Thread: Calling a Super Bubble

Originally Posted by Shutree

The Bank of England is between a rock and a hard place. How to rein in inflation without the economy crashing?

it didn't come out behind its rock and act when it should have over a year ago. I really cannot see how hard it can be to do the Governors job for 1/2 a Mil

European politicians, not it's citizens, they have yet to express their views through the ballot box, take the wrong path?

THE LORD illustrates Europe's politicians strange route to diminish one of their key financial assets, up to recently; Russian supplied oil, gas and to another, electricity.

Putin on Europe's Choice: Deindustrialisation and Systemic Uncompetitiveness

Meeting on oil industry development

The President held a meeting on oil industry development via videoconference.

May 17, 2022
16:00

The Kremlin, Moscow

"President of Russia Vladimir Putin:

Good afternoon, colleagues,

Today, we will discuss the situation in the oil industry as part of our regular meetings on economic issues.

For Russia, with its huge hydrocarbon reserves, this industry, as well as the fuel-and-energy complex as a whole, has been and remains one of the leading components of the national economy. It is playing a tangible role in meeting the requirements of the domestic market, and, of course, in using the country’s export potential.

What would I like to say in this connection? All these years, in all previous years, we have paid special attention to this industry. We were actively developing new deposits, increasing production and upgrading the quality of oil refining. We were introducing innovations, digital, eco-friendly technology and services on a broad scale. Stable, reliable supplies of Russian oil to foreign customers served as a guarantee of Russia’s future leading positions in global energy supplies. Naturally, the Government and the authorities at all other levels, including the regions, always supported you.

Unfortunately, our colleagues in the Western countries behaved in a quite different manner. Both you and representatives of the energy sector in other countries know and understand all this perfectly well. In effect, the so-called political class in the West began to exploit the completely natural concern of many people in the world over climate and climate change problems.
It is perfectly obvious that, for internal political reasons, the so-called political class in the West started overrating the potentialities of alternative energy and underrating the importance of all traditional energy sources, including hydrocarbons. This continuous abuse was of quite specific nature.

I want to repeat, and you know this better than anyone else: there were restrictions in bank financing, contrived lawsuits were and probably are still initiated against companies and their management, land plots necessary for new projects are not being allocated, the development of various kinds of transport is being hindered, and problems are created in freight shipping and other areas necessary for providing timely and sufficient investment in the sector. All of this underlies the problems that arise in the global energy industry, primarily with oil and gas.

Naturally and very obviously, there are also political considerations. By the way, everything that happens in this area, including, unfortunately, everything around Ukraine, is related to the ill-considered policy of the so-called collective West, which for decades ignored Russia’s justified security concerns, and in every possible way fostered nationalist and neo-Nazi elements in the Kiev leadership, neglected problems that were taking shape in Ukraine’s southeast, and, in fact, for the past eight years facilitated the ongoing hostilities that were launched by the Kiev regime eight years ago.

Today, we see that for purely political reasons, driven by their own ambitions, and under pressure from their US overlord, the European countries are imposing more sanctions on the oil and gas markets which will lead to more inflation. Instead of admitting their mistakes, they are looking for a guilty party elsewhere.

Indeed, the Europeans openly admit they are unable to fully go without Russian energy resources at this point. It is also clear that some EU countries with a particularly high share of Russian hydrocarbons in their energy balance will not be able to do without Russian energy for a long time going forward. However, they have set this goal for themselves oblivious to the damage they are doing to their respective economies.

One gets the impression that Western politicians and economists simply forget basic economic laws or just choose to ignore them.

What are they trying to accomplish with these decisions?

First, the sanctions imposed by our European colleagues and the declarations on refusing to use any Russian energy in the future have sent spot market oil prices higher. You are aware of this. One ill-considered word at the political level is instantly reflected on the market.
Second, the prices for petroleum products on the European market, such as diesel fuel, are growing even faster than oil prices due to actual shortages. This energy inflation – they are trying to blame us for energy inflation, put our names on it, and blame everything on Russia in an attempt to cover up, as I said, their own blunders in this sphere. Already today, this is impacting European transport and industry generally, and is falling heavily on the shoulders of millions of European consumers.

Finally, third and most important, saying no to Russian energy means that Europe will systemically and for the long term become the world’s most costly region for energy resources. Yes, prices will rise, and resources will go to counter these price hikes, but this will not change the situation significantly. Some analysts are saying that it will seriously or even irrevocably undermine the competitiveness of a significant portion of European industry, which is already losing ground to companies from other parts of the world. Now, these processes will certainly pick up pace. Clearly, the opportunities for economic activity, with its improvements, will leave Europe for other regions, as will Russia’s energy resources.

