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  1. #226
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    ^ Have you taken those yourself SL ?.

    Please don't tell me You are one of those nutter Farangs waving small yellow flags, blowing whistles and have Thai flags painted on the checks, running along with those insane and manipulated Suthep supporter sheeple SL ?

    There is plenty bad to be said about Thaksin, but he is not the real desperate worry for the elite, and the much more corrupt filthy power-players behind this rubbish, as most calm unbiased observers know.

    Funny you as a staunch Democrat supporter in your homeland, seem to support? this blatant undemocratic attempt of a coup, by a minority who is manipulated by some of the most unsavoury characters ever in Thai politics.

    Just because they have taken the name Democrats they don't necessarily practise Democracy, some people need to turn of the auto Dem. response in their system, and switch their hopefully perfectly good brain back on.

    This next bit is not in anyway meant to point to your personal situation SL.

    I have had the distinct impression through media and forum posts that some of the yellow (bellied) farang supporters, is more ruled by their pure accidental coincidence High So (or imagined High So) wifes, like with so many other things when it comes to Thai women (rural Isaan wenches too), many western men seem to completely forget every sensible thing they have ever learnt.

    They need to grow some balls and tell the hysteric little witches to STFU - "No I'm not going to any fvucking insane rubbish rally" - and now piss of out in the kitchen.




    From "Time world"

    "Thailand’s Democrat Party Is Hilariously Misnamed

    Don't believe Yellow Shirt talk of a "people's revolution" — what's being demanded is nothing short of a putsch"


    "It’s just that when it comes to Thai democracy, the ironically named Democrat Party is among the worst practitioners. Tens of thousands of Yellow Shirts are marching across the country, but demanding the establishment of royalist councils is hardly a people’s revolution. If anyone has been exercising people power, it’s the 15 million voters who elected Yingluck and her Pheu Thai party in July 2011. Thaksin-backed political parties have won the previous five elections with significant majorities, and Thaksin’s own populist policies helped bring millions of rural poor out of poverty. He remains the kingdom’s most popular Prime Minister since the abolition of absolute monarchy in 1932."
    Last edited by larvidchr; 13-01-2014 at 02:35 PM.

  2. #227
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    Pictures circulating last night on twitter of a protestor shot, can't find it now but here's a report on it:

    Protester from Nakhon Si Thammarat shot near Chaeng Wattana rally site


    January 13, 2014 6:47 am
    <H2 abp="129" itemprop="description">A protester was shot and seriously injured while he was guarding a barrier at the Chaeng Wattana rally site late Sunday night, police said.

    Pol Col Charoen Srisalak, deputy commander of the Metropolitan Police Divison 2, said Samrarn Chanthong-on, 36 a Nakhon Si Thammarat resident, was shot at around midnight.

    Charoen said eyewitnesses told police that man was shot by a motorcyclist who stopped at the barrier and talked to him briefly before a gunfire was heard.

    Smararn was rushed to the Mongkut Wattana Hospital and was in safe condition. He was shot by a shot gun at his left shoulder.
    </H2>Protester from Nakhon Si Thammarat shot near Chaeng Wattana rally site - The Nation

    Also, reports of a drive byshooting at a coffee shop where nobody was hurt...
    Last edited by khmen; 13-01-2014 at 02:42 PM.

  3. #228
    Guest Member S Landreth's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by larvidchr View Post
    Have you taken those yourself SL?

    Please don't tell me You are one of those nutter Farangs waving small yellow flags, blowing whistles and have Thai flags painted on the checks, running along with those insane and manipulated Suthep supporter sheeple SL?
    No. It was the girlfriend sending me some pictures. I’m in Khon Kaen, sitting back reading a book (Sea Wolf of the Confederacy) listening to Sirius/Blues and the TV on (sound down) watching the parades.

