Thread: Trade war escalation could smash global economy and equities: UBS

Well its good to see the ecomoronic experts on TD,have once again astounded the financial experts around the world,about China dumping US securities.

Originally Posted by Chico

Well its good to see the ecomoronic experts on TD,have once again astounded the financial experts around the world,about China dumping US securities.

I'm an expert. China won't dump its $1.18 trillion of U.S. government bonds. I'd send you a bill but it's common knowledge.

Mark did I mention your name,I was referring to the other crew.

Originally Posted by SKkin

No, we were giving it to them...whole factories included in some cases.

I'm sure a contract or two were signed and exchanges. But if in the Chinese language and to be decided in Chinese courts, some might deduce they were worthless.

Originally Posted by mark45y

I'm an expert. China won't dump its $1.18 trillion of U.S. government bonds. I'd send you a bill but it's common knowledge.

Copied for posterity.

Does China have any bonds to dump? Who has these government bonds in their hands, China or ameristani banks as "collateral" for loans delivered and invested elsewhere by China?

Care to reveal your sources of the "common knowledge"? Or do you charge for proof of your statements?

Originally Posted by mark45y

Try India’s likely purchase of US treasuries

If that's the quality of your links/sources, no thanks.

Originally Posted by OhOh

If that's the quality of your links/sources, no thanks.

Ya, Bloomberg and CBS news are really shaky. You didn't read what I posted. I tried but you must be another Morris troll. Go your own way fella.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-w...reasury-bonds/

Self declared expert posting free economic advice on TD.

Another fail for the newbie.

Originally Posted by mark45y

I'm an expert.

Min of Commerce says US-China trade war likely to benefit Thailand

BANGKOK, 17th July 2018 (NNT)-The Ministry of Commerce is keeping an eye on the trade war between the United States and China in order to protect the Thai export sector.

Commerce officials have been weighing up the pros and cons of the ongoing trade war between the two powerful nations, with members of the private sector since it began.

They discovered that the trade war is likely to do more good than harm to the export sector as it has given Thailand an opportunity to promote exports of certain goods to America and China, in place of those facing higher tariffs.

Thailand can export more seafood, fruit and meat to China as it will cost the country more to import from America. Despite a positive outlook, the Ministry of Commerce will continue to monitor the trade war closely to mitigate any impact on Thailand's export sector.

As for this year’s export growth, the Ministry of Commerce is set to raise the previous projection of 8% given current supporting factors. The new growth forecast will be released next month.


National News Bureau Of Thailand | Min of Commerce says US-China trade war likely to benefit Thailand

Min of Commerce says US-China trade war likely to benefit Thailand

BANGKOK, 17th July 2018 (NNT)-The Ministry of Commerce is keeping an eye on the trade war between the United States and China in order to protect the Thai export sector.

Commerce officials have been weighing up the pros and cons of the ongoing trade war between the two powerful nations, with members of the private sector since it began.

They discovered that the trade war is likely to do more good than harm to the export sector as it has given Thailand an opportunity to promote exports of certain goods to America and China, in place of those facing higher tariffs.

Thailand can export more seafood, fruit and meat to China as it will cost the country more to import from America. Despite a positive outlook, the Ministry of Commerce will continue to monitor the trade war closely to mitigate any impact on Thailand's export sector.

As for this year’s export growth, the Ministry of Commerce is set to raise the previous projection of 8% given current supporting factors. The new growth forecast will be released next month.


National News Bureau Of Thailand | Min of Commerce says US-China trade war likely to benefit Thailand

Half of China's total trade to be settled in yuan by 2020 - HSBC CEO

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Cross-border trade settlement denominated in China’s yuan currency is expected to climb to over 50 percent of China’s total trade by 2020, more than doubling the current level, Stuart Gulliver, HSBC’s Group Chief Executive, said on Thursday.

