The official media in China mostly fail to report accurately or at all on some of the biggest issues in the world's second largest economy. What happens in China affects other economies globally, not only the 'butterfly effect', you can see it directly for example in the current US-China trade talks.
Probably the biggest question at the moment is: Who is in charge?
Every month, China's 24 person politburo has a meeting and that is almost always reported in state media. In May, there were no reports and there is no evidence that a meeting happened, which is extremely unusual. What seems to have happened is that on or about May 15th there was a meeting of the politburo standing committee, a small group of about 7 of the most senior figures. Rumour has it that the standing committee invited some extra attendees including Hu Jintao, who most people remember being dragged offstage behind Xi at the 20th National Congress in 2022. Hu has been out of the public eye since then. So what was going on? Some sources have described it as a 'struggle meeting' where Xi Jinping was challenged over his leadership, particularly over the economy and international relations.
A few days later, Xi went on an inspection tour in Henan, This was mostly notable for who was not there, Cai Qi, the man who is effectively Xi's chief of staff and who always goes everywhere with him. After Henan, Xi was not seen for a couple of weeks, which is exceptional. People noted that China Daily cut their usual Xi thought bulletins.
Xi was invisible until he popped up to meet Lukashenko. Most unusually their meeting was in the Zhongnanhai compound where the most senior leaders live. Pictures showed a significant number of young men in dark suits about the place, leading to speculation that Xi was under house arrest.
Meanwhile, there have been a few unexplained arrests and at least one surprise death, all suggesting that the leadership situation is in flux.
The man tipped as future leader is Wang Yang. He was in the top levels of government until he officially retired. He is described as 'liberal' within the context of Chinese government, so his appointment would signal a huge change. However, Wang isn't leaping at the opportunity and is said to have a number of preconditions.
How long this will take to play out is anybody's guess. My guess is that it will be sooner rather than later. China wants these trade talks to move forward.
