Thread: President Donald Trump

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As usually, 'arry did not disappoint us...

President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.

Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.


The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.


“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Mr Norpoth said.


If the prediction is correct, former vice president Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage due to losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The professor also said the model, which predicted Mr Trump’s election in 2016, worked partially by discounting opinion surveys.
“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he said.

The prediction comes as a number other election models have suggested that Mr Trump will lose to Mr Biden as a result of a number of factors including the ongoing pandemic.


A national election model by Oxford Economics has predicted that Donald Trump will suffer a “historic defeat” in November’s election due to the coronavirus economic recession.

The Oxford model predicted the winner of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections and presented a complete reversal of its prediction before the coronavirus outbreak hit the US.


Another forecast by The Washington Post preliminarily predicted Mr Trump will receive only 24 percent of the electoral college votea, but only on the condition that the economy and the president’s approval rating continues its downward trajectory.
However in Mr Norpoth’s model, not only will the president be re-elected, but he will expand his margin in the electoral college from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020.

The one thing many predictions seem to agree on is that the election could rest crucially on Mr Trump’s leadership of the US through the coronavirus pandemic and mitigating the public health crisis’s impact on the economy in the upcoming months before November.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9609236.html

The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.

So with most of that data missing, he's pretty fucked then.

How do you measure "enthusiasm" anyway?

'Republicans are really fed up': GOP increasingly splits with Trump as his polls drag

WASHINGTON – Weeks before President Donald Trump accepts his party's nomination, cracks are deepening within the party as a host of GOP lawmakers distance themselves from the Republican standard bearer as they weigh their election chances in November.


Republicans have increasingly split with Trump on a host of issues shadowing his administration, from his tone on racism and the removal of Confederate statues, to wearing a face mask amid the coronavirus pandemic and questions over intelligence reports of a Russia-backed bounty program on U.S. troops in Afghanistan.


It's a rare moment in the president's three-and-a-half-year tenure, during which Trump otherwise relished inparty unity on issues such as his impeachment and former special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation.


"There’s a real disagreement between the president and his party in this election,” said Alex Conant, a GOP strategist and former aide to Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. "I think a lot of Republicans are really fed up with the president's divisive strategy. People are just throwing up their hands with some of the rhetoric that's coming out of the president. It's really unhelpful not just to his own re-election, but also to keeping the Senate."

MORE Election 2020: Trump exposes cracks in GOP ahead of Florida convention

Thank you mods for demoting Noodles Trump thread thread to here. I again warn you to watch this guy. He has a definite agenda.

Trump confirms cyberattack on Russian trolls to deter them during 2018 midterms

By
Ellen Nakashima
July 11, 2020 at 9:10 p.m. GMT+7

President Trump has acknowledged in an interview with a Washington Post columnist that he ordered a clandestine military cyberstrike against Russian trolls in 2018 to disrupt their Internet access during the midterm elections.

Asked by columnist Marc Thiessen whether he had authorized the operation, Trump said “Correct,” according to a piece posted Friday.

Trump in an interview confirms a U.S. cyberattack on Russia

Until now, neither the White House nor the Pentagon had publicly confirmed the operation, which had been classified.

Trump sought to frame his action as an example of being more aggressive than his predecessor in countering the Kremlin. President Barack Obama, he said, “knew before the [2016] election that Russia was playing around. Or he was told. Whether or not it was so or not, who knows? And he said nothing.”

In fact, the Obama administration publicly called out Moscow in October 2016 for its hacking of Democratic computers, and Obama directly raised the matter with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In December of that year, Obama imposed sanctions on Russia over its interference in the presidential election.

Still, the admission is a rare instance of Trump acknowledging that Russia had malign intent with respect to American democracy. He even seemed to brag about his role in deterring such efforts.

“Look, we stopped it,” the president told Thiessen.

The admission comes as U.S. intelligence officials have warned that Russia will seek to disrupt this year’s presidential election.

