The aftermath - Covid19

The health crisis is running it’s course, short of a meaningful treatment or vaccine there is little we can do about The first 4 months have passed and whilst all countries are at different stages we can be fairly confident that it’s not going to have a material effect on the number of Homo sapiens on the planet.

My concern is that I don’t think enough people are aware of the major and ongoing implications it is going to have on the economies of every country.

The amount of currency being printed and doled out by governments is truly staggering.
They call it stimulus packages, same as quantative easing basically, just a lot more of it.
Every $ printed and given out devalues the $ in your pocket.

Fractional reserve banking has to be the biggest con on the planet, yet like sheep we go along with it.

I firmly believe that this cure is totally over the top as a reaction to the pandemic. Real short term thinking.

We will go into a recession that will be difficult to recover from in 15 years.

Commerce and Industry will be decimated:

Retail was in the doldrums anyway, this is just another nail in the coffin.
Tourism - Will take years to recover
Airlines - most are dead in the water currently financially, all struggling to exist in the future without more bailouts.
Real estate - Hang on for the bargains, once the banks take their helpful hand away and the repos start, get ready for a 20% drop.
Auto sales and manufacturing- not hard to predict.
Hospitality, Hotels, coffee shops bars - some of the worst affected many will never open again.

Unemployment once it reaches record numbers will not retrace in the short-term - too many jobs permanently lost. Probably time for a universal wage just to keep the numbers looking clean.

I could go on but whatever way you cut it the picture is grim.

Initially I was not too concerned, however the length of time and the poor leadership we have seen from virtually all our politicians has definitely raised it in my thinking to a “fvck me what’s happening”

not so sure it will be as brutal as the last financial crisis, we have to think of this as a summer pause

that said, tourism is not going to recover soon, and now China is going to face a global ban for tourism and outsourcing industries

as for printing money, it's actually a good thing, debt is always better than equity to bootstrap an economy if the money is used efficiently

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Originally Posted by Dragonfly

as for printing money, it's actually a good thing, debt is always better than equity to bootstrap an economy if the money is used efficiently

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No printing currency out of thin air, backed by nothing can never be a good thing. Most fiat currencies run their course and collapse.
The $US is the worlds reserve currency based upon a belief that’s all. Keep printing and the upside down pyramid eventually has to fall.

The only thing missing currently is inflation, if it takes off in the next few years it will become a runaway train.

it doesn't work that way anymore, debt is fueling the pressure of the economy, the more the better. Everyone is high on growth.

still difficult to say tbh about total impact on the economy, could go either way, but there will be some major casualties, despite governments claiming otherwise

they failed in their mission, once more

No problem.
All can be fixed post-pandemic.

Just prop up the usual illusion support.
Nothing was real before, might we expect anything less.

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Originally Posted by Iceman123

Initially I was not too concerned

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Nor, was or am I.

If you/I/we see something wrong, well let's go ahead and fix it. However, in this situation, there is nothing I can possibly do to fix the problem - be it real or perceived.


What action(s) can an individual person take today to make their lot-in-life tomorrow better?

We really are in a sit and wait mode. For me, I draw a total blank. If queried, I would not know how to advise an individual on what steps they can or should take to prepare for the future - other than the standard save as much money as you can.


How would you advise friends, family or acquaintances concerning preparatory steps for the unknown future?

well, we learn something from the last crisis, that giving out money to banks and corporations for bailout didn't help the recovery, so supply side economics is basically dead at this point

demande side economics aka Keynesians are the only solution at this stage,

Trump going in that direction, and they are talking about universal income, that's also a positive direction, corporations have been getting away with too much for the last 30 years, time to give back control to the workers :)

Attachment 50176

No advice is suitable for everyone, however as an asset to own, I have started buying gold. Many people would disagree and argue against it.
That’s cool. I have done enough research and believe that Gold held as a physical asset will prove to be a wise decision. It will rise should we encounter inflation or a stock market downturn/crash. Both seem highly plausible. Should a “reset” of fiat come around Gold is your answer.

I also bought a couple of Gold stocks that were undervalued recently, they usually move up as the market retraces.

Gold (don’t like silver buy/sell spread is just stupid) has been the money of choice for thousands of years.

The printing presses went into overtime.

And we were gonna have hyperinflation, the stock market was gonna collapse, the $US was gonna crash due to the incompetent leadership of the USA.
But hyperinflation never happened, the stock market started going back up and the $US is stronger than ever.


Let's face facts, economists have absolutely no forking idea what is happening, what is gonna happen. Best we can do is buckle up and see where this ride takes us.

^
Do you have a Plan A?

Currently on Plan K.

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Originally Posted by Plan B

Let's face facts, economists have absolutely no forking idea what is happening, what is gonna happen. Best we can do is buckle up and see where this ride takes us.

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it's not an exact science, a mix of financial cahos and human behaviors

My tuppence worth.

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Originally Posted by Iceman123

Retail was in the doldrums anyway, this is just another nail in the coffin.

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A year or two and we'll be back to spending at pre-Covid levels.

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Originally Posted by Iceman123

Tourism - Will take years to recover

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Three years and it will be back to normal levels, IMHO.

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Originally Posted by Iceman123

Real estate - Hang on for the bargains, once the banks take their helpful hand away and the repos start, get ready for a 20% drop.

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Depends on the country, I reckon. For the UK as a whole, I see a small blip - say 2-3%, certainly no more than 5%, and IMO it needs that and more.

