Head of economic recovery panel warns of collapse if borders not re-opened now

A businessman heading up an economic recovery panel is warning the government that unless Thailand’s borders are re-opened for the last quarter of the year, the country is headed for total economic collapse. The Bangkok Post reports that Pailin Chuchottaworn says the gradual easing of Covid restrictions in recent months is not enough, insisting the country must re-open to international tourists. Pailin says that, while Thailand has been successful at controlling and eventually suppressing the Covid-19 virus, it has been at great economic cost.


He is dismissive of the new Special Tourist Visa scheme, saying it does not go far enough, and he has also criticised the hoops foreigners must jump through to avail of the visa. He says that, despite the introduction of the STV, Thailand remains closed to most, warning that unless the country opens up now for what would normally be considered high season, the STV scheme may end up being dropped altogether. He points out that airlines need to plan their schedules in advance and, unless the government starts preparing for an immediate high-season re-opening, airlines will not have enough time to prepare flight schedules. He adds that re-opening once high season is over will be too late.


“Currently, tourism is an important priority. If the country does not re-open, it will be hard for GDP to grow because the country’s economy depends mainly on the tourism industry and exports.”

Meanwhile, Tourism and Sports Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn has previously stated that 1,200 long-stay tourists are expected to arrive in the Kingdom this month. The first groups were expected to arrive from China this Thursday, but there are reports of that being pushed back to later this month due to some additional ironing out of the STV scheme.


Phiphat says that, should all go well during the first 30 days of the scheme being in operation, the government will consider reducing the 14-day mandatory quarantine period to 7 days, although some medical experts continue to warn against this.

Head of economic recovery panel warns of collapse if borders not re-opened now | The Thaiger

He's not wrong. Since Thailand is a creditor nation, its not going to have an external collapse like 1997. But if the tourism sector completely collapses (I think its too late already) , there is going to be massive writedowns for the banks and this is going to reverberate through the whole economy.

Then there will come a wave of rampant crime in the tourist areas. This is most likely right around the corner. Its already too late.

Pailin was a senior businessman, he was CEO of PTT from 2011 to 2015 and more recently did two years as Deputy Transport Minister (says Wiki.) He is in a position to know what he is talking about.
He is using blunt language here and I am sure telling it like he really sees it: total economic collapse.
Which is not very comforting. I know some people choose to be 'positive' and that is fine but it doesn't change the underlying problem. All those people who have lost their city or factory or tourism jobs will slowly run out of money to service their bank loans and be unable to support their rural families whom we call subsistence farmers but many of whom subsist only with the help of remittances from those now jobless people.
The signs are in my village. People returned from factory jobs, now trying to sell food. Quite a few new 'Land for Sale' signs which I don't think are coincidental.
The future is very uncertain and not particularly rosy.

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Originally Posted by Backspin

Then there will come a wave of rampant crime in the tourist areas. This is most likely right around the corner. Its already too late.

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Says a guy who only comes here as a sex tourist and has spent less than 3 months of his life here. I think you should shut the fuck up.

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Originally Posted by aging one

Says a guy who only comes here as a sex tourist and has spent less than 3 months of his life here. I think you should shut the fuck up.

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:chitown:

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Originally Posted by Shutree

The future is very uncertain and not particularly rosy.

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Balance of Trade.

Thailand's trade surplus soared to USD 4.35 billion in August of 2020

5 year graph.

Attachment 58454
Numbers appear to indicate that the Green Shoots are maturing into Strong Fruit Bearing Trees. 87% of all time monthly high.


20 year graph.

Attachment 58455

More Asian than elsewhere it seems.

Thai exports.

Attachment 58456

Thai Imports.

Attachment 58457

Thailand Balance of Trade | 1991-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Calendar

"Exports, a key driver of growth, declined 8.2% in August from a year earlier after July's 11.9% drop.

The surplus was helped by record gold shipments of $2.8 billion in August, with the trend set to continue until year-end, BoT director Don Nakornthab told a briefing.

Overall exports, a key driver of growth, declined 8.2% in August from a year earlier after July's 11.9% drop."

Aug exports drop 8.2% y/y, trade surplus widens: BoT

I am no economist and there is much about the subject that I completely fail to understand. That said, balance of trade is not useful without some perspective. Remember the story earlier this year and repeated here about enormous gold exports skewing the numbers? The gold price went up, many individuals sold their stashes, saved for hard times. The volumes were so great that local gold shops couldn't finance it, they have been selling the gold on international markets. That really helps the trade surplus.
Another thing that makes a trade surplus look good is when manufacturing industries reduce their inventories, exporting what they have already made but importing less raw material as they reduce output, anticipating lower demand.
There are many statistics out there and maybe I am taking a half-empty glass view. Pailin talks of total economic collapse and to repeat the Bangkok Post quote:
"Overall exports, a key driver of growth, declined 8.2% in August from a year earlier after July's 11.9% drop."

If the Thai export has declined then only because the foreign orders (USA, EU) have declined. Otherwise, the manufacturing of dominantly consumer goods has not been badly influenced - since Thailand not much affected by Covid-19 as affected in other countries. In contrary, there is certain soar when the buyers have changed from China to Thailand.

There is a lot of manufacturing of parts sub-supplied to foreign companies (e.g. car industries in Japan) that reduced their orders.

And of course, if the tourist business has also been included in the export figures, than it has pulled the tally down.

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Originally Posted by Shutree

There are many statistics out there and maybe I am taking a half-empty glass view

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As you suggest there are many ways to "report" numbers.

However the graphs indicate that Thailand appears to be in pretty good shape compared to 5 year and 20 year "reports". Presuming of course that the reporting "criteria" has remained the same. :)

Do you "air quote" a lot when you talk?

Attachment 58487

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Originally Posted by OhOh

However the graphs indicate that Thailand appears to be in pretty good shape

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Unlike some most developed countries showing 2 digits drop this time...

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Originally Posted by cyrille

:chitown:

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This grumpy tugnut really has it out for me