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  1. #1
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    Know Your Enemy: Russian War Games Expected to Yield Valuable Insight

    WASHINGTON —
    When thousands of Russian troops wheeled and maneuvered through the steppes of southern Siberia two years ago, as part of massive military exercises known as Tsentr, Western experts spotted something unusual.

    Amid Defense Ministry orders for tank brigades, paratrooper battalions, motorized rifle divisions, and railroad cars carrying howitzers, there were orders for the federal fisheries agency.

    "And I wondered, 'What the hell is the fisheries ministry doing?'" recalls Johan Norberg, senior military analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency. The eventual conclusion, he says, was that the Russian fisheries fleet was seen by military planners as an intelligence asset, playing a small role in national defense.

    It's an example offering a small window into not only how Russian commanders approach large-scale military games. It's also the kind of insight that Western analysts hope to gain beginning next week when one of the largest exercises Moscow has conducted on its western borders since the Cold War get under way: a real-world, real-time glimpse at what Russia's military is truly capable of, after years of institutional reforms.

    The Zapad drills, taking place in Belarus and the regions east of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania and formally kicking off on September 14, are the first to be held in close proximity to NATO member countries since Russia seized Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

    For that and many other reasons, they are giving heartburn to NATO allies from the Baltic to the Black Sea, with some observers predicting that the number of participating personnel could exceed 100,000, along with tanks, artillery units, aircraft, and other equipment.

    Midterm exam

    Though few, if any, Western planners anticipate any outbreak of hostilities with Russia, NATO states have taken steps to reassure their populaces and to show they are taking the Russians seriously. U.S. Air Force fighter jets are now patrolling Baltic airspace; Poland is closing its airspace near Russia's Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad; and four NATO battle groups, featuring 4,500 troops, are on alert in the Baltics and Poland.

    That said, as much as anything, the Zapad exercises serve as a midterm exam for Russian armed forces and military planners, a measure of reforms made over the past decade.

    "The exercise is actually a very good opportunity for us to...get a better sense of what the Russian military is actually capable of: how it can handle logistics, move different units, or, in an operation, exercise command and control over combined armed formations in the Baltic theater, which is the one we're principally concerned with, right?" says Michael Kofman, a senior research scientist at CNA Corporation and a fellow at the Kennan Institute in Washington.

    "This one is a lot more interesting to us because we don't plan on fighting Russia in Central Asia," Kofman says.

    ​Preparations have been ongoing for weeks, with large numbers of railroad cars shipping heavy weaponry and vehicles into Belarus and civilians mobilized at some large state-owned enterprises in Kaliningrad and elsewhere.

    "As we've seen before, Russians train exactly as they intend to fight," Kristjan Prikk, undersecretary for policy at the Estonian Defense Ministry, said during a July event at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank. "Thus, Zapad will give ample information on their military development and certainly on their political thinking, as it is right now."

    Structural reforms

    In 2008, when Russia invaded its former Soviet neighbor Georgia, its armed forces easily overcame Georgia's defenses and some of its U.S.-trained personnel, but the five-day war showcased significant weaknesses. For example, some Russian officers were reportedly unable to communicate with others over existing radio frequencies and were forced to use regular mobile phones. Russian surveillance drones performed poorly.

    Other reforms already under way at the time included a shift from the Soviet military structure, organized around divisions, to a smaller brigade structure and the increased use of contract, rather than conscripted, soldiers.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin (front left) speaks with his Belarusian counterpart Alyaksandr Lukashenka during the closing stages of the Zapad war games in 2013.

    Reforms also included a substantial increase in defense budgets, something made possible by high world oil prices that stuffed Russia's coffers. A 10-year plan to upgrade weaponry and other equipment originally called for Russia to spend $650 billion between 2011 and 2020, according to NATO figures, though Western sanctions, plummeting oil prices, and the economic downturn in 2015-16 are believed to have slowed some purchases.

    "They've had now, say, eight or nine years with plenty of money and the willingness to train, and they have a new organization that they want to test," Norberg says.

    While the Defense Ministry conducts a cycle of exercises roughly every year, alternating among four of the country's primary military districts, Western analysts got a surprise lesson in early 2014 when Russian special forces helped lead a stealth invasion of Crimea and paved the way for the Black Sea region's illegal annexation by Moscow in March.

