Trumpcession Begins

Figures released by the Commerce Department Wednesday show that the United States' gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, after growing at a solid pace of 2.4% in the final months of 2024.

https://i.ibb.co/3YdVDRFM/real-GDP.jpg

-0.3% :)


The falling stock market has also taken a toll on confidence. As of Tuesday, the S&P 500 index was down 7.3% since Inauguration Day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 11%. It's the market's worst performance at the start of a new presidency since the 1970s.

American consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began, according to a recent report from the Conference Board. The consumer confidence index fell by 7.9 points in April, reaching a concerning 86, the lowest figure recorded since May 2020.

Trumps First 100 Days Were Worst for Dow, S&P 500 Since Nixon

Morgan Stanley (MS) places the odds of a recession this year at 40%, Goldman Sachs (GS) thinks the likelihood is 45%, and the cautious International Monetary Fund puts the chance of a U.S. recession at 40%, up from 25% last October.

There is more. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has said the chance of a recession this year is 65%, renowned Wall Street economist David Rosenberg thinks the odds are as high as 85%, and Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management (APO), calculates the chances of what he calls a “voluntary trade reset recession” at an almost certain 90%.

It is obviously a late effect of the Biden Administration economic policy.

It is also not true. Just fake reports by the leftist media.

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Originally Posted by Takeovers

It is obviously a late effect of the Biden Administration economic policy.

It is also not true. Just fake reports by the leftist media.

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I sure hope this is sarcasm. I really do.

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Originally Posted by aging one

I sure hope this is sarcasm. I really do.

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Trump himself said the stock market was "Biden's". :deadhorsebig:

For the Americans


trump dollar


100 days of Trump's impact on the U.S. dollar

https://i.ibb.co/mC98YTmB/trump-dollar.jpg

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Originally Posted by S Landreth

For the Americans

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:smileylaughing:

What a tool.

He's being green lighted by plenty of Republican politicians. They can all carry the can together.

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Originally Posted by S Landreth

100 days of Trump's impact on the U.S. dollar

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In not too distant history Trump was specific about calling for a cheaper dollar. He is getting what he wants, in effect manipulating the currency. That said, I don't think recession was part of the plan, Trump seems to find it difficult to understand joined up thinking.
Another objective was lower interest rates. That hasn't happened yet and bullying Powell hasn't had any effect so far. Of course, if Trump continues to trash the economy then Powell will probably have to lower interest rates. So Trump might yet get his way, albeit at the nation's expense. Plan B is to disband the Fed, goodness only knows where that would take us.

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Originally Posted by Shutree

In not too distant history Trump was specific about calling for a cheaper dollar. He is getting what he wants, in effect manipulating the currency.

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Not helping any Americans living abroad. And I do not think many countries want to purchase American products so that weak dollar is not helping.

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Originally Posted by Shutree

Another objective was lower interest rates. That hasn't happened yet and bullying Powell hasn't had any effect so far.

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Powell will not be pushed.

Trump says short-term recession OK: "This is a transition period"

President Trump says a recession is OK in the short term, in a clip of a pre-recorded interview with NBC's "Meet the Press with Kristen Welker" released on Friday.

Why it matters: Business owners and politicians alike have shared fears of a recession given the uncertainty surrounding the president's tariffs.

• Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok put the probability of a "Voluntary Trade Reset Recession" at 90% in a 40-page slide deck last month.

The latest: When Welker asked Trump whether he's "comfortable with the country potentially dipping into a recession for a period of time" if he were able to achieve his long-term goals, the president initially avoided answering the question directly.

• "Some people on Wall Street say that we're going to have the greatest economy in history. Why don't you talk about them?" he instead said.
• But after Welker pushed more, Trump responded, "Yeah, everything's OK. I said, this is a transition period. I think we're going to do fantastically."
• When asked if he was worried about a recession, Trump said: "Anything can happen. But I think we're going to have the greatest economy in the history of our country. I think we're going to have the greatest economic boom in history."

President Trump downplays recession fears, says U.S. would be ‘OK’ in long term

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPzOOoWNUO0

Stop.