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Originally Posted by Iceman123

Auto sales and manufacturing- not hard to predict.

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I think auto manufacturers will feel a fairly big hit in their finances but most will survive.

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Originally Posted by Iceman123

Hospitality, Hotels, coffee shops bars - some of the worst affected many will never open again.

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Yes. I think smaller businesses will feel the pinch and some will never open again.

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Originally Posted by Iceman123

Unemployment once it reaches record numbers will not retrace in the short-term - too many jobs permanently lost. Probably time for a universal wage just to keep the numbers looking clean.

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Again, I think it wil depend on the specific country but for the UK, I predict that in 3 years unemployment will be around the 5% level.

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Originally Posted by Iceman123

I could go on but whatever way you cut it the picture is grim.

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There will be some short term pain and some damage to economies but I don't see the future as grim.

The fiat banking system has served the capitalist economy well for over 500 plus years but inevitably asset bubbles will occur when sentiment overrides sense and investment becomes a function of the credit supply. The 2008 crash was a shock to the system that was never properly resolved in that the bad debt poison was not bled out of the system but was masked, like a steroid fix, by enormous quantities of QE which eased the credit function at the cost of socialising the trillions of $ debt leading to the zero interest rate environment that anchored inflation at a level facilitating austerity programmes and reducing wages for the working classes. We were sort of easing out of that bind after a decade but Brexit and COVID has screwed the UK for sure.

In the UK it is now certain that the inevitable Brexit stagflation will be exacerbated by the COVID shock which will destroy any chance of reducing the current account deficit and it is now a fact of life that an already devalued £ will be reduced further. Unemployment is the new reality as the debt fuelled consumer boom gives way to recession and lower disposable incomes but taxation increases will eat further at the earnings base creating more downward pressure on spending that in turn reduces those tax revenues. State borrowings will go through the roof with an early estimate of £300 billions by next year alone on the cards.

It's shaping up to be a rather nice re-hash of the late 1970s.

But life will go on Sausages, you haven't got many years left to revel in others misery so make the most of it...if only you'd made better choices ....har har har

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Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

The fiat banking system has served the capitalist economy well for over 500 plus year

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Just plain wrong - up until 1933 $ had a fixed value against gold. In subsequent years it used leverage against gold. In 1971 Nixon abolished the gold standard and the FIAT system replaced any last vestiges of commodity based curriencies.

the problem with Gold is that it's correlated with all other asset classes, simply because it's been easier to buy it, so will suffer from the same fluctuations as other liquid assets

there has been some nice Inflation Protected Bonds doing nicely since January, some are up 10%, so it could be a nice hedge during market turmoils

buying nice Gold coins could be a nice hobby though, or Silver coins

personally I prefer Silver, I can't stand the ugly color of Gold

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Originally Posted by Dragonfly

buying nice Gold coins could be a nice hobby though, or Silver coins

personally I prefer Silver, I can't stand the ugly color of Gold

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Am I correct in thinking that your income is derived from advising people on financial investments?

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Originally Posted by Iceman123

Retail was in the doldrums anyway, this is just another nail in the coffin.
Tourism - Will take years to recover
Airlines - most are dead in the water currently financially, all struggling to exist in the future without more bailouts.
Real estate - Hang on for the bargains, once the banks take their helpful hand away and the repos start, get ready for a 20% drop.
Auto sales and manufacturing- not hard to predict.
Hospitality, Hotels, coffee shops bars - some of the worst affected many will never open again.

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Yup, retail will continue to go down . . . now that people were forced to buy online the myth of it being difficult is gone.

Tourism - internal tourism in western countries will take up much of the slack . . . and then it'll be a few months before people start going on overseas hols . . . if they have a job and if specials are tasty enough

Airlines . . . most are government-supported and will be fine

Real Estate is going to hurt people, especially come September when many government support programs end . . . a good time to buy and rent out . . . if you have the finances and a job, of course. Yup - 20% sounds about right

Auto . . . dolldrums

Hospitality . . . some have closed for good, but the ones that haven't will probably increase their earnings - less competition.


What worries me the most is high unemployment and increased taxes and council rates. Unemployment is harsh, both financially and mentally - the drain on state coffers will be huge (in normal countries that have a sound unemployment program) and this money needs to come back in, like the billions spent on propping up business etc... these last few weeks/months.

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Originally Posted by Iceman123

Just plain wrong - up until 1933 $ had a fixed value against gold. In subsequent years it used leverage against gold. In 1971 Nixon abolished the gold standard and the FIAT system replaced any last vestiges of commodity based curriencies.

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What on earth are you blethering on about, you stupid lout.

The current system hasn't fucking changed in principle since the 12th - 14th C when the merchant traders and then banks of Tuscany issued bonds that promised a profit in return for an investment.

Wittering on about the Gold Standard is as germane to the thread as discussing your lavatorial habits, you oaf..

^
You are one again exposing yourself as a know nothing simpleton.
Economics is not your forte.
Suggest you google a bit more and come back with a logical argument.
Fractional reserve banking is obviously lost on you.
Basic Keynesian or monetarist theories I am willing to debate with you after that we can delve a bit deeper.

In the meantime take solace in the fact that an economic downturn will not materially affect you.
when you’ve got f... all you have f... all to lose.

Attachment 50199Attachment 50198...a little shopping before the Klan meeting...

Adjusting lifestyles and delusions for the looming collapse will be amusing to observe.

^You're not worried about America scaling back phsyciatic disability payments?