Thread: US influence to decline

The political, economic and military influence of the United States will substantially decline over the next two decades, according to a report by the country's leading intelligence organisation, which forecasts an unpredictable world in which the advance of western-style democracy is far from guaranteed.


By Alex Spillius in Washington
Last Updated: 12:40AM GMT 21 Nov 2008

'Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States' relative strength will decline' Photo: GETTY IMAGES


The National Intelligence Council analysis Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World will serve as a sobering reminder to President-Elect Barack Obama of the challenges he faces leading a country that might no longer be able to "call the shots alone".
The use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely by 2025, the report found, forecasting a tense, unstable world shadowed by war.
"The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons."
Mr Obama will assume power in January with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a resurgent Russia, an Iran determined to build a nuclear bomb and instability over the Palestinian territories.
The report also predicted that some African and South Asian states may wither away altogether, and organised crime could take over at least one state in central Europe.
Struggling to find a bright spot, researchers concluded that terrorism could decline if "economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced".
However, it concluded that "opportunities for mass-casualty terrorist attacks using chemical, biological, or less likely, nuclear weapons will increase as technology diffuses and nuclear power programmes expand".
Based on a survey of trends by analysts from all US intelligence agencies around the world, it was more pessimistic about status of the world's superpower than the four previous outlooks that have been made public.
"The international system, as constructed following the Second World War, will be almost unrecognizable by 2025, owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, an historic transfer of wealth from West to East, and the growing influence of non-state actors," the report said.
"Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States' relative strength – even in the military realm, will decline and US leverage will become more strained."
The report's authors said "we do not believe that we are headed toward a complete breakdown of the international system", but gave warning that "the next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks".
Researchers predicted China and India were likely to join the United States atop a multi-polar world and compete for influence. Russia's potential was less certain, but Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.
The current financial crisis on Wall Street is the beginning of a global economic rebalancing, the report found, predicting that the dollar's role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a "first among equals".
The growing relative power of "businesses, tribes, religious organisations and criminal networks" was likely to continue, it concluded.
The analysts predicted that better renewable technologies such as solar and wind power would provide opportunities for a quick and low-cost transition from dependence on oil.
Officials said the report was timed to be ready for Barack Obama when he takes office on Jan 20.




US influence to decline, NIC intelligence report predicts - Telegraph

Has the US still got any influence???

The "New American Century" nose-dived rather quickly. lol

Time for the propagandists and their followers to eat humble pie.

The world cannot be controlled, neither by military, economic nor ideological means. The forecast is pessimistic, but I wonder what will emerge, there are challenging times ahead.

Quitcherbitchen Herr Troller.

You'll be long dead before any of this comes to pass.

Originally Posted by Muadib

US influence to decline

Possibly, but which other country is out there that will step up to the mark and take their place..........??????

The main catalyst behind all of these sensational claims is that the American economy, and more specifically the society in general (particularly with a new President) is under the global microscope at the moment and everyone is calling for it's throat.

Lets just wait and see what every other country does and with regard to their own little economic agenda problems and this should happen in the next 3 to 6 months.

Originally Posted by buriramboy

Has the US still got any influence???

That would be the definitive inquiry, my friend. How can a cultural that basically is not real and exists in an illusion....be that influential?

Originally Posted by Rural Surin

Just history cycles. Perhaps it's someone else's turn now.

I'm all for that mate, as I believe are most American's but which country will take over the big brother joystick........????.

^^ troll.

Originally Posted by Loy Toy

Originally Posted by Muadib

US influence to decline

Possibly, but which other country is out there that will step up to the mark and take their place..........??????

Iran. Allahu akbar and death to the Sunni heretics! Watch out, queers and chicks, we're nuked up and we've got your number!!!!!!!!!!

I think the Outrage and Hysteria Matrix scales a Persian killing a terrorist at only half that of a westerner. And remember, yellowcake isn't WMD. It's only used for dotting the "i"s on birthday cakes and a preservative ('bout 20,000 years) in the bread powder.

