Results 1 to 2 of 2
  1. #1
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Last Online
    @
    Posts
    17,214

    Thai Growth May Falter

    China Reopening Not Enough to Power Thai Growth to 4% in 2023


    • Waning exports, strong baht, election are seen as risks
    • Economists median estimate for 2023 GDP is unchanged at 3.7%


    By Suttinee Yuvejwattana and Cynthia Li (Bloomberg)

    January 19, 2023 at 6:00 AM GMT+7

    An upswing in tourism from China’s reopening will help boost Thailand’s economy, but isn’t sufficient to restore growth to pre-pandemic levels just yet, according to analysts.

    Thailand’s gross domestic product will probably expand 3.7% this year, according to the median estimate in a recent Bloomberg survey of economists. While that will make it the fastest expansion in five years, it’s still ways off from the 4.2% growth seen in 2017 and 2018.

    That’s because economists expect Chinese tourist arrivals to be about half of as much as 10 million that the government predicts will visit the “Land of Smiles” this year. Nine of the economists surveyed see Thailand’s tourism sector staging a full recovery to pre-Covid levels from 2024.

    About 28% of Thailand’s 40 million annual visitors before the pandemic were from China. Tourism accounts for at least 12% of the Thai economy and a fifth of jobs while private consumption make up 50% of GDP. Along with exports that’s equal to more than half the output, they form the lifeblood of the Thai economy.

    While inbound travelers are likely to surpass the government’s initial estimate of 25 million this year, shipments abroad are seen to languish as the global economy dims and the baht rebounds to near a 10-month high. A general election by May is also seen as a boon and a bane.

    “It’s not clear how much rising travelers will boost GDP growth,” according to National Economic and Social Development Council Secretary-General Danucha Pichayanan who said the agency will review its growth projection likely when it reports fourth quarter gross domestic product on Feb. 17. “Weak global demand will hurt our exports significantly and will drag our GDP growth. We have both push and pull factors to consider.”

    The Thai National Shippers Council expects exports to grow 1%-3% in 2023. They worry that the currency’s 5% gain, which has made it the region’s best performer so far this year, will erode price competitiveness. The baht has risen more than 15% since plunging to a 16-year low in October, buoyed as well by the prospects of China’s return to the tourism market.

    Thailand is estimated to have welcomed at least 11.5 million foreign travelers last year, surpassing the initial 10 million estimate, luring guests with longer-term visas, looser requirements and come-ons like the legalization of weed for medical use. Inflation that hit a 14-year high in 2022 is expected to cool this year and will likely convince the central bank to pause shortly.

    Still, tourism isn’t expected to inflate the economy fast enough amid weak global growth and prospects of slower government spending after the election, which Nomura Holdings Inc., in a Jan. 13 note said is “an under-appreciated risk.” A “fragmented outcome” of the vote could delay government spending, it said.

    Election-related spending of at least 40 billion baht ($1.2 billion) could boost GDP by as much as 0.3 percentage point, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

    “A number of parties will campaign heavily from poster printing to promotional cars,” said Thanavath Phonvichai, the university’s president. “The money will mainly go to low-to-middle income people, who will spend almost 100% of what they earn. The money will circulate quickly and double the impact on the economy.”


    Majestically enthroned amid the vulgar herd

  2. #2
    5 4 Knoll
    david44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Last Online
    @
    Location
    At Large
    Posts
    21,084
    Love or loathe tourists they provide many low paid an hinest living without more debt.

    I visited a closed C Rai and C mai at the height height of the pandemic ,shutters everywhere

    Now seems to be recovering but some have permanently closed or workers gone elsewhere

    Thailand's attractions will always help, political stability is also a factor.
    Quote Originally Posted by Latindancer View Post
    I just want the chance to use a bigger porridge bowl.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •