So What Now For The Reds And Thaksin?

So, at 11am this morning the leaders of the red shirts told the protesters at Government House to pack up and go home, they asked the army to move back and give them a clear exit to dispurse.

So what now for the reds, and what now for Thaksin? Its hard to believe that if these protesters retreat, move off the streets and go home that Thaksin and his key men will be able to mobilise such a mob again in the near future.

Is this the end of the red shirts as any sort of real threat to the government?

For sure over the next few days there will be a series of raids on properties over the bangkok area and country wide, resulting in the arrests of key players and organisers within the movement.

Is Bangkok moving back toward normality, or are the next week or so going to be the quiet before the storm?

Any thoughts?

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Originally Posted by English Noodles

Any thoughts?

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Just a question: we all know about Thailand's famously strict lese majeste laws. Does it have similarly strict laws regarding treason? What, hypothetically, could you be charged with if, say, you called from abroad for the overthrow of the government and encouraged the army to help out with this?

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Thaksin: Overthrow Thai government

Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has called for the overthrow of the government after authorities imposed a state of emergency in Bangkok amid widespread protests.

His call came after armed soldiers were deployed across the Thai capital on Sunday, a day after "Red Shirt" movement anti-government protests forced the cancellation of a summit of Asian leaders in the beach resort of Pattaya.

He said: "The troops who have already come out can come and join the Red Shirts to help us to get democracy for the people.

"This is a golden minute. We will make history and there will be no more coups in Thailand. We have to help achieve democracy for all of us."

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Al Jazeera English - Asia-Pacific - Thaksin: Overthrow Thai government

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Originally Posted by benbaaa

Does it have similarly strict laws regarding treason? What, hypothetically, could you be charged with if, say, you called from abroad for the overthrow of the government and encouraged the army to help out with this?

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one would think so....

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Originally Posted by benbaaa

"This is a golden minute. We will make history and there will be no more coups in Thailand. We have to help achieve democracy for all of us."

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:rofl:

Yes the deaths were the hiatus and I feel the reds lost a lot of tolerance if not sympathy from true democrats everywhere Thaksins lower money and dwindling public support in the capital will lead to alull However none of this removes the fundamental injustices and inequalities of rural Thai life. Corruption unexamined by free press independent courts and accountibility will leave resentments.The Thai people have been poorly served. I doubt Thaksin will retire to tend Buffaloes and weave makrame potentially just another millionaire ex leader in exile trying to stir the pot. His appeal to the respected institution seem to fall on deaf ears. The irony is Marky disgraced in eyes of Asean colleagues may be seen as the net winner.The real loser of course is the Thai economy. The peasants storm troopers have ben beaten back into the lamp until the next genie lures them out.Change wil wait til the sucession IMHO. A sfe and peaceful Songkran to you all and apologies for mypissed posts the last few days.Trying to deal with whiplash without painkillers!

The problem is that it will take a revolution to bring about real change.

And nobody in Thailand has the guts for revolution. So they play act -- like we did in primary school.

And at the end of recess, when the bell rings they all go back to being good pupils and doing what the teacher says and dreaming about how to capture the flag tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by English Noodles

Is this the end of the red shirts as any sort of real threat to the government?

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Round one. Red shirts will go home, lick their wounds, regroup and return.

This will continue until all, even Abhisit supporters, in Thailand are fed up and demand new elections are held.

A real constitution, one with teeth and that lasts for more than a few months, might be useful too. Seems some influentials aren't real keen to put laws down in writing.

If anything is going to change then the Royal Thai Police is the first that will have to go and be immediately followed by all the high commanding generals of the army to be replaced by honest men and a police force that is a lot of smaller local state and provincial ones that are small enough to be controlled by the people that pay their wages.
And none of that is going to happen nor any of the fore mentioned, so Thailand will always be a third world country.

Nothing will happen until Elvis leaves the building.

A real pity. Was hoping to see a real change occur & the old guard dispatched.

Not quite sure what happened to turn the tide so quickly.

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Originally Posted by watterinja

Not quite sure what happened to turn the tide so quickly.

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The army came out on side of the government.

^ With live ammunition...

