Hurricane Irma may soon grab spotlight from Harvey

[Wilsonandson]

by
Karen Braun
Reuters 1/9/17

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Hurricane Harvey has left major devastation in Texas, but there is another hurricane called Irma out in the Atlantic that could take aim at the United States within the next week or so.

Irma became a hurricane early on Thursday and by the evening it was upgraded to a major hurricane, which requires sustained winds greater than 110 miles (177 km) per hour.

Given the early stages, weather models are not in total agreement over Irma’s likely path or potential power, but all hurricane-prone areas - from the Gulf of Mexico clear up the Eastern Seaboard - could be in its target.



Concerns are heightened for residents in coastal regions of the Southern and Eastern United States in the wake of Harvey, which dumped a record amount of rainfall for the continental United States over the Houston area within the past few days, leaving tens of thousands homeless.

The damage is so devastating that Texas could require as much as $125 billion in aid from the U.S. government, larger than the record $110.2 billion aid package assembled in 2005 following Hurricane Katrina.

Recent runs of the U.S. GFS model suggest Irma could gain significant strength and impact the Eastern Seaboard the weekend of Sept. 9. Whether that means a direct hit on the Carolinas or the Northeast, or just an offshore encounter is still uncertain.

The midday Thursday European model shows some more alarming possibilities, with the hurricane gaining strength, clipping the southern end of Florida, and heading into the Gulf of Mexico – perhaps the worst-case scenario for those still reeling from Harvey.

Although the Atlantic hurricane season is near its peak and storms in close succession are common, the prospect of another hurricane is stomach-churning. In addition to the human impact, Harvey has sent shockwaves through the transportation, energy, and retail industries, causing supply shortages and billions in losses.



COMMODITY MARKETS JOLTED

With Houston at the heart of the U.S. oil and gas industry, Harvey’s hit has been felt most directly in the energy markets. The catastrophic flooding has shut down nearly a quarter of U.S. oil-refining capacity, threatening a national supply crunch.

As such, benchmark U.S. gasoline prices hit two-year highs on Monday and tested nearly three-year highs on Thursday, and gasoline margins have rallied to the strongest levels in five years for this time of year.

Transportation woes are plaguing the agriculture market. Grain elevators in coastal Texas have not been significantly damaged, but loading for export has halted as they are unable to receive supplies due to closure of flooded rail lines in the Houston area.

Cattle and cotton have also been affected, as Texas is the No. 1 producer of each. Some 27 percent of the state’s 4.46 million-head beef cow herd resides in the disaster area and cotton crop losses are estimated around $150 million, though the vast majority of cotton production takes place in the Panhandle, out of the storm’s path.

Harvey’s remnants are now moving into the U.S. Delta states, where 20 percent of the nation’s cotton and 15 percent of soybeans are grown. Soybean harvest has just begun in the far south areas, but parts of the region could receive up to 8 inches (0.2 m) over the next five days.

ACTIVE SEASON PREDICTED

The hurricane threat in the North Atlantic Basin is far from over, though.

Back in May, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center gave the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season – which began on June 1 – a 45 percent chance of featuring above-normal activity. In its Aug. 9 update, NHC bumped these chances to 60 percent and noted “the possibility that the season could be extremely active.”

Forecasters point to a few primary reasons. One is that the large-scale climate indicator El Niño-Southern Oscillation – or ENSO – has much higher chances of sustaining neutral conditions through the end of the year rather than trend toward the warm phase El Niño as earlier forecasts suggested.

El Niño often suppresses tropical storm development in the North Atlantic since it features greater atmospheric stability and stronger winds that make it difficult for big, organized storms to form. ENSO’s cool phase, La Niña, usually promotes a favorable environment for tropical development in the Atlantic.

Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the key formation region of the ocean are warmer than models had previously predicted and the West African monsoon is stronger. Tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic often begins with an atmospheric wave off the African coast and most generally, warmer waters provide more fuel to the storm.

As of Aug. 31, there have been nine named storms in the North Atlantic Basin – above the long-term average of five for the date – so the season has been more active than normal so far, including a rare April-forming tropical storm.

NHC forecasters also mention that the enhanced early-season activity back in June and July in the tropical Atlantic usually suggests an above-average season ahead.

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10 and the season officially ends on Nov. 30. Activity can persist into December, but these storms usually never make it to hurricane status and have occurred only a handful of times in the last couple decades.

During August and September, all coastal areas along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean are historically susceptible to tropical cyclones that could make landfall. Into October and beyond, this threat tends to focus more on Florida and the Eastern Seaboard rather than the Gulf.

But to have another storm as severe as Harvey anytime soon may be unlikely, as Harvey was statistically rare. It was only the fifth hurricane in the last 50 years to make landfall in the United States with Category 4 strength or greater, with the last one being Charley in 2004.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-w...-idUSKCN1BC3BZ

[Cold Pizza]

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Hurricane Harvey has left major devastation in Texas, but there is another hurricane called Irma out in the Atlantic that could take aim at the United States within the next week or so.

Another story that will take up a few days of space for those working in the media:

[aging one]

Another story that will take up a few days of space for those working in the media:

Glad to see your compassion for the victims of Harvey and where Irma may make landfall.

