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Thread: No Going Back

  1. #1
    Thailand Expat
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    No Going Back

    Thailand Says Tourism Likely Won’t Improve Until Vaccine Found
    By Natnicha Chuwiruch
    April 27, 2020, 4:00 AM GMT+7


    • Tourism agency head says people in state of ‘fear and worry’
    • Visitor numbers are expected to more than halve this year


    A pedestrian crosses a road in front of the Terminal 21 shopping mall during a partial lockdown imposed due to the coronavirus in Bangkok, Thailand, on March 30. Photographer: Andre Malerba/Bloomberg
    A vaccine for the novel coronavirus is needed to help reverse a plunge in Thailand’s critical tourism sector, according to the agency that promotes the industry.

    Visitor numbers are set to tumble 60% to 16 million this year, almost halving foreign tourism income, but those numbers could go even lower as the world waits for an inoculation or if a second wave of infections materializes, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

    “Everyone is waiting on a vaccine,” the agency’s Governor Yuthasak Supasorn said in an interview April 24. “People are expecting that it will take at least 18 months -- which means we’ll have to remain in a state of fear and worry.”




    Thailand was particularly reliant on tourism spending, especially by Chinese visitors, and the sector’s woes leave it with one of emerging Asia’s bleakest economic outlooks. Yuthasak said the industry will have to restore confidence in the safety of leisure travel, adding October is the earliest he expects Chinese holidaymakers to return.

    “We must all enter into a new normal after Covid-19,” he said, estimating foreign-tourism receipts this year may amount to at most 1 trillion baht ($30.8 billion), down from 1.9 trillion baht in 2019.

    For instance, Thai islands that used to grapple with overcrowding and environmental degradation will instead have to implement social distancing. Sea turtles have returned to beaches to lay eggs because tourists have disappeared, he said.


    “It can’t go back to the way tourism once was here,” Yuthasak said. “This could be an opportunity within a crisis -- to make sure we improve, so that in the future any revenue from tourism will be more sustainable, and wealth will spread to smaller communities.”

    Bloomberg/asia
    Majestically enthroned amid the vulgar herd

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    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Could feel sorry for Thailand, I suppose, and there are a lot of people on the floor right now, with a safe though lifeless gov ignoring their needs, ruling by class diktat no different to before the virus, and looking after numba won! Now they're whining because that's what they do best, and every other country is also suffering right now even if we don't have pics to show it, but fair enough our hearts go out to the hungry and downtrodden Thais over others because we live here.

    But what of the millions of potential visitors around the world, those with lots of money having been unable to spend anything for the past months, eagerly waiting for this thing to lift so that they can go on a well deserved holiday? When the tourists and expats do return it'll be business as usual with ripoffs and scams galore, while the hoop loving thieves at immigration will be back on the gouge making up for lost revenue.

    So with a legalised junta in place that cares for face over people as looting continues unabated, cultural DNA and a strong baht, what does Thailand have that might attract millions of farangs over other cheaper, more welcoming and equally beautiful destinations, if not Isaan?

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    I hope it gets back to normal, while I understand it is necessary and I will certainly comply, I HATE social distancing. The new normal is not sustainble in any sense and it is vital a vaccine or treatment is found.

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    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    There is a correlation between prevalence of the virus and pollution. Some research suggests it can attach itself to pollutants.

    Guess that means Greta won’t be given such a hard time for the foreseeable future.

    Well, so long as she doesn’t have the temerity to point it out, anyway.

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    Thailand Expat jabir's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mandaloopy View Post
    I hope it gets back to normal, while I understand it is necessary and I will certainly comply, I HATE social distancing. The new normal is not sustainble in any sense and it is vital a vaccine or treatment is found.
    Sure, normal must be better than this, and those at the top end have a blinding opportunity to revise their attitudes toward benefiting the whole country. As others have said the people have suffered enough, and a few of them might be quite angry.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    There is a correlation between prevalence of the virus and pollution. Some research suggests it can attach itself to pollutants.

    Guess that means Greta won’t be given such a hard time for the foreseeable future.

    Well, so long as she doesn’t have the temerity to point it out, anyway.
    Next winter here could be pretty grim if that is true.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mandaloopy View Post
    Next winter here could be pretty grim if that is true.
    ...when is winter there not grim?...

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    ...when is winter there not grim?...
    When it's over.

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    The Fool on the Hill bowie's Avatar
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    Well, we/you can never go back, and, it'll never be over.

    Economic recovery will a long and hockey stick recovery. The medical damage will be overshadowed by the economic damage. We, as a society, have just sidelined a very large number of folk with unemployment. Over half of those are employed in/at a small business and a great many of those small businesses died. They couldn't afford a 1, 2 or 3 month shutdown so their doors will never open again.