A scheme launched in 2009 and initially in five Chinese cities to encourage cross-border trade settlement in yuan rather than U.S. dollars has seen rapid growth in the past few years, with yuan settlement of trade debts rising from 1 percent of transactions in 2010 to 22 percent last year.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-yuan-offshore/half-of-chinas-total-trade-to-be-settled-in-yuan-by-2020-hsbc-ceo-idUKKBN0MM0EL20150326



China overtakes US in world trade

China has become the world's biggest trading nation in goods, ending the post-war dominance of the US, according to official figures.
China's customs administration said the combined total for imports and exports in Chinese goods reached $3.87tn (£2.4tn) in 2012, edging past the $3.82tn trade in goods registed by the US commerce department.

The landmark total for Chinese trade indicates the extent of Beijing's dependence on the rest of the world to generate jobs and income compared with a US economy that remains twice the size, and more self-contained. The US economy is worth $15tn compared with the $7.3tn Chinese economy.
The US not only has a large internal market for goods, but also dominates the trade in services. US total trade amounted to $4.93tn in 2012, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with a surplus of $195.3bn
.
But like most western nations, the US deficit in the trade of goods weighs heavily and is only expected to get larger.
The deficit in goods was more than $700bn compared with China's 2012 trade surplus, measured in goods, which totalled $231.1bn.

Jim O'Neill, head of asset management at Goldman Sachs, said the huge market for western goods would disrupt regional trading blocs as China becomes the most important commercial partner for some countries. Germany may export twice as much to China by the end of the decade as it does to France, he told Bloomberg.

"For so many countries around the world, China is becoming rapidly the most important bilateral trade partner," he said. "At this kind of pace by the end of the decade many European countries will be doing more individual trade with China than with bilateral partners in Europe."

https://www.theguardian.com/business...trading-nation



These might knock a hole in the ameristani services trade due to less US$ demand.

Ho hum, looks like another war, but this time the other side can fight back.

and Japan and EU just made the largest free trade zone...

Originally Posted by jabir

Ho hum, looks like another war,

Hopefully it remains a financial battle ground.

Originally Posted by uncle junior

and Japan and EU just made the largest free trade zone...

Hopefully the two signatories are equally happy with the deal and will both prosper.

'Made in America': Trump to Showcase US-Made Goods Amid Growing Global Trade Row



US President Donald Trump will host an exhibition showcasing US-made products from all of the country's 50 states at the White House on Monday, The Hill reported.


According to the media outlet, Trump will highlight the features of the American goods and their manufacturers from across the country. Vice President Mike Pence along with several other senior administration officials will stop by the event throughout the day.

"It's an opportunity to showcase products that are made here in America and invite companies from each state to the White House to display [them]," White House Deputy Press Secretary Lindsay Walters was quoted as saying by The Hill.

Goods at the exhibition will reportedly include wool yarns from Maine, boots from Texas, stoves from Idaho and much more.

Over recent weeks, Trump has slapped billions of dollars in tariffs on China and EU countries, citing national security concerns. Some US manufacturers are anticipating enormous losses due to retaliatory measures from those entities that have been targeted.

According to The Hill, some US producers have already moved their operations overseas.

https://sputniknews.com/us/201807231066597572-usa-trump-goods-showcase-trade-war/

It will be interesting to see the goods and services on display at this showcase event.

The photo shows and empty basket. But then the source is Russian.

...RT:......

Russiastan agitprop

Originally Posted by tomcat

...RT:......

RT gives the credit to The Hill,

http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...mid-trade-rows


which allegedly is:

"an American political newspaper and website published in Washington, D.C. since 1994.^[3][4] It is published by Capitol Hill Publishing, which is owned by News Communications, Inc. Focusing on politics, policy, business and international relations, The Hill coverage includes the U.S. Congress, the presidency, and election campaigns.^[5] The paper was founded in 1994 and was published by New York businessman Yehuda Finkelstein. The paper is currently owned by his son Jimmy Finkelstein, who serves as its chairman.^[6] Bob Cusack currently serves as the editor-in-chief, Johanna Derlega as the publisher, and Ian Swanson as managing editor.^[3] "

But you keep your blinkers firmly on, giddy-up

Trade war causing a real impact on US economy


"US President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that the US Department of Agriculture will adopt a $12 billion emergency plan to aid farmers hurt by the trade war. It is considered a clear signal that the trade war is causing a real impact on the US economy as well as an avowal by Trump to deploy tariffs as a weapon of trade war.

