Thailand’s imports from China hit record high amid trade uncertainty and 90-day tarif
Thailand’s trade deficit with China has surged to a historic high, with imports soaring during the first four months of 2025 as businesses rush to secure raw materials amid global trade uncertainties, particularly ahead of potential U.S. tariff changes.
According to the Ministry of Commerce’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), Thailand recorded a $19.23 billion trade deficit with China from January to April 2025. Imports from China totaled $31.56 billion, while exports amounted to $12.33 billion.
In April 2025 alone, Thailand’s imports from China hit a monthly record of $8.82 billion, while exports to China reached $3.55 billion, a 3.2% increase year-on-year. The resulting monthly trade deficit stood at $5.27 billion.
Top Imports: Machinery and Electronics Surge
Among the top five import categories in April:
Electrical machinery and parts: $1.67 billion (+110.6%)
General machinery and components: $848.2 million (+37.8%)
Home appliances: $658.6 million (+21.6%)
Computers and related parts: $506.8 million (+35.1%)
Chemicals: $496.8 million (-11%)
The surge in imports, particularly of machinery and electronics, reflects businesses stockpiling raw materials and components in anticipation of potential global trade disruptions.
Businesses React to U.S. Tariff Uncertainty
Wisit Limluecha, Vice Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, noted that the spike in imports may be tied to export-oriented manufacturers trying to secure inputs amid concerns over U.S. tariff policy.
With the U.S. recently imposing global tariffs and initiating a 90-day negotiation window, many countries, including Thailand, are rushing to import raw materials to beat potential cost increases. This trend is expected to continue through May 2025.
On the export side, Thailand’s shipments to China have been impacted by a drop in fruit exports, attributed to weather-related declines in crop yields.
Looking ahead, the second half of 2025 will be crucial, as the U.S. finalizes its tariff structure. The U.S. is Thailand’s largest export market, accounting for 19% of total exports, and any uneven tariff policy could affect Thailand’s competitiveness and disrupt supply chains.
Chronic Trade Imbalance with China
Amonthep Chawla, Executive Vice President and Head of Research at CIMB Thai Bank, cautioned against overly optimistic interpretations of April’s strong export growth (10% year-on-year). He noted that much of the increase is due to a low base effect and frontloading of orders by trading partners such as the U.S.
“Thailand’s persistent trade deficit with China, particularly in electronics and home appliances, remains a structural weakness,” he said. He added that the rise in exports has not translated into corresponding increases in domestic industrial production or value creation, which could hamper sustainable economic growth.
Some of Thailand’s exports, he noted, are merely pass-through shipments with no local value addition — reflecting weak links between export activity and the domestic agricultural or industrial sectors.
As such, Amonthep projects Thailand’s total exports for 2025 will grow by only 2–3%, despite double-digit gains in the first four months. He cited a high comparison base in the latter half of 2024 and slowing global economic momentum as limiting factors.
Another growing concern is the rapid appreciation of the Thai baht in late Q2, which could hurt exporters by making Thai goods more expensive on the global market. This exchange rate risk, coupled with slowing purchase orders, could further challenge Thailand’s export sector in the months ahead.
EIC Flags China Trade Deficit as Major Concern
Thitima Chucherd, Director of Economic and Financial Market Research at the Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), Siam Commercial Bank, warned that Thailand’s persistent trade deficit with China is worrying. She noted that if China successfully concludes trade negotiations with the U.S., any indirect benefit to Thailand may diminish.
In April, China’s exports to the U.S. contracted, but its exports to other markets surged — reflecting China's rapid market diversification strategy.
Looking ahead, Thailand’s export outlook for the remainder of 2025—especially the second half—faces significant downside risk. Although April’s 10% export growth exceeded expectations, it largely reflects a temporary acceleration during the U.S.’s 90-day tariff pause. A slowdown is expected to follow.
“It all depends on how well Thailand can negotiate with the U.S.,” Thitima said. “We will begin to see the real impact from July onward, once the tariff freeze ends. This surge in imports during the first four months was just the calm before the storm.”
