The U.K and the E.U - In or out?

Given the greatest number of those EU nationals claiming tax credits, proportionate to their migrant population, are in fact Irish citizens it is quite understandable why there may be resistance to a deal between Cameron and Tusk.

Frankly, tax credits should have been abandoned as a welfare stream when Brown lost his election. It is a complex and cumbersome system that subsidises employers in maintaining an artificially low wage culture.

If Britain cast aside the culture of benefit dependence and our lower end dross were compelled to work then this aspect of EU conflict simply wouldn't arise. As it is we are dependent upon migrants to do the work traditionally undertaken by our lumpen lower end who now of course loll about in feckless indolence suckling from the teat of welfarism.

Our entire care system for the elderly and much of the NHS is founded upon migrant labour and would collapse if it were not available.

Quitting the EU is daft on just so many levels but I suppose one must never underestimate the stupidity of the British, as so vividly demonstrated by many posters here.

The prime minister faced two hours of questions from MPs on the draft agreement unveiled by the EU which paves the way for the UK's in/out referendum.
Responding to Mr Johnson, he jabbed his finger on the despatch box to emphasise his point, telling his Conservative colleague: "I am not saying this is perfect, I am not saying the European Union will be perfect after this deal :rofl::UK:

UKIP leader Nigel Farage has, meanwhile, told MEPs Mr Cameron's deal was "hardly worth the wait" and "really rather pathetic", adding that it had "no treaty change, no powers returned, and no control of our borders".

EU referendum: Cameron 'happy to be judged' on draft deal - BBC News

Some people will vote out just because they hate/mistrust Cameron; others because of the migrant/illegal immigrant issue, and desperate scramble for jobs, houses, and school places... The fear of leaving isn't very strong, because nobody can really see much benefit from staying in. It seems that life would be a lot simpler being out. No need to worry about all the catastrophes afflicting countries across the water.
The EU seems to have failed to bribe enough of the public to keep them hanging in for the socialist economic disaster they're desperately trying pull together. They've also made it far too easy for their enemies. I mean the idiocy of letting all those people through, and the now frequent terrorist attacks, and corruption issues and yooman rites stories... ultimately not many people feel they have got much in the way of economic vested interests there. The few that have are pensioners renting out their gaffs to immigrants, or a special affluent urban lefty elite.
There's nothing in it for us.

So whats in it for cameron?
why would he and all the other power hungry politicians want to be in the EU when it just adds a tier of government above them,

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Originally Posted by blue

So whats in it for cameron?
why would he and all the other power hungry politicians want to be in the EU when it just adds a tier of government above them,

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Same as all the other gravy train EU politicians...

https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2016/02/228.jpg

Blair's financial assets are structured in a complicated manner, and as such estimates of their extent vary widely.These include figures of up to £100 million; Blair has stated he is worth less than a "fifth of that".A 2015 assertion, by Francis Beckett, David Hencke and Nick Kochan, concluded that Blair had acquired $90 million and a property portfolio worth $37.5 million in the eight years since he had left office.:UK:

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Originally Posted by blue

So whats in it for cameron?
why would he and all the other power hungry politicians want to be in the EU when it just adds a tier of government above them,

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economics

The moron category, ill educated and 40 plus in most cases is simply not big enough or smart enough to turn the vote into a Brexit.
Anyone under 30 educated to degree level has zero experience of life outside the EU and they are not only accustomed to life in a society of multiple cultures, they are at ease with it because they are growing up in a global culture.
Big business is awash with experienced leaders who are smart, but still resistant to change. Their job is increasingly difficult and the last thing they want is the complication of change.
Finance, industry and economics dictate that the status quo will remain, because they are all interconnected and looking in the same direction for future success.

Not saying it's right, or that I agree with it, but the chances are we will remain in the EU because of those vested interests and resistance to change.

