Thread: Brexit - It's Still On!

Originally Posted by Troy

Happy Christmas to our Brexit loving friends and fellow remainers.

Ya, happy Christmas to all, and happy Tuesday to the snowflakes.

Seekingass must have had a complete breakdown. Haven't heard from him in a while.

Originally Posted by buriramboy

No need for the referendum? Over 33 mill thought otherwise enough to be bothered to vote in it. A50 won't be revoked, best you can hope for is it gets extended but all 27 EU countries would have to agree to that and Doris would have even less credibility than she does now if that's possible were she to apply to extend A50. Extending it is pointless as the EU have repeatedly said this is the only deal. So spineless mps either cave in and accept Doris deal which they No doubt will or it's a clean Brexit.

An excellent piece of fishing, albeit using dubious tactics, by the media. Plenty of ground bait thrown in, to get the electorate into a feeding frenzy, before casting. Easy to see why the turnout was high given such media attention.

Merry Christmas everyone. Perhaps Fubar will find something to object to in that statement, as it is entirely without malice or verifiable references.

^ It's so heartfelt how could I possibly object?

Green sent.

Well, I have to say, the Maybot is playing her bluff to the end, calling in the Cabinet early to flesh out Hard Brexit plans.

Interesting to hear Gove is petrified of hard brexit now, considering he was one of the leading voices during the Brexit campaign. No doubt he'll be the piece of shit that hits the fan if such a tragic event arises...don't bother listening to the experts indeed.

Originally Posted by Troy

Interesting to hear Gove is petrified of hard brexit now, considering he was one of the leading voices during the Brexit campaign.

He reminds me of jabir.

Hoping that he'll be able to look back at some point when his position was, in hindsight, correct and say 'That was my position'.

"The Mars bar could face extinction in the UK should the country leave the UK without a Brexit deal."

Michael Gove

Good to know the future of the UK is in safe hands.

A man who actually does look how his spitting image puppet would look.

Originally Posted by Cujo

Seekingass must have had a complete breakdown. Haven't heard from him in a while.

One hopes he enjoyed his Christmas dinner and listened to the Queen's Speech. A little respect for those that have different opinions, Brexit included.

A Boxing day question for you Switch ...

This managed no-deal Brexit that you predicted, what is it exactly? I mean surely a managed brexit is the May agreement and an unmanaged brexit is a no-deal break.

What does your predicted outcome entail and how will it make the country comfortable in the knowledge it is the right thing to do?

Rick Moranis.

Originally Posted by Troy

A Boxing day question for you Switch ...

This managed no-deal Brexit that you predicted, what is it exactly? I mean surely a managed brexit is the May agreement and an unmanaged brexit is a no-deal break.

What does your predicted outcome entail and how will it make the country comfortable in the knowledge it is the right thing to do?

Here’s the worst case scenario from the Telegraph.

It is reported that no fewer than 11 Cabinet ministers are now in favour of a ‘managed no deal’ if a Withdrawal Agreement cannot be agreed by Parliament.
The difficulty for supporters and opponents of a ‘managed no deal’ is predicting what that world would actually look like, because what happens is dependent on a complex mish-mash of political, legal and technical decisions that both sides currently don’t want to talk about honestly.
Remainers warn of logistical Armageddon as Kent becomes a lorry park and the supermarket shelves go empty; while at the other end of the spectrum, clean-break Brexiteers suggest the EU can be paid for a one-year transition period to give the UK the chance to prepare to trade smoothly on WTO Rules. The messy truth will lie somewhere in between.
The difficulty with ‘no deal’

The fundamental problem with ‘no deal’ is that in the absence of a Withdrawal Agreement under Article 50, there is no legal basis for a smooth exit.
The status quo transition period that Brexiteers imagine ‘buying’ off the EU is a unique creation that is made possible by Article 50 which acts as a bridge to a future relationship with a departing member state. Transition does not legally exist without a Withdrawal Agreement.

In a ‘no deal’ world, the UK defaults into being a non-member EU state, a so-called ‘third country’ which abruptly leaves the UK interacting on a minimalist legal base with the EU, impacting everything from trucking permits to data-transfers and derivative contracts.

Furious Theresa May confronts Jean-Claude Juncker over Brexit attack

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What does the EU say will happen?

