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  1. #1
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    China, an economic bomb for Thai prospects

    As Thailand and the world battle the COVID-19 virus with Omicron knocking on the door, the bigger threat economically for us all may again be coming from China. The scale and nature of what is clearly a huge property and asset bubble in China could trigger an economic disaster in 2022 bigger than the 2008 Financial crisis.

    The scale of the property market bubble in China is unprecedented and dwarfs anything seen in western economies over the last century. There is also increasing evidence that the problem extends into the banking industry as well as fears over the nature of the Chinese economy which purports to have increased its wealth by 1,333% since 2000 but where economic data is openly questioned and doubted by many senior western economists. The prospects facing the world economy may not be simply a property bubble bursting but a whole economy that may have been built on unsound or possibly even artificial foundations. The implications for the world are immense, for Thailand even more so.

    On Tuesday, the Thai Minister of Finance attempted to rally confidence in what has been described as a fragile recovery of the economy in Quarter 4 as the country is still on course for a decidedly lacklustre 2021 with a projected growth rate of 1 to 1.2%, the latter figure quoted by the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).

    Mr Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said an economic recovery with a predicted 4% growth rate in 2022 would be driven by government investment of ฿1 trillion and fiscal stimulus. He said this compared well with the country’s recovery from the Asian Financial crisis in 1997.


    Growing number of problems confront Thailand in 2022 not least the threat from a Chinese crisis

    However, the outlook for 2022 is anything but clear and there are a growing number of problems that have arisen including a new wave of border closures and restrictions being introduced in export markets as anxiety grows regarding the new Omicron variant of COVID-19.

    Even if the prognosis for the COVID-19 pandemic improves in the next few weeks with some signs that the new variant may be less stable and less of a clinical health danger, there are other potential storms on the horizon not least the future of the Chinese economy which is Thailand’s second-largest export market and just as importantly, very much interwoven with the country’s supply chains and Asian financial markets.


    Evergrande must find $7.4 billion in bond payments in the course of 2022 as other firms also default

    MORE China, an economic bomb for Thai prospects - Thai Examiner

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    There is some real gloom and doom in that piece.

  3. #3
    Thailand Expat tomcat's Avatar
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    ...put your economic faith in the Thai-Chinese: they've overcome greater financial challenges by using Thai government resources and native ability to 1) line their pockets and 2) help pull the Thai economy out of more serious difficulties...

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