Scotland Stronger in Europe names Mona Siddiqui as chairwoman - BBC News

https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2016/02/234.jpg

A Scottish-based campaign to keep the UK in the EU has named Prof Mona Siddiqui as the chairwoman of its advisory group.
Prof Siddiqui is professor of Islamic Studies and Christian-Muslim Relations at the University of Edinburgh.
She has pledged to ensure Scotland Stronger in Europe makes a "positive, factual, people-based" case for the EU.
The UK-wide campaigns to leave the EU have not yet set up Scottish operations.
Scotland Stronger in Europe, which is the Scottish arm of Britain Stronger in Europe, will formally launch later this week. It will be headquartered in Glasgow, and has said its advisory group will be gender balanced and include people from both sides of the independence referendum debate.
It will not contain any serving politicians, recognising the intentions of several parties to run their own campaigns.
Prof Siddiqui said: "The campaign to show that Scotland is better off in Europe will be positive, factual and people-based - making the case that our quality of life is better and horizons broader by keeping our place in the European Union.
"We will be working extremely hard to contribute to a UK-wide vote to stay in Europe, whenever the referendum is called."
Prof Siddiqui is a fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, holds four honorary doctorates, and an honorary fellowship of the Royal Society of Scottish Architects for her contribution to public life.
In 2011, she was awarded an OBE for her contribution to interfaith services. In 2015, she was named in the Debretts top 500 list of the most influential people in the UK.

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Originally Posted by CaptainNemo

Some people will vote out just because they hate/mistrust Cameron; others because of the migrant/illegal immigrant issue

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The UK opted out of EU policies on immigration. They are not part of the 1985 Schengen Agreement and very little of the 1997 Treaty of Amsterdam applies.
Migration Watch UK | An independent, voluntary, non-political body concerned about the scale of immigration into the UK.

Perhaps you mean freedom of movement of EEA nationals within the EU...

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Originally Posted by Troy

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Originally Posted by CaptainNemo

Some people will vote out just because they hate/mistrust Cameron; others because of the migrant/illegal immigrant issue

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The UK opted out of EU policies on immigration. They are not part of the 1985 Schengen Agreement and very little of the 1997 Treaty of Amsterdam applies.
Migration Watch UK | An independent, voluntary, non-political body concerned about the scale of immigration into the UK.

Perhaps you mean freedom of movement of EEA nationals within the EU...

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It's not really relevant what the policy actually is, it's what the perception is amongst the voters.
https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2016/02/247.jpg
https://teakdoor.com/images/smilies1/You_Rock_Emoticon.gif
https://teakdoor.com/images/smilies1/You_Rock_Emoticon.gif
What people see is a column of zombies a million strong marching through safe countries inside and outside the EU to their borders; they see terrorist attacks in Paris; they see the Jungle in Sangatte; they see no-go ghettos in their own country already; they feel wages suppressed, housing costs pushed up, and access to basic services like schools and hospitals under incessant pressure.
They see a media determined to push a particular narrative whose overt goal is to bring as many more people into the country as possible.

...but that's only one section of society. There's also those who hate the Tory-Toffs/Fatcha/Murdoch etc... and who are Corbynist zealots who will simultaneously hold contradicting views and vote accordingly (i.e.: irrationally).

...but that too is only one section of society. There's also the dainty middle-classes who are terrified by the prospect of their world being tainted by incoming miscreants, and losing opportunities they feel entitled to.

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Originally Posted by chassamui

The moron category, ill educated and 40 plus in most cases is simply not big enough or smart enough to turn the vote into a Brexit.
Anyone under 30 educated to degree level has zero experience of life outside the EU and they are not only accustomed to life in a society of multiple cultures, they are at ease with it because they are growing up in a global culture.
Big business is awash with experienced leaders who are smart, but still resistant to change. Their job is increasingly difficult and the last thing they want is the complication of change.
Finance, industry and economics dictate that the status quo will remain, because they are all interconnected and looking in the same direction for future success.

Not saying it's right, or that I agree with it, but the chances are we will remain in the EU because of those vested interests and resistance to change.