    Domino effect economics dictate the hockey stick recovery. It'll be a long, long time before the majority of the unemployed find a job, discharge the debts incurred during the shutdown, and begin rebuilding their nest egg and having disposable income. Disposable income drives many durable goods purchases, why buy new when the old has a few more years left in it, disposable income is spent on fun, entertainment, travel and tourism, and the majority of retail purchases.

    Travel and tourism will never return. Implementation of social distancing on airplanes will increase the cost of airfare to preventative. Vacationing will be back yard travel to local.

    It is a long, long row we have to hoe.

  10. #10
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bowie View Post
    Economic recovery will a long and hockey stick recovery
    Isn't it a requirement for a hockey stick recovery to be sharp - ie to happen over a short period?

    Quote Originally Posted by bowie View Post
    Implementation of social distancing on airplanes will increase the cost of airfare to preventative. Vacationing will be back yard travel to local.
    Yeah, this is a major concern for me.

    We've always really known that this thing will be minimised by testing and tracing, and ultimately by a vaccine.

    This desperate need politicians have to pretend otherwise is just politics.

    Our long term susceptibility to viruses in general will be with us for the rest of our lives, but I don't believe an inability to fly long haul will last much longer than it takes to develop a vaccine for COVID.

    Get vaccinated and certified for it and we'll be good to go.
    Last edited by cyrille; 27-04-2020 at 10:24 AM.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by bowie View Post
    Well, we/you can never go back, and, it'll never be over.

    Economic recovery will a long and hockey stick recovery. The medical damage will be overshadowed by the economic damage. We, as a society, have just sidelined a very large number of folk with unemployment. Over half of those are employed in/at a small business and a great many of those small businesses died. They couldn't afford a 1, 2 or 3 month shutdown so their doors will never open again.

    Domino effect economics dictate the hockey stick recovery. It'll be a long, long time before the majority of the unemployed find a job, discharge the debts incurred during the shutdown, and begin rebuilding their nest egg and having disposable income. Disposable income drives many durable goods purchases, why buy new when the old has a few more years left in it, disposable income is spent on fun, entertainment, travel and tourism, and the majority of retail purchases.

    Travel and tourism will never return. Implementation of social distancing on airplanes will increase the cost of airfare to preventative. Vacationing will be back yard travel to local.

    It is a long, long row we have to hoe.
    ...way too pessimistic...don't underestimate the power of capitalism to grow from nothing to boom, particularly with government support. The danger, of course, is moronic governors freeing up the trailer parks too soon and restarting viral spread before everyone, yes, everyone in every ghetto, Indian reservation, downtrodden slum and double-wide snake pit is tested...later, we can vaccinate the folks we really need...
    Last edited by tomcat; 27-04-2020 at 12:18 PM.

  12. #12
    CCBW JPPR2's Avatar
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    My take on it all, Just like everything, people forget. I think very different about this. Once the stay at home requirements have been relaxed or lifted, people will start going out and in no time this will be something a huge group of people sitting near each other will be talking about then it will be a page in the history books.

    That said though, lots to be learned about these types of viruses and how to react/respond to them. Takeaways for me; all politicians lie and money is #1, China lies about virtually everything and always will. US with all of its great things and supposedly smartest people reacted the slowest and the arrogance of much of the population lead to the highest rate of cases and deaths from the virus.

    A group of my colleagues and I talk and wonder what would have happened had they just let this go like a flu season? Yes put out the warnings of masks, wash your hands, good hygiene etc. Does anybody really know? Some say it would be 5x worse... I say Really? Seems like more subjectivity to the already loads of it now.

    From a positive perspective, Look at the significantly reduced pollution levels in big cities. Amazing satellite pics.

    Will we learn from this....I doubt it. Soon, as I said, everybody will be back at it trying feverishly to recover the financial impact they endured. Those who cannot, will file bankruptcy and start over. Lawyers and attorneys stand to come out on top as they will be representing businesses that can't recover and people who can't make ends meet. People will be looking to sue anybody and everybody they can.

    Let the games begin.....

  13. #13
    The Fool on the Hill bowie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    Isn't it a requirement for a hockey stick recovery to be sharp - ie to happen over a short period?
    Hockey stick profile, sharp decline, with the slow/long ramp up being the handle.

    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    way too pessimistic
    naw, the problem is in employment, or lack there of, and debt resolution. The majority of the unemployed will have a significant problem finding jobs. A lot of businesses cannot reopen. They were already operating on a shoestring budget, and will be trying to be re-open with a reduced customer base having little disposable income. Domino effect spending.

    The general public will become spendthrifts.

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    Hansum Man! panama hat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    don't underestimate the power of capitalism to grow from nothing to boom, particularly with government support
    I'd agree with Tomcat - one just needs to look at the speed at which some countries are relaxing their restrictions . . . and the US is fixated on doing so as well.