    Quote Originally Posted by larvidchr View Post
    There is plenty bad to be said about Thaksin, but he is not the real desperate worry for the elite, and the much more corrupt filthy power-players behind this rubbish, as most calm unbiased observers know.
    got that

    Quote Originally Posted by larvidchr View Post
    Funny you as a staunch Democrat supporter in your homeland, seem to support? this blatant undemocratic attempt of a coup, by a minority who is manipulated by some of the most unsavoury characters ever in Thai politics.

    Just because they have taken the name Democrats they don't necessarily practise Democracy, some people need to turn of the auto Dem. response in their system, and switch their hopefully perfectly good brain back on.
    And you’re right I do support the Democratic Party back home not only with my vote/s but with money. I do firmly believe in one person one vote and I could give a flying fuck about who is leading the Rallies here in Thailand.

    Now the catch,…….what that Pheu Thai Party tried to pull with that amnesty bill was wrong. Fuck ‘em,.red, yellow, blue, pink, whatever color…..you break the law,.you pay.

    I was fine with the last elections here in Thailand (even the girlfriend was except for her snide remarks every now and then about Pheu Thai).

    Quote Originally Posted by larvidchr View Post
    grow some balls and tell the hysteric little witches to STFU - "No I'm not going to any fvucking insane rubbish rally" - and now piss of out in the kitchen.
    I don’t talk to people that way. However I might have come close to responding to a Rethug or a tea-bagger here on this forum a time or two in a harsh way. Maybe a post or two of mine could have been deleted in the past. You know anything about removing my posts in the past?

    Now go-way and don’t ask me any more questions. I’m busy,….
    Last edited by S Landreth; 13-01-2014 at 04:18 PM. Reason: forgot,....about
    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

  4. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by S Landreth View Post
    Fuck ‘em,.red, yellow, blue, pink, whatever color…..you break the law,.you pay.
    Glad we got that sorted.

    So you agree Suthep should hang..... ?

    There are people who would turn Thailand into another Mexico, or Colombia and right now they are trying real hard. Thaksin, him bad man? You haven't seen anything yet.

  5. #230
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    ^^

    "Now go-way and don’t ask me any more questions. I’m busy,…. "

    All right then , but thanks for taking the time to reply, oh and the TD past is best left alone as you mostly where, enjoy the Sea Wolf.

  6. #231
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    Chula kids on stage singing at the MBK intersection which is right next to Chula land. MBK is Chula land. Chula is a school for the elite and royals. Fits the scenario. Lots of teachers around Thailand studied at Chula as it has an education faculty but Thammasat doesn't. Many teachers in the protests. It's amazing how they totally ignore the corruption of a career politicians such as Suthep and others in their group. Will they turn on him once they get what they want?

    Schools is Bangkok are having a terrible semester due to all these shutdowns and the teachers just don't give a crap. I'm ready to say fuck it and take a week off myself. It's hard to take work seriously when you don't know if you will have class or not tomorrow or next week. Another note on education that may somehow be a factor in this is Thai universities and high schools in Bangkok and I would guess the better ones upcoutnry are switiching to an international schedule first term next year. That means when the present term ends in March there will be a long break from the end of March until mid July / August. Some schools have a summer term but teachers are not required to teach it usually. Maybe this has some influence on the protests. The teachers involved can keep protesting and getting paid as they are mostly civil servants. Protest with full pay. That's corruption but corruption is not what these protests are about. Anyways there are lots of odd things to consider when looking at this protest and those participating in it.

  7. #232
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    Chula is a joke. I know several English teachers that went there that can't hardly speak English. Not enough to teach that is and just enough to make a fool of themselves. They like to brag about going to Chula as if it is some badge of honor. In Thailand, after graduating from there, they get a job wiping a chalk board off failing as a teacher. If they went to the US they would be lucky to get a job wiping off tables at a diner and they would most likely fail at that too.

  8. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by P Kupic View Post
    Schools is Bangkok are having a terrible semester due to all these shutdowns and the teachers just don't give a crap..
    Not sure what the protest has to do with the attitude they always have....

