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  1. #18951
    Thailand Expat lom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NamPikToot View Post
    What argument, you really do expose your idiocy at times, hell most of the time. I am putting forward no argument - i am suggesting we are moving to a WTO arrangement, something your friend here also missed.
    The EU-Australia trade is currently done under the 2008 EU-Australian Partnership Framework, this is not a WTO arrangement.
    This was the first step which later led to the 2018 free trade agreement talks between the parts, and this first step is essential for the free trade negotiations because it levels the playing field. You have heard that expression before, haven't you?
    Then you also know why Britain can never get a deal with EU as long as they are not willing to conform to European standards, standards that both Canada and Australia thought was good for trade.

    A no-deal exit from EU means WTO trade rules and not an Australia deal!!

    Edit:
    link to the 2008 EU-Australian Partnership Framework
    https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/eeas/fi...k2009eu_en.pdf
    Last edited by lom; 22-07-2020 at 08:51 PM.
    May the bridges I burn light my way

    There is no plan for no deal because we're going to get a great deal - Boris Johnson in HoC 11 July 2017

  2. #18952
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    ^^Well in that case you’re just woefully misinformed about what an australia style deal is, as lom points out.

    I made the mistake of thinking you at least understood your own terms of reference!

    I should know better by now!

  3. #18953
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    Quote Originally Posted by lom View Post
    levels the playing field.
    Erm not in the terms the EU wants to impose on the UK it doesn't - the framework does not impose the raft of "Level Playing Field" restrictions the EU is seeking to impose including State Aid, imposition of EU legal primacy and host of other lovely little regs it has chosen to press the UK for that it has not with other "Trade Partners".

    It is a much looser construct.

  4. #18954
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    ^ Syb, i was using it in the same manner it has been jokingly referred to by the Govt, code for WTO - the fact is that you and and the other trained chimps are just to dim to get the joke...as usual. How's the Hols going btw.

    You lot must be a scream at a get together

  5. #18955
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    ^ Englishmen scream? That's for those with Latin blood.

    Stiff upper lip and a sense of calm in a storm is the English way...

  6. #18956
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    Stiff upper lip and a sense of calm in a storm is the English way...
    Absolutely, all along its been hysterical remainers making the high pitched noise. Nearly there now and then we can get on with ... life

  7. #18957
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    Another week goes by, its funny seeing Barny having a rant about ultimatums when the EU's opening negotiating stance consisted of four of then - now they don't like some getting handed back - bless, where's Theresa when you need her.

    Brexit trade deal 'unlikely', Michel Barnier warns Boris Johnson

    'I don't think we've got time for these games', chief negotiator says -poor Barny he's not happy with his hand and lack of flexibility Micron's given him.




    A Brexit trade deal is now looking "unlikely" because of British intransigence on key issues, the EU's chief negotiator has warned.

    Speaking on Thursday after a round of negotiations in London Michel Barnier said told reporters that "the time for answers is quickly running out".

    "By its current refusal to commit to open and fair competition and to a balanced agreement on fisheries, the UK makes a trade agreement, at this point, unlikely. Until the very last day of this negotiation and despite the current difficulties the EU will remain engaged, constructive, and respectful," he said.

    "In any case the UK has chosen to leave the single market and customs union on 1 January next year in little more than 5 months. This will bring inevitable changes. On our side we are getting ready."

    Mr Barnier warned that not signing a deal by October would have serious economic consequences.

    UK concedes that only ‘outlines’ of Brexit trade deal may be possible "If we do not reach an agreement on our future partnership there will be far more friction – for instance on trading goods in addition to new customs formalities there will be tariffs and quotas," he said.

    "This is the truth of Brexit and I will continue to tell the truth. If we want to avoid this additional friction we must come to an agreement in October at the latest so that our new treaty can enter into force on 1 January next year. This means that we only have a few weeks left and that we should not waste time."

    Taking questions from journalists after his statement, the EU's chief negotiator said progress had to be made: "You don't do that with ultimatums or threat, I've never seen negotiations being carried forward in that sort of way. I don't think we've got time for these games."

    Mr Barnier's UK counterpart David Frost issued a statement warning that "considerable gaps remain" in talks and accepting that a deal would not be reached in time for the end of July, when Boris Johnson had said he wanted one to be signed by.

