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  1. #1
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    CIA Veteran Robert Baer Predicts September Israel-Iran War

    One look at the most recent naval update maps shows that in addition to global insolvency (courtesy of the broke European dominoes and a potentially technically broke US), a UK on the verge of a parliamentary scandal courtesy of a media baron whose empire is crumbling, and not to mention yet another downward inflection point in the global economic slowdown courtesy of the end of QE2 and no replacement yet, market watchers may have to start factoring in geopolitical risk yet again. While the fact that Syria, Yemen, Egypt, Tunisia, and now Turkey, are ever more increasingly on edge is apparently something Mr. Market has managed to internalize, when it comes to geopolitics everyone stops to listen when renewed Iran-Israel rumblings reappear. Which may just be the case. As the most recently updated naval map from Stratfor demonstrates, the CVN 77 G.H.W. Bush has just entered the Persian Gulf, the first time a US aircraft carrier has passed through the Straits of Hormuz in months. What is also notable is that the LHD 5 Bataan amphibious warfare ship has just weighed anchor right next to Libya: this is odd since the coast of Tripoli had been left unattended for many weeks by US attack ships. And topping it all off is that a third aircraft carrier, the CVN 73, is sailing west from the South China seas, potentially with a target next to CVN 76 Ronald Reagan which is the second carrier in the Straits of Hormuz area. Three carriers in proximity to Iran would be extremely troubling, yet fit perfectly with the story of CIA veteran Robert Baer, the man played by George Clooney in Syriana, who as Al Jazeera reports, appeared on KPFK Los Angeles, warning that Israeli PM Netanyahu is "likely to ignite a war with Iran in the very near future." It gets worse: "Masters asked Baer why the US military is not mobilising to stop this war from happening. Baer responded that the military is opposed, as is former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who used his influence to thwart an Israeli attack during the Bush and Obama administrations. But he's gone now and "there is a warning order inside the Pentagon" to prepare for war." The punchline: "There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict", Baer explained." For the betting public out there, an September CL call may not be the dumbest trade possible...

    First, the naval update per Stratfor:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._13_11_800.jpg

    And, courtesy of Al Jazeera and Haaretz, the full take from Robert Baer:

    Earlier this week, Robert Baer appeared on the provocative KPFK Los Angeles show Background Briefing, hosted by Ian Masters. It was there that he predicted that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is likely to ignite a war with Iran in the very near future.

    Robert Baer has had a storied career, including a stint in Iraq in the 1990s where he organised opposition to Saddam Hussein. (He was recalled after being accused of trying to organise Saddam's assassination.) Upon his retirement, he received a top decoration for meritorious service.

    Baer is no ordinary CIA operative. George Clooney won an Oscar for playing a character based on Baer in the film Syriana (Baer also wrote the book).

    He obviously won't name many of his sources in Israel, the United States, and elsewhere, but the few he has named are all Israeli security figures who have publically warned that Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are hell-bent on war.

    Most former Mossad chiefs wary of Netanyahu

    Baer was especially impressed by the unprecedented warning about Netanyahu's plans by former Mossad chief Meir Dagan. Dagan left the Israeli intelligence agency in September 2010. Two months ago, he predicted that Israel would attack and said that doing so would be "the stupidest thing" he could imagine. According to Haaretz:

    When asked about what would happen in the aftermath of an Israeli attack Dagan said that: "It will be followed by a war with Iran. It is the kind of thing where we know how it starts, but not how it will end."

    The Iranians have the capability to fire rockets at Israel for a period of months, and Hizbollah could fire tens of thousands of grad rockets and hundreds of long-range missiles, he said.

    According to Ben Caspit of the Israeli daily Maariv, Dagan's blasts at Israel's political leadership are significant not only because Mossad chiefs, in office or retired, traditionally have kept their lips sealed, but also because Dagan is very conservative on security matters.

    Caspit writes that Dagan is "one of the most rightwing militant people ever born here. ... When this man says that the leadership has no vision and is irresponsible, we should stop sleeping soundly at night".

    Dagan describes the current Israeli government as "dangerous and irresponsible" and views speaking out against Netanyahu as his patriotic duty.

    And his abhorrence of Netanyahu is not uncommon in the Israeli security establishment. According to Think Progress, citing the Forward newspaper, 12 of the 18 living ex-chiefs of Israel's two security agencies (Mossad and Shin Bet), are "either actively opposing Netanyahu's stances or have spoken out against them". Of the remaining six, two are current ministers in Netanyahu government, leaving a grand total of four out of 18 who independently support the prime minister.

    In short, while Congress dutifully gives Netanyahu 29 standing ovations, the Israelis who know the most about both Netanyahu and Israel's strategic situation think he is a dangerous disaster.