  9. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by chitown
    Chula is a joke. I know several English teachers that went there that can't hardly speak English. Not enough to teach that is and just enough to make a fool of themselves. They like to brag about going to Chula as if it is some badge of honor. In Thailand, after graduating from there, they get a job wiping a chalk board off failing as a teacher. If they went to the US they would be lucky to get a job wiping off tables at a diner and they would most likely fail at that too.
    It's not perfect, but the students are pretty good. There are many good teachers there too; most with PhDs from UK/US. The 5 year education degree at Chula is decent, most of the students end up with skills strong enough to get much better paying jobs than teaching in Thailand. Chula students end up with a better education than a decent percentage of posters on this board.

    The Language Institute may employ lower level foreign teachers. Coincidentally, a certain army general's wife used to work there...

    Politically, Chula is an issue, full of PADites that want to close down social discourse and force their nationalistic ultra royalist propaganda, but there are also quite a few folks with differing political opinions aswellas folks with no political motivations who just want to teach...
    Cycling should be banned!!!

  10. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    Many good teachers there too; most with PhDs from UK/US.
    You can take the Thai out of the village, but you can't take the village out of the Thai. They can sit in a class all they want, but if they do not grasp "outside the box" thinking they have failed and will continue to do so. It is the silly Thai mindset that makes those diplomas they get from the USA / Uk fit for mounting on a toilet paper dispenser.

  11. #236
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    Sorry Chi, but I don't agree. I've met many so-called educated Brits and Americans who are totally stupid in every aspect; never mind the average uneducated moron. I've met (or know well) many Thais who work at Chula who are great people, very smart and would be comfortable in conversation/work in any country in the world - they graducated from your top universities, they can think outside the box just fine.

    I'll add: the problem in Thailand is not the people, it's the culture - the patronage culture that the PADites want to reinforce, and the false history created in the 1930s to keep the feudal lords at the top of the patronage system. That's the problem.

  12. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post

    I'll add: the problem in Thailand is not the people, it's the culture - the patronage culture that the PADites want to reinforce, and the false history created in the 1930s to keep the feudal lords at the top of the patronage system. That's the problem.

    The PAD should be rounded up and jailed. As well as that former PM that had the army shoot and kill nearly 100 reds back in 2010

  13. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    Sorry Chi, but I don't agree. I've met many so-called educated Brits and Americans who are totally stupid in every aspect; never mind the average uneducated moron. I've met (or know well) many Thais who work at Chula who are great people, very smart and would be comfortable in conversation/work in any country in the world - they graducated from your top universities, they can think outside the box just fine.
    I am talking more about mindset here. The ones I know that went to Chula are arrogant and full of themselves and they have no reason to be that way. They all act as if that Chula degree makes them something that should be worshiped and fawned over. You may know some that are different, but it has not been my experience.

    As far degrees? I am a firm believer that a degree does not equal success. I am unimpressed with pieces of paper and book smarts when you compare it to life experience and street smarts.

  14. #239
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    Teachers need to give them the incentive to think out of the box.
    Incentive,You will be very rich if you can master the language of business.
    Carrot ,
    Boy,s learn different words to Girls.
    Boy,s learn insults and swear words first in a new language.
    Girls learn sweet talk in a new language. Flattery produces results, how much income has been derived by one simple fraise " Hello ,you are welcome "

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    Quote Originally Posted by chitown
    I am talking more about mindset here. The ones I know that went to Chula are arrogant and full of themselves and they have no reason to be that way. They all act as if that Chula degree makes them something that should be worshiped and fawned over. You may know some that are different, but it has not been my experience.
    I can see what you're saying, it's linked to the patronage culture. Many companies will not even look at students who graducated from Chula. I worked at SCCC for a while, all the senior manages were Chula, they were all useless and all corrupt. The one decent person on the SMT was from Thammasat, and she had a hard time working against them... Chula is as close to an old's boy club as Thais have, and that network is abused, tis true. But, the top students from all over the country go there, so you have a mix. The rich Bkk sino-Thais whose parents own the big companies and go to uni in their new Merc/Porsche can be rather arrogant - they simply don't live in the real world and never will. Many of the professors have studied for 5+ years in the UK or States, so they're better.