    But he was more up-beat on the prospects of an eventual trade agreement, adding: “Despite all the difficulties, on the basis of the work we have done in July, my assessment is that agreement can still be reached in September, and that we should continue to negotiate with this aim in mind. Accordingly we look forward to welcoming the EU team back to London next week as planned for informal discussions and to the next negotiating Round beginning on 17 August.”

    He added: "Considerable gaps remain in the most difficult areas, that is, the so-called level playing field and on fisheries. We have always been clear that our principles in these areas are not simple negotiating positions but expressions of the reality that we will be a fully independent country at the end of the transition period.

    “That is why we continue to look for a deal with, at its core, a free trade agreement similar to the one the EU already has with Canada – that is, an agreement based on existing precedents. We remain unclear why this is so difficult for the EU, but we will continue to negotiate with this in mind.

    “Looking forward, there are large areas of convergence in many of the areas on which we are negotiating and ample precedents and texts on which we can base our work. We will keep working hard to bridge the gaps and find a way through."

    The next round of formal negotiations is in mid-August, with further discussions expected in London next week.

    The main stickingpoints in talks are on fisheries, where Mr Barnier says the UK "is asking for near-total exclusion from the UK's waters" of EU vessels – and on regulatory alignment.

    "On important areas such as climate, environment, labour, and social law the UK refuses effective means to avoid undercutting by lowering standards," the EU's chief negotiator said.

    "The UK wants to maintain its regulatory autonomy: OK, we respect that. But can the UK use this new regulatory autonomy to distort competition with us? We have to answer this question as we commit to a new economic partnership. We want to trade with the UK free from tariffs, free from quotas, but also free from unfair competition. I am sure that UK businesses want that too. The UK tells us it needs certainty for its businesses, but that cannot be at the price of long-term uncertainty and disadvantages for our business in the EU. We respect the UK government's political choice and we are ready to work on solution. But the EU will not accept to foot the bill for the UK's political choices."

    Mr Frost said the UK had "always been clear that our principles in these areas are not simple negotiating positions but expressions of the reality that we will be a fully independent country at the end of the transition period".

    "We continue to look for a deal with, at its core, a free trade agreement similar to the one the EU already has with Canada – that is, an agreement based on existing precedents. We remain unclear why this is so difficult for the EU, but we will continue to negotiate with this in mind," he added. UK sources say both sides engaged on the level playingfield and that the UK had proposed a robust legal text. On fishing the UK says the EU wedded to the status quo.

    Downing Street said on Wednesday that the UK was now looking for the "outline" of a free trade agreement by the end of the year, hinting that a full agreement may not be possible.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-eu-uk-michel-barnier-boris-johnson-single-market-a9634091.html

  8. #18958
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    Lots of comments in the media about Barny's rant after the latest week of talks during which the UK failed to sign up to the EU red lines. My favourite was John Redwood.


    Sir John Redwood has claimed the EU's negotiator, Michel Barnier has been "rattled".


    During an interview on talkRADIO, he said: "He did sound very rattled, didn't he?


    "I hope the EU calm down. We want to be friendly neighbours after all.


    "We are still happy to buy a lot of products that they've been selling us for some time."

  9. #18959
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    Quite a nice perspective in the Guardian, albeit from a stanch anti EU chap.

    The EU coronavirus fund will take Europe another step towards disintegration

    The recovery package promises deeper integration between European countries. Here’s why I think it won’t work

    During the early years of the eurozone crisis, I remember gauging its depths by the rapidly diminishing half-life of the celebrations that followed every European Union summit. Premature proclamations that the crisis was over inspired hope, which caused the money markets to rebound. But then, at some point, gloom would unfailingly return. As the years of austerity for the many and socialism for the few ground on, that point arrived sooner after each EU summit.

    Could it be that, at long last, this sad pattern has been broken by last week’s summit, which resulted in a brand new, €750bn post-pandemic EU recovery fund?

    Ignoring the predictably triumphant reception by the usual EU cheerleaders, hope that this time the EU may have got it right comes from smart critics of the leaders’ track record, such as my friend Shahin Vallée who described the recovery fund as “a leap towards genuine integration”.