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Originally Posted by Texpat

A real constitution, one with teeth and that lasts for more than a few months, might be useful too. Seems some influentials aren't real keen to put laws down in writing.

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Yes, particularly as it relates to powers of office. All constitutions are subject to interpretation so the effectiveness of a constitution requires an independent judiciary to rule on cases where constitutionality are in question. In some cases a judicial ruling will result in a constitutional amendment but mostly the ruling sets a precedent for establishment of the law.

Thailand has no such judiciary. Until they do, interpretation will be done ad hoc by the existing powers that be.

^ Makes sense but as in all non revolutionary staes the problem is who appoints monitors and can remove the judiciary. Qus custodiet ipsos custodes is a problem as old as civic society. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? is a Latin phrase from the Roman poet Juvenal, which literally translates to "Who will guard the guards themselves?", and is variously translated in colloquial English as "Who watches the watchmen?", "Who watches the watchers?", "Who will guard the guards?", "Who shall watch the watchers?", "Who polices the police?" or other similar translations. My feeling it'll be muddle as usual and Abisit will last a while until some more usefulpuppet apears

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Originally Posted by English Noodles

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Originally Posted by watterinja

Not quite sure what happened to turn the tide so quickly.

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The army came out on side of the government.

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Actually no , the international media attention became to great otherwise this would still be going on.

As expected, the reds have not forced the Democrats to step down. Nonetheless, they have made a nonsense of Aphisits previous comments that Thailand has
' returned to normal ' . These last few days will probably be the high water mark of the protests for now but its not all over yet. Once the protesters have returned home the govournment will likely start cracking down on their leaders and sentance a few of the small fish they have in custody to jail terms as a deterant to others in future. It will also be plain to everybody that double standards have been applied by the military in as much as they gave the yellows a carte blanch to do as they pleased.

The reds fvcked up big style by exposing themselves as thugs.

Unfair as it may seem (as I believe the vast majority of the reds were well behaved citizens with a genuine agenda) the few thugs amongst them ruined whatever gains they had made.

So, is it all over, then?

Finished just in time for them to get home for some Songkran fun.

After the citizens of Bangkok turned on them, many might not fancy coming back in a red shirt capacity - the thugs really made the red shirt movement lose a lot of understanding from the non-colour wearing people. Even those red shirts who were actually in the movement for idealogical reasons have now probably become ashamed to be associated with such hooligans.

Of course, some might be heading back to the jungles to practice more guerilla tactics and sit around the camp fire dreaming of the revolution and who will be first against the wall. New classes will possibly include what NOT to do - like threatening to blow up apartments and smashing up innocent people's cars, foodcarts and other forms of livelihood.

Will they up the war in terms of 'distance tactics' like planting car & truck bombs, triggered by mobile telephones?

Would infrastructure like the Skytrain, underground, railways etc become terror targets?

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Originally Posted by watterinja

Would infrastructure like the Skytrain, underground, railways etc become terror targets?

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They would not get very far doing that, they would just be seen as communist terrorists and hated by the whole nation.

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Originally Posted by Ghandi

Actually no , the international media attention became to great otherwise this would still be going on.

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Actually yes, the whole movement was hinged on what the responce of the army would be when asked to take control, would they take the governments orders or would they hold back like they did last year.

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Originally Posted by watterinja

Will they up the war in terms of 'distance tactics' like planting car & truck bombs, triggered by mobile telephones?

Would infrastructure like the Skytrain, underground, railways etc become terror targets?

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No training in making real explosives. Pin pong bombs and petrol bombs is about the extent of their knowledge.

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Originally Posted by English Noodles

So, at 11am this morning the leaders of the red shirts told the protesters at Government House to pack up and go home, they asked the army to move back and give them a clear exit to dispurse.

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Yup.

They got paid 1,000 Baht to go down to Bangers and start sh$t. Now, they can go home. Probably gonna be bused out, given lunch at a deli on the side of the road.

Now that's dedication.

:tosser1:

Go back to yo' farm and with yo' pigs and chickens, boyz and girlz.

:kma:

interesting to see the reds next move or is it taksins if still alive ?

i