Thread: Thailand’s GDP growth forecast to drop this year from 2.8% to 1.6% due to COVID-19

Thailand’s economic growth rate projection for this year is expected to shrink from to 1.6%, from 2.8%, due to the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the latest forecast by the Economic and Business Forecast Centre of the Thai Chamber of Commerce University.


The report says that many more people have been infected by coronavirus during the third wave, which started on April 1st,prompting the government to impose several preventive measures and restrictions.


It said that the number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand this year is expected to fall to about 2.8 million, from an earlier projection of 4 million, because of the new wave of infections.


The forecast is based on the assumption that the government can contain the pandemic within two months, said the report, noting that the 1.2% decrease in the growth projection translates into a 200 billion baht economic loss per month.


The TCCU’s think tank, however, said that the weakening of the Thai baht, averaging 30.80 baht per US dollar for the whole year, will help boost Thai exports, which are forecast to expand by 4.7% for the whole year, instead of 3.5% as previously projected.


Thailand's GDP growth forecast to drop this year from 2.8% to 1.6% due to COVID-19 | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and English. We bring Thailand to the world

"The forecast is based on the assumption that the government can contain the pandemic within two months, said the report"

Always good when the Thai government provides the laughs. Maybe they haven't heard the expression "It's to late to shut the door when the horse has bolted!"

There is no real evidence that Thailand is getting its vaccination program rolled out as quickly as needed. There could be negative growth again this year. This from Nasdaq a couple of weeks back:


Thai economy may grow less than forecast after new outbreak-c.bank

BANGKOK, April 9 (Reuters) - Thailand's economy may expand less than forecast this year, a central bank official said on Friday, after a third wave of coronavirus infections and concerns about the presence of a highly contagious variant.

The tourism-reliant economy suffered the deepest slump in over two decades last year, down 6.1%, due to the impact of the pandemic, with the key tourism sector still struggling.

Uncertainties remain, with a risk that growth could be less than the Bank of Thailand's 3.0% forecast this year, senior director Chayawadee Chai-Anant told an analyst meeting.

However, in the worst case scenario, the economy might contract sharply like last year, if there were issues with variants and vaccines efficacy, Chayawadee said.

Thai economy may grow less than forecast after new outbreak-c.bank | Nasdaq

I don't see the THB averaging 30.80 per USD for the whole year either. However, I thought that last year when it reached about 33, then it strengthened by 10% for reasons that are hidden from me. We shall see.

There is a silver lining. As other countries see growth and the THB depreciates then exporters could be in for a better year.

Yep - let's hope those exporters get lots of such help this year.

And tourism also benefits hugely of course.

Maybe Chico will even be able to get his wellness clinic and almond dealership off the ground.

Originally Posted by Grumpy John

"The forecast is based on the assumption that the government can contain the pandemic within two months, said the report"

Always good when the Thai government provides the laughs. Maybe they haven't heard the expression "It's to late to shut the door when the horse has bolted!"

What an insightful sight from you...
Why the Thai govt does not fare so well as many other do - even much more developed and rich...
Nevertheless, affording his subjects free medical care...

Originally Posted by cyrille

Yep - let's hope those exporters get lots of such help this year.

Another insightful expert... any details how the pandemic is harming the Thai export?

Originally Posted by Klondyke

Another insightful expert... any details how the pandemic is harming the Thai export?

Originally Posted by Klondyke

Another insightful expert

Whereas you evidently can't even read.

In fact, the headline export numbers hide the breakdown, which contains some important detail. This, from one year ago, May 2020:

"Thailand exported almost 48 tonnes of gold in April, a near 90% increase from the elevated March figure, but more than 830% higher than the 5 tonnes recorded in April 2019. Meanwhile, imports plummeted to just over 1 tonne, the lowest level since February 2009."

Thailand's April gold exports increase 830% from 2019 as consumers sell en mass | Kitco News

In just one month, net 47 tonnes of gold were exported. That makes the headline export figure look better than it really is. We don't make gold, it is imported and people buy it when times are good, then sell it when they need cash. People literally selling the family jewels. So the exports of manufactured goods and items other than gold in April 2020 actually fell more than the headline numbers suggest.

I believe that gold was one of the things that pushed the Baht back up in the middle of last year. Maybe even the main thing.

Originally Posted by cyrille

Whereas you evidently can't even read.

It depends on how you trust what figures are entered in the statistics in Thailand as an "export". The reality is that over the last years there are not enough available ships in a given moment for boarding the exporting containers.

Beside the fact that many large importing corporations (US, AUS) rather try to reduce their sourcing in China, thus bringing it to Thailand.

However, what might reduce the figures is the fact that the many Thai companies sub-supplying Japanese, US and other car industries had to slow down due to the shortage of electronic parts, some caused by momentary shortage of rare earth metals.

Most of the rare earth materials are - beside in Africa - to be mined in Siberia. And it is not fair by dangerous Mr. P. that he does not want to freely share it with others, as once complained by the good old lady Albright... (Why he does not want to share like others share the rare materials mined on Wall Street?)

March exports set new high


BANGKOK (NNT) - Although the COVID-19 outbreak has continuously aggravated countries everywhere, US economic stimulus measures and the rapid distribution of vaccine worldwide, have improved the economic outlook of major trading partners. Thailand’s exports in March totaled more than 750 billion baht, up 8.47 percent year-on-year. The figures were a record high for Thailand.


Mr Jurin Laksanawisit, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce, said if oil, gold and military supplies were excluded, Thai exports in March would have grown as much as 12 percent thanks to the global economic recovery, cooperation between the public and private sectors of Thailand on driving exports, which lead to timely solutions to problems including a shortage of containers, export problems along the border, misunderstandings of partner countries and adjustment of the trade negotiation pattern.


The Ministry of Commerce has introduced a number of marketing innovations in the New Normal era. They include opening trade negotiations with foreign partners in a pattern of "Hybrid Virtual Trade Exhibition" or at a business matching event so that exports this year can reach a target growth of four percent. Exports are considered the main engine driving the economy as the tourism sector continues to be affected by a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.


National News Bureau Of Thailand