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Alright, let's break that down...
Who votes the most:
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchp...aspx?view=wide
In GE 2015, turnout was:
43% for 18-24, 54% for 25-34, but for categories above 45 it's well over 70%

Apathy might be affected a bit by general "voting culture" (or lack thereof) in certain parts of the UK:
General election 2015: Some votes count 30 times as much as others because of Britain's archaic election rules | General Election 2015 | News | The Independent

Experience outside the EU?
You're forgetting the cultural pull America has over the EU.
Yes, the EU generates more funded opportunities, but since the cost of education in the UK has been allowed to rise, so has the interest in going across to the USA
http://go.international.ac.uk/sites/...ell%202014.pdf
(p32+)

It's the growth rate that's interesting, not the size. US universities generally score higher than EU ones in most subjects, and because of the language are more accessible. I think more and more young people are more excited by the prospect of going to study and work abroad in north America (and Australia) than by the EU with all it's problems - extremely high youth unemployment being one of them. If you want to make yourself more employable as a nipper, going to Japan, Korea, and China is more exciting than the EU. Still, I think the US is a bigger pull both culturally and economically, and there is a shift away from pro-EU-ness towards indifference to the EU in that demographic. This does tally with your "ease with global culture" point too.


Whilst big business leaders are resistant to change, they are also resistant to bureaucracy and economic and political instability, which is what has characterised the EU increasingly over recent years.
There's a cost-benefit analysis here, and a "not putting all your eggs in one basket" analysis, and no experienced leader is going to be so resistant to change that they will continue to back something that is losing them money in preference to surfing the tide of economies that are growing.

We do more trade outside the EU:
https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2016/02/248.jpg

The growth rate in the Euro area has been and promises to be pants for the foreseeable:
https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2016/02/249.jpg
Forecast Table
This is not part of some amorphous global crisis, but to do with the EU being a fundamentally flawed concept executed incompetently. Experienced leaders know this, and will adjust their trade direction accordingly, either by choice, or by events.
I agree that economics has the biggest say in this, but the status quo is not working for the hoi polloi, and there's now this new aspect of terrorism that has transformed what was a smouldering economic threat from the EU to a safety-on-the-streets threat. Some people still remember the riots 15 years ago, and 5 years ago...


You may notice the percentage of news articles that attack the leaver campaigns and the number of fearmongering articles abour leaving is disproportionately large compared to any similar traffic the other way.

A poll 2 days ago by pro-EU left-wing pollers YouGov:

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36%
of voters want Britain to remain in the EU



45%
of voters want Britain to leave



19%
of voters are yet to decide or plan not to vote

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EU referendum: Poll suggests rising number of Britons intend to 'vote leave' - ITV News

https://teakdoor.com/images/smilies1/You_Rock_Emoticon.gif

Your first point about age group voting will apply to recent elections. A referendum is a different animal and young educated voters are more invested in a once in a lifetime opportunity.
The later graph actually demonstrates how volatile inclinations are rather than supporting your point.
Just saying.

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Originally Posted by CaptainNemo

It's not really relevant what the policy actually is, it's what the perception is amongst the voters

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A very valid point and why I have said that the UK are in danger of voting themselves out of the EU for all the wrong reasons.

Successive governments have blamed the EU for their actions despite them having less to do with the EU than the average Joe realises. This includes allowing EU nationals into the Country when they were not required to (Blair Govt) and blaming EU immigration policies, which they had not even signed up to.

The UK has had plenty of time to move closer towards Europe rather than stay semi-isolated from it. If they end up deciding to distance themselves more then it will depend on who is at the helm and how they will change policies to suit their new freedom. I can't see any leader that is capable of doing this so they will end up like a disabled ship at sea facing a force 10 storm.

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Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

may be resistance to a deal between Cameron and Tusk.

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Its hard enough to save for a rainy day in UK. The average Joe would struggle if the company closed or a job lost inside that 4 yrs.
Folk would be vulnerable surely, especially if they have kids.
Bills would keep rolling in that need to be paid.
In this crazy world a cushion would create just a lil security for emergencies.
Without it a guy could easily end up with a lot of debt.

Debt being slavery seems to be accepted now instead of shame.

There's always an ulterior motive, especially when the Tories are concerned.
One good reason Cameron is sabre rattling for less EU control is the EU are trying to clamp down on UK offshore tax havens such as the British owned Cayman Islands, which incidentally is where many multinationals such as Google choose to keep their accounts.

Tories lobbying to protect Google?s £30bn island tax haven | Technology | The Guardian

^
Cameron is a sellout, so whoever's the highest bidder.

