Thread: Trade war escalation could smash global economy and equities: UBS

Originally Posted by Maanaam

Ben, if you think I'm stalking you you've got more ego issues than Lulu!
Even a simple person having used this forum will realise that the quote function quotes the last person to quote some words, thus if you quote Mark (who I have on ignore but that's neither here nor there) and I then quote you quoting Mark, it shows as I am quoting you.
No nested quotes on this forum.

Get a grip!
And learn how the forum works.

BTW, it's actually the opposite of stalking: When I see a new post is from you, I don't go to the thread as a matter of keeping my sanity unless I'm following that thread despite your contributions.

Ditto ^ The gift of gab, you definitely have. You're a forum stalker , and that's not my singular observation of your forum behavior (in my regard), either. Just the facts!

Tech stocks touch record highs, dollar steadies as trade fears ebb

By Hilary Russ

ReutersJuly 13, 2018



Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., July 11, 2018. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Hilary Russ
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday as industrials rebounded and technology names soared, while commodities recovered and the dollar held steady after concerns over an escalating U.S. trade war with China took a breather.
Technology companies - including Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon - hit all-time intraday highs, helping to power the NASDAQ stock exchange to a record high.
Metals also made a comeback, with bargain-hunting investors scrambling to buy, while oil prices steadied.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 224.44 points, or 0.91 percent, to 24,924.89, the S&P 500 gained 24.27 points, or 0.87 percent, to 2,798.29 and the Nasdaq Composite added 107.31 points, or 1.39 percent, to 7,823.92.

Currency investors may see positive implications for the dollar from a trade war, as the United States would be better equipped to weather a slowdown in trade than other major economies.

U.S. Treasury yields also edged higher on the inflation data.

Wasn't it someone on this thread that said the markets would predict the winner of the trade war?

If anyone was shorting the USA as a result of the trade war now would be the best time to reverse your positions.

I'm not an expert on these things all I know is what I read in the news (real news). Of course everyone knows that tech stocks are a more sensitive and accurate indicator because of the Chinese dominance in this area and would be the first to tank if China was winning the trade war but if one reads the above it also relies on currency value and industrial stocks.

Originally Posted by mark45y

I have an education in economics.

Why would a man of such stature be spending his time here. One would think you would be out spending your fortune made by forecasting correctly the last markets top and bottom.

Originally Posted by mark45y

USA buys a lot from China. China does not buy much from USA.

"Assembled" by Chinese in many foreign owned companies As you are well aware, or should be, many countries sell inexpensive components to Chinese based companies.. The ameristani count the finished product price as opposed to the Chinese assemblers and component makers, "Value add". They are chalk and cheese.

China's foreign trade surges


A heavy-duty truck transports containers at a foreign trade container terminal in Qingdao, East China's Shandong province, on June 8, 2018.

"China's foreign trade surged 7.9 percent year-on-year to 14.12 trillion yuan ($2.12 trillion) in the first half of 2018, despite challenges to the world's multilateral trading system by protectionist policies by the United States. The country's exports grew by 4.9 percent year-on-year to 7.51 trillion yuan from January to June of 2018, while imports amounted to 6.61 trillion yuan, up 11.5 percent from the same period a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

GAC spokesman Huang Songping said the growth of China's foreign trade benefited from the global economy's recovery, the country's efforts to optimize its industrial structure and new measures for opening-up in both trade and investment.

The trade volume between China and the US grew 5.2 percent year-on-year to 1.93 trillion yuan in the first six months of 2018, accounting for 17.7 percent of China's foreign trade.

China's foreign trade surges - Chinadaily.com.cn

Many might say any numbers emanating from China are false, many others may suggest ameristani MSM numbers are false. But many "eminant educated economists" made great fools of them selves in previous crises.



This site suggested ASEAN countries are at top place for China's export trade, 44%, Europe 21% and ameristan 19%.

This site suggested ASEAN countries are at top place for China's import trade, 51%, Europe 21% and ameristan 10%.

https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/#Trade_Balance


I suppose if ameristan threatened all of China's export markets and import suppliers with nuclear extinction, if they continued trading with China, some might wave the white flag and Kowtow. But I suspect the fear is evaporating, now alternates are appearing on the near horizon.

There is growth available in China, Asia ......... awaiting.

ameristan offers none, it's credit, resources, integrity and vision are zero. Debt, apathy, unrest and division crawl the septic streets of ameristan.

If goldolicks called for a public embargo on China, how many of the 25% of his citizens who voted for him would bite the bullet? How many could afford to?

If Uncle Xi called his citizens, well we know what happens already, they would stop any purchases, dead. They remember the past, it wont happen again.

Originally Posted by OhOh

Why would a man of such stature be spending his time here. One would think you would be out spending your fortune made by forecasting correctly the last markets top and bottom.



"Assembled" by Chinese in many foreign owned companies As you are well aware, or should be, many countries sell inexpensive components to Chinese based companies.. The ameristani count the finished product price as opposed to the Chinese assemblers and component makers, "Value add". They are chalk and cheese.

China's foreign trade surges

A heavy-duty truck transports containers at a foreign trade container terminal in Qingdao, East China's Shandong province, on June 8, 2018.

"China's foreign trade surged 7.9 percent year-on-year to 14.12 trillion yuan ($2.12 trillion) in the first half of 2018, despite challenges to the world's multilateral trading system by protectionist policies by the United States. The country's exports grew by 4.9 percent year-on-year to 7.51 trillion yuan from January to June of 2018, while imports amounted to 6.61 trillion yuan, up 11.5 percent from the same period a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

GAC spokesman Huang Songping said the growth of China's foreign trade benefited from the global economy's recovery, the country's efforts to optimize its industrial structure and new measures for opening-up in both trade and investment.