    Real-world laboratory

    That, plus the outbreak of fighting in eastern Ukraine in the following months, offered a real-world laboratory for testing new tactics and equipment for Russian forces, including new drones, some manufactured with help from Israeli firms.

    The Crimea invasion was preceded by the months of civil unrest in Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, which culminated in deadly violence and the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych.

    Russian military forces during Moscow's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

    For many Kremlin and defense thinkers, that was just the latest in a series of popular uprisings, fomented by Western governments, that toppled regimes and governments stretching back to Georgia in 2003 and lasting through the Arab Spring beginning in 2010.

    The scenario that Russian and Belarusian commanders have announced ahead of Zapad 2017 hints at that thinking: The theoretical adversary is one seeking to undermine the government in Minsk and set up a separatist government in western Belarus.

    Inside Russia, the thinking that NATO and Western governments used the popular uprisings as a strategy led to the reorganization of internal security forces, such as riot police and Interior Ministry special troops into a specialized National Guard under the command of President Vladimir Putin's former bodyguard. Some parts of that force, whose overall numbers are estimated at 180,000, are expected to participate in the Zapad exercises.

    That, Kofman says, should yield insight into "how Russia will mobilize and deploy internal security forces to suppress protest and instability...basically how the regime will protect itself and defend itself against popular unrest."

    https://www.voanews.com/a/rferl-know...s/4025074.html

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat misskit's Avatar
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    What's the buzz about the Russian-Belarusian ‘Zapad 2017’ military exercises?

    Russia and Belarus are currently conducting the biggest joint military exercises witnessed in recent memory. The maneuvers, some of which Vladimir Putin has observed personally, have alarmed many neighbor states in the region, especially the three Baltic countries. On September 19, footage was published online showing a helicopter fire a rocket in the direction of spectators on the ground. Meduza reviews the highlights from the Zapad 2017 training exercises.




    The legend behind the maneuvers: the self-proclaimed nation of Veishnoriya


    The premise of Zapad 2017 pits Russian and Belarusian troops against a coalition of fictional Western countries called Veishnoria, Vesbaria, and Lubenia that seeks to destabilize Belarus. According to the exercises, Veishnoria exists in western Belarus, Vesbaria overlaps with parts of Lithuania and Latvia, and Lubenia occupies northeastern Poland and southwestern Lithuania. In the training scenario, the Russian military assists Belarus in defeating the separatists. Moscow says the exercises are “strictly defensive in nature.”


    The exercises began on September 14, and will continue on both Russian and Belarusian territory for the next six days, involving almost 13,000 troops. On September 18, President Putin personally observed maneuvers at training grounds outside the Leningrad region, where Russian soldiers trained in destroying the enemy’s aviation and ground troops. Putin didn’t make any public comments afterwards, but Defense Ministry spokespeople said the president was deeply impressed.




    A helicopter bombs a parking lot


    A day after Putin’s visit, video footage appeared online showing what seems to be the biggest incident of the entire Zapad 2017 exercises (if the footage is in fact from these exercises). In the video, apparently filmed in the same area outside St. Petersburg observed by the president, a Ka-52 attack helicopter fires a rocket toward a group of observers on the ground near a group of parked cars. According to unconfirmed reports, the accident occurred on September 16. Early reports claimed that two bystanders were injured in the misfire.


    A military helicopter fired on a crowd of observers.


    Russian Defense Ministry officials have categorically denied that anyone has been injured in the Zapad 2017 exercises, though Moscow has confirmed that the video cited in news reports is genuine. Officials have refused to say, however, when the incident depicted in the footage actually occurred.



    Neighboring countries are worried that Moscow is drilling for a “real conflict” with NATO


    The real Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia (not Veishnoria, Vesbaria, and Lubenia) — have reacted very cautiously to Zapad 2017. Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė has said directly that the Zapad 2017 exercises are aggressive and modeled on a real conflict with NATO members. During the maneuvers, Estonia is hosting an expanded NATO contingent. NATO’s leadership, meanwhile, says it doesn’t see any immediate threat in the military exercises.


    Officials in Germany and the Czech Republic say that the number of troops participating in Zapad 2017 is actually almost eight times what Moscow says, claiming 100,000 soldiers have been called up (which would exceed even the size of Russia’s Tsentr 2015 training exercises). Russian Defense Ministry officials say this astronomical figure was “pulled out of thin air.”