It couldn't happen to a nicer country and a nicer people. :)

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Originally Posted by Neverna

It couldn't happen to a nicer country and a nicer people. :)

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And well deserved.
Even if this exceptional culture doesn't recognize [completely oblivious] the rhymes or reasons.
:chitown:

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Originally Posted by S Landreth

And I do not think many countries want to purchase American products so that weak dollar is not helping.

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If they want the existing kit to work they have to keep paying it is the new colonialism

The UK spends at least $2 billion annually on US defense goods and services. The UK's commitment to NATO's 2% of GDP spending target, which it currently surpasses with 2.3%, is a significant driver of this spending. A recent increase to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 will further boost defense spending, with the UK aiming for a long-term target of 3%

U.S. employers added 177,000 jobs last month, according to figures released Friday by the Labor Department. That's down modestly from the previous month, when revised figures show employers added 185,000 jobs, but the drop was smaller than forecasters had expected as the president's trade war intensified. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, even as more than half-a-million people joined or rejoined the workforce.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...idth=700&dpr=1

The health of the job market will be an important factor in whether the economy continues to shrink or begins to rebound. So long as people are working and earning money, they'll be able to keep spending, which is the main driver of the economy. If employment drops sharply or people are worried about losing their jobs, they may be more reluctant to spend, which could tip the economy into recession.

Federal Reserve leaves key rate unchanged as it sees risk of higher prices

The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, brushing off President Donald Trump’s demands to lower borrowing costs, and said that the risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen, an unusual combination that puts the central bank in a difficult spot.

The Fed kept its rate at 4.3% for the third straight meeting, after cutting it three times in a row at the end of last year. Many economists and Wall Street investors still expect the Fed will reduce rates this year.

During a press conference after the release of the policy statement, Chair Jerome Powell underscored that the tariffs have dampened consumer and business sentiment but have yet to noticeably harm the economy. At the moment, Powell said, there’s too much uncertainty to say how the Fed should react to the duties.

“If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they’re likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and a rise in unemployment,” Powell said. The impacts could be temporary, or more persistent, he added.

“There’s just so much that we don’t know," he added. “We’re in a good position to wait and see.”

Why Nobel Economist Paul Krugman Sees No Big Impact from India-US Trade Deal

Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman said that the India-US trade deal will significantly not impact either of the countries during an interview with CNBC-TV18. He also warned against a recession triggered by US President Donald Trump's policies.

Krugman noted that Washington is neither the largest trading partner of New Delhi, nor are the two countries each other's neighbours. Hence, they will not benefit significantly from a trade deal, he said. However, India may be able to offer some concessions to the US in terms of lower tariffs.

During the interview on Tuesday, Krugman also said that even after Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, there is a 50% chance of a recession. He also sees 'little or no growth' for the US, along with high unemployment and inflation and a 'certain' economic slowdown, along with stagflation this year.

Paul Krugman warned, “The risks are real, the slowdown is here, and we may be heading toward something far worse than just a soft patch.” He added, “Slower growth is certain. For 2025, I see little or no GDP growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation.”

"The impact of Trump’s trade actions will begin hitting consumers within weeks, with a clear bump-up in prices already in motion. The inflationary impact is coming,” Krugman stated.

He pointed out that while tariffs get the headlines, the deeper damage is being done by the policy uncertainty gripping US businesses. “It’s not just the tariffs—many companies have pulled back on expansion plans simply because they don’t know what’s coming next,” he said.

China, Asean finish talks to forge stronger free-trade deal amid US tariff war threat | South China Morning Post
Seems like they know this guy can't be trusted and are courting Europe, south East Asia etc it's been happening for a while but trumps erratticness has sped it up. I really feel sorry for Americans looks like shit will only get worse. Hell it's on a daily basis that the fucko does something weird.

It's there right to bear arms but maybe they need to exercise that right?

Larry Summers Asks Trump To 'Retreat' On Taxes Just Like He Did On Tariffs: 'Few More Days Like This And Recession Will Be Likely'

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers issued a stark warning to President Donald Trump, urging the latter to retreat on the taxes, as he did with the tariffs.

