Thread: The U.K and the E.U - In or out?

Originally Posted by Chittychangchang

British economy feels the 55 million pound a day burden lifted from it's shoulders.

How much Britain will have to pay in order to maintain trade with the EU is yet to be determined. However, it will be a substantial chunk of that 55million you think will be saved.

Originally Posted by piwanoi

The depth of opinion from ex pat's locally tends to agree with you

A link? Or is that your mates down the local?

I think a Brexit will cause turbulence in the markets and exchange rates during exit negotiations and beyond and, short to medium term, the Euro and the Sterling will drop 5 - 10%

Originally Posted by Troy

Originally Posted by Chittychangchang

British economy feels the 55 million pound a day burden lifted from it's shoulders.

How much Britain will have to pay in order to maintain trade with the EU is yet to be determined. However, it will be a substantial chunk of that 55million you think will be saved.

Originally Posted by piwanoi

The depth of opinion from ex pat's locally tends to agree with you

A link? Or is that your mates down the local?

I think a Brexit will cause turbulence in the markets and exchange rates during exit negotiations and beyond and, short to medium term, the Euro and the Sterling will drop 5 - 10%

Self explanatory ,I said the Ex Pats locally , sorry no link

Originally Posted by Troy

Originally Posted by Chittychangchang

British economy feels the 55 million pound a day burden lifted from it's shoulders.

How much Britain will have to pay in order to maintain trade with the EU is yet to be determined. However, it will be a substantial chunk of that 55million you think will be saved.

Originally Posted by piwanoi

The depth of opinion from ex pat's locally tends to agree with you

A link? Or is that your mates down the local?

I think a Brexit will cause turbulence in the markets and exchange rates during exit negotiations and beyond and, short to medium term, the Euro and the Sterling will drop 5 - 10%

Great news, makes exports cheaper and Chinky stuff more expensive.

Do the polls in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland show any significant differences (for/against) Brexit?

Originally Posted by Norton

Do the polls in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland show any significant differences (for/against) Brexit?

From March 2nd, but still...

The green area of Scotland does not take this latest development into account..

Many SNP supporters will vote LEAVE, as recommended by one of their former stalwarts, Jim Sillars, who spoke with excellent clarity and logic.

"The SNP position does not make sense ; its tactical analysis is poor, and its posture on the consequences of the result is simply incoherent."

"Nationalists face a challenge ; they must separate their loyalty to the party from their loyalty to the cause of independence.

"This will mean voting for the SNP in May and against them in June.

"When assessing what outcomes will advance the cause of independence, objectivity and logical analysis, not blind loyalty will be required."


Mr Sillars has vowed to campaign for an 'Out' vote on June 23.

^^Thanks. Interesting. I asked because seems to me a vote to exit will give some a reason to leave the UK and stay in the EU.

Looks to me a vote to leave the EU is going to have negative economic and political implications for some time to come.

No dog in the fight. Just my take on it.

The UK would still be able to trade freely within Europe even if it left the EU, Michael Gove has said.
The justice secretary said the UK could be part of Europe's free trade area to avoid trade tariffs, even if it was not a member of the EU single market.
The pro-Leave campaigner also said a UK exit would lead to the "democratic liberation of a whole continent".

Mr Gove used a speech in London to set out his vision of what the country would look like in the event of a vote to leave the EU on 23 June.
On trading, he said the UK would be part of the European free trade zone with access to the European single market but "free from EU regulation which costs us billions of pounds a year".

Michael Gove sets out post-exit UK-EU trade vision - BBC News


There are two possible ways to conduct economic arguments. The first is to accept that one’s opponents are genuine and intelligent, and to attempt to address their arguments as fairly and honestly as possible, even if one ultimately finds them wanting. Some of the greatest economists of the 20th century, from all sides of the ideological spectrum, including John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman, embraced this approach, to great effect.

The second is to heap ridicule on your opponents, assume that they are either nasty, stupid or “economically illiterate”, before deliberately distorting or ignoring what they have to say while carefully cherry-picking the best possible assumptions to feed into your own mathematical models to generate your favourite conclusions.

“Forget about trying to be scientific to get to the truth, or having a civil debate: the only thing that matters is winning at any cost”
Tragically, the government has now chosen this second approach on Brexit. It didn’t have to resort to this; even though I disagree, there is a credible pro-EU economic case that can be made. Yet the Treasury report on the supposed long-term impact of leaving the EU is shameful, undoubtedly the worst piece of “research” from a government department in years.

It starts off with a scandalously biased assumption: that there can be no possible economic benefits to Brexit, just costs. In other words, it’s not really a cost-benefit analysis of Brexit, but merely a cost-cost one. And not just any costs, mind: in each case, any downsides are magnified in an extreme way.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...eath-contempt/

Originally Posted by Chittychangchang

The UK would still be able to trade freely within Europe even if it left the EU, Michael Gove has said.