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Originally Posted by lom

Relieve us from the fekking whining Englishmen, the Scots and the Irish can stay as members.

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That's about right. The UK has so many opt-out clauses and still moans at every turn, the main gripe seems to be the curvature of sausages and complaining about sausages needing to be filled with meat rather than offal, gristle and sinew like in the good old days

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Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

The day the UK votes to quit the EU in toto would see the £ fall by at least 30%.

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Not a bad estimate - seeing as it dropped 9% based upon the possibility of Scottish independence.

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Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Scotland would demand, and get, an immediate referendum to quit

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And so they should - Britain will crumble

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Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Britain by itself in the world would be utter shite not least because the country is host to a significant minority of welfare trash and the work ethic is pitiful.

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. . . who are all busy complaining about foreigners who work and pay taxes for these scum to receive their government handouts

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Originally Posted by CaptainNemo

It's not really relevant what the policy actually is, it's what the perception is amongst the voters.

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The EU should just give the whiners the boot . . . and let them reminisce about the glory days while these glory days are coming home to roost in the form of millions upon millions of Commonwealth and ex-colonies best and brightest going to the US and the mainland while the less than wonderful 'flooding' the the smelly isles . . .

Yup. Poles or Pakistanis . . .

:england:

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Originally Posted by alwarner

The savings that the vote will be sold on will not end up in the tax payers pocket.

Vote out of the EU and watch the minimum wage and other tertiary human rights that go along with membership will go down the toilet.

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As Nigel Farage wishes...................

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Vote out of the EU and watch the minimum wage and other tertiary human rights that go along with membership will go down the toilet.

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Scare mongering.

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Originally Posted by Pragmatic

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Vote out of the EU and watch the minimum wage and other tertiary human rights that go along with membership will go down the toilet.

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Scare mongering.

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Not true: The EU introduced a number of changes to protect workers rights.

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Originally Posted by Pragmatic

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Vote out of the EU and watch the minimum wage and other tertiary human rights that go along with membership will go down the toilet.

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Scare mongering.

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min wage ? a quick look

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ges_by_country



https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2016/02/323.jpg Italy None; instead set through collective bargaining agreements on a sector-by-sector basis.

https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2016/02/325.jpg Sweden None; in Sweden the law provides for the right of workers to form and join independent unions to bargain wages collectively, and it prohibits antiunion discrimination

https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2016/02/327.jpg Denmark None; instead, negotiated between unions and employer associations

Yeah Sweden - wouldn't wanna be like Sweden, would we.

:rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by Ronin

Not true: The EU introduced a number of changes to protect workers rights.

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And who says the law won't remain in the event of a UK pullout? Have you got a link saying it will be scrapped?

^This a big part of the problem. A lack of independent accurate information. All the public has to go on is what politicians and vested interest groups tell them, plus carefully selected drip feed from the media.

No one really knows or understands the implications of staying in or leaving, because no one can predict the future with any kind of accuracy.

You can spout all you like about social and economic implications, but it is all an opinion and nothing more.

No doubt major multinationals and the finance industry will have done their homework and come up with a plan A and B to suit both possible outcomes.

Here's and interesting view;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0EBKRm9s74

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Originally Posted by chassamui

You can spout all you like about social and economic implications, but it is all an opinion and nothing more.

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Not really, the implications of renewed bordercontrol and processing of im/exports can easily be predicted.

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Originally Posted by stroller

Not really, the implications of renewed bordercontrol and processing of im/exports can easily be predicted.

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It's really not that simple. First of all you now have to get the agreement of all 28 sovereign states on who can do what and how. The views will be polarised by the different implications for each country and based on individual state needs, so it is far from easy to predict.
While the most powerful states insist on greater political union, the UK case will have alerted other members to the consequences of integration at the expense of lost sovereignty.
If each member state decided to cherry pick the best bits of EU membership, we would see a return to the original common market. Greater political union means more unelected and unaccountable bureaucracy.

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Originally Posted by chassamui

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Originally Posted by stroller

Not really, the implications of renewed bordercontrol and processing of im/exports can easily be predicted.