Previously, EIC forecasted Thai exports to shrink 0.4% in 2025, assuming an average 23% U.S. tariff (down from an initial 36% due to negotiations). However, there is now a greater likelihood of a larger contraction if the U.S. imposes steeper or uneven tariffs.
Imports Top $100 Billion in Four Months
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, Director-General of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), stated that Thailand’s April exports grew by 10.2%, largely driven by industrial products, which rose by 16.6%, marking 13 consecutive months of growth.
Key export performers included computers and components, electronic circuits, jewelry (excluding gold), and electrical control panels. However, declines were recorded in automobiles and parts, machinery, telecommunication equipment, steel products, and semiconductors.
From January to April, industrial exports grew by 18.7%.
Agricultural Exports Decline 19.6%
Agricultural and agro-industrial exports contracted by 8.4%. Agricultural products alone plunged 19.6%, continuing a four-month downward trend. Agro-industrial goods, however, rebounded by 9.1% after a prior slump.
Notable growth came from rubber, poultry (fresh, frozen, processed), sugar, pet food, wheat-based products, cooking oils, and processed fruits.
Declines were observed in fresh and frozen fruits, rice, canned seafood, and cassava products. Overall, agricultural exports contracted 2.3% year-on-year in the first four months.
U.S. Market Booms 23.8%
Most major export markets posted sustained growth, supported by accelerated shipments amid U.S. tariff uncertainty. Exports to the U.S. jumped 23.8% in April following the extension of the tariff freeze to July 9, 2025.
Exports to the U.S. were valued at $5.04 billion, with imports at $1.78 billion, giving Thailand a trade surplus of $3.26 billion. Cumulatively, from January to April, Thailand exported $20.85 billion to the U.S. and imported $6.85 billion, yielding a surplus of nearly $14 billion.
Other key markets also expanded:
Japan: +5.5%
EU (27 countries): +6.1%
ASEAN (5 countries): +7.8%
CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam): +25.2%
Outlook for Second Half Remains Risky
Poonpong noted that Q2 exports are expected to maintain momentum, but it remains uncertain whether growth will stay in double digits, depending largely on the outcome of U.S. tariff negotiations. If Thailand receives equal tariff treatment, the impact could be mitigated.
He added that any revision to the 2–3% full-year export target will be considered only after evaluating Q2 performance and consulting with the private sector.
Still, the second half of 2025 poses risk, particularly if the U.S. decides to impose additional tariffs after the 90-day grace period. The Ministry of Commerce has been holding regular meetings with stakeholders to prepare negotiation strategies and relief measures for affected businesses.
Commerce Minister Confident in 90-Day Tariff Talks
Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan expressed confidence that Thailand’s trade negotiations with the U.S. are progressing well and will conclude within the 90-day timeframe. He affirmed that current export policies are on the right track, and that Thailand is well-positioned for sustainable long-term growth.
“The continuous export growth reflects the strength of the Thai economy,” said Pichai. “Despite concerns about U.S. tariffs, Thai exports in April still rose by 10.2%. Many had predicted a sharp drop, but the numbers proved otherwise—especially in the U.S. market, where exports grew 23.8% and have now expanded for 19 consecutive months.”
He also highlighted growth in other key markets:
ASEAN: +7.8% (2 months in a row)
South Asia: +8.7% (7 months)
EU: +6.1% (11 months)
Japan: +5.5% (2 months)
China: +3.2% (7 months)
EU-Thai FTA Talks Accelerate
The Ministry of Commerce is working to finalize an EU-Thailand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) by the end of 2025. Negotiations will involve meetings with European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and consultations with the OECD to accelerate the process.
Such a deal is expected to significantly boost Thailand’s trade competitiveness in European markets.
“Exports remain a vital engine of Thailand’s economy. Even if exports stagnate over the next eight months, we will still maintain 4% average growth—above previous expectations. If we secure fair tariffs from the U.S., Thailand’s global competitiveness will strengthen even further,” Pichai concluded.
Thailand’s imports from China hit record high amid trade uncertainty and 90-day tariff truce