    It is not the size of the fund that gives commentators like Vallée hope. It is, rather, the fact that for the first time EU leaders seem to have acknowledged the indispensability of a common debt as the glue of any monetary union. True enough, the €750bn will be borrowed jointly by member states in proportion to their capacity so as to be spent in proportion to their need. This has been necessary for years but has been resisted doggedly by the richer countries – until now.

    So, why is it that, although I endorse the idea of mutualised debt as a necessary condition for European unity, I believe that the EU’s latest decision is another step in the direction of Europe’s disintegration? For three reasons.

    First, the recovery fund is a distraction from the elephant in the room: massive austerity. According to the International Monetary Fund, the eurozone’s total 2020 income will fall by 10%, causing an average budget deficit of more than 11%, with weaker countries such as Italy and Greece facing a much larger drop.

    That would not be catastrophic per se, if it were not for the determination of Berlin and other governments to push member states to balance their books by 2021 (as witnessed by the 11 June Eurogroup communique). Even if the nascent recovery brings down, for example, Italy’s budget deficit to, say, 9%, to balance its books Rome must impose a cruel level of austerity equal to a new 9% of GDP in cuts and taxes. Similarly with Greece. Given that even Germany will have to practise austerity to balance its budget, the whole continent will be treated to an intensification of the doom loop between austerity and recession.

    Second, the recovery fund is (macroeconomically) puny. For it to defend the union, it should pack a fiscal boost comparable in magnitude to the austerity tsunami down the line. It does not. Take Italy and Greece again, countries that must face down immense austerity. How much of this shock can the recovery fund monies help absorb? Not a lot, is the answer.

    To arrive at a precise answer, we must first ignore the new loans on offer from the recovery fund (since new debt has never helped the insolvent) and concentrate exclusively on net grants. Italy has been allocated around €80bn and Greece €23bn. However, every member state must take on part of the new €750bn EU debt. Italy, for example, is liable for just under 13% of this debt while poorer Greece is liable for 1.4%. Once we subtract these new debts, Italy’s and Greece’s net grants come to just over €30bn and €12bn respectively – or 0.6% and 2% of GDP on an annual basis between 2021 and 2023. Compared to the prospect of austerity equivalent to 9% of GDP, which will be required to balance their budgets, these are puny sums.

    Third, the political conditions under which the funds will flow are a Eurosceptic’s dream. When a recession hits the UK, the government’s budget deficit rises automatically as benefits flow disproportionately towards the most affected regions. The beauty of such a proper fiscal union is that no politician can decide which region gets which transfer. Imagine the sheer awfulness if parliament had to debate how much would be transferred to Cumbria, to Norfolk or to north Wales from Surrey, Sussex and west London. Britain would be wrecked by divisions that make Brexit look like an amicable affair. And yet this divisiveness has been baked into the EU recovery fund, complete with country allocations drawn up even before we know the effects of the recession on each region. It is almost as if the whole thing were designed by a cunning Eurosceptic.

    With its recovery deal, is the EU finally starting to act like a unifying force?

    As if that were not enough, our great and good leaders also decided that each national government will have the right to freeze payments, for up to three months, to any other government while it scrutinises how the money is to be spent. Endless recriminations are guaranteed, as the Dutch lambast the Italian government’s pension payments and Rome returns the favour with reports on the Netherlands’ famous tax loopholes. Imagine the mood in the room when such a challenge is made to, say, Spain, by a prime minister whose government the EU bribed, in the form of Thatcher-like rebates, to get the recovery fund across the line.

    Optimists claim that, despite the clumsiness of the redistribution mechanism and its macroeconomic insignificance, the new common debt is creating facts on the ground; that it constitutes a decisive first step towards a proper federation. This is the familiar argument that Europe is moving in the right direction glacially until, when we least expect it, it leaps. Juxtaposed against this happy narrative is my hunch that we are moving in the opposite direction, toward disintegration.

    Whether I am wrong (as I hope I am) or not will hinge on whether, by next year, a majority of Europeans feel that the recovery fund helped them recover. If they do, maybe the EU’s common debt can prove itself a harbinger of shared prosperity. For my part, however hard I try, I cannot see how this might be possible.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/jul/24/eu-coronavirus-fund-europe-recovery-package

  10. #18960
    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Typical crap from the Grauniad; the virus is being manipulated toward greater integration not less. These few billions of the 'coronavirus fund' pimped as a 'recovery package' will go nowhere near relieving 27 members blighted by the virus to varying degrees, and the controllers tagged it with a misuse of the English language to conceal its true intent as a slush fund.

