Mideast Violence Darkens
Bush's Policy Successes
By YOCHI J. DREAZEN
July 14, 2006
ROSTOCK, Germany -- The surge in Mideast violence means conditions are deteriorating in the very places -- Israel, Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Afghanistan -- that President Bush had been able to point to as bright spots for his policies.
In the short term, the escalating hostilities are overshadowing Mr. Bush's long-planned trip to Germany and to the weekend's summit of industrialized nations in Russia. But the deeper problem is that it could leave him few success stories in an area that has become a focus of his presidency.
With Iraq plagued by relentless violence, the White House has cited Israel, Lebanon and Afghanistan as places where the administration's foreign policy had paid off. Though Israel's pullout from the Gaza Strip was unilateral, it allowed Mr. Bush to claim progress toward his goal of a two-state solution there. Afghanistan, meanwhile, appeared to be in far better shape than Iraq: a relatively violence-free country with a popular leader and a populace grateful for the presence of U.S. and other troops.
Now, all three countries appear to be sliding toward chaos. Cross-border attacks this week by Palestinian and Lebanese militants and by Israel so far have left more than 100 dead and threaten to ignite a broader conflict. The violence was sparked by armed attacks carried out by Islamist groups that have participated in recent elections -- in the case of Hamas, winning control of the quasi-independent Palestinian Authority.
That is raising questions about the central thrust of the Bush administration's Mideast policy: the belief that spreading democracy in the Arab world will help moderate tensions and clear the way for a resumption of negotiations to end decades of Arab-Israeli violence.
In Afghanistan, meanwhile, President Hamid Karzai's government is increasingly isolated in Kabul, while an aggressive Taliban offensive has claimed more U.S. soldiers' lives and the population is turning against Americans.
The U.S. bind was on display yesterday during Mr. Bush's appearance with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the town of Stralsund. In remarks to reporters, the president sought to balance steadfast support for Israel's right to defend itself with stern admonitions to avoid further weakening or toppling the democratically elected government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora.
"Israel has a right to defend herself. Every nation must defend herself against terrorist attacks and the killing of innocent life," Mr. Bush said. "Whatever Israel does, though, should not weaken the Siniora government in Lebanon. We're concerned about the fragile democracy in Lebanon."
Mr. Bush came to Germany to underscore a renewed strength of the U.S.-German relationship, which had deteriorated under Ms. Merkel's predecessor, Gerhard Schröder. The relationship between the two leaders appeared to be on fairly solid footing, with both stressing the need for a unified diplomatic push to persuade Iran to open its nuclear program to scrutiny. Ms. Merkel said that if the Iranians "think they can prevaricate in the hope of the international community being split, then this proves them wrong." Mr. Bush said his meeting with the German leader demonstrated that the Iranians "can't wait us out and can't hope to split a coalition."
The two leaders also appeared to see eye to eye on the new round of Mideast violence, offering restrained support for the Israeli offensive while placing most of the responsibility on Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group that triggered the violence with a bold cross-border raid into Israel, and Syria, which houses top officials of both Hezbollah and Hamas.
Ms. Merkel said the violence began with Hezbollah's kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers on Tuesday, stressing that "one needs to be very careful to make a clear distinction between the root causes and the consequences of something."
Ms. Merkel also said Hezbollah's actions are "not acceptable," and refused to denounce the scale or scope of Israel's counterstrikes. That put her outside the emerging European consensus, where countries like Russia and France have condemned the Israeli response as disproportionate.
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