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It's really not that simple. First of all you now have to get the agreement of all 28 sovereign states on who can do what and how. The views will be polarised by the different implications for each country and based on individual state needs, so it is far from easy to predict.
While the most powerful states insist on greater political union, the UK case will have alerted other members to the consequences of integration at the expense of lost sovereignty.
If each member state decided to cherry pick the best bits of EU membership, we would see a return to the original common market. Greater political union means more unelected and unaccountable bureaucracy.

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Cherrypicking isn't done by most and how the UK got away with it for so long while still blaming everything o the EU is a mystery. I do believe they should just fuck off out of the EU

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Originally Posted by panama hat

Cherrypicking isn't done by most and how the UK got away with it for so long while still blaming everything o the EU is a mystery

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Originally Posted by panama hat

If each member state decided to cherry pick

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How did the UK get away with cherry picking anything? The aim of the UK government has been to reform elements of EU policy, especially those giving the EU greater political control over UK matters. That is reform and not cherry picking. It will only happen if all EU member states agree to it.

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Originally Posted by panama hat

I do believe they should just fuck off out of the EU

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That would indeed be the most sensible solution. The UK however has a democratic responsibility to protect its own citizens and in the modern world, preserve those mutually beneficial areas of union membership for all states.
The alternative is to lie down while Germany and France seek ever greater political control over all member states. They want concensus without the burden of democracy and accountability.

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Originally Posted by chassamui

How did the UK get away with cherry picking anything?

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You can start withn the Euro and keep going ad infinitum

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Originally Posted by chassamui

The alternative is to lie down while Germany and France seek ever greater political control over all member states.

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Ah, at least you aren't just opening the cavernous 'BAD GERMANY' but add France to that equation.
So now it's two countries that would lay siege to all things British, condemning the UK to groveling at their feet.
Drama much, Chas?

The best way to combat an issue is from the inside, but if running away from issues like a frightened cur - barking loudly but doing nothing? :rolleyes:

It's the tired and old 'Europe wants British Banger Banned' crap

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Originally Posted by chassamui

They want concensus without the burden of democracy and accountability.

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So, you're saying there are no elections? No elected officials? No accountability for their actions? :rolleyes:
Wow . . .

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Originally Posted by panama hat

You can start withn the Euro and keep going ad infinitum

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The UK never met the criteria to join. Hardly cherry picking is it?

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Originally Posted by panama hat

So now it's two countries that would lay siege to all things British, condemning the UK to groveling at their feet. Drama much, Chas?

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Your words not mine. The UK chooses not to support further political integration within the EU. That's not drama, it's common sense. It was, and should remain, a free trade association with common standards, not a political behemoth.

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Originally Posted by panama hat

The best way to combat an issue is from the inside,

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Agreed 100%.

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Originally Posted by panama hat

So, you're saying there are no elections? No elected officials? No accountability for their actions? Wow . . .

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Only MEPs are elected. All the commission and institution heads are unelected. They are the decision makers who decide budgets and legal positions within the EU. See if you can google when the last EU accounts were audited it begins with 19

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Originally Posted by chassamui

See if you can google when the last EU accounts were audited it begins with 19

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No, thanks . . . I'll take your word for it

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Originally Posted by chassamui

It was, and should remain, a free trade association with common standards, not a political behemoth.

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You and I totally agree there - it was a massive mistake to extend the economic baseline into a political baseline, even the Euro caused many problems in the beginning, in terms of conversion, weighting etc . . . and then there are the Greeks, may their armpits be infested with fleas and may their arms grow too short to scratch them.
As far as I am concerned, NATO as a symbol of European unity was sufficient.

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Originally Posted by panama hat

As far as I am concerned, NATO as a symbol of European unity was sufficient.

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NATO has many benefits to the EU but the political integrity of sovereign states is not one of them.
In fact, the Alliance’s creation was part of a broader effort to serve three purposes: deterring Soviet expansionism, forbidding the revival of nationalist militarism in Europe through a strong North American presence on the continent, and encouraging European political integration.

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Originally Posted by chassamui

Only MEPs are elected. All the commission and institution heads are unelected. They are the decision makers who decide budgets and legal positions within the EU.