For the most part, Trump has avoided acknowledging such warnings and that Russia has sought to sow discord in the United States, even siding with Putin in his denials that Moscow interfered in the 2016 presidential elections — despite his intelligence agencies’ conclusion to the contrary.

Cyber Command operation disrupted Russian troll access to the Internet during 2018 midterm elections

The Washington Post last year reported on the U.S. Cyber Command operation against the Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg, a company underwritten by an oligarch close to Putin. IRA trolls were active during the 2016 campaign, posing as Americans to post material online in an effort to stoke conflict by exploiting racial and other societal tensions.

The operation was part of the first offensive cyber-campaign against Russia designed to thwart attempts to interfere with a U.S. election, officials told The Post. It marked the first use by Cybercom of new authorities granted by Trump and Congress in 2018 to bolster offensive capabilities.

The attack began on Election Day and lasted several days, preventing the Russians from mounting a disinformation campaign that cast doubt on the election results, officials said.

The Russian Embassy did not respond to a request for comment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...af1_story.html

Trump confirms, in an interview, a U.S. cyberattack on Russia
Opinion by
Marc A. Thiessen
Columnist
July 11, 2020 at 6:15 a.m. GMT+7

This column is the second of two I’m writing based on my interview with President Trump on Wednesday. Read the first part here. (President Donald Trump)

During an Oval Office interview with me this week, President Trump acknowledged for the first time that, in 2018, he authorized a covert cyberattack against Russia’s Internet Research Agency, the St. Petersburg-based troll farm that spearheaded Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and was doing the same in the 2018 midterm elections.

Asked whether he had launched the attack, Trump replied: “Correct.”

Trump said that, in 2016, President Barack Obama “knew before the election that Russia was playing around. Or, he was told. Whether or not it was so or not, who knows? And he said nothing. And the reason he said nothing was that he didn’t want to touch it because he thought [Hillary Clinton] was winning because he read phony polls. So, he thought she was going to win. And we had the silent majority that said, ‘No, we like Trump.’ ”

Unlike Obama, Trump says, he acted on the intelligence he was given about Russia’s election interference by striking its cyber capabilities.

“Look, we stopped it,” the president said.

The cyberattack was previously reported in The Post, but Trump had never officially confirmed it until now. Senior U.S. officials also confirmed for me that the strike occurred and was effective, taking the Internet Research Agency offline.

Trump had elevated U.S. Cyber Command to the status of a unified command in 2017 and gave it new authorities to conduct offensive cyberoperations in 2018. The cyberattack appears to have been the first that was designed to frustrate Moscow’s attempts to interfere with a U.S. election.

Russian interference in the 2018 midterm elections was serious and pervasive. In February 2018, then-Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee that “the United States is under attack,” and that Russia had been emboldened in 2018 by the success of its previous influence operations, for which the United States had imposed no price. During the hearing, Democrats accused the Trump administration of failing to prepare to protect the 2018 vote. “We’ve had more than a year to get our act together and address the threat posed by Russia and implement a strategy to deter future attacks. But we still do not have a plan,” the committee’s top Democrat, Sen. Mark R. Warner (Va.), told the intelligence chiefs.

Well, it turns out Trump did have a plan. In March 2018, during a White House news conference, Trump was asked about possible Russian election interference. “We won’t allow that to happen,” Trump said. “We’ll counteract whatever they do. We’ll counteract it very strongly.” And unlike his predecessor in 2016, he did so, using America’s offensive cyber capabilities in an unprecedented way against Russia’s interference operations.

During our interview, Trump said the cyberattack was part of a broader policy of confronting Russia throughout the world. “Nobody has been tougher on Russia than I have,” he said. The president offered a litany of actions he has taken to counteract Russia. “I could give you 30 different things,” he said. “I sent [Ukraine] a massive number of antitank busters. I sent them military equipment and Obama sent them nothing. That’s against Russia,” he says. “I made us the number one oil-producing country in the world. It wasn’t even close. I made us number one — that’s bad for Russia.”