[bsnub]

Another story that will take up a few days of space for those working in the media

Fucking idiot. I guess that is the topic over on inforetards

[Cold Pizza]

Another story that will take up a few days of space for those working in the media:

Glad to see your compassion for the victims of Harvey and where Irma may make landfall.

I said it was a very bad thing.

I don't understand what you mean.

Did you make any donations?

[DrB0b]

Compassion my ass. Where is the furore about the 40 million people who have been displaced by torrential rain and floods in Asia. All this fuss about a bunch of entitled lard-asses forced to stay in shelters for a few days.

[Cold Pizza]

Compassion my ass. Where is the furore about the 40 million people who have been displaced by torrential rain and floods in Asia. All this fuss about a bunch of entitled lard-asses forced to stay in shelters for a few days.

Agreed, Bob

But don't tell bsnub or AO that.

They won't know what you're talking about.

[wasabi]

Oh dear I haven't had news for over a week as I've been in a remote part of the world, and to update on world events I've first looked in at TD for a worlds news update.
It's seems its hurricane season and nature being natural has surprised the media by being seasonal and , don't tell me it's all that Donald's fault.
Nothing's NEW then.

[Wilsonandson]

[Wilsonandson]

Latest 10 hours ago.

[Wilsonandson]

[Grampa]

Where do they think it will land?

[pickel]

Where do they think it will land?

Mar A Lago Resort ironically.

[S Landreth]

^

Dear Hurricane Irma

Where do they think it will land?

If you’re talking about the US. Too early yet but the Governor of Florida has declared a state of emergency.

Earlier models had it making landfall in the Carolinas, but that was a few days ago.

4 hours ago. Model prediction.

Subject title from my mother (a South Florida resident): Zero water on shelves

She was emailing us (her kids) on her preparations for the storm. Both sisters have homes along the South Florida east coast and both are getting ready. Just to be safe.

[VocalNeal]

Another reason the bad teeth, sock and sandal wearing Brits remained on their island. The very occasional flood but over the centuries they learned where the high and low ground was.

[Wilsonandson]

[Grampa]

Where do they think it will land?

Mar A Lago Resort ironically.

I watched the news early this morning.

They say it will go through the islands like Puerto Rico and maybe Cuba then go up north and hit Florida near Miami.

[Cujo]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ibbean-islands

[Klondyke]

Cuba is a world leader in hurricane preparedness and recovery. What can we learn from the small island nation?

This striking display of insect solidarity in the face of calamity seemed to contrast with the human response to Harvey, which, however valiant, appeared to remind us of the apparent futility of human resistance in the face of acts of God.

But what if I told you there was a country that has survived its last seventeen hurricanes with only thirty-five deaths? What if that country demonstrated exactly the kind of society-wide solidarity we envy the fire ants for? And what if that country had a GDP that was a fraction of the United States’?

There is such a country: Cuba.

While 2016’s Hurricane Matthew killed forty-four people in the United States, it killed no one in Cuba, despite leaving a trail of destruction in its wake. Ditto for Hurricane Katrina, which left as many as 1,800 people dead in the US. In 2008, Hurricanes Gustav and Ike pummeled Cuba at the peak of their intensity, slaying seven. But in the US, thirty people perished, even though the storm had lost much of its strength. Hurricane Isabel killed more Americans in 2003 than six major hurricanes killed Cubans between 1996 and 2002.

The same pattern holds true for every hurricane that’s struck the two countries. It’s no wonder then that organizations like the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and the United Nations have repeatedly cited Cuba as a global model for risk reduction.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/08/h...-disaster-plan

[Grampa]

Its going to be a real butt kicker.

[hick]

Family in Cape Coral, FL are bracing (putting up storm shutters, etc.)
No word on if they'll vacate or not, yet.

[bsnub]

This is a monster cat 5 storm with near record breaking 185+ mph winds. It looks to really be giving Florida a major hammering...

Caribbean islands under threat from Irma - CNN

[cyrille]

Hitting the Caribbean, Cuba and the US, eh?

Is jeff actually busy doing something else?

[baldrick]

Dear Hurricane Irma

except knowing drumpf the place will be in debt up to its eyeballs and not a money making proposition so he is probably hoping it gets cleaned up and the insurance money will pay

[S Landreth]

Dear Hurricane Irma

except knowing drumpf the place will be in debt up to its eyeballs and not a money making proposition so he is probably hoping it gets cleaned up and the insurance money will pay

one more piece of property to worry about

Trump owns a multi-million dollar mansion on the Caribbean island of St. Martin — and Category 5 Irma is heading straight for it.

A hurricane warning is in effect for St. Martin — a French dependency about 230 miles east of Puerto Rico — and other nearby islands, meaning tropical storm-force winds could arrive within the next 24 to 36 hours.

Trump owns the 11-bedroom gated mansion through a trust set up to avoid conflict of interests during his presidency. The trust has been trying to offload the beachfront property for months. In August, its listing price was slashed from $28 million to $16.9 million, according to the Washington Post. (Ethics experts have worried a buyer could seek to curry favor with Trump by overpaying.)

In his financial disclosure firms, Trump said he rents the mansion out, pegging its value between $25 million and $50 million. The five-acre estate is named le Château des Palmiers (“Castle of the Palms”) and comes equipped with a tennis court, marble floors and gold curtains, the Post reported.