This economic auto-da-fe… suicide is, of course, the internal affair of the European countries. But in the meantime, we need to act pragmatically, proceeding primarily from our own economic interests.

Now our partners’ erratic actions – this is what they are – have resulted in a de facto growth in revenue in the Russian oil-and-gas sector in addition to the damage to the European economy. We should certainly bear this in mind; we understand and see it but it should not unbrace our companies.

The changes in the oil market are tectonic and, of course, business is unlikely to follow old patterns. Under these new conditions, it is important not only to produce oil but also to build an entire vertical chain, all the way to the end consumer.

Colleagues, under the circumstances the state will continue doing all it can to create conditions for changing the business models of companies – improve logistics opportunities and ensure transactions in national currencies – I realise there are certain restrictions in this respect, as we have discussed many times, but it is necessary to work for this, and that’s what we will do. We will make loans and insurance services more affordable for oil companies and encourage projects on the advanced processing of raw materials and upgrading domestic oil services technology, including the development of deposits and extraction.

At the April 14 meeting, we reviewed in detail the change in priorities in developing the oil-and-gas industry. We made strategic decisions to protect the long-term interests of the Russian economy.

Understanding what steps the West will take in the near future, we must reach conclusions in advance and be proactive, turning the thoughtless chaotic steps of some of our partners to our advantage for the benefit of our country. Naturally, we should not hope for their endless mistakes. We should simply, practically proceed from current realities, as I said.

In this connection, I would like to discuss a plan for additional measures that will allow us to protect our national interests as much as possible, and strengthen our economic sovereignty, in this case in the fuel-and-energy sector, primarily the oil industry.

Let’s analyse all these issues carefully, look at them and consult with you on what we should do in the near future.


I am giving the floor to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak."

Meeting on oil industry development • President of RussiaCaution may be advised for the uninitiated, regarding postings here on TD. This may not pass the accepted smell test:

1. A Government Leader is speaking.

2. I was not physically at the meeting.

3. No live video has been issued.

4. No physical appearances have included THE LORD as being present recently.

5. The article was not behind a paywall, indicating it is of no significance to our TD members.

6. I use Google translator, which may or may not be truth tested or hacked by foreign SS operations.

Others have suggested THE LORD may have a number of illnesses, or had sustained physical and psychological damage, possibly caused by riding on the back of bears, horses, even a giraffe and more suspiciously;

Without wearing a western company's, logoed Tee Shirt."

Originally Posted by
bsnub;4394015

That was brought on by the Bush administration. Thanks to Obama, steering the country to prosperity and a record wave that your fat orange shitbird rode for the first two years of his presidency until reality set in.

Easy on snubbie, remember the last time your fantasies landed you in the ER.

Messiah-loving mods can't stand such sacrilege, can ya, snowflake imbeciles.

After all is said and done, I don’t think we will enter a super bubble. No one has died - unless you live in Ukraine or attend school in the US.

Originally Posted by Texpat

Easy on snubbie, remember the last time your fantasies landed you in the ER.

Messiah-loving mods can't stand such sacrilege, can ya, snowflake imbeciles.

I dont check "the markets" anymore. Hows this bubble doing ? It probably rebounded right

I started this thread because I genuinely believe that the World is going to see some very dark days economically over the next year or three.

• The War
• Mega (not hyper) Inflation
• Chinese Economic contraction due to their zero Covid policy
• Potential reversing house prices
• ... and maybe one more black swan event not foreshadowed in the next 3 years.

Top financiers and millionaires just met up in the Swiss Alps. And the mood was terrible

Key Points

• While some foresaw regional pockets of recession in countries or continents particularly exposed to the Russia-Ukraine war and global supply chain problems – with Europe a particular concern – others painted a bleaker global picture.
• Inflation has soared worldwide, with food and energy costs skyrocketing as the war and supply chain bottlenecks bite, along with the residual effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Davos: Financiers met up in the Swiss Alps. And the mood was terrible

Below is the US Market, but there are echos around the world.

---

Home listings suddenly jump as sellers worry they may miss out on the red-hot housing market

Key Points

• The supply of homes for sale jumped 9% last week compared with the same week one year ago, according to Realtor.com.
• Real estate brokerage Redfin also reported that new listings rose nearly twice as fast in the four weeks ended May 15 as they did during the same period a year ago.
• Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, dropped nearly 4% in April, month to month and were down just over 9% from April 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Home listings suddenly spike as sellers worry they'''ll miss out on red hot market

I sat next to a hedge fund manager on a recent flight. He reckoned we were looking at 30% falls in world equity markets.