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Sigh..
The decision makers are the MEPs. The commission suggest to the parliament and implements after parliament has decided.
I don't think France elected the British commissionaire.

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Originally Posted by lom

Sigh.. The decision makers are the MEPs. The commission suggest to the parliament and implements after parliament has decided. I don't think France elected the British commissionaire.

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The commissioners decide policy. They are all unelected and unaccountable. The MEPs are directed by the commissioners, who decide what policy needs voting through. It's a corrupt unmitigated farce.

The European Commission is the only institution empowered to initiate legislation. The head of the commission is appointed not elected.

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Originally Posted by chassamui

NATO has many benefits to the EU but the political integrity of sovereign states is not one of them.

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That's why I wrote:

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Originally Posted by panama hat

symbol

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There were dramatic scenes in Brussels in the early hours of this morning as it became clear that David Cameron had secured his preferred voting format for the Eurovision song contest.

According to the new rules, the votes will be collated from the individual countries as usual, and then, right at the end, the results of the Europe-wide public vote will be announced, thus rendering the interminable previous two hours utterly pointless.

This is David Cameron’s preferred format as on Saturdays he takes the family to the pub and he needs time to find any misplaced daughters.

The new voting system will allow him to do so, and make it home to see the big drama at the end.

The victory was hard-fought, with many countries having their own preferred formats; Germany would support a penalty shootout to decide the winner, Italy and France favour some form of sexy kissing vote system, Belgium were pushing for major changes to make it the ‘Eurovision Biscuit contest,’ Spain would prefer to see more slaughtering of bulls, and Ireland joined a lot of the Eastern European countries in trying to make the whole thing much more about drinking.

https://teakdoor.com/images/imported/2016/02/997.jpg

When asked whether he had made any deals on freedom of movement, trade, benefits, the Euro, or vetoes, Mr Cameron replied that he’d ‘got the Eurovision thing in the bag,’ and gave a slightly manic smile.

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Originally Posted by chassamui

a free trade association with common standards,
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that could easily evaporate if UK left the EU. No ? China also.

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Originally Posted by Neo

There's always an ulterior motive, especially when the Politicians are concerned.
One good reason Cameron is sabre rattling for less EU control is the EU are trying to clamp down on UK offshore tax havens such as the British owned Cayman Islands, which incidentally is where many multinationals such as Google choose to keep their accounts.

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Oh yeah, like the Labour/WMD Party and the LibDem/Tuition-Fees Party were clamouring to shut them down when they were in power.

Go on, say it "Thatcher", "Right Wing Press", "Tory", same old rubbish - do you really honestly believe that Labour and the others are any different?!

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Originally Posted by panama hat

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Originally Posted by lom

Relieve us from the fekking whining Englishmen, the Scots and the Irish can stay as members.

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That's about right. The UK has so many opt-out clauses and still moans at every turn, the main gripe seems to be the curvature of sausages and complaining about sausages needing to be filled with meat rather than offal, gristle and sinew like in the good old days

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That is such a lie about what it's about, it can't go unchallenged.
The self-evident truth is that the UK signed up for an economic union, and never for a political one. Successive governments keep lying to the public to keep the UK locked in to what is ultimately an economic failure of an organisation. That's before we even get to the corruption, cronyism, expensive bureaucracy, and the self-evident false premiss of the EU being there to prevent war from happening again on the contintent. It's about culturally protestant relatively efficient northern european economies that function well being coerced into propping up culturally catholic relatively inefficient economies, and now using lower gdp eastern european economies to sustain this facade.
If you wanted it to be about economics, you would pick all the most economically efficient economies and get them to team up and set a strict, rigorous, and transparent high bar for new entrant economies to join to maintain the standards such a union was based on.
If you wanted it to be about politics, you would pick all the most subsidary liberal democracies, with the least corruption and highest standards of rule of law and human rights, and only admit those who met those standards.
If you wanted it to be about defence you'd get all the most militarily successful states to team up etc...
...but instead, we get legislation about the standardisation of food stuffs; the imperatives on weights and measures, the demands for equal welfare for foreigners as if ethnic and national identity mean nothing, are non-existent, and only apply to brown people. The EU is it's own worst enemy, for beng so consistently incompetent - even at handling it's own PR. The fact that it can't even beat the likes of so-called "right-wing morons", and "little englanders", these supposed mentally and financially under-resourced minority, is testament to the the synonymity of those two letters EU with one word: failure. Riots in collapsed economies, due to corruption; murder on the streets in national capitals after the largest memberstate's leader advocates the collapse of EU external borders... I mean, would you hire these people to decorate your house? They're fecking morons on stilts, and greedy ones at that. Do you really think you're getting you're moneys worth paying the Kinnocks £3m a year, as their oxbridge-educated Danish first-gent plummy socialist spawn is parachuted into the valleys to represent the workers with his soft pale hands? FFS, what planet do you live on?! Before we even get to it being about freedom, and the right to say no, without multiple referenda to get the right answer, or endemic corruption, it's about basic competence.