The president also cited his pressure on Germany to cancel the Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline from Russia and avoid becoming even more dependent on Moscow that it already is. “Germany is paying billions of dollars, billions to Russia,” Trump says. “And we’re supposed to protect Germany from Russia. How does that work?”

But his “biggest” move of all to counter Russia, Trump said, has been his restoration of America’s military: “I rebuilt our military. We now have the newest military we’ve ever had. . . . That’s not good for Russia either. You understand?”

Trump has used that military against Russia, and not just in cyberspace. The New York Times reported that U.S. forces killed several hundred Russian mercenaries during a February 2018 firefight in eastern Syria.

Talking about his efforts to counter Russia, the president also pointed to his success in persuading NATO members to increase their contributions to the transatlantic alliance. “I raised $140 billion from NATO countries going up to $400 billion [over three years], and what’s the purpose of NATO? Russia.”

Trump said that, thanks to his efforts, eight NATO allies are now meeting their NATO commitment to spend 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense. “And by the way, 2 percent is too little,” he said. “I had some that were paying almost nothing, and now they’re paying. And they asked me the big question: Would you leave if — and I said, ‘Yeah, I would leave.’ And if you don’t give that answer, they’re not going to pay.”

But does the president want to exit NATO? “No, I don’t want to leave,” Trump said. “But I want them to pay their fair share.”

Trump recently announced that he is withdrawing nearly 10,000 U.S. troops from Germany. He told me that some of the troops will be going to Poland. “Two different locations, including Poland. I’m also bringing some back home. I’m bringing about half back home and half are going to different places that deserve it.”

The president said that even though “every week, we put more sanctions on Russia,” he and Russian President Vladimir Putin “actually have a very good relationship.” The two leaders are “trying to work out a nuclear arms treaty that’s going to be a significant one. . . . There is no more important thing that we can do than nuclear arms control.”

I asked him about Russian support for the Taliban. Regardless of whether Russia actually paid bounties to kill U.S. troops, as has been reported, Russia is supporting the Taliban, which is killing Americans. Shouldn’t Moscow be punished? “I think Russia, the last thing they want is to get involved with Afghanistan,” Trump said. “Okay? The last thing they want. They were there for a long time. The Soviet Union became Russia because of Afghanistan, because they got beaten so badly in Afghanistan.” With U.S. troops withdrawing (“We’re almost out”), the president said, his attitude is that if Russia wants to go back into Afghanistan, “Enjoy yourselves.”

I asked Trump why he is so determined to withdraw completely from Afghanistan and Syria, as opposed to leaving a small counterterrorism force to train and enable local fighters and help them fight our enemies for us? Why the determination to get to zero? Trump didn’t reply directly, saying: “I’m certainly not a globalist. And I don’t think there’s anything wrong with saying that. I think globalists are not in vogue right now. Because when we were globalists, we were losing with everybody.”

On the subject of China, Trump said that Chinese cyberoperations against the United States exceed those of the Russians, but it receives less attention because “Democrats and their donors and others, frankly, are all making a lot of money with China until I come along. Until the China flu came along, the China virus came along, until this happened, we were beating them so badly. It was incredible. That’s why people say, ‘Do you think it was an accident?’ It was gross incompetence or something happened, but one thing they did, they let it escape the country. That’s one thing they did. And it was a big change in many different ways, including political.”

The president said that Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) have made his dealings with China more difficult. “If I make a deal and it’s a phenomenal deal, let’s say a trade deal with China, Schumer and Pelosi will say, ‘It’s a terrible deal.’ They won’t have ever seen the deal. If I say, ‘No, you don’t understand. China’s giving us everything, they’re giving us everything, and we can buy Beijing for one dollar,’ they’ll say, ‘It’s a terrible deal.’ Anything you do is a terrible deal.”

The “automatic” opposition, he said, is “standard political. But it’s so bad for the country.”