    People here are busting to go back to work, to be productive, to earn and spend

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    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    What is a Hockey Stick Chart?
    A hockey stick chart is a line chart in which a sharp increase occurs suddenly after a short period of quiescence.
    No Going Back-hockey-stick-graph-768x620-jpg

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hockey-stick-chart.asp

    So...I agree there might well be a hockey stick effect. I disagree that this means flatlining for years. It means exactly the opposite.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bowie View Post
    naw, the problem is in employment, or lack there of, and debt resolution. The majority of the unemployed will have a significant problem finding jobs. A lot of businesses cannot reopen. They were already operating on a shoestring budget, and will be trying to be re-open with a reduced customer base having little disposable income. Domino effect spending.

    The general public will become spendthrifts.
    ...sounds like you're generalizing from your own fears (or perhaps wishes)...underestimating entrepreneurial spirit in US culture is, imo, a mistake...particularly, as noted, with government support...

  17. #17
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by panama hat View Post
    I'd agree with Tomcat - one just needs to look at the speed at which some countries are relaxing their restrictions . . . and the US is fixated on doing so as well.

    People here are busting to go back to work, to be productive, to earn and spend
    That's how it is at the moment, but that doesn't mean it's going to be the same message and mood in a couple of weeks.

    At the moment public figures (excluding orange moron here) have to keep a balance between being realistic and not encouraging people to throw themselves off buildings.

    It's a bit like when that flight is delayed by six hours. First of all you're told the delay is for ninety minutes, then another ninety, then...

    The reality is that the situation has very recently been relatively stable only because of self isolating.

    Does any more need to be said?

  18. #18
    The Fool on the Hill bowie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    So...I agree there might well be a hockey stick effect. I disagree that this means flatlining for years. It means exactly the opposite.
    Cy - nice graphic. However, I would not characterize that as a recovery graph, but rather as an advancement graph.

    A recovery graph would depict a pattern from the high at the onset of decline (the tip of the hockey sticks blade) to the point in time the graph re-achieved the high. (see below)

    No Going Back-hockey-stick-graph-z-jpg
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails No Going Back-hockey-stick-graph-z-jpg  

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    The Fool on the Hill bowie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    sounds like you're generalizing
    Well, seems like the world in general has been, well, generalizing. We, the entire human race, is/are guessing. Throwing darts at the board. We, all our experts, are, if fact, dealing with best guesses until such a time as we do have a viable, proven method of accurate testing. We are getting there, but, are not there yet. Our testing program has been beset by failed, erroneous, incorrect and generally unreliable data presented at correct.

    Anyway, once an adequate number of reliable, and accurate testing is in place, we will be able to actually track our progress in fighting Covid - our experts are flying blind. And until we equip them with the correct metrics to track the efficacy of their efforts, they will not be able to fight Covid.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cyrille View Post
    There is a correlation between prevalence of the virus and pollution. Some research suggests it can attach itself to pollutants.

    Guess that means Greta won’t be given such a hard time for the foreseeable future.

    Well, so long as she doesn’t have the temerity to point it out, anyway.
    I don’t for one minute doubt the veracity of your statement, but some context would be appreciated.
    Are you referring to air pollution in major cities, industrial pollution from factories, I.e. airborne and waterway pollution, or more domestic waste in general?
    Genuine question.

  21. #21
    Hangin' Around cyrille's Avatar
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    Principally air pollution in major cities in reponse to Mandaloopy, who lives in Ulan Bator.

    That was the context.

    Coronavirus detected on particles of air pollution | Environment | The Guardian

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    ความรู้ลึกลับ HuangLao's Avatar
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    Normal.
    New normal.

    Whatever those are.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by bowie View Post
    a) Well, seems like the world in general has been, well, generalizing. b) We, the entire human race, is/are guessing. Throwing darts at the board. c) We, all our experts, are, if fact, dealing with best guesses until such a time as we do have a viable, proven method of accurate testing. We are getting there, but, are not there yet. d) Our testing program has been beset by failed, erroneous, incorrect and generally unreliable data presented at correct.

    Anyway, once an adequate number of reliable, and accurate testing is in place, we will be able to actually track our progress in fighting Covid - e) our experts are flying blind. And until we equip them with the correct metrics to track the efficacy of their efforts, they will not be able to fight Covid.
    a) nonsense
    b) nonsense
    c) reasonably reliable testing is available and improving almost daily...pessimism, while suited to your dark and miserable cave, is unwarranted...
    d) see c)
    e) nonsense

    Thank you for your effort.

  24. #24
    The Fool on the Hill bowie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tomcat View Post
    Thank you for your effort.
    You're welcome.

    Wassa matter, did I strike a nerve?, or step on your tail?

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    Thailand Expat raycarey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPPR2 View Post
    A group of my colleagues and I talk and wonder what would have happened had they just let this go like a flu season? Yes put out the warnings of masks, wash your hands, good hygiene etc. Does anybody really know? Some say it would be 5x worse... I say Really?
    incredible.

    have you not seen the images or read the reports of hospitals and entire health care systems stretched to their breaking points?

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