It doesn't matter a damn what the idiot Gove says. What matters is what the other EU countries say and do.

Tuesday 19 April 2016 04:59 GMT
The Treasury has it entirely wrong: The British economy would gain from Brexit
Patrick Minford

The Treasury has produced its 200-page report about the effects of Brexit on the economy. Predictably, it is highly negative. It is sad that the Treasury, for which I once worked for a few years, has become so politicised that it is reduced to rationalising the views of George Osborne.

The modelling methods it has used to do Osborne’s bidding are the ones anyone would employ to rubbish Brexit. They involve estimating relationships over the past between such things as trade with the EU or Foreign Direct Investment, or tariffs and GDP. Unfortunately, as I pointed out in my book on the UK and the EU, these estimated relationships are highly unreliable when it comes to considering a whole new world of trading rules, which is what Britain would face after leaving the EU.

The basic point you have to ask is how the whole economy would react to the main alternative to our current regional EU rules, which is global trading rules under the World Trade Organisation (WTO). For this you need the sort of model I used in my book, a global world trade model. The results from such a model are perfectly intelligible to anyone and, what is more, they tally with what we all understand about free trade: that the wider the freedom we have to trade, the better the result.

Now consider what the EU arrangements we have actually are. The EU is a protectionist organisation known as a “Customs Union”; this raises barriers through tariffs and other non-tariff means against every country outside it. These barriers raise the price of goods sold inside the EU by the protectionist margin; so prices are higher for everything bought from anywhere that is protected against in this way. This is because, to sell into the EU, you must pay the tariff and also the extra costs of the non-tariff barriers.

The gainers from this Customs Union are the EU producers inside the protective wall: like children in a walled garden, they enjoy a cosseted life. EU producers sell their products inside the EU at inflated prices.

But the losers are the consumers who pay these inflated prices. It is a matter of some irony that our chancellor praises this Customs Union as a wonderful “free trade arrangement”! It takes your breath away that he should dare say this to UK voters and consumers. But of course they are blown away by his confident rhetoric, and who are they to argue?

When we measure the extent of the EU protective wall, we find that it is rather high, quite contrary to this rhetoric. Food prices are nearly 20 per cent higher on average, and average manufactured prices a bit more than 20 per cent higher. Even assuming, as I did in my book, that there is some reduction in this protection over time, to say 10 per cent on each, the overall effect of the EU on the consumer shopping basket is to raise it by 8 per cent – around £40 a week for the average consumer.

By leaving the EU, we move to global free trade; goods come in here from all over the world at world prices, without the EU add-on. Our consumers benefit. Our producers have to earn their way in the world at the true world prices of their products: the industries that do best will be our best industries, not our most protected ones.

But even the protected ones will not fare so badly: they will face world competition at home and they can still sell to the EU and pay the external tariff, which is only about 4 per cent on average. Under WTO rules, the EU would be unable to inflict the non-tariff barriers on them because our producers do not “dump” and they completely adhere to EU regulations already.

People ask: can we rely on the WTO to police these rules? Yes we can: the WTO is an active and powerful system of international courts that all members highly respect. Since all countries, including the US and the EU, use it repeatedly against others, they obey its judgements when they go against them. It enforces non-discrimination, the “most favoured nation” principle: that is all we need outside the EU because it means we sell our goods on a world market where no-one can arbitrarily discriminate against us, including the EU.

By leaving the EU, we go to global free trade and we rid ourselves of the intrusive EU regulation that bears down most heavily on our smaller firms who cannot afford huge HR and compliance departments. The gains to our economy from this are huge, as anyone would readily expect. The trade gain amounts to 4 per cent of national income, directly enjoyed by our voters even after spending some of it helping out those affected producers, including our farmers. The gain from getting out of the heavy-handed regulation of our whole economy by the EU is more again, and a boost to our growth rate. The Treasury report gets it precisely the wrong way round.

EU referendum 2016: The Treasury and George Osborne have it entirely wrong on the impact of leaving the EU: The British economy would gain from Brexit | City A.M.

That's been my argument and view all along on the Brexit vote, ever since Britain joined in the rip-off deal.

There was only ever a clear advantage for manufacturers, banks, landowners, share-holders and the rich in Britain's membership of that protectionist club.

[QUOTE="DrB0b"]What matters is what the other EU countries say and do.

Especially on Trade which will effect jobs and business.

No free movement of people = no free movement of trade.

No free movement of people = no free movement of trade.

Really. Amazing how we manage to sell all those billions of goods and services to Non-EU countries, eh?

Out for sure.

I dont personally know anyone who wants to stay in.

Even VIPs who are campaigning to stay in seem to think the EU is crap. Hardly a ringing endorsement is it !