    The problem is that Chula is part of the patronage system and is used politically by the PADites.

    Quote Originally Posted by chitown
    As far degrees? I am a firm believer that a degree does not equal success. I am unimpressed with pieces of paper and book smarts when you compare it to life experience and street smarts.
    That's a fair point. I tend to think the best start to life is a balance of education, life experiences and the environment you're brought up in.

  16. #241
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    Sorry Chi, but I don't agree. I've met many so-called educated Brits and Americans who are totally stupid in every aspect; never mind the average uneducated moron. I've met (or know well) many Thais who work at Chula who are great people, very smart and would be comfortable in conversation/work in any country in the world - they graducated from your top universities, they can think outside the box just fine.

    I'll add: the problem in Thailand is not the people, it's the culture - the patronage culture that the PADites want to reinforce, and the false history created in the 1930s to keep the feudal lords at the top of the patronage system. That's the problem.
    Although I'm sure bettyboo is right that there is some Thais who actually have worked hard to learn and have ended up with a good education, but likewise I'm sure bettyboo knows that quite a few Thais are "to big to fail" and that degrees are handed out and swindled like candy wrappers big time in the top Thai uni's.
    Same goes for the private uni's in the US that specialises in slapping a degree on high paying Thai foreign costumers (I refuse to call them students) these things have been documented often enough.

    And all this shit and their hopeless lack of basic knowledge and ability to compete internationally within their chosen fields, is exatly what part of the ongoing conflict is all about, the elite wants to keep status quo, where they via nepotism, connections and name can get the power positions, they want to hang on to the xenophobic Thai business/government system keeping "low-class" Thais, and foreigners in place and forcing foreign business to hire Thais to top spots or pay hefty bribes for the privilege to operate in Thailand.

    They know full well that if further democratic development is allowed to continue, and Thailand consequently conforms more and more to international practises - their time is over, both Thai and foreign company's, and state institutions will gradually start to employ and chose the best for the job regardless of origin or name, rather than the connected High So.

    They are all scared shit-less that their privileges is going to be taken away, and they are right too, because it is inevitable.

    Last edited by larvidchr; 13-01-2014 at 07:30 PM.

  17. #242
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    let's hope Y call the military to clean up all this shit on the ground,

  18. #243
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    Quote Originally Posted by larvidchr View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    Sorry Chi, but I don't agree. I've met many so-called educated Brits and Americans who are totally stupid in every aspect; never mind the average uneducated moron. I've met (or know well) many Thais who work at Chula who are great people, very smart and would be comfortable in conversation/work in any country in the world - they graducated from your top universities, they can think outside the box just fine.

    I'll add: the problem in Thailand is not the people, it's the culture - the patronage culture that the PADites want to reinforce, and the false history created in the 1930s to keep the feudal lords at the top of the patronage system. That's the problem.
    Although I'm sure bettyboo is right that there is some Thais who actually have worked hard to learn and have ended up with a good education, but likewise I'm sure bettyboo knows that quite a few Thais are "to big to fail" and that degrees are handed out and swindled like candy wrappers big time in the top Thai uni's.
    Same goes for the private uni's in the US that specialises in slapping a degree on high paying Thai foreign costumers (I refuse to call them students) these things have been documented often enough.

    And all this shit and their hopeless lack of basic knowledge and ability to compete internationally within their chosen fields, is exatly what part of the ongoing conflict is all about, the elite wants to keep status quo, where they via nepotism, connections and name can get the power positions, they want to hang on to the xenophobic Thai business/government system keeping "low-class" Thais, and foreigners in place and forcing foreign business to hire Thais to top spots or pay hefty bribes for the privilege to operate in Thailand.

