Abhisit diminishes his chances yet again
Abhisit Wastes Another Chance for Thailand Reconciliation
Fabio Scarpello | Bio | 16 Jun 2010
World Politics Review
DENPASAR, Indonesia -- Six weeks after violent standoffs between
Thailand's Red Shirt opposition and government forces left 89 people
dead and roughly 2,000 wounded, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva seems
to have learned little from the recent past and is wasting another
chance to work toward a stable reconciliation in the crisis-plagued
country.
The last such opportunity arose in April 2009, after the Red Shirts'
protests turned violent for the first time. The subsequent crackdown
resulted in 25 people killed, including five soldiers, and more than
800 others wounded. Then, too, Abhisit promised to resolve animosity
between rival groups and foster reconciliation within six to eight
months to pave the way for a snap election. Instead he ended up
antagonizing the opposition by ignoring the recommendations of a
committee he established on political and constitutional reforms.
Those proposals would reinstall the system that had favored the rise
of former Premier Thaksin Shinawatra's party, the Thai Rak Thai.
Abhisit quickly changed course, calling for the establishment of a new
charter-drafting assembly and a referendum, while also taking a harder
stance on the Red Shirts. As a result, instead of resolving its
internal divisions, the country polarized even further, with the Red
Shirts' gathering strength leading to this year's clashes.
Now, Abhisit is again promising reconciliation and reform, but there
are many indications that he is simply using the post-crisis period to
consolidate his power base.
Abhisit has used his weekly televised program to emphasize that his
five-point reconciliation program is well under way and that it will
be completed by the end of the year. The plan was announced in early
May as a way out of the stalemate that had seen demonstrations in the
capital for almost two months, but was subsequently shelved when the
Red Shirts rejected it. In addition to pledging an independent
committee to investigate recent incidents of violence, the plan called
for an independent watchdog agency to oversee the media as well as
constitutional amendments to assure fairer treatment of all political
parties. It was presented along with the promise that new
parliamentary elections would be held by November.
Abhisit has since withdrawn the early election offer. As for the
panels that he has established to investigate the deaths of
demonstrators during the standoff and formulate constitutional
amendments, the decision to put them in the hands of pro-government
figures critical of the Red Shirts shattered their credibility.
Moreover, Abhisit's reconciliation roadmap suffers from a fatal
shortcoming. It fails to clearly address what is largely seen as the
core problem of the country: the centralized power structure, by which
Bangkokians, most of them ethnic Chinese, control the country's
political and economic structure.
Michael Nelson, a visiting scholar at Chulalongkorn University, noted
that the recent protests also had an ethnic element. "Bangkok is an
essentially a Chinese city," he said, "while the protesters consider
themselves 'real' Thais."
It is thus not a surprise that the roadmap has failed to convince a
majority of Thais, with 66.3 percent of respondents saying it would
fail, according to a recent survey conducted by the Abac Poll.
Aside from the roadmap's chances for success, Abhisit is also seen by
many as having been too deeply involved in the recent violence.
According to several commentators, his best contribution to the
country would be to step down and leave the difficult job of putting
the "Land of Smiles" back together to a less-compromised figure.
Instead, the ever-smiling, Western-educated leader of the Thai
Democrats seems unperturbed -- and bent on taking Thailand even
further toward authoritarianism. Several Thailand-based sources,
including one diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity, expressed
fears that the country is sliding fast toward a military regime.
Paul Chambers, a professor at Heidelberg University, Germany, and
Payap University, Thailand, who is an expert on the Thai military's
linkages to politics, said that "Abhisit is not really serious about
reconciliation," and called him "a hostage of the right-wing section
of society."
In the Thai political context, the right wing refers to those close to
the crown, and includes the military, the bureaucratic apparatus and
the middle-class, represented lately by the yellow-shirted People's
Alliance for Democracy.
Abhisit's entanglement with the military has reached such a level that
it is no longer clear who, in fact, leads the country. The military's
support for Abhisit's rise to power in 2008 led to an increased role
for the military in the government, as well as to a windfall in terms
of defense spending.
The military has also increased its role under cover of the recent
crackdown on the Red Shirts. In particular, the Center for the
Resolution of Emergency Situations (CRES), the military-controlled
body established to counter the Red Shirts, has assumed a central
position in the country's politics.
The blurring of the civilian-military divide has been accompanied by
the crushing of any dissent. Thailand's mainstream media have toed the
government line, while the independent media, or any media associated
with the Red Shirts, has been shut down or intimidated. Foreign
journalists have been castigated for reports deemed "pro-Red Shirt" by
the Thai government, and some have been summoned by CRES. Currently,
Thai censorship is only circumvented by a handful of bloggers, who are
doing a good job of presenting the opposition's side of the story.
Red Shirt supporters, whether real or perceived, are being arrested on
a daily basis on charges of terrorism and for instigating violence
under the Emergency Decree, which Abhisit extended indefinitely on
June 6.
On June 9, the Thai police released a list of the names, alleged
crimes and places of detention of those being held. According to the
online news site, Prachatai, the list includes 417 people. There are
also allegations of death squads sent loose to liquidate Red Shirts.
Such charges, though unconfirmed, reflect the mood taking hold.
In the meantime, the danger remains that Bangkok's recently restored
calm is only the prelude to another gathering storm.
Fabio Scarpello is the Southeast Asia correspondent for the Italian
news agency Adnkronos International. He is based in Denpasar,
Indonesia.
Photo: Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva (World Economic Forum