How about China? Bit of a distant {perhaps whimsical} guess. Comes around again. Since they basically are one of the original creators and instingators of all civil infrastructures as we know it....why not. I know all you Sinophiles out there are delighted with such a prospect.

Signs of the times. In world montetary circles, there is talk of "suspending" the American dollar as the standard that all money circles use. Look for the Euro or the Yuan to play important factors....

The Euro ...

Originally Posted by spiff

The "New American Century" nose-dived rather quickly. lol

Time for the propagandists and their followers to eat humble pie.

The world cannot be controlled, neither by military, economic nor ideological means. The forecast is pessimistic, but I wonder what will emerge, there are challenging times ahead.

I think the European Union will be the next super power. Only problem is they need a ten year head start to come to a unanimous decision to take action. Seriously, though the USA may not be the perfect world cop at least they are united and powerful enough to take action (right or wrong).
Who will be there to threaten or give a bloody nose to the future despots of the world?
European Union ?

UN ?

Russia ?

China ?

Honestly without the USA the rest are either too weak or don't give a damn. I think the world will become a scarier place without the USA's influence our western values are in jeopardy.

It will be China -- in my lifetime?

Maybe - maybe not.

The BBC announcer was ravenous on this story. I almost felt sorry for him.

Originally Posted by Sakeopete

I think the European Union will be the next super power. Only problem is they need a ten year head start to come to a unanimous decision to take action. Seriously, though the USA may not be the perfect world cop at least they are united and powerful enough to take action (right or wrong). Who will be there to threaten or give a bloody nose to the future despots of the world?

The EU?
Sorry, not in my lifetime...too many internal issues to gain any worldwide significance.

Yes, the US has certainly played a central role in keeping the powerbalance in favour of "the West", but I don't buy the propaganda about 'freedom and democracy'. They've sponsored and installed as least as many despots as they have toppled or kept subdued.

Originally Posted by Sakeopete

Honestly without the USA the rest are either too weak or don't give a damn. I think the world will become a scarier place without the USA's influence our western values are in jeopardy.

Values will have to change, change is scary when it's prompted by events outside one's control.

The world has already become a 'scarier place' as a consequence of international policies and actions of the "global cop".

How can you say scarier? Do you have insight as to what might have transpired if the Soviet Union won the cold war or if MAD ever came to pass?

What a ridiculous supposition.

One could just as easliy argue the US has done a superb job ...

Originally Posted by Texpat

How can you say scarier? Do you have insight as to what might have transpired if the Soviet Union won the cold war or if MAD ever came to pass?

That would be speculation. A bit like speculating there would have been a series of bomb attacks on the US and that it is safer now as a consequence of the Iraq invasion and the WoT.

Originally Posted by Texpat

One could just as easliy argue the US has done a superb job ...

Yes you could, and you would.

If we want a peaceful future, and not have China enters the picture, there is only one solution: a strong Core Euro Union made of France, Germany, UK, Spain, Dutch, and those Scandinavian countries.

Take a lesson from Thailand. When Taksin was taken out, many figured thing would get better.
Not So!
Same with America, when all the dissatisfied minds get their way of not wanting the U.S.
as The Super Power.
Thing will quickly go very bad !

So, the Question remains Who is going to step up to the plate????

Russia ! Reveals an Iron Fist.

China ! Remember your childhood story. Slay the Dragon.

middle east ! All will be equipped with a book and ak47.

India ! They will globally ban Deodorants.

If so, in twenty years I will be looking to buy a shuttle ticket to Mars.

Taksin "taken out", and a decline of worldwide power of the US - how does this ompare, if I may ask?

And what about the things you list, do you expect the US to force Indians to use deodorants? lol

Originally Posted by spiff

Originally Posted by Sakeopete

I think the European Union will be the next super power. Only problem is they need a ten year head start to come to a unanimous decision to take action. Seriously, though the USA may not be the perfect world cop at least they are united and powerful enough to take action (right or wrong). Who will be there to threaten or give a bloody nose to the future despots of the world?

The EU?

^^ Sarcasm!

Sorry, not in my lifetime...too many internal issues to gain any worldwide significance.

