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  1. #1
    Lord of Swine
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    Bitcoin Collapse Imminent?

    IN DECEMBER, when the ruble crisis was really revving up, a small number of panicked Russians appeared to start moving their money into bitcoin.
    Even though the cryptocurrency was technically banned in the country, the volume of ruble-denominated trades shot up 250 per cent, CNBC reported.
    Bad call. While the ruble has had a wild ride lately, itís down just 3 per cent against the dollar over the past month. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is in the midst of an epic collapse, having lost 44 per cent of its value since Dec. 14, according to Coindesk. Russia might be in the middle of a crisis, but its currency has still been a safer bet than everyoneís favourite online currency/speculative investment opportunity/digital fetish object for techno-libertarians.
    What, exactly, is causing the plunge? Earlier in January, some people were blaming short-sellers. But now, the consensus seems to be that bitcoin is, as Business Insiderís Rob Wile puts it, ďstuck in a self-fulfilling downward spiral.Ē The problem has to do with bitcoin miners ó companies whose computers unlock new batches of the currency by solving complicated math problems. Mining takes money ó computing power and electricity arenít free, you know ó and because bitcoinís price has fallen so low, it may no longer be profitable. So miners are now selling off bitcoins in order to cover their dollar costs. But the further bitcoinís price falls, the more they need to sell in order to pay the bills.

    Now, with a real national currency, this might be the point at which a central bank swooped in to the rescue. Russia, for instance, has tried to prop up the ruble by buying it with dollars (I donít think thatís a permanent solution, thanks to falling oil prices, but thatís neither here nor there for the moment). Bitcoin has a slightly different safety mechanism. Essentially, the network can make it easier to mine bitcoin, which should also bring down the cost of doing so. The problem is, as Coindesk notes, the adjustment doesnít happen immediately. And the fewer people mining, the longer it will take. Meanwhile, once the difficulty level does drop, more miners could come back online. That should push the difficulty level up again and make mining unprofitable again. Wash, rinse, repeat.
    A lot of bitcoinís fans like to argue that these day-to-day price movements arenít particularly important, because the real appeal of the cryptocurrency is its underlying technology. But having people willing to mine bitcoin is essential to the entire system; it basically powers the giant online ledger that tracks bitcoin trades. If mining becomes financially unappealing, it would undermine the whole project. But weíre getting ahead of ourselves at the moment. Todayís main lesson is really just that some Russians apparently canít catch a break.

    Investing in ruble better than Bitcoin

  2. #2
    Thailand Expat
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    It's down below $200, traded as low as $152 this morning. Anyone who got in early over a year ago and is not out yet is an idiot.

  3. #3
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    WTF is bitcoin??? Insanity gone mad...

  4. #4
    Thailand Expat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo
    WTF is bitcoin???
    I've seen a lot of complicated attempts at explaining this, but essentially, I think it's just air.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9999 View Post
    It's down below $200, traded as low as $152 this morning. Anyone who got in early over a year ago and is not out yet is an idiot.


    Time will tell. Nope, have no bitcoin. Could save many folks In the interim of globally accepted "world currency" transition. Just another means of commerce if accepted mutually .... anywhere .

  6. #6
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    Blue Sky.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9999
    but essentially, I think it's just air.
    Thank you; similar to my thoughts although they've been very tertiary.

  8. #8
    Cenosillicaphobiac
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    Bitcoin was a great proof of concept. The blockchain technology it uses could be a breakthrough for many fields, not just cryptocurrencies. Now it has been taken and improved upon. There are a handful of 2.0 currencies out there (among about 500 other bitcoin copies) that have taken the blockchain concept and gone several steps better. Bitcoin will be irrelevant because it doesn't have a use case to anyone except crypto-anarchists who want to bring down the banking system.
    Ronald McDonald never sells to children. He informs and inspires through magic and fun.

  9. #9
    Member Warrior's Avatar
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    Isn't all money just air?

  10. #10
    Thailand Expat
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    Yeah but BTC is air without history. Even worse than buying Russian Rubles right now.

  11. #11
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    Bit-coins demise was in the use by, money launders aka criminal elements to shift around normal banking routes. It was a serious alternative monetary system in theory.

