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  1. #1
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Calling a Super Bubble

    Calling a Super Bubble: Front Row With Jeremy Grantham

    2,111,537 views • Jan 27, 2022 •
    For almost a half-century, value-investing icon Jeremy Grantham has been calling market bubbles.
    Now, he says U.S. stocks are in a “super bubble,” only the fourth in history, and poised to collapse.

    In this interview, Grantham, co-founder of Boston’s GMO, goes further, explaining his bubble analysis and discussing what he sees as multiple threats to the economy and the planet, including persistent inflation and climate change. He spoke exclusively with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg’s “Front Row.”

    Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago ...


  2. #2
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    Shutree's Avatar
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    Could be right. Of course, if you call it long enough you will eventually be right.

    I was betting against the DOW before Covid and when that started there was some negativity. Then the US government gave people free money, much of which found its way into the market and up it surged, although not every sector benefitted. In simple terms, that is not sustainable. It will go down. The big question is: when? The next question is: how fast?

  3. #3
    Thailand Expat panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    Could be right. Of course, if you call it long enough you will eventually be right.
    I'd agree with that . . . akin to a broken watch being correct twice a day. Inflation was bound to be impacted by the bali-out measures of governments wanting to try to keep their country afloat, as shutree mentioned. Money that could have been either not spent at all or used to re-build infrastructure.




    Quote Originally Posted by David48atTD View Post
    persistent inflation and climate change
    Easy targets . . . petrol here will be at $3.50/litre soon and $4-$5 by the end of the year. This, in turn is inflationary and the rest is simple economics 101

  4. #4
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Easy targets big time!

    We'd be taking the piss out of any TD posters who made such fkin obvious predictions.

    City to win the English Premier League footie title for me, Martin.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    Easy targets big time!

    We'd be taking the piss out of any TD posters who made such fkin obvious predictions.

    City to win the English Premier League footie title for me, Martin.
    are you talking to yourself or was that aimed at anyone in particular?

  6. #6
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Maybe you should read the post preceding mine?

    Y'know...the post any sentient being would assume I was responding to?

  7. #7
    Thailand Expat
    malmomike77's Avatar
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    so you agree, a super bubble then Syb?

  8. #8
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    I think we could easily drop 10-15% maximum from here, but super bubble 50% drop no chance

  9. #9
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    ^ yep, just a minor correction - i can't see a whole sale sell off.

  10. #10
    Thailand Expat Texpat's Avatar
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    The catastrophic drop in 2008-9 was all recovered in less than 7 years. Fuck, it's good being under 60. Especially when you're got dashing good looks and are smart as a whip.

  11. #11
    Thailand Expat
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    Average bear market about 2 years, bull market 7 years. Better to hold.

  12. #12
    In Uranus
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    Quote Originally Posted by Texpat View Post
    The catastrophic drop in 2008-9 was all recovered in less than 7 years.
    That was brought on by the Bush administration. Thanks to Obama, steering the country to prosperity and a record wave that your fat orange shitbird rode for the first two years of his presidency until reality set in.

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    The 2008 crash was not permitted to run its cycle given the existential threat to the western banking system and thus QE flooded the markets with liquidity and ushered in the era of zero interest rates curtailing inflation and extended credit access sustaining consumer demand.

    We never really had the 'crash' and with successive QE the system has been awash in cash which has propelled both the property and equity markets.

    But now inflation has finally leached into the system and it has to b addressed ........but stagflation is the prospect and if Putin detonates a tactical nuke on Kyiv then...

    This has to b the worst decade and it's only going to end in more tears.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seekingasylum View Post
    This has to b the worst decade and it's only going to end in more tears.
    for who, the 1%ers?, the simpering so called middle class with their pensions, house and some cash in the bank? who'll complain about the cost of airfares and holidays?

  15. #15
    Im bored AF Backspin's Avatar
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    Basically the entire developed world has turned itself into Weimar Germany. Any crash will be just a dip and more money printing will ensue. Real systemic shortages will set in. And nothing will get better unless there's the political will to stop the printing. And there wont be. Someone in power will think putting Nato boots on the ground in Ukraine will be a good solution.
    I took the US 75 days to take Fallujah and 267 days to take Mosul. Russia took Mariupol in 88 days.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by malmomike77 View Post
    for who, the 1%ers?, the simpering so called middle class with their pensions, house and some cash in the bank? who'll complain about the cost of airfares and holidays?
    The UK middle class is a bit larger than 1% and although they will have cause to whinge later this year as rising energy prices feed inflation and the economy contracts it is typically the 'working class' or the 'less well off', or whatever the current term is, who will likely suffer most from a downturn. Those with some cash in the bank can at least manage things a bit. Those people who will have to choose between food on the table or petrol to get to work, those for whom it is less easy to work from home, they are the ones who'll get hurt.
    If 1Q2023 contracts as 4Q2022 is expected to then that will be an official recession, a shrinking economy plus inflation = stagflation. No winners there, it was an unhappy time for those of us who remember the 1970s. And although I am talking here of UK it would not surprise me to see other countries drift in the same direction.