Originally Posted by Texpat

Easy on snubbie, remember the last time your fantasies landed you in the ER.

Messiah-loving mods can't stand such sacrilege, can ya, snowflake imbeciles.

You drunk trumpanzee imbecile, you have a problem with reality. Obama and his policies pulled America out of the GOP induced depression and into one of the longest periods of prosperity in American history. Fact are facts...

Obama’s 2009 Recovery Act Kicked Off Over 10 Years Of Economic Growth

Originally Posted by David48atTD

some very dark days economically over the next year or three.

during the next 20 years, over a trillion dollars in oil , gas and coal assets will be worth close to zero

Originally Posted by baldrick

during the next 20 years, over a trillion dollars in oil , gas and coal assets will be worth close to zero

One thing is almost certainly a given is that many pipelines, Nordstream and the like (oil and gas) will be 'stranded assets' ... 'worth close to zero'

Happily, the Russian down turn has stopped, as opposed to the 16% which is recording reaching for the stars inflation and asset values shrinking.

Russia Interest Rate


"The Central Bank of Russia slashed its benchmark interest rate by 300bps to 11% during an extraordinary monetary policy meeting held on May 26th, following a cumulative 600bps cut in April. The latest weekly data point to a significant slowdown in the current price growth rates.

Inflationary pressure eases on the back of the ruble exchange rate dynamics as well as the noticeable decline in inflation expectations of households and businesses.

In April annual inflation reached 17.8%, however, based on the estimate as of 20 May, it slowed down to 17.5%, decreasing faster than in the Bank of Russia’s April forecast.

According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decrease to 5.0–7.0% in 2023 and return to 4% in 2024."

source: Central Bank of Russia

Russia Interest Rate - 2022 Data - 2003-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Calendar

As for oil and gas assets, refining, pipelines ...., we are seeing now, there is no proven alternative that offers any means of supporting the world's citizens current lifestyles.

Without unstoppable further demand for energy from the less developed countries.

Or is the assumption they will remain docile/living in a third world environment. That route leads to mass migration to Europe and NaGastan which the locals are increasingly showing a negative preference.

Originally Posted by bsnub

You drunk trumpanzee imbecile, you have a problem with reality. Obama and his policies pulled America out of the GOP induced depression and into one of the longest periods of prosperity in American history. Fact are facts...

Obama’s 2009 Recovery Act Kicked Off Over 10 Years Of Economic Growth

8 years of under 3% growth

Originally Posted by baldrick

during the next 20 years, over a trillion dollars in oil , gas and coal assets will be worth close to zero

The only way that would happen is with a huge expansion of nuclear energy. But the greentards don't like that either. And this is why oil companies like BP have all these wind and solar pet projects. Because they aren't a threat. One thing you'll never see is big oil investing in nuclear.

Originally Posted by Lostandfound

I sat next to a hedge fund manager on a recent flight. He reckoned we were looking at 30% falls in world equity markets.

Even a 30% fall would barely bring the bubbles down to the historic all time high peaks of every other bubble.

The bubbles are too big to fail now

Originally Posted by baldrick

during the next 20 years, over a trillion dollars in oil , gas and coal assets will be worth close to zero

Originally Posted by OhOh

Happily, the Russian down turn has stopped

Originally Posted by Backspin

8 years of under 3% growth

Not the case for the stock market, and that is what matters to people invested in the market. You really need to bow out of commenting on economics because you are utterly clueless.

Originally Posted by bsnub

what matters to people invested in the market.

Tell that to the 42% of NaGastanis that aren't?

What Percentage of Americans Owns Stock?
by Lydia Saad and Jeffrey M. Jones

Editor's Note: This article was updated May 12, 2022, with Gallup's latest data pertaining to Americans' stock ownership.

"WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup finds 58% of Americans reporting that they own stock, based on its April Economy and Personal Finance survey. This is slightly higher than the 56% measured in 2021 and 55% measured in 2020 but is not a statistically meaningful increase."

What Percentage of Americans Owns Stock?

Are they not important in NaGastan?

Originally Posted by bsnub

what matters to people invested in the market.

Originally Posted by OhOh

Tell that to the 42% of NaGastanis that aren't?

English a problem for you? I'll repeat snubbie's post:

Originally Posted by bsnub

what matters to people invested in the market.