The trade volume between China and the US grew 5.2 percent year-on-year to 1.93 trillion yuan in the first six months of 2018, accounting for 17.7 percent of China's foreign trade.

China's foreign trade surges - Chinadaily.com.cn

Many might say any numbers emanating from China are false, many others may suggest ameristani MSM numbers are false. But many "eminant educated economists" made great fools of them selves in previous crises.



This site suggested ASEAN countries are at top place for China's export trade, 44%, Europe 21% and ameristan 19%.

This site suggested ASEAN countries are at top place for China's import trade, 51%, Europe 21% and ameristan 10%.

https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/#Trade_Balance


I suppose if ameristan threatened all of China's export markets and import suppliers with nuclear extinction, if they continued trading with China, some might wave the white flag and Kowtow. But I suspect the fear is evaporating, now alternates are appearing on the near horizon.

There is growth available in China, Asia ......... awaiting.

ameristan offers none, it's credit, resources, integrity and vision are zero. Debt, apathy, unrest and division crawl the septic streets of ameristan.

If goldolicks called for a public embargo on China, how many of the 25% of his citizens who voted for him would bite the bullet? How many could afford to?

If Uncle Xi called his citizens, well we know what happens already, they would stop any purchases, dead. They remember the past, it wont happen again.

I don't think anyone would say the American numbers are false and tariffs take the decision away from the consumer and put in Trump's hands. Looking at the near term performance of the markets and long term indications of the futures markets I would say America has won the trade war. I'd get another source than China daily news.

(I guess many people don't understand the futures market. For example if I owned a steak house I would buy cattle futures to hedge my risk and lock in the price I wanted to pay for beef.) https://www.tdameritrade.com.sg/tdaa...s%20%2Btrading

America has the largest and most successful economy in the world that is why China has invested 1 trillion dollars in the USA. How much has China invested in your country?

Originally Posted by mark45y

will not respond to you if you continue to use them

For a poster who's introduction was:

Originally Posted by mark45y

I have an education in economics.

One wonders if you missed out the education subject, "Conversation for Beginners". Many here, for whatever reason, were unable to participate in a "Higher Education". I suspect you may find your attitude somewhat limiting in your discourse here.

AIB

-

What boastful term is your own choice? "A shining city upon a hill, whose beacon light guides freedom-loving people everywhere", "The Leader of the Free World", "The Worlds Strongest Economic Player", "The most powerful military in the world", "We the country who bombs countries to the stone-age" ........... So many to choose from.

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

OhOh might be taken a little more seriously

Doubtful.

Originally Posted by tomcat

...or not...

More likely.

Originally Posted by mark45y

Name calling is not an adult thing

Seems to work for POTUSE goldilocks.

Originally Posted by mark45y

if the results are based on the stock exchange results

And if not?

Originally Posted by mark45y

China was stealing American technology.

Court case citations would be useful. Anything else are ramblings from a dying empire's bought and paid for politicians and media.

Originally Posted by mark45y

China makes half the world’s steel with the help of heavy government subsidies and other unfair advantages, a new report found.

"Heavy Government" bad, "Government by Tweet" good.

Originally Posted by mark45y

Did you ever work for a company with a debt ratio of 80? No, because it would be bankrupt.

I presume then that ameristani's +100% debt ratio, for the past 6 years, can be safely ignored then?





It seems ameristan is an unexceptional country, financially. Currently being run by a known. multiple bankrupt, how apt.

Originally Posted by mark45y

1. Soybeans show recovery in 2020. 2. There are other markets for soybeans. 3. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1HB11V

4. There simply aren’t enough soybeans in the world outside of the U.S. to meet China’s needs

Your posted points:

1. Possibly but not certain. Isn't that what "Futures Markets" are for, to cover ones doubts? How confident are you of the future 2 years hence? Historically and factually, very few of those with an "Education in Economics", successfully predict the future. Are you one of the few who do, can you illustrate your correct, timely, decisions in the area of your competence, Economics?

2. Of course there are, did I suggest otherwise?

3. Your linked opinion post's title is:
China deploys soybeans in trade war, but may hit own foot

A phrase some call "weasel words". Words that are inserted so that the writer of his/her opinion post, may select retrospectively, as evidence if his opinion is found to be false.

4. Possibly currently. Are there no areas of the world's land capable of being planted with soya or additional hectares in current producers available if desired? I suggest there are and not solely in ameristan.

I suppose an imperial diktat, or just a hinted suggestion, could be issued by goldilocks, threatening illegal, secondary, sanctions or bombing back to the stone age, to those countries who disobey his diktat.

Originally Posted by mark45y

You idiot. You fooking coint. You dingbat. Is this really adult conversation?

Words I don't personally use. Others maybe.

Originally Posted by mark45y

But having said that I respect any intellectually challenged person

But not enough to hold a conversation with, eh? I too respect others opinions, where they can be supported by proven facts.

Originally Posted by mark45y

USA imports from China 506 billion. China imports from USA 130 billion. USA can replace all the Chinese imports costs pennies on the dollar. China can't create a market that will buy 506 billion dollars for the foreseeable future.

I can see on a purely economic perspective that you have a valid point, if you only look at the numbers.

But, the US imports so many goods from China for good reasons, Chinese goods are affordable, and the environmental impact of the toxic processes used to produce many of them does not impact the consumer, ditto the difficult working conditions required.

Will Americans be prepared to take on these laborious, low paid and hazardous employment opportunities to produce the low cost items that the domestic consumer market demands?

It may raise employment and bring money into the local economy, but lifestyle would be impacted, and really, who is going to want to do these jobs, immigrants?

Clearly then the long term effect of the 'trade war' would be a restructuring of the US domestic market, but given the fractious state of the US this will surely lead to more internal conflict.