    But according to Baer, we ain't seen nothing yet.

    There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict", Baer explained.

    The Israeli air force would attack "Natanz and other nuclear facilities to degrade their capabilities. The Iranians will strike back where they can: Basra, Baghdad", he said, and even Afghanistan. Then the United States would jump into the fight with attacks on Iranian targets. "Our special forces are already looking at Iranian targets in Iraq and across the border [in Iran] which we would strike. What we're facing here is an escalation, rather than a planned out-and-out war. It's a nightmare scenario. We don't have enough troops in the Middle East to fight a war like that." Baer added, "I think we are looking into the abyss".

    Another US war?

    Masters asked Baer why the US military is not mobilising to stop this war from happening. Baer responded that the military is opposed, as is former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who used his influence to thwart an Israeli attack during the Bush and Obama administrations. But he's gone now and "there is a warning order inside the Pentagon" to prepare for war.

    It should be noted that the Iranian regime is quite capable of triggering a war with the United States through some combination of colossal stupidity and sheer hatred. In fact, as Baer explained, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard would welcome a war. They are "paranoid". They are "worried about ... what's happening to their country economically, in terms of the oil embargo and other sanctions". And they are worried about a population that increasingly despises the regime.

    They need an external enemy. Because we are leaving Iraq, it's Israel. But in order to make this threat believable, they would love an attack on their nuclear facilities, love to go to war in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and Iraq and hit us where they could. Their defense is asymmetrical. We can take out all of their armored units. It's of little difference to them, same with their surface-to-air missile sites. It would make little difference because they would use terrorism. They would do serious damage to our fleet in the Gulf.

    Given all that, is it possible that the United States would allow Israel to attack when the president knows we would be forced to join the war on Israel's side?

    "The president is up for re-election next year," Blair pointed out, and Israel is "truly out of control".

    What happens when you see 100 F-16's approaching Iraq and there is a call to the White House [from Netanyahu] that says "We're going in, we're at war with Iran"? What does the President of the United States do? He has little influence over Bibi Netanyahu. ... We can't stop him. And he knows it.

    It's a pretty frightening scenario, made infinitely more so by the fact that top Israelis (who have heard Netanyahu's thinking from Netanyahu himself) also see the future the same way. Those Israelis deserve a world of credit for sounding the warning bell loudly enough that we would hear it and do something about it - although it's impossible to know if the people who matter are paying attention.

    Actually, only one person matters: the US president. If Israel bombed Iran tomorrow, Congress would forget all about their partisan differences and run, not walk, to the House and Senate floors to endorse the attack and call for unstinting support for Israel. That is what Congress always does, and will always do so long as the lobby (and the donors it directs) are the key players in making our Middle East policies.

    And who knows what Obama would do? So far, he has not exactly distinguished himself when it comes to standing up to Netanyahu.

    But an Israeli attack on Iran would be different. It would endanger countless Americans (in the region and here at home, too). It would kill off any economic recovery by causing oil prices to skyrocket. It would engulf us in another Middle East war. And it would threaten the existence of the state of Israel.

    This is something the president needs to focus on instead of being forced to nickel and dime with the likes of Representative Eric Cantor and Senator Mitch McConnell. How incredible that these two, and their right-wing allies, have our government tied in knots in their incessant effort to elevate themselves by destroying the President of the United States. It is sickening.

    h/t devaang

    source: CVN 77 G.H.W. Bush Enters Persian Gulf As CIA Veteran Robert Baer Predicts September Israel-Iran War | zero hedge
    Last edited by bsnub; 19-07-2011 at 03:26 PM. Reason: CIA Veteran Robert Baer Predicts September Israel-Iran War

  2. #2
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    Time to stock up on beer then. Mind you, with Ramadhan approaching, we were going to do that anyway.


  3. #3
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    Yep gonna be one hell of a show.

  4. #4
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    Persian Carpet Bombing ?
    Will the Bagsdhad and Afghan Fronts join up to Recrown the Palavi imposters or perhaps invite the Saudis in having done such a good job in Bahrain

  5. #5
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    I doubt Israel will attack Iran. For many reasons, but first because of the extreme distance involved. Even with in-flight re-fueling (which would require US help),the Israelis could only hit some of Iran's nuclear sites. Iran would retaliate with long range missiles, and it remains to be seen how good the Israeli's Arrow Anti-Missile system will function. Hizbollah will launch from Lebanon and Syria as well. The Iranians have been "hardening" their nuke sites for 15 years now. And the ONLY way to verify that one has destroyed them is with boots on the ground.

    No-I don't think Netanyahu would try it until or unless there is imminent danger of Iran attacking them.

  6. #6
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    Of course they may just launch drones ,sabotage or from places closer
    I dont think theyll wait for Dinner Jacket to strike first

  7. #7
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    Get it on!