This is a funny scene. The US is not suffering natural disasters. American farmers should have made money expanding their markets. But they are now being aided. No one knows how long this peculiar "disaster" will last. Many US famers must be at a loss over their future livelihoods.

With the escalation of the trade war, more industries will be affected. It will be difficult to decide who will receive subsidies and who will not. Trump's administration is disrupting the basic logic of economic life. By causing trouble for China, the EU, Mexico and Canada, it is plunging the US domestic economy in chaos.

Other countries including China will of course be forced to face the impact of the trade war. They will also carry out assistance activities to affected industries and companies. The White House is hoping that Beijing will make a major concession to Washington when it can no longer stand the escalating damages.

Such wishful thinking is too naïve. Trump believes that US society can endure the agony of a temporary trade war for long-term interests. Then why would he be certain that China cannot bear the same pain?

The vast majority of Chinese people are well aware that China has been confronted by the US with a trade war. No matter how reluctant the nation is to fight, it has no alternative. But US society knows that the trade war was launched by the White House and the ball is in the US court to stop it or find a wiser option. The Trump administration needs to prove that it is correct to bring its people anguish through the trade war, while other nations do not need to do anything more than retaliate.

China has experienced numerous difficulties and challenges. Its development in the past 20 years has been relatively smooth, but its mechanism remains to deal with major obstacles. The nation once faced massive layoffs among its State-owned enterprises and collective economic sanctions from the West. How could the difficulties of a trade war be insurmountable?

Washington has always accused Europe and China of agriculture subsidies. As a matter of fact, the US itself has long offered subsidies to its farmers, and now it has announced increased subsidies. It seems that the international discourse around the rules will be changed.

Some believe that Trump will hold onto his mistakes before the mid-term election in November, so as to maintain support.

But the Chinese people are looking beyond November. They are preparing to fight in the long run. Perhaps only with such a massive trade war can Washington rethink the value of Sino-US cooperation."

Is the leader of the ameristani democratically elected government actually, publicly, buying votes and trying to bribe the voters, prior to the scheduled 2018 November elections? Surely not.

Commentary: US Section 232 challenges WTO rules


"The US launched five separate WTO dispute actions on Monday challenging the countermeasures taken by China, EU, Canada, Mexico, and Turkey following US tariffs on steel and aluminum. The US claimed that its new tariffs are meant to protect national security and fight unfair trade practices. From the perspective of the US, the retaliatory measures by the five countries are in violation of WTO rules. But what about the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs by the US? This section in fact puts domestic law above international trade rules and is responsible for the trade war.

Trump has repeatedly suggested pulling the US out of the WTO, according to US media. The WTO, previously known as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), was originally an important part of the global economic system set up by the US after World War II. It was an international agreement led by major developed countries, including the US and countries in Europe, with the aim of fighting trade protectionism and regulating and promoting international trade.

Then why is the US so eager to get rid of the well-regulated system and the international trade agreement that was once dominated by it alone? Is the WTO changing or is the US changing?

The WTO has not changed albeit improvements designed to enhance its functions. What has really changed is the US, which is steadily moving in the opposite direction of the system it has built.
In the era of globalization, emerging economies are rising rapidly, and the global trading system, logistics, supply chains, and production chains have undergone profound changes. Emerging economies have benefited a lot, and the US and other developed countries have reaped huge benefits as well. However, relatively speaking, the US control over the global trade chains, production chains, and value chains is not as powerful as in the past.

According to Joseph Nye, an American political scientist, the US intense agitation reveals the decline of American hegemony.
The best way of responding to trade bullying is to uphold the multilateral rule-based trading system of the WTO and defend its dignity. This is the basic responsibility of each member. International economic and trade disputes must be resolved by WTO rules.

Since China’s entry into the WTO in 2001, China has strictly fulfilled its commitments and has made tremendous contributions to global trade and economic development through its own development. The US accusation against China is groundless and will not shake China’s determination to promote reform and opening-up and to firmly uphold the principles of the WTO. China will never make any concessions on the major issues concerning the rules of international trade."

Commentary: US Section 232 challenges WTO rules - People's Daily Online

National security or ameristani politicians bank balances/election expenses?