    “People are worried, this is a Trojan horse. They say, ‘We’re just doing an exercise,’ and then all of a sudden they’ve moved all these people and capabilities somewhere,” said U.S. Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, who heads U.S. Army forces in Europe.


    Simultaneously, Sweden is hosting 19,000 soldiers for “Aurora 2017,” its largest military exercises in 20 years.




    Two Ilyushin Il-76 military transport aircraft violated Lithuanian airspace (due to a thunderstorm)


    Border guards have recorded one territorial violation since the start of Zapad 2017: two Ilyushin Il-76 military transport planes violated Lithuanian airspace. Local officials summoned Russia’s ambassador for an explanation of the incident, learning that the aircraft were flying to Kaliningrad, when dangerous weather forced them to change course to avoid a thunderstorm.


    Western observers have said they are watching the training exercises to get “a real-world, real-time glimpse at what Russia's military is truly capable of, after years of institutional reforms.”




    Coverage in the national media


    The Zapad 2017 exercises had been headline news for all of September, and they’ve become a leading story for TV networks since they began on September 14. For example, in every single news broadcast since Zapad 2017 started, Pervyi Kanal has covered the training exercises.


    Russian diplomats have repeatedly emphasized the maneuvers’ defensive nature. “The inflated hysteria is artificial, and its purpose is to demonstrate to taxpayers in the West a justification for the incredible costs of measures to deploy in Poland and the Baltic states a strengthened forward presence and buildup of NATO military activity supposedly to guard against Russian aggression,” Moscow spokesperson Maria Zakharova said after Zapad 2017 began.


    Belarusian network television has also mentioned the training exercises in almost every news broadcast, and President Alexander Lukashenko is expected to observe the final day of maneuvers on September 20.



    https://meduza.io/en/feature/2017/09...tary-exercises

  3. #3
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by misskit View Post
    Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė has said directly that the Zapad 2017 exercises are aggressive
    "aggressive exercise"? Wondering how the Lithuanian President Dalia could recognize when is an exercise "aggressive" and when friendly?


    Simultaneously, Sweden is hosting 19,000 soldiers for “Aurora 2017,” its largest military exercises in 20 years.
    This one surely will not be "aggressive", just curious?


    Officials in Germany and the Czech Republic say that the number of troops participating in Zapad 2017 is actually almost eight times what Moscow says, claiming 100,000 soldiers have been called up (which would exceed even the size of Russia’s Tsentr 2015 training exercises). Russian Defense Ministry officials say this astronomical figure was “pulled out of thin air.”
    10,000 soldiers or 100,000 ? Isn't it easily recognizable by the modern satellite technique?

  4. #4
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    Deploying German Soldiers on Border With Russia Sends 'False Signal' – Schroeder

    Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder commented on the recent deployment of 450 Bundeswehr soldiers in Lithuania, urging to understand Russia and its president.

    MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The placement of German troops in the Baltic States on the border with Russia sends "a false signal," former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said in an interview with Stern newspaper published on Wednesday.

    According to Stern, within the framework of NATO Enhanced Forward Presence posture in Eastern Europe, some 450 soldiers of the Bundeswehr (German army) are deployed in Lithuania.

    "Of course, one should try to understand Russia and its president. From the Russian perspective, NATO is building a circle from Turkey through South and Central Eastern Europe up to the Baltic sea… The deployment of German soldiers on the Russian border is a completely false signal [even though there is no direct threat to Russia]," Schroeder said.

    Former German chancellor added that in its relations with Russia, Germany should not focus on the interests of the United States, because Washington is not interested in strong Russia.

    "But Europe, especially Germany, has different [unlike US] interests," Schroeder stressed.

    NATO-Russia relations have been complicated over the past years. This has happened in part due to NATO's sustainable course for the Alliance’s expansion by engaging Eastern European states since 2014, justifying the expansion as a response to Russia’s alleged meddling in the Ukrainian conflict. Moscow has repeatedly refuted these allegations. On December 22, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the NATO grouping near the Russian borders has grown threefold in the past 10 years and eightfold along the country's western borders.

    https://sputniknews.com/military/201...border-russia/

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