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Originally Posted by panama hat

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Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

The day the UK votes to quit the EU in toto would see the £ fall by at least 30%.

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Not a bad estimate - seeing as it dropped 9% based upon the possibility of Scottish independence.

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This is not an estimate; it's not even a finger in the air guess; it's just wishful thinking.
The value of the pound will be determined by the value of the UK economy post-leaving, and that will be determined by whoever is in charge and whatever decisions they are advised to make by experts they call in, and we can be a lot more confident in putting a finger in the air and guessing that it won't Camoron, or Corbinman.

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Originally Posted by panama hat

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Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Scotland would demand, and get, an immediate referendum to quit

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And so they should - Britain will crumble

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Surely it will slide off the the edge of the flat earth onto a turtle's back?
Scotland might demand, but whether they will get is another matter; they would probably be delayed by the general election that Camoron's resignation might precipitate, along with the likely defenestration of Corbinman that could follow Camoron's ousting. Even the SNP would play for a bigger mandate... the chance for a successful attempt to destroy Labour in Scotland would be way too tempting. Moreover, the SNP would want to be damn sure they got a clear win if they were to get a second go - no half-chances would be worth it.
Even if they did, faced with the possibility of economic oblivion, and a low chance of making the grade to be admitted into the EU; never mind the unwelcome precedent it would set for other states like Catalonia and others to attempt secession that EU states would likely resist. Too many assumptions that don't take into account the lack of diversity in the Scottish economy, and the devastation being caused by long-term oil price decline.

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Originally Posted by panama hat

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Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

Britain by itself in the world would be utter shite not least because the country is host to a significant minority of welfare trash and the work ethic is pitiful.

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. . . who are all busy complaining about foreigners who work and pay taxes for these scum to receive their government handouts

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There are also other significant minorities who don't fall into that category; but economic necessity can drive change. It is a pretty morbid flaccid and pessimistic case to make - stay indoors because the world outside is scary.
For a lot of people that just isn't the case - so many Brits have ventured out into the big wide world beyond blighty, and beyond europe to create and build all over the world, and that is the optimistic, positive, virile case to make for breaking free of a flabby and useless EU experiment that has held us back.

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Originally Posted by panama hat

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Originally Posted by CaptainNemo

It's not really relevant what the policy actually is, it's what the perception is amongst the voters.

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The EU should just give the whiners the boot . . . and let them reminisce about the glory days while these glory days are coming home to roost in the form of millions upon millions of Commonwealth and ex-colonies best and brightest going to the US and the mainland while the less than wonderful 'flooding' the the smelly isles . . .

Yup. Poles or Pakistanis . . .

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Oh, so if we stay in the EU, we get nice clean white immigrants; if we leave the EU we get dirty smelly brown immigrants - is that you're argument?!
You seem to just buy into the racist fearmongering of the anti-Brexit lefty press...

The whiners are the ones who are trying to force Britain to stay so they can milk the cash cow for themselves and their friends, and so the EU can milk our economy to prop up their failed economies.
The UK can invent and create a brand new future, become a giant Singapore, a capitalist beacon of low tax and high trade, where the world comes to bank and to get qualty, design, culture, and education. Leave the scared little whiners in the EU to fight it out over who gets to pay for all their failures.
We can be creating a prosperous anglophone democratic future that resonates with our WASP heritage instead.

:england:

^
Great post.