    They know full well that if further democratic development is allowed to continue, and Thailand consequently conforms more and more to international practises - their time is over, both Thai and foreign company's, and state institutions will gradually start to employ and chose the best for the job regardless of origin or name, rather than the connected High So.

    They are all scared shit-less that their privileges is going to be taken away, and they are right too, because it is inevitable.

    "Are you to tell me that if my servants have the money to pay for their freedom that I will have to let them go? Who will do my chores?"

  19. #244
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    Quote Originally Posted by chitown View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    Many good teachers there too; most with PhDs from UK/US.
    You can take the Thai out of the village, but you can't take the village out of the Thai. They can sit in a class all they want, but if they do not grasp "outside the box" thinking they have failed and will continue to do so. It is the silly Thai mindset that makes those diplomas they get from the USA / Uk fit for mounting on a toilet paper dispenser.
    No! It is not used for toilet paper. It goes into this frame - and it must be black - it can't go anywhere else. You farang, you don't understand Thailand!
    My mind is not for rent to any God or Government, There's no hope for your discontent - the changes are permanent!

  20. #245
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    Quote Originally Posted by S Landreth View Post
    Now the catch,…….what that Pheu Thai Party tried to pull with that amnesty bill was wrong.
    True but the demonstrations are not about the amnesty except to the extent it affects Thaksin himself. The amnesty was viewed as a betrayal by many reds- it certainly is not limited Thaksin (although I'm sure Mark and Suthep are offended at the mere suggestion that they might need it)- and any effective opposition could have used the deeply cynical amnesty as a stick to beat the PT, gaining crossover votes and splintering the PT's support base. The Democrats- and the segment of the elite that back them- would prefer to beat down the electorate and win by coup, judicial or military, rather than try to win an election. They actually prefer main force, which is always the tack taken by elites when suppressing serf/peasant/slave rebellion. Don't give the underclass an inch, never throw them a bone- rather, take away whatever they had that made them think they could raise their heads in the first place. The Democrats are the marionettes of the least liberal/modern faction of Thailand's unelected de facto ruling elite. The moneyed backers of the PT and Thaksin probably don't have much more respect for the thoughts of the average Thai person, but by taking the trouble to actually win elections they make themselves at least partly beholden to the electorate. As to the PT's real allies among the uppermost Thai elite, what they seem to be itching for is a chance to smack the old guard down. . .

    And that is where the possibility for real fighting and bloodshed lies. The old guard are shitting their shorts, and not because they are afraid of a clever and crass Hakka boy. This isn't about democracy or elections or Thaksin per se. It is about something much more fundamental and, from the perspective of the elite, a much bigger prize than any elected office could ever bring (not that Thaksin wants anything more than to use his office to get at it, while seeking to realize his megalomaniac vision for Thailand- well, at least he has one that extends beyond securing greater status in the Thai uppercrust soap opera). Arguing about the political minutiae can be interesting, not to mention that it tends to reveal the true inclinations of the discussion participants, but the visible politics are tangential to the real issue, which appears at this point intractable and leading to a blow-up (as Dr.BOb suggests). I don't think it was supposed to turn out this way- I think for years the main players thought they could play for time and things would work themselves out. I would expect they are surprised to find themselves in this state. Now here we all (everyone with a stake in Thailand) are, and in the words of the old CCR song, "Who'll stop the rain?"
    Last edited by robuzo; 13-01-2014 at 10:28 PM.
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  21. #246
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    The Yellow Establishment Peril have planned this long ago - they were waiting for their moment to strike. It was long ago established that if the Thaksin side tried to change the Army/Sakdina Constitution the Establishment would bring them down.

    The only question remaining now is when and how they will achieve their aim - as they surely will. The next and most ominous question is when and how the majority of Thais will rip the heads off these people and stomp them into the ground.

    The Army will try to fight the majority to protect the Establishment like every Civil War, but eventually, it will be defeated and the elites will need to run away or face the dire consequences.

    Let's be clear - An uneducated elite is responsible for this, NOT an uneducated masses - it's human nature and human history repeating itself.

  22. #247
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    Reasonable article from Crisis International....

    Thailand: Conflict Alert

    Thailand: Conflict Alert - International Crisis Group

    Some randomly selected quotes...

    Competing Thai elites – with mass backing – disagree fundamentally about how political power should be acquired and exercised.
    Many perceive the Constitutional Court as biased, and the “independent agencies” – mandated by the 2006 coup makers’ 2007 constitution – as compromised because their members were appointed by committees dominated by judges and officials not themselves democratically accountable.
    The détente of the last few years masked fundamental, unresolved tensions. Today’s crisis has greater scope for serious, protracted violence than earlier episodes not least because there is neither evident middle ground nor protester appetite for compromise.
    and cutting to the chase...

    An election alone will also not resolve basic disagreements about how political power should be acquired and exercised, but the following should be borne in mind as a way out of the impasse is sought:
    • there is no obvious route to a peaceful resolution that does not respect the voice of a majority of voters. Imposition of an appointed government without consent of the electorate would invite violence;
    • the Democrat Party should recommit to the electoral process;
    • all should commit to pursuing political change non-violently and with due regard for others’ rights;
    • the military could best respond to the current crisis by an unequivocal commitment to the democratic process and express support for dialogue between the opposing camps; and
    • Thailand needs to confront how it is governed, including the decentralisation question and reform of key state institutions, but these issues should be discussed nationally – not presented as the agenda of one side – and take place in parallel to and beyond, not in place of, the constitutionally-required electoral process.

  23. #248
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    Quote Originally Posted by robuzo
    The amnesty was viewed as a betrayal by many reds- it certainly is not limited Thaksin
    Absolutely. I think all of these anti-amnesty folk of both colors have to at least grasp that if there is no amnesty, some of your own will be going to jail too- not just 'theirs'. But we know what store of faith the Thai put in their justice system.

  24. #249
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    It near Noon on Saturday, January 18th.

    Any news from you folks in Bangkok. Nothing on google yet.

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    Thai military caught between rock and hard place as unrest continues | South China Morning Post

    The one constant in Thai politics is the military. While the country's political parties mutate on a regular basis - the ruling Puea Thai party has changed its name three times since it was originally founded in 1998 by Thaksin Shinawatra - it is Thailand's army that has long held the reins of power.

    "In real countries, the military does everything to support the prime minister and the government. But that doesn't happen in Thailand," said Tida Tawornseth, the chairwoman of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, better known as the Thaksin-supporting "red shirts".
    "The government cannot control the military. It's like a jockey riding a horse he doesn't know. The horse can buck the jockey off at any time."
    Nor have the generals been shy about exercising their influence. There have been 18 coups in the 82 years since the end of absolute rule by the monarchy.

    It was the army who terminated Thaksin's reign as prime minister in 2006. After being overthrown in a coup, Thaksin fled into exile to avoid corruption charges in 2008.

    Two years later, protests against the unelected government that took power in Thaksin's place with the army's backing resulted in weeks of deadly riots convulsing the Thai capital. At least 90 people died and thousands were injured after soldiers opened fire on the protesters.
    Now, it is Thaksin's sister and current prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, who faces being toppled by the military.

    Staging a coup is the easy bit. The hard thing is the aftermath. The army knows the red shirts will come out and fight

    PROFESSOR PITCH PONGSAWAT, CHULALONGKORN UNIVERSITY
    With central Bangkok blockaded by anti-government protesters trying to force Yingluck and Puea Thai to step down and the army leaving the capital's security to the police, whispers of a coup abound almost daily. Those rumours reached fever pitch last weekend, with reports that tanks and heavy artillery were being moved to Bangkok.