At the moment, the EU is trading in Armageddon scenarios precisely because it does not want to encourage the idea that a ‘managed no deal’ exists. As a result, what one EU source calls a “political handbrake” has been applied to publicising no-deal planning. More details are expected this week, but given the state of the negotiations, these too will be refracted through a political prism.
Officially, the European Commission is taking a very hard line, arguing that the UK must fall back on ‘third country’ arrangements. If this was enforced it would be deeply disruptive.

For example, road hauliers would fall back on a licensing scheme that only covers 5 per cent of current traffic and “all relevant” EU legislation would instantly apply to imports and exports at the border, causing massive tailbacks at Dover and Calais.
There would be a total ban on food of animal origin until the UK registers as a ‘third country’, hitting farms on both sides of the Channel; airlines that do not hit 50 per cent EU ownership thresholds (like WizzAir and Iberia) would be unable to fly ‘point to point’ inside the EU.

On dataflows (the lifeblood of modern business) the EU is ruling out temporary ‘equivalence’ regime forcing businesses onto costly and cumbersome alternatives. Only on financial services is there some small measure of latitude.
So what will actually happen?

This is where it gets very hard to predict, because as one EU diplomat privately admits, how tough the EU will actually be, will depend on whether EU member states will allow the European Commission to prosecute what will be seen in the UK as a vindictive ‘punishment’ Brexit.
Will the Irish government really accept a regime that enables the EU to enforce a truckers permit regime that only grants licenses to about 1,000 out of some 13,000 of its truckers, many of whom use the UK as a land-bridge to Europe? Will the Spanish government allow a situation to persist where Iberia cannot fly from Barcelona to Madrid?
If the Commission pushes too hard, EU member states are likely to take unilateral protective measures, shattering EU unity.

Chopper's Brexit Podcast Episode 85

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Similarly with vet and food imports inspections, will France, the Netherlands and Ireland allow 30-mile tailbacks at their ports or will they ultimately look for practical temporary solutions?
“The reality is that you at least have to be seen to be trying to protect the EU legal order, even if you don’t have all the infrastructure in place,” said an EU diplomat from one of those countries familiar with EU internal no-deal planning discussions. “In practice, there will need to be patches and fixes.”

So as member states pass their own ‘no deal’ planning legislation, it is a fair assumption that ‘patches and fixes’ will be the order of the day, as countries move to protect their affected industries from excessive damage caused by Brexit. The difficulty, again, is knowing how far these will go.
So it’ll be alright on the night?

This is arguably the danger: the EU will not talk in detail about what a ‘no deal’ actually looks like, and the British government is similarly reticent because it too wants to push the Withdrawal Agreement through the Commons.
The risk therefore is that the fallout from even a best-case mitigated ‘no deal’ is underestimated because it cannot be properly calculated, allowing a much rosier picture of a ‘no deal’ world to be painted than is likely to transpire.

Ultimately, a no deal will by definition represent a serious step down from current arrangements, and it will not change the fact that the UK is going to need a trade deal of some form with the EU, given the bloc remains the destination for 43 per cent of all UK exports.
Negotiating that deal will be tough; negotiating it from the position where the EU has been able to impose costly and disruptive frictions on the UK economy is going to be tougher still.

This scenario fails to recognize that a managed no deal still requires the E.U. to continue trading with a crucial partner, even though it has now aligned with WTO and has 3rd country status. Without realistic levels of cooperation and common sense being applied, the commission risks undermining the loyalty of member states to the Eutopian ideal. It could quite easily fragment the Union.

Sounds like the UK are reliant on the EU being nice, or at least charitable. That's not exactly taking back control is it...more like not having a clue and letting the EU decide instead. I guess at least that allows the government to blame the EU again, if it all turns ugly.

I prefer my solution, staying in the the EU with all its benefits. I would prefer further integration, making a fully united Europe, but I recognize that isn't too popular at the moment.

Originally Posted by Troy

I recognize that isn't too popular at the moment.

The last and largest understatement of 2018.

Originally Posted by Troy

Sounds like the UK are reliant on the EU being nice, or at least charitable. That's not exactly taking back control is it...more like not having a clue and letting the EU decide instead. I guess at least that allows the government to blame the EU again, if it all turns ugly.

I prefer my solution, staying in the the EU with all its benefits. I would prefer further integration, making a fully united Europe, but I recognize that isn't too popular at the moment.

Yet under the May deal, the UK has zero control and still pays heavily for the transition and ensuing instability for the next two years.
Kindly explain how that is a good deal?

It isn’t relying on the E.U. to be nice. I expect them to be honourable and respect the decision of the UK to leave. I realise that this has as much chance as your further integration, but do remember, when nation states feel threatened by a managed no deal, it will take precidence over loyalty to Eutopia.
Hence my lack of concern over the E.U. being nice.