  17. #17
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Dow drops 1,100 points, heads for biggest one-day loss since 2020

    The Dow shed 1,164 points, or 3.6%, or the average’s biggest decline since October 2020.
    The S&P 500 traded 4% lower, the biggest drop since June 2020. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 4.6%, the largest fall in the tech-heavy index since May 5.
    The selling was broad and intense on Wall Street with just 13 members of the S&P 500 in the green.

    Markets returned to heavy selling after two back-to-back quarterly reports from Target and Walmart stoked investor fears of rising inflation.
    It’s the fifth Dow decline of more than 800 points this year, which all occurred as the stock sell-off intensified within the last one month, according to FactSet data.


    Dow drops 1,100 points for its biggest decline since 2020 as the sell-off this year on Wall Street intensifies

  18. #18
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    The S&P 500 fell Thursday as the benchmark inched closer to a bear market.
    Investors continued to dump equities on fears Federal Reserve rate hikes to fight rapid inflation would tip the economy into a recession.

    The broad market index fell 0.58% to 3,900.79, after falling 4% on Wednesday.
    The index is teetering on bear market territory sitting about 19% below its record reached in January.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 236.94 points, or 0.75%, to 31,253.13 — a day after it too experienced the biggest one-day drop since 2020 in the prior session, losing 1,164 points.

    The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.26% to 11,388.50 — following a 4.7% decline on Wednesday.

    “The main takeaway for investors is to brace for extended volatility,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments. “We believe that volatility is going to be the investor narrative for the balance of Q2, and frankly, you know, for the balance of 2022.”

    S&P 500 falls again on Thursday, inching closer to bear market territory

  19. #19
    Im bored AF Backspin's Avatar
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    Not a problem. Just print more money.

    It worked for 13 years. Why not more. In 2009 , companies were too big to fail. Now the bubbles are too big to fail.

  20. #20
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Not a problem. Just print more money.

    It worked for 13 years. Why not more. In 2009 , companies were too big to fail. Now the bubbles are too big to fail.
    BS, if you haven't been paying attention, the US is reducing it's quantitative easing, hence reducing the economic stimulus and one of the reasons why the US stock/Share Market is contracting.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    The UK middle class is a bit larger than 1%
    yes Shu my punctuation was obviously wrong, i meant the 1% and then the Middle classes.

    Quote Originally Posted by malmomike77 View Post
    for who, the 1%ers?, the simpering so called middle class with their pensions

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Backspin View Post
    Not a problem. Just print more money.

    It worked for 13 years. Why not more. In 2009 , companies were too big to fail. Now the bubbles are too big to fail.
    except only a few countries can get away with it, look at Sri Lanka.

  23. #23
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by malmomike77 View Post
    yes Shu my punctuation was obviously wrong, i meant the 1% and then the Middle classes.
    Ah! If I had applied a little more thought then I'd have realised, I wasn't on a mission to join the grammar police.
    That wouldn't have changed the theme of my reply though. Tough times ahead for all and I think the least well-off will have it worst. I chanced upon something on the BBC with various people setting out their positions, some people already have genuine financial difficulties, using blankets in place of heating and even turning fridges off on alternate days (which sounds unwise), sending kids to school in yesterday's clothes to avoid using the washing machine. There will always be scroungers on the social welfare system, not everyone and some of those decent people need help now. There seems no reason at the moment to think that come the autumn things are going to be any better.
    The Bank of England is between a rock and a hard place. How to rein in inflation without the economy crashing? There is uncertainty and it is always parroted that the markets don't like uncertainty, so I think there is some way yet for shares to fall.

  24. #24
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shutree View Post
    so I think there is some way yet for shares to fall.
    Yep, on this we agree.

    Oil companies seem to be doing well just now though.

  25. #25
    Thailand Expat David48atTD's Avatar
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    Traders are lining up to short the British pound with a possible recession on the horizon

    Key Points
    • Inflation came in at an annual 9% in April, a 40-year high, as food and energy prices continued to spiral.
    • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has warned of an “apocalyptic” outlook for consumers as a recent survey also showed that a quarter of Britons have resorted to skipping meals.


    The Bank of England faces the unenviable task of raising interest rates in a bid to anchor inflation expectations while avoiding tipping the economy into recession, a balance that appears to be growing ever more difficult to strike. The Bank expects GDP to slump in the final three months of this year.

    Traders are lining up to short the British pound with a recession on the horizon

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