Does Trump think it would change during a second term? Would Democrats be forced to cooperate if voters give him another four years? “The only way it’s going to, we have to keep on winning. It was starting to change until we got hit with the China virus. It was starting to change. They were starting to come around toward the end. And then this happened. This changed things. And now they think they have a chance.”

Nonetheless, Trump remains confident about November, thanks to “the greatest base in the history of politics. . . . Have you been watching the boats in Florida, all over the country? Thousands of boats every weekend. They have thousands of boats, and cycles, you know the bikers for Trump? They had a line last week, it went miles long, bikers for Trump, and they have the flags and the whole thing.”

“I love the country,” Trump said, “and so, despite all of the things I have to do, I just feel I have to do it right.” Here is something he did right. While Trump is accused of not taking Russian interference seriously, he did more than Obama ever did to combat it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...attack-russia/

I can't be bothered wading through that shit but one thing I'm sure of is that if there was a cyber attack on russia A: Trump wouldnt know about it and B: Good.

Some make claim of the hate for trump by the other side, as if it is an astute observation
Of course we hate trump , why don't you? . But did they ever wonder why we hate trump? Why we did not hate Bush us much or other republicans but we hate trump. Is it possible that he deserves to be hated? and that those who do not hate him are in some way mentally deficient ?
Please don't get upset being termed mentally deficient. What would you cal someone who cannot see the obvious?

Originally Posted by aging one

Thank you mods for demoting Noodles Trump thread thread to here. I again warn you to watch this guy. He has a definite agenda.

What does that mean?

Thank the fools for giving up so easy.......

Attorney General William Barr listens as United States President Donald J. Trump, unseen, speaks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Tuesday, June 16, 2020.
Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images


Key Points

• An administration official told NBC News that Attorney General William Barr recommended against granting Stone clemency, and the Justice Department had nothing to do with Trump’s decision to commute his sentence.
• Other White House officials were also opposed to Trump’s decision due to fears of political blowback, including Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, according to a person familiar with the matter.
• Former special counsel Robert Mueller broke his trademark silence to condemn the president’s rationale for the move, and to defend his investigation.

Attorney General Barr told Trump he shouldn'''t grant Roger Stone clemency

Key Points

• White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci says he hasn’t briefed President Donald Trump on the coronavirus for at least two months.
• Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an interview with the Financial Times that he hasn’t seen Trump at the White House since early June.
• His comments come after Trump told Fox News’ Sean Hannity on Thursday that Fauci “is a nice man, but he’s made a lot of mistakes.”

Coronavirus: Trump'''s rift with White House health advisor Fauci widens as cases hit new records

BMM

Credit

Black Masks Matter!

Originally Posted by English Noodles

The one thing many predictions seem to agree on is that the election could rest crucially on Mr Trump’s leadership of the US through the coronavirus pandemic and mitigating the public health crisis’s impact on the economy in the upcoming months before November.

In that case, he might be screwed.

many people in Australia who decided the BLM protests here were not to their liking still like to defend their position by clinging to the idea that the protests were the spark to spread covid-19 in this country

of course encouraged by business and media interests who fear that their wage slaves might stay home and withdraw their labour

not wanting to acknowledge that is was the common dickhead who railed against the BLM activities that has caused the problem - see the current outbreak of selfish wankers who had to visit a crowded pub in sydney

majority of people do not want to take responsibility of behaving in a selfish manner and get very defensive if you point out the risks of their behaviour

common sense is not as common as people like to proclaim

Revealed: Trump plans to build new 'world class coastal retreat' in Scotland


The Trump Organisation is planning a major expansion of its flagship international property, targeting retirees and wealthy golf enthusiasts with a new “world class coastal retreat” which would see hundreds of private houses, luxury apartments, and retirement villas built at its world-famous Turnberry resort.

MORE Revealed: Trump plans to build new 'world class coastal retreat' in Scotland | The Scotsman

Originally Posted by David48atTD

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Credit

Black Masks Matter!

So Trump can't even wear a jacket correctly....

Always, always, always button when standing! Looks like a sack of shite otherwise....