Originally Posted by Switch

It isn’t relying on the E.U. to be nice. I expect them to be honorable and respect the decision of the UK to leave.

Expectations, everybody has them. Lots of them..
I'd expect that Britain, after being a EU member for 40++ years, would know what the difference between being a member or being an outsider is, which privileges a membership brings and the impossibility of giving those privileges to a non-member state.
Britain has wasted more than 18 month on trying to keep those privileges while at the same time knowing how impossible that is.
Doesn't cost anything to try, eh? Yes it does, it costs precious time which Britain is running out of.

I didn't realise until recently that the managed no-deal also requires an A50 extension to sort out all the side issues. It sounds as easy as getting the EU to jump up and down wanting a trade deal. "They need us more than we need them"; appears to have failed miserably.

The major EU countries are united politically in their view on brexit so trying to split them on economic terms is going to fail. It already has so expecting it to suddenly change is foolhardy.

One would hope that the UK learn from brexit and realise just how good the EU is in keeping a united front in the face of adversity. The UK may also learn how beneficial it has been to be part of the EU over the years and start to appreciate them. It is not perfect by any means and there is definitely room for some British direction but it's worth sticking with.

The two brexit options, May's agreement and managed no-deal are both bad options. The best option, by far, is the third option, to stay in, for both political and economic reasons.

A change of leadership and a change in direction is needed. I'd even go further and have new MEP elections and trade our rebate for some more influence in Brussels. A little financial restructuring and I'd have the Euro as well. Let's face the UK could make Europe great again.

Originally Posted by Troy

Sounds like the UK are reliant on the EU being nice, or at least charitable. That's not exactly taking back control is it...more like not having a clue and letting the EU decide instead. I guess at least that allows the government to blame the EU again, if it all turns ugly.

I prefer my solution, staying in the the EU with all its benefits. I would prefer further integration, making a fully united Europe, but I recognize that isn't too popular at the moment.

"managed no deal" wtf is that new pipe dream? Only demented fools could think of that one,

Maybot can't manage a simple agreement with the EU, how is that going to work out when all hell breaks loose?

your UK politicians are incapable of negotiating or managing anything in a peaceful situation, and you trust them that they will when they are stranded in a difficult storm?

right, and you guys still believe in Santa

Originally Posted by Switch

Yet under the May deal, the UK has zero control and still pays heavily for the transition and ensuing instability for the next two years.
Kindly explain how that is a good deal?

It isn’t relying on the E.U. to be nice. I expect them to be honourable and respect the decision of the UK to leave. I realise that this has as much chance as your further integration, but do remember, when nation states feel threatened by a managed no deal, it will take precidence over loyalty to Eutopia.
Hence my lack of concern over the E.U. being nice.

Not very 'nice' that the best they are prepared to offer is a crap deal that gives them control on what happens next, to the extent that they could hold us as a vassal state indefinitely. Imho it can and will only get worse.

But in fairness they cannot be blamed for that; negotiators are not social workers, their job is to get the best possible deal for the master, and if the other side has a PM that fancies herself as a negotiator and gives broad assurances early on in return for nothing, then that's what she'll get.

Originally Posted by Troy

A change of leadership and a change in direction is needed. I'd even go further and have new MEP elections and trade our rebate for some more influence in Brussels. A little financial restructuring and I'd have the Euro as well. Let's face the UK could make Europe great again.

Can't let that happen!!!!

Originally Posted by lom

Expectations, everybody has them. Lots of them..
I'd expect that Britain, after being a EU member for 40++ years, would know what the difference between being a member or being an outsider is, which privileges a membership brings and the impossibility of giving those privileges to a non-member state.
Britain has wasted more than 18 month on trying to keep those privileges while at the same time knowing how impossible that is.
Doesn't cost anything to try, eh? Yes it does, it costs precious time which Britain is running out of.

cherry pick partial quotes does you and readers a disservice.

Originally Posted by Switch

cherry pick partial quotes does you and readers a disservice.

you are mad

Expecting a good exit deal from the EU is equivalent to crashing out of your gym membership halfway through your contract, but still expecting to be able to use the facilities anytime you want, then when your swipe card stops working, creating a scene at reception, shouting and balling at no one in particular on how management are being really unfair and dishonourable because they are not respecting your decision to leave the club.

The UK has no leverage with the EU.....The choices are stay or hard Brexit.