Thread: Why is the Baht strengthening?

Briefly, the THB is accelerating in strength, particularly against the GBP, on a daily basis. Reasons given for this on 'another forum' have thrown up comments such as 'Well it's strenthening against ALL currencies' given the declining USD.

Question: Why did the pound drop 30% (give or take) immediately after Brexit? That didn't affect 'all currencies', it was predominantly the pound which was hardest hit. I don't know about the rest of Europe.

I'd appreciate any opinions on this august forum given one of the other ones *cough cough* appears to be filled with muppets fighting among themselves giving polar opposite conclusions. So, friends, why IS it strengthening? Any ideas particularly taking my UK Brexit as an exception to 'all other currencies' remark into account, would be appreciated. Thanks.

Originally Posted by tamsin

Question: Why did the pound drop 30% (give or take) immediately after Brexit?

The answer is in the question: Brexit.

I don't understand exactly why the Thai Baht is strengthening now, I'm not aware of any good news for the Thai economy. I don't know about 'all' currencies, however, it is certainly up against the USD, GBP and Euro.

My opinion FWIIW. The THB influence has little to do with the UK sector and it has little influence. The USD and markets drive it all and so if you track the US segment Vs Thailand market it tracks.

Actually there is some news about positive sentiments for the Thai economy, see MK's post.

Isn’t there new leadership? That also results in initial positive sentiment. Of course all those Brits on pensions will be crying into their insipid milky teas.

Originally Posted by DrWilly

Isn’t there new leadership? That also results in initial positive sentiment.

There was also new leadership in the UK, but minus the positive sentiment. The pound's gone down ever since.

The THB is largely tied to the USD, the GBP position is a factor of that. The Thai economy is in the shitter. Cheap chinky imports undermining local manufacturers and Japs deciding to onshore, there just isn't reason to invest and that will hit exports. Of course if the Chinky Thai decided to add levies to imports from their masters aside from VAT then that might change the position of domestic producers but for far too long Thais have got away with levies on imports whilst they have been allowed to export almost levy free.

Fuk em is what I say.

Originally Posted by cyrille

Broken fuxin' record.

Hope they fill in that pool next week after encouraging you to take a dive.

charming.

have you run out of your monthly gin allowance?

Half your posts these days are attacks on Brits.

Which is fine, but like Panama Twat you actually seem surprised when one returns serve.

Be a [at][at][at][at], get responded to like a [at][at][at][at].

Get it?


Alternatively, just continue your tedious feud with armstrong by name, eh.

Originally Posted by Stumpy

The USD and markets drive it all

Yep. Marginal loses at best. I think long term fiscal instability inside LOS will correct this temporary uptick against the USD. In regard to Sterling, it is another story.

Originally Posted by cyrille

Half your posts these days are attacks on Brits.

Which is fine, but like Panama Twat you actually seem surprised when one returns serve.

Be a [at][at][at][at], get responded to like a [at][at][at][at].

Get it?

Yeah, what a tuff blood you are.

Originally Posted by bsnub

I think long term fiscal instability inside LOS will correct this temporary uptick against the USD

Correct and not so long term unless you consider 1 Jan 25 long term.

USD is weakening as inflation falls and interest rates will decline with a reduction by the Fed imminent. Similarly, the £ is dropping with inflation falling to 2.5% and further BoE cuts expected. This explains the current blips.

£ did not fall as a consequence of the election, it maintained stability and the markets are supporting this not least because after the volatility of the Tory rabble over the past 6 years they prize stability.

The indicators are positive and most pundits are predicting an increase in the £ by end year/next year. Once the budget is sorted the £ will rise or steady at around 45.50.

The baht is propped up systemically by the Thai governments not increasing debt to fund infrastructure and they get away with it because the peasantry are supine, compliant and oafishly stupid. But personal debt is critical, amounting to over 16% of GDP which will curtail any future expansion of the economy through credit easing. With ChinaÂ’s half arsed economy unbalancing further, the prospects are not rosy for the Thai. Remember the last Shinawattra government stoked the baht but the crash followed quickly when the rice pledge disaster and corruption manifested itself and the baht fell dramatically.

This year same same.

Brexit reduced £ by 20% across the board where it has remained.

With baht falling we may see £=48 baht by next Jan………

Originally Posted by Seekingasylum

With baht falling we may see £=48 baht by next Jan………

Think we will or near there. Transfer only enough dosh to replenish your sausage stock til year end.

Originally Posted by baldrick

Fails to mention the precipitous debt mountain held by most Thai individuals. Especially those SME entrepreneurs. As they default on those loans, Thailand will be left with nothing.

I agree. A Thai comment pointed out that was missing from the video. Given that and the impending 'digital wallet' (yes, I know 10k is to be splashed out to the most needy) but if and when it is implemented (under WEF orders) the economy will tank. Hopefully.

I do love Benjamin Hart's (Integrity Legal) rants on this, but he considers himself Thai. He steps out onto the street and just like others who've been 'naturalised' are FARANG to the Thais. And can't help wondering why comments supporting this claim shaking their heads are from other farang who will massively benefit. Bring it on

Anyway, thanks for all of your replies, but I'm still of the mind a bit of 'tweaking' still going on since the last coup.

Originally Posted by Stumpy

My opinion FWIIW. The THB influence has little to do with the UK sector and it has little influence. The USD and markets drive it all and so if you track the US segment Vs Thailand market it tracks.

I would agree

Originally Posted by tamsin

I know 10k is to be splashed out to the most need

A polite way of putting it.
As it was an election bribe or promise it will happen and merely become the norm.

Unless the shins returned with a magic money tree, as well as the "GET OUT OF JAIL CARD' this payent unrelated to any real productiivty is counter productive, inflationary and self defeating in the long run.

Originally Posted by Switch

Fails to mention the precipitous debt mountain held by most Thai individuals

yes I agree this is relevant - as an aside , many countries whose citizens have access to credit have a problem

tampon certainly comes off as a smug tw@.

Originally Posted by baldrick

yes I agree this is relevant - as an aside , many countries whose citizens have access to credit have a problem

Yep, not only the official total debt but also fraction of that which is unsecured. The numbers are out there somewhere if someone wants to search, so far as I recall the unsecured portion of Thai debt is much higher than the UK's.
Then there is the off book private debt, to loan sharks and village lenders. Some of that is 'secured', mostly with land title deeds, and some is simply unsecured.
Yet, somehow, life goes on.

Originally Posted by cyrille

tampon certainly comes off as a smug tw@.

et tu cwille - it is good of you to offer your perspicacity