    The frugal four all objected to debt mutualisation, which Merkel and other leaders from the prosperous north unconditionally promised would never happen, so they get a greater 'rebate' to shut up, the former eastern block get more than before to not protest that the package allows the EU to now borrow unlimited funds on the open market, for which all become liable, which is strictly illegal and in breach of the Treaties signed by all of them; there will be more illegal bailouts, and grants will be given instead of loans to the more vocal objectors as the game changes yet again toward greater integration. Anyone reading the Grauniad nowadays desperately needs a life.

    Wasn't it just a couple of weeks ago that those in the more prosperous north were traumatised at the thought of debt mutualisation, promising their people it would never happen? How quickly people forget!

    EU members are being royally fcuked sideways, and not a peep, they're luving the thought of a few billions very little if any of which will trickle down to those that really need it.

    The sooner this Socialist project goes pop the better; won't be pretty.

  11. #18961
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    You'd have thought the UK would have started to wind down trade with the EU by now and started to ramp up trade deals with other countries. But no, the government is either in Dreamland or still can't picture the post Brexit trade headaches. Building more lorry parks is not going to help if the daily 10,000 trucks are still wanting to use the Dover crossing next year. It's going to be everyone's worst nightmare if they think nothing will change.

    Boris needs to up his game...

  12. #18962
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    They need to change this routine of 'Play hardball...Play hardball...cave in and lose'

    It's very predictable.

    If the English have become so utterly shit at negotiating as this then maybe they really are better off out.

    What happened to those people who negotiated such great deals for the UK in the past?

  13. #18963
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    The Irish have been saddled with a massive bill for the costs of the EU covid aid package. A net cost of euro3,200 per head of population.
    Not to worry. It's unlikely to get through their parliament anyway, because it breaks the BUs own rules on printing money.
    The Irish media of course are trying to prevent the poor paddy's from learning that they will be paying more than those poor relations, the Germans.
    Even Ursula, the new gaffer is saying it breaks EU constitutional law.
    Just wait until tax harmonisation comes in. Ireland will be getting dry bummed again, when they are obliged to charge the same corporation tax as the rest of the EU. Those giant foreign corporations will be looking to relocate their massive European headquarters to a more friendly regime.
    I wonder where they might be?

  14. #18964
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    The EU's inner circle of elites will benefit greatly by all of this blatant criminality, the courts are pwned, the poorer comrades will be buried in debt and reduced to begging bowls each time payment date arrives, and no doubt a nameless few will pocket the occasional loose billion here and there since nobody really cares anymore, they know the game is up.

    Less pain can be had by pulling the bad tooth sooner rather than later.

  15. #18965
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    On the bright side the EU did manage an agreement in record time and the interest rate is very low and should be for some time making the debt a little more manageable. The downside is that many of the more ambitious programs will be scaled back or dropped, including their ambitious green house target, which would be a shame. The double whammy of the loss of a major contributor at a time of major spending will mean higher taxes to pay for it. Convincing the basket cases like Italy and Greece to reform their tax systems will prove challenging if not impossible. Meanwhile in the event of a no deal Brexit in which I think Boris has wanted all along, will mean no exit fees that the EU was counting on. Fishing rights are still a headache but they should come to a reasonable deal for the EU fisherman providing the EU finally comes to the realisation that they will lose control of British waters. To think Boris will let them keep control, which would be political suicide, is the height of delusion. I believe little will change fishing wise in British waters other than they will now require a British license which will allow Boris to say, "we've taken back control".

  16. #18966
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    I hear rumours of Farage stirring up quitalia with the five star party. Covid managed to turn the Italian public against the EU and he's trying to drive some nails into the coffin.

    This one isn't quite so easy with Italy being in the Euro and having a bat shit crazy tax and justice system almost as bad as the Thai one...

  17. #18967
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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  18. #18968
    Thailand Expat lom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Cow View Post
    Meanwhile in the event of a no deal Brexit in which I think Boris has wanted all along, will mean no exit fees that the EU was counting on.
    You may of course think what you want but the financial settlement to be paid by UK was made binding when UK signed the withdrawal agreement half a year ago.