    As for all currencies being just air, no. Accepted currencies have assets and financial economic support that perpetuates the currency's value. Current support for the Russian Ruble is based on that lack of support for its financial stability. While they have loads of oil and mineral assets they are blocked from marketing their assets, hence the value of its currency has fallen 44 % in the last few months. Frozen assets spell collapse of an economy.

    EU is currently undergoing a slope downward due to its on economic downturn and lack of future support of a failing Euro Zone economy that by its rules must support less than healthy E.U. members. closing doors on productivity by its members and hoping to keep products within market restraints rather than over producing as was common prior to the E.U. formation is now backing p the bilges in those countries in unemployment and higher taxes.

    Many things contribute to unhealthy economies and loss of currency support. For bit coin to survive it must show its strength against all other currencies with assets not pie in the sky dreamers.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warrior
    Isn't all money just air?
    Nowadays, much of it seems that way. The concept of trading goods (real goods at a real market) and a gold standard (where physical gold was kept in bank vaults as proof, to 100%, their ability to pay) were more than air, but they didn't lend themselves so well to extreme greed by the banking system...
    How do I post these pictures???

  13. #13
    Thailand Expat
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    BTC is actually mineable air. They mine the air and sell it to you for other currencies. I think it costs about $130 right now to mine a btc. It will be interesting when the price approaches this point.

  14. #14
    Pedantic bastard
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    I am certainly not an expert in this area, but it seems to me that all currencies are simply a commonly held belief. We all "agree" that this bit of printed paper has a worth above its "scrap" value.

    It seems far too possible for me that people can simply stop believing that the bit coin has any value.

  15. #15
    Philippine Expat Davis Knowlton's Avatar
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    I'm not at all concerned, since I never knew what it was to start with...............

  16. #16
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    Davis, if you send me over 10,000 baht, at an investment, I'll send you over 15,000 baht's worth of bitcoin in a few moths - how are you liking that idea; great returns.

    (Actually, I've been thinking about it, and I'd like you to make your initial investment in gold please...)

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo View Post
    WTF is bitcoin??? Insanity gone mad...
    A fantasy currency and system of economics.

    Not that we need to add to the already illusionary monetary/economic systems in place.....

    Just another layer of make-believe to enrich our pathetic existences.

  18. #18
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    It was only ever going to collapse. Believe it or not, some shysters in Pattaya were trying to get me interested in a 'new Bitcoin' virtual currency.

  19. #19
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    Today has been a crazy day. Trading between $152 and $243 in the last 24h.

    This may not be a free fall crash, perhaps just a big sell off, or some sharks whipping about taking all the noob internet money kids for a ride. We'll see, its more likely to go down than up imo, but I don't think this fall is the doom of BTC. I been watching, and there has been decent support in the low $220's.

  20. #20
    or TizYou?
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    Doesn't anyone remember the dot com crash.

    Too many people bought into "air" at over inflated prices that subsequently were priced at the real value....

  21. #21
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    They do have ATM's in a few countries, na?...Interestingly, Thailand did not buy into the idea...I guess they worry about fake stuff, that is, if they haven't faked it first...

  22. #22
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    Bitcoin isn't going to die as it's now widely used by all sorts of people including those who basically have no other option and use it for sending cash back to home countries at basically no charge compared to the robbing fees of western union/money gram, no doubting the hype that used to surround it lead to its overinflated value and it's now priced at a more realistic value, but end of the day bitcoin has a place and a customer base and will survive.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by TizMe
    Doesn't anyone remember the dot com crash.
    No, but I'll never forget the tits on your nic.

  24. #24
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    I love Tizme's tits - international currency of the finest order... Hmmm...

    International banking has so much air in it, lots of the trading is based upon nothing, for profit for bankers; it's all very farked up. Not sure about bitcoin, but it seems more of the same but even more ridiculous. For me, money should not be based on trust alone, it should be based on something substantial and real such as land or gold or goats.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bettyboo
    For me, money should not be based on trust alone,
    Faith base monetary systems seem to predominate world currencies Betty...Trust is never mentioned. Unless one is getting a BJ.

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