The old Common Market was okay. It mutated into something horrible

Originally Posted by CR7CristianoRonaldo

I dont personally know anyone who wants to stay in.

I don't know anyone who voted to join in the first referendum.

I think that both sides are so eager to gain votes that they are failing in their duty to explain the pros and cons of Brexit sufficiently.

I have still not heard what the exit EU brigade are proposing in terms of a Free Trade Agreement with the EU. Are they thinking of an FTA similar to Norway or one similar to Switzerland or are they going alone without any FTA? Has a clear solution been decided on....or is it a typical Brit suck-it-and-see/get-out-first approach?

Perhaps those who have decided Brexit is a good idea could enlighten me?

Originally Posted by Bettyboo

What we do know

Can you be a bit more specific? What "we" know differs depending on who "we" are.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Amazing how we manage to sell all those billions of goods and services to Non-EU countries, eh?

We're talking about the European market of 500 million. Nobody knows for sure how this trade for trade will work or cost.
How many use UK market because of membership in Europe.

Candidates from both sides are putting forward positives about leaving and remaining.
Top man in Europe for Trade says Gove is wrong.
Nobody will know until it happens really.

We've had disasters in banking and immigration.
Would it have been any different if UK had been outside of EU.

Few in the western world are having it easy and it ain't going to get any better for at least another 10, 20 yrs.. f 30yrs.

If the UK gets the changes that are necessary now. who knows.
But workers rights and conditions may take a big hit.

I hope we can stay in.

I've got some ready cash here for those single-nationality Brits who will need to sell their houses or businesses on the Costa or the Algarve once Britain has exited the EU and they no longer have residence rights in Europe. Happy to buy Italian properties, will pay up to £500 sterling or the equivalent in imported agricultural produce or dirty postcards for nice Tuscan villas.

Originally Posted by Troy

I think that both sides are so eager to gain votes that they are failing in their duty to explain the pros and cons of Brexit sufficiently.

I have still not heard what the exit EU brigade are proposing in terms of a Free Trade Agreement with the EU. Are they thinking of an FTA similar to Norway or one similar to Switzerland or are they going alone without any FTA? Has a clear solution been decided on....or is it a typical Brit suck-it-and-see/get-out-first approach?

Perhaps those who have decided Brexit is a good idea could enlighten me?

Did you read post #235?

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Originally Posted by Troy

I think that both sides are so eager to gain votes that they are failing in their duty to explain the pros and cons of Brexit sufficiently.

I have still not heard what the exit EU brigade are proposing in terms of a Free Trade Agreement with the EU. Are they thinking of an FTA similar to Norway or one similar to Switzerland or are they going alone without any FTA? Has a clear solution been decided on....or is it a typical Brit suck-it-and-see/get-out-first approach?

Perhaps those who have decided Brexit is a good idea could enlighten me?

Did you read post #235?

That's a lightweight opinion piece. It doesn't answer any of the questions Troy asked. It's Panglossian nonsense, God help us if that's what passes for political and economic discourse in the UK.

Stay in voters are like teenagers too frightened to leave home ...

This is the kind of stuff i hate :
110 million visa free travel handed out , no doubt more due to corruption in selling passports.

Forty million Ukrainians will be able to travel to continental Europe without a visa, under a major loosening of border policy unveiled in Brussels today.
Ukrainian citizens with biometric passports will be permitted to enter 30 states in the Schengen zone for 90 days for tourism or business.

The EU is offering a similar scheme to grant visa-free travel to 70 million Turkish citizens from June

EU offers visa-free travel to Ukraine

Originally Posted by Troy

I have still not heard what the exit EU brigade are proposing in terms of a Free Trade Agreement with the EU.

no one could know
its up to the government to negotiate the future deals
same as with the countries that we trade with outside the EU who now have punitive import tariffs imposed .
whats important is we get to escape the little protectionist club and have have as much or as little free trade as we like .

Originally Posted by blue

Originally Posted by Troy

I have still not heard what the exit EU brigade are proposing in terms of a Free Trade Agreement with the EU.

no one could know
its up to the government to negotiate the future deals
same as with the countries that we trade with outside the EU who now have punitive import tariffs imposed .
whats important is we get to escape the little protectionist club and have have as much or as little free trade as we like .

Don't you think it would be good to know who is willing to trade with us before we vote to cut off our major trading partners and turn our backs on open access to the world's largest single market? Right now nobody has any idea. The vote is in two months and nobody has any idea at all of what would happen if Britain exits the EU. Not a single new treaty is in place and not a single other country has indicated any intention to trade with the UK. You wouldn't even have a parish council vote over who was going to clean up the vestry under those circumstances. Seems like economic suicide to me, all because of a stupid promise made by Cameron back when he thought UKIP was a threat.