    The protesters, a loose coalition of groups allied to the opposition Democrat Party and Thailand's traditional ruling elite, regard Yingluck as a mere proxy for Thaksin, who they despise for his alleged corruption and perceived disloyalty to the revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej.
    Yingluck has called a snap general election for February 2 in a bid to end the demonstrations. But the protesters do not want a poll. Instead, they want the government replaced by an unelected "people's council".

    With Thailand locked in a seemingly intractable political stalemate, many observers believe Yingluck's fate, and the future of Thailand's fragile democracy, now rests in the hands of the armed forces. And at first glance, the omens do not look promising for her.
    Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, a rabble-rousing veteran politician, is believed to be backed by two retired army chiefs, General Prawit Wongsuwan and General Anupong Paochinda, who played a key role in the 2006 coup that ousted Thaksin.
    The generals' support for the protesters has been prompted by the ongoing influence of Thaksin, and especially his reportedly close relationship with Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, the heir to the throne.

    "This is all about the succession to the throne," said one source with close connections to the army high command who wished to remain anonymous. "Factions inside the palace, the army and the Democrat Party are concerned about what will happen after the succession. They think that Thaksin will be in control of all of Thailand because of his links to the crown prince. The generals are frightened by that. It would mean the end of the traditional elite."

    Adding to Yingluck's apparent woes is the fact that the present army chief, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, is a protégé of Anupong.
    Both men served in the Queen's Guard, an elite unit that owes its allegiance directly to the monarchy. The Queen's Guard is part of an army division known as the "Eastern Tigers", whose former officers now dominate the army's senior ranks and include Prawit.
    Prayuth has issued a number of enigmatic statements about the military's possible role in resolving the political crisis. In December, he refused to rule out a coup, although last Saturday he backtracked from that statement.

    "I think Prawit and Anupong are pressuring Prayuth to intervene because of the connections they have with him," said the source. "But Prayuth isn't bowing to the pressure. If he had, there would already have been a coup."
    Prayuth's reluctance to mount a putsch stems in large part from the army's fear of a repeat of the violence of 2010, only on a far greater scale. Puea Thai commands huge support in the densely populated north and northeast of the country and the red shirts far outnumber the anti-government protesters.

    "The army is still haunted by what happened in 2010," said Pitch Pongsawat, a professor of political science at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "Staging a coup is the easy bit. The hard thing is the aftermath. The army knows the red shirts will come out and fight."
    Some militant red shirts are reported to be stockpiling weapons and preparing to go underground if Yingluck is ousted. The army is already engaged in one guerrilla war against ethnic Malay Muslim separatists in the country's south. Having to fight the red shirts as well is an unattractive proposition.

    "The army prides itself on its proximity to the people. They would find it mortifying to face even a symbolic backlash from large swathes of the Thai population," said Duncan McCargo, professor of Southeast Asian politics at Leeds University in the UK. "And most Thai soldiers are conscripts from the north and northeast, the heart of pro-Thaksin country."
    Some of their commanders are Puea Thai supporters as well. They are known as "watermelon" officers, because they wear green combat uniforms on the outside but are red inside.

    Yingluck has also been canny in her handling of the armed forces in an attempt to guarantee their support. Puea Thai has steadily increased the military's budget since taking power in 2011 - it rose by 5 per cent in 2013 alone - while no army personnel have been prosecuted for their roles in the suppression of the 2010 riots.

    In a further effort to assert her control over the military, Yingluck appointed herself defence minister last July. "It allows her to have some say in meetings with the military and to be involved in some decision-making," said Pitch. "She does have some power over the military."
    Perhaps the surest sign of Yingluck's confidence that there won't be a coup is the fact that she has been conducting government business at military bases since the protesters started laying siege to ministries.

    On Wednesday, Yingluck met officials of the Election Commission at the Royal Thai Air Force headquarters. "She wouldn't do that if she was scared of the military," said Pitch. "I think a coup is unlikely now. I don't think the army wants to get involved."

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