Yes, the US has certainly played a central role in keeping the powerbalance in favour of "the West", but I don't buy the propaganda about 'freedom and democracy'. They've sponsored and installed as least as many despots as they have toppled or kept subdued.

Originally Posted by Sakeopete

Honestly without the USA the rest are either too weak or don't give a damn. I think the world will become a scarier place without the USA's influence our western values are in jeopardy.

Values will have to change, change is scary when it's prompted by events outside one's control.

The world has already become a 'scarier place' as a consequence of international policies and actions of the "global cop".

What do you propose? Should we change our values to that of the Middle Eastern countries or China. I don't thinks so I like our western values and will bet most other westerners do. We will not change but will fight it tooth and nail. If you want to start stoning women in your family or poisoning babies to make a fast buck with no remorse go ahead. It will be a cold day in hell when Europe and North America follow suite.

Where economic clout goes, military power follows. That has been the case in world history since the days of the Mongols- who were able to do it the other way around, by first using their military prowess for pillage and thus getting rich off the plunder (as well as becoming the dynastic Emperors of China). But every great power since then- the Spaniards, portugese, French, dutch, Brits, Yanks & now prolly the Chinese- it's been first get wealth through cultivation, trade and (previously) colonisation, then get bigger armies and navies to protect your trade routes and foreign dominions, fight your enemies/rivals, and (back in the days of empire) make more conquests. Colonialism failed because the long term costs outweighed the benefits- and gave way to economic Imperialism.

The New American Century was always a load of old bollocks- the trends were well in place even before the PNAC manifesto was written by those backward thinking neo-con blowhards. The 20th century was the American century, the 19th century the British century, the 21st century most likely the Chinese century- the period of Anglo hegemony and dominance is coming to an end, just look at the massive wealth transfer from west to east. Economically, we rely on them now as much as they rely on us, maybe more. China, Taiwan, Japan and the Middle East are now creditors to, and investors in the West.

What is emerging is indeed a multi-polar world- the USA, China, India, the EU, Russia and maybe even Brazil or a Sth American economic union to follow. The competition will be over essential resources and commodities, not land and conquest- and the main prospect of military conflict revolves around that, apart from regional squabbles. The economic Heir apparent, China, shows little appetite for an arms race, and has no known territorial ambitions other than Taiwan, which is a matter of time. Theirs will be an empire built on production and trade- actually, if you know the Chinese, they have no interest in colonising or occupying a bunch of foreign barbarians anyway, their concept of China (Central Country, in their lingo) is based around 'Chineseness'. But you can be sure military muscle will follow, and diminish the gap with the US.

The article states that a multi polar world is inherently more unstable than a uni or bipolar world. I don't see why- this is not the age of expansion anymore, and trade is a much cheaper way to wealth than colonisation- plus the natives are forever restless. Regional squabbles will probably be marked by a less interventionist approach from the West, or UN, given the several power bases in the 'new world order', and the fact that the West does not enjoy sole economic primacy anymore.

The US/UK/Euro energy dominance- a virtual monopoly once- is inevitably dwindling, and the neo-cons were correct that, to be able to sustain hegemonic world power, you have to be dominant in energy- by operating or otherwise controlling the oilfields, and the distribution. But now, the Chinese are a major player in world energy markets as both consumers and investors and India, to be sure, will follow. Russia is a major player too, both as a huge energy exporter and a major recipient of foreign energy investment and infrastructure- it has also muscled itself prominently into the front rank of global energy players with it's recent caning of Georgia. Neither the US or the West in general are in a virtual monopoly position now (but still prominent), and they won't get it back. So there goes any meaningful chance of world hegemony. Frankly I reckon that is good for the prospect of world peace, as power bloc's that are forced to rely on the good graces and infrastructure of the West to get their essential energy supplies- and hence can be cut off at any time- uniformly resent it. Free competition between several competing economic bloc's seems a lot more sustainable.

If for no other reason than economics, the US needs to stop spending so much of it's GDP on the military- it is not sustainable, ultimately not productive (apart from some technology spinoffs), and in a multi-polar world the USA no longer requires the same military dominance as was the case when it pretty much did possess hegemony, both militarily and economically.