  8. #8
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    So he waited until most of the troops will be out of Iraq then.. I recall on a map somewhere that Iraq may actually be nestled in between Iran and Yiddsville..

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boon Mee
    Get it on!
    I knew that you would say that shit booners...

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by bedouin1990 View Post
    I doubt Israel will attack Iran. For many reasons, but first because of the extreme distance involved. Even with in-flight re-fueling (which would require US help),the Israelis could only hit some of Iran's nuclear sites. Iran would retaliate with long range missiles, and it remains to be seen how good the Israeli's Arrow Anti-Missile system will function. Hizbollah will launch from Lebanon and Syria as well. The Iranians have been "hardening" their nuke sites for 15 years now. And the ONLY way to verify that one has destroyed them is with boots on the ground.

    No-I don't think Netanyahu would try it until or unless there is imminent danger of Iran attacking them.
    I think the key phrase in this scare story is:

    "There is almost "near certainty" that Netanyahu is "planning an attack [on Iran] ... and it will probably be in September before the vote on a Palestinian state. And he's also hoping to draw the United States into the conflict"
    Of course, if you were Israel, you'd put these stories out through people like Baer, so the Americans come a-running, saying "Please don't do that! We'll give you *anything*!".

    Bear in mind the US is Israel's biatch.

  11. #11
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    It is all good for Thailand's tourist industry.

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    Saffron prices will soar pm how much you require before Bahrain 7/11 bombed in error by irate Drs

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    Of course this isn't going to help things:

    19 July 2011 Last updated at 08:34 GMT

    Iran says it is installing 'better' nuclear centrifuges
    Bushehr nuclear plant (26 October 2010) The Bushehr nuclear plant, Iran's first nuclear power station, begun operating in May

    Iran says it is installing centrifuges with "better quality and speed" to improve the uranium enrichment process at its nuclear plants.

    The foreign ministry statement comes despite international demands for Iran to halt its nuclear activities.

    It said the UN atomic watchdog had "full supervision" of the centrifuges.

    The US, UK and other Western nations have long believed Iran's nuclear programme is aimed at developing atomic weapons - a claim rejected by Tehran.

    Tehran says it is refining uranium for electricity generation and medical applications.

    Enriched uranium can be used for civilian nuclear purposes, but also to build atomic bombs.
    'Peaceful' activity

    "By installing the new centrifuges progress is being made with more speed and better quality," said spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast.

    He said the move showed Iran's success in pursuing its "peaceful nuclear activity".

    Six world powers are negotiating with Iran over its nuclear programme, and the country is subject to United Nations Security Council sanctions over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment.

    Last month, the British government accused Iran of testing missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, in contravention of a UN resolution.

    The Iranians openly test-fired 14 surface-to-surface missiles with a range of 2,000km (1,250 miles) as part of a 10-day programme of military exercises.

    Its foreign ministry said none of these missiles had had nuclear capability.

  14. #14
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    Will be interesting to watch Iran kick the shit out of Israel.

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    Good, lets hope Israel does start a full on war, and that all the xenophobic arseholes without a foreskin between them get wiped off the face of the planet by their neighbours. If it wasnt for the US it would have happened already. Sooner the better, September? Spiffing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer View Post
    Will be interesting to watch Israel kick the shit out of Iran.
    There. Fixed that for you!

  18. #18
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    Wow that's clever.

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    Why on earth would anyone see any other winner in such a conflict than blue suede shoes?

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    OMG this thread is hilarious!! Some real dumb fucks here. Dipshit Jew hating jackboot wearing sick fucks!!!

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    disturbance in the Turnip baldrick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thormaturge
    It is all good for Thailand's tourist industry.
    but think of the fishes

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    OMG this thread is hilarious!! Some real dumb fucks here. Dipshit Jew hating jackboot wearing sick fucks!!!
    Not me mate, I think the four by twos and the persians are all a bunch of cnuts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    OMG this thread is hilarious!! Some real dumb fucks here. Dipshit Jew hating jackboot wearing sick fucks!!!
    What? Did you think everyone was going to hold hands and sing Kumbaya and swap recipes for cheese blintzes? Frankly they're both assholes - let them go at it. I don't care who wins.

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by bsnub View Post
    OMG this thread is hilarious!! Some real dumb fucks here. Dipshit Jew hating jackboot wearing sick fucks!!!
    What? Did you think everyone was going to hold hands and sing Kumbaya and swap recipes for cheese blintzes? Frankly they're both assholes - let them go at it. I don't care who wins.
    And to think I was about to suggest hummous and ritz crackers....


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    Israel could take on Iran by itself. With the US pulled in Iran would be finished in short order. As Booner said - Get It On.

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