and simplification to be rolled out. But it has been a good start.

People say that Ms Truss has very little time to get this agenda done and to show the fruits of it in higher growth. Her MPs are restive and worried about Labour’s poll lead. What’s new here? Mrs Thatcher was also threatened with party mutiny as she brought in her monetarist reforms in her first Parliament. The “men in grey suits” were regularly said to be about to lead her away because her policies, what with high unemployment and tight money, would make her too unpopular for re-election. But in 1983 she swept in again, because she conquered inflation.

Ms Truss faces just the same threats and she too, by delivering recovery from the present acute crisis, through policies that do not court short-term popularity, will be seen to have succeeded and will then be rewarded with election victory.

The British people admire the lonely bravery of the leader who gets results and does not weakly pander to short-term polls.

Economists for Brexit...

Nuff said...

Originally Posted by malmomike77

Troy you and all the remainers, especially remainer expats would love t o see the UK fail.

Wrong!

^ your narrative since before Brexit suggests otherwise.

^ Saying that taking a certain path is a mistake and then showing it up to be a mistake is not wanting failure, it's just expecting the inevitable.

^ nah. you and your expat mates have always wished the UK failure, say what you like but its part of your move abroad.

You can think what you like but it isn't going to help Brexit Britain. There has been no stable government since the Brexit poll and it sure has nothing to do with expats.

Originally Posted by Troy

You can think what you like but it isn't going to help Brexit Britain.

The current Govt is a clusterfuk, but from day one all you and your expat mates have done, for 10 years is crow from the side-lines, you don't pay tax, you left long ago so really you have no investment in the UK aside from crowing from your comfortable foreign refuge.

You forget, I fought for Queen and country, I voted in the Referendum and I have a UK pension. I wanted to return to the UK but cannot get a visa for my wife despite the fact she is entitled to one for free. We even have the funds to qualify without having to show earnings but it just sits in the immigration centre for months on end. Even we need a rubber dinghy to get in...

^ which makes it all the more sad you are in you current of hate

Poor Tax, the entire global economic establishment has universally denigrated the utter stupidity of the so-called Trussonomics announced by her African former fuck pal chancellor but in his sclerotic and unbending obduracy he seeks to champion this stupid doctrine of fiscal illiteracy by quoting an article written by a dribbling old has been entering his terminal dementia, a man who is notable for lacking any connection with the real world he has long since departed.
Like many of his dentist ilk Tax lacks vision and is blinkered by a narrow mindedness born out of a lifetime of staring down into the maw of the common man.

Extolling the likes of Patrick Minford is really the act of a man who evidently would find comfort in sucking Jacob Rees Mogg’s cock.