What Happened: On Wednesday, in a post on X, Summers said the “country risk trade is back,” citing simultaneous selloffs in U.S. bonds, equities and the dollar as a sign of rising economic fragility.

“A few more days like today and recession will be likely,” Summers says, while adding that the probability of a “financial accident” is also climbing, referring to potential blow-ups in banks, hedge funds, and financial institutions that could cause liquidity to dry up, further exacerbating the crisis.

Summers called on Trump to reconsider his proposed tax agenda, drawing parallels to Trump's recent tariff shift. “President Donald Trump needs to retreat on taxes just as he did on tariffs,” Summers says, referring to his walk-back on the aggressive tariff proposals following political and market backlash in recent weeks.

As U.S. Treasury Yields spiked on Wednesday, with 30-Year Treasuries hitting 5.09%, the highest level since 2023, equity markets witnessed a steep decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 816.80 points, or 1.91%, the S&P 500 dropping 1.61%, and the Nasdaq Composite index down 1.41%.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped below the 100 level on Wednesday and is currently trading at 99.548, marking its third consecutive day of losses.

Why It Matters: Early this week, Summers warned that the U.S. was at risk of a fiscal crisis similar to the meltdown in the U.K. in 2022, calling it a “Liz Truss moment,” referring to the former British Prime Minister who was ousted soon after the crisis.

“We're on a path towards having an episode like that. I think it will be very costly for our economy, and for the global economy,” he said.


Summers, a Clinton-era Treasury Secretary, said last week that it was Trump who blinked on the tariffs, and despite being a vocal critic of this administration, he lauded the move, saying that “sometimes it’s good to blink.”

Larry Summers Asks Trump To 'Retreat' On Taxes Just Like He Did On Tariffs: 'Few More Days Like This And Recession Will Be Likely'

Treasury yields slide after retail sales tumbled in May, raising recession fears

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday after retail sales narrowed more than Wall Street economists had expected, lifting bond prices and raising concern that the economy is headed for a slowdown or even a recession.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell more than 6 basis points to 4.387%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was lower by more than 2 basis points to 3.946%.

One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%, and bond yields and prices move inversely, meaning prices are higher Tuesday.

Retail sales dropped by 0.9% in May according to the Census Bureau, worse than the 0.6% contraction that had been estimated by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Excluding automobiles, sales last month eased by 0.3%, underperforming the Street’s expectation for a 0.1% increase. Gas station sales slid 2% in the month, which can reflect both lower prices but possibly slower economic activity.

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Exclusive: CEO economic outlook sinks to five-year low

Economic sentiment among America's top CEOs plunged to the lowest level since 2020, according to a new survey by the Business Roundtable, first seen by Axios.

Why it matters: Chief executives have not been this sour on the economy since the once-in-a-century pandemic, with significant downgrading expectations for hiring, investment and sales growth.

By the numbers: The Business Roundtable's CEO Economic Outlook Index fell by 15 points to 69, a drop that brings the index well below its historical average of 83. It remains above the level that signals an economic recession.

• The index decline is a result of tepid expectations for the months ahead, most notably on the hiring front.
• The employment subindex plummeted by almost 19 points, with more than 40% of CEOs expecting to shrink their workforces in the next six months — up from the roughly 30% who said the same last quarter.

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Trump 2.0 tariff tracker

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Originally Posted by Takeovers

It is obviously a late effect of the Biden Administration economic policy.

It is also not true. Just fake reports by the leftist media.

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If it is not true - how can it be Bidens fault?

Your ability to simultaneously hold two contradicting viewpoints is quite impressive.

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Originally Posted by nidhogg

If it is not true - how can it be Bidens fault?

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:smileylaughing:

If it looks like a Trumptard...

Teflon Don's inability to understand world politics is also reducing confidence. Russia invades Ukraine. Russia gets drones from Iran. Netanyahu bombs Iran, and then Trump starts posting about bombing Iran. He cannot see see the big picture in any world situation, just look at his stumbling on tariffs.