Thread: Which Thai finance company might fall?

My initial bet would be BankThai.

With TPG Newbridge as a major shareholder, I think BankThai might just be on a sticky wicket. The only things that may be saving them are: (a) they were too broke when everyone else was running around buying up crappy securitised debt; and (b) the other major shareholder is the FIDF.

My second bet would be SCB. I just have a feeling that management and employees of SCB may just be working late at the moment trying to get their shit together.

On its exposure to the Thai property market, I might go with Thanchart.

Because of its historically close relationship with Lehman, Phatra employees might be burning the midnight oil too.

So which Thai finance company are you betting on?

Thai Military has also big problems but then that would not be allowed to to fall

but could be the new kid on the block Land and House

^I think Thai Military are in with MacQuarie - aren't they? Best they not fall, as my money is with that crap Aussie outlet

we work with most of them so imagine my boss is getting edgy and there will go my bonus

just think of all the thai small business depending on factoring business with any of these banks

Doesnt SCB belong to the man at the very top?

So if a guy, like a friend of mine, a good friend of mine had a bit of dough in SCB, would it be good idea to pull it out and stick it in a home safe?

^^
yes his face in on the money

Originally Posted by William

My initial bet would be BankThai.

I thought they went broke already last year and got bought out by some "special" funds,

will need to find the story,

^yes, that's the TPG Newbridge part

Originally Posted by William

^I think Thai Military are in with MacQuarie - aren't they? Best they not fall, as my money is with that crap Aussie outlet

I heard that they have just laid off a lot of Thai staff

Does Kasikorn fit into this equation? I have not heard anything but they do lend money on home purchase quite easily. Just a thought!!

kasikorn is safe. Most Thai banks have good ratings on standard and poors.

^yes; as they did in 1996. Who rates the rater?

LLOYDS TSB is reportedly in talks to buy fellow British bank HBOS, in deep trouble on the stock market amid the crisis engulfing global financial markets, it emerged today.

more poms in trouble

well, BT would also be my guess, how is that bank surviving is a mystery,

I know SCB was involved in some subprime from the US, but I think they sold it all to some SPV or asset management firm,

SCB as Siam Commercial Bank, which is a great bank incidentally, better service than you can find in Europe these days,

or Siam City Bank which is a crappy bank at par with BankTai, they should merge actually, maybe 1 turd is better than 2

I would guess once the info about insurance companies having problems gets down to earth level a lot of little people might think twice about giving their money to companies that could fail. The risk factor will do damage to companies like this. Is AIA part of AIG? If so, I think their business will stall right out. AIA is very big here in LOS as far as I can see. Some of the smaller financial companies from abroad might not be able to support offices overseas. The weak will pull in their arms to protect the home company. I don't see a lot of money for international expansion if things keep going the way they are. The companies that supply Thai workers abroad may suffer if companies in foreign lands aren't getting the business. Contract workers will have it bad as they are easy to dump.

Not sure about banks but those which lend a lot for speculative real estate or to poor people would take the first hits if things get worse and people lose jobs. If graduating students can pay back loans that could be an issue for student loan providers but it seems that Thailand has a history students not repaying loans so maybe this is not important.

Wth tough times spread around the globe, there will be less travellers and that means less tourist spending. But there are lots of repressed horny men who have been forced into retirement who have always had a plan to move to LOS so there could be new longtermers spending their dosh here. Thailand is a cheap place for all retirees so long as they like Thai food, the culture, and the climate.

I've been wondering about this.

Missus has her wedge in Bangkok Bank and at the moment can't exactly get back to get it. Wondering if she should pop back sooner and get it out or if it's safe there at all.

I don't know. It would be a shame for her to lose everything she has worked so hard to make.

^My bet would be that BBL would be OK. They mostly deal with the Chinese and have little to do with the West

Rat: AIA is part of the AIG group, but a separate entity. The same also applies here in Aus with AIG, they have a local business that is separate from the Mother-ship. Noises being made here is that it has no effect on them whatsoever.

Funny enough, country CEO for Lehman was in the letters page of the SMH about 1-2 months ago harping on about how CDOs were as safe as houses - because lots of local councils have invested shit-loads in them that they have now lost and crying foul over because they need the money to meet day-to-day needs *have to wonder sometimes*. Wonder how he feels this week.

well, look like we got it all wrong

BT and SCIB say no Lehman exposure

Two local banks yesterday issued clarifications about their foreign investment portfolios in response to investor concerns that they could be forced to book higher provisions to cover potential losses due to gyrations in the international financial markets.

BankThai and Siam City Bank both insisted they had no exposure to securities of failed investment bank Lehman Brothers.

BankThai, in a statement to the Stock Exchange of Thailand, said its outstanding foreign investment portfolio would stand at $410 million as of the end of this month. This compares with $690 million at the end of the second quarter.

Sutee Losoponkul, an executive of BankThai’s treasury and trading division, said the bank sold down its entire portfolio of collateralised debt obligations on July 29, gaining 970 million baht to be booked in the third quarter.

Remaining investments remain current, with $190 million in principal repayments due to be paid this month as a result of early redemptions due to declining overseas interest rates.

‘‘We will earn $140 million from early redemption in foreign bonds over the next several days. We will receive $190 million to be paid by the end of the month,’’ Mr Sutee said.

‘‘Most of the debentures are issued by European banks. BankThai expects other foreign bonds would be called for early redemption as a result of falling interest rates trends.’’

BankThai said in its statement to the SET that its remaining foreign portfolio comprised of $190 million sovereign bonds or debt issued by state entities and guaranteed by foreign governments.
‘‘Such debts are not classified as risk assets and carry a risk weight of zero,’’ the bank said, and comprised $50 million in Korean government bonds and debt instruments issued by state agencies and guaranteed by the German and Canadian governments.

Another $220 million in overseas investments included debentures issued by six international banks: Rabobank, HSBC France, JPMorgan Chase, Royal Bank of Canada, KBC Bank and Dexia Banque Internationale, Luxembourg. The securities have ratings of AA- to AAA.

BankThai executives said they would maintain a neutral investment policy pending the entry of Malaysia’s CIMB as a major shareholder.

At Siam City Bank, president Chaiwat Utaiwan said the bank’s outstanding foreign investments totalled 13.5 billion baht, or just 3.3% of its total assets.

‘‘The entire of the investment are in sovereign bonds and state entities guaranteed by foreign governments with investment-grade ratings,’’ he said.

Siam City Bank had hedged its risk against its foreign bond portfolio, Mr Chaiwat said, and had no exposure to Lehman Brothers.

Bank shares across the world took a beating on investor fears that exposure to Lehman Brothers securities could force huge writedowns after the Wall Street giant declared bankruptcy last week.

According to the Bank of Thailand, local banks have approximately 4.1 billion baht in exposure to Lehman Brothers securities, with the large majority held by market leader Bangkok Bank.

BT shares closed yesterday on the SET at 1.30 baht, down one satang, in trade worth 483,000 baht. SCIB shares closed at 11.60 baht