  19. #18969
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  20. #18970
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    We won't know who tries to leave next until it happens, but having seen what UK went through to date, in pure economic terms any Eurozone member would have a much harder time extricating itself from the failing currency.

  21. #18971
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    Quote Originally Posted by jabir View Post
    from the failing currency.
    On what basis do you think the euro is a failing currency? It's been called that for the 20 years it's existed but still keeps going.

  22. #18972
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troy View Post
    On what basis do you think the euro is a failing currency?
    Now, you just know you’ll get no answer to that.

  23. #18973
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    Quote Originally Posted by lom View Post
    You may of course think what you want but the financial settlement to be paid by UK was made binding when UK signed the withdrawal agreement half a year ago.
    There is no actual final costing so that has to be negotiated first. In any case once the Brits have filled the EU begging bowl they can go on their way.

  24. #18974
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    Brexit will deliver double shock to UK economy, study finds

    LSE report says even sectors unscathed from coronavirus crisis will be severely impacted

    A Brexit hit is looming for sectors that have emerged relatively unscathed from the Covid-19 pandemic, new data has showed.


    A report from the London School of Economics says Brexit will deliver a double shock to the economy – with worsening business conditions for those sectors that have survived the impact of coronavirus and lockdown measures – whether Boris Johnson secures a deal with the EU or not.


    The analysis, seen by the Guardian ahead of its publication on Wednesday, includes information from a monthly survey of Confederation of British Industry (CBI) members.


    “Our analysis shows that the sectors that will be affected by Brexit and those that are suffering from the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown are generally different from each other,” said Swati Dhingra, co-author and economics professor at the LSE.


    A “simultaneous impact” will be felt across the business spectrum from Brexit and coronavirus from the autumn when chancellor Rishi Sunak’s new policies aimed at supporting the unemployed end and the new trading environment for Brexit begins to bite, the research finds.


    The report, titled Covid-19 and Brexit: Real-Time Updates on Business Performance in the United Kingdom by the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance shows that sectors entailing more human contact - including hospitality, air travel, restaurants, hotels, and arts and entertainment – have been the hardest hit by the pandemic.


    Other sectors such as the scientific industries, professional services including accountancy, legal services and publishing have been less impacted because they can continue to operate with staff working from home.


    Among those reportedly continuing to operate with remote working are firms such as Vodafone, Google, consultancy KPMG, GlaxoSmithKline, Rolls Royce and consumer goods giant Unilever.


    But Brexit will impose new barriers on those trading goods or services with the EU, whether pharmaceutical companies seeking regulatory approval, banks or services needing to transfer data from servers in the bloc or car manufacturers or clothes importers required to fill in customs declarations for the first time in decades.

    The report points out that as far back as 2017 the government announced that Brexit would be guided by impact assessments across sectors; it has provided detailed analysis in only 10 sectors to date.


    “The government must move beyond its broad assessment of Brexit impacts to much more finely tuned plans” in preparation for the “biggest slowdown of our lifetime” said co-author, Josh de Lyon, research assistant at the LSE centre.


    Dhingra said the coronavirus pandemic had “reduced the capacity of the UK economy to take further shocks” and “rushing Brexit through” would “broaden the set of sectors that see worsening business conditions”.


    Using monthly data collected by the CBI on business experiences and expectations of growth or declines, along with what it describes as “state of the art” modelling, the centre has been able to assess the outlook for the next three months.


    LSE, like other big institutions, is loath to put a figure on the projected combined shock to the economy although various sectors have warned of hardship coming down the tracks with Make UK, the manufacturing trade body, warning that more than half of the manufacturing sector is planning redundancies when the business support schemes end.


    The report urges the government to put in place an industrial strategy that “must reflect” the cold reality of “being in a post-Brexit UK which is placed in a post-Covid world economy” in which global trade shrinks.


    Brexit will deliver double shock to UK economy, study finds | Politics | The Guardian

  25. #18975
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    ^ I think the UK tourist industry, which was forecast to grow to 10% GDP by 2025, has hit an unwanted brick wall. It's going to take more than a couple of slogans to keep the UK prosperous post Brexit.

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