Thread: SNP want to keep the £ and independence.

Originally Posted by rebbu

Originally Posted by thegent

The true face of ugly sweat nationalism - thuggish, drink-sodden low end benefit trash kicking shite out of each other. And half of them didn't even vote. Well, the taig sweats didn't, probably too stupid or lazy.

" Oh, Flower of Scotland.........."

Sad, bigoted response from a person living in exile from his english subsidised ghetto.

CORRECT........Sad, bigoted, sectarianism..... Nasty, vicious comments and personal abuse from the fingertips of the keyboard general.

Originally Posted by zygote1

I suggest those who are predicting a turn again at the independence gamble would be well advised to look at the Canadian experience. In 1995, Quebec came within 1% of voting to start the separation process. Since then the independence movement has withered, steadily dropping to its lowest support in the past 50 years. Generations grow out of their hard core political views. Time and experience do that.

It's a fair point. The Federalism model adopted by Canada would seem well suited to the UK.

Obviously if there is meaningful devolution and more powers are given to the Scottish parliament that the majority of Scots are happy with then the wind will go out of the sails for those wanting another referendum, as I said previously if the devo max option had been on the ballot paper as a third option instead of just yes/no it would have won by a landslide, the future is in Westminster hands, we'll know within a year which way it's going to go.

Originally Posted by thegent

Who on earth keeps fucking around with this thread?

I mean, what on earth is the fucking point?

Maybe you're confusing it with another thread as I haven't noticed any posts being deleted from here, the 2 Brits getting killed in Koh Tao thread is another matter though.....

No, a weird glitch in connectivity. Deleted it as soon as It became apparent.

Those 2 million clueless Scots or rather those 2 million people eligible to vote who voted NO must really be starting to regret their foolish decision as they start to realise how they were conned........

^ So it should!

Bring the spoilt heathens back in line with the rest of the UK population

Besides why should the rest of the UK pay for their silly referendum, that should come out of THEIR budget.

At the end of the day the Scottish people were conned into voting NO at the last minute by the Unionists who have no shame, they don't even wait for a cooling off period before they come out admit they lied and conned Scotland, they are doing it straight away. All this is going to achieve is give the SNP all the ammunition they need to enter the 2016 Scottish elections to seek a mandate from the Scottish people to hold another referendum and they will win big next time. Scotland independent by 2020.

Cameron is going to regret ever agreeing to the referendum. I'm sure it will be a factor in the next UK general election.

After the next general election UKIP will be the major force in British politics and all the talk of Scottish independence will be replaced by UK independence from Europe.

Originally Posted by Chittychangchang

After the next general election UKIP will be the major force in British politics and all the talk of Scottish independence will be replaced by UK independence from Europe.

Hope so, but the latest polls are showing Labour in the lead, I still can't believe that people are that retarded to vote Labour but they still have 8-9 months to come to their senses.

SCOTLAND to tax its millionaires because they could never find anywhere nicer to live.

The country, which has lured oligarchs from across the globe with its mix of urban realness and refreshing weather conditions, will hugely increase the top rate of tax knowing they are too enraptured with Scotland to consider moving elsewhere.

Oil magnate Roy Hobbs said: “Scotland is both an Eden and a trap.

“Barbados is worthless after an afternoon on the beach at Broughty Ferry and once you’ve seen Glasgow, how could New York ever satisfy?

“This is why no Scottish person with money, from Sean Connery to Billy Connolly, could ever bear to move away to America, for example.

“We are captives here, birds in gilded cages.”

Originally Posted by buriramboy

Scotland independent by 2020.

I live in hope. It'll be nice to see the smug nationalists go down the pan.

So if anyone has still to be convinced that Salmond is an arsehole:

The First Minister said oil production was set to rise to two million barrels a day, taking Scotland into a “second oil boom”, as he met industry leaders in Aberdeen yesterday.

He said: “It is also clear that a wide range of credible forecasters expect oil prices to remain close to present levels, or to rise further in future years – with some organisations, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), suggesting prices could exceed $150 a barrel by 2020.

“Even with a cautious estimate of prices remaining at $113 a barrel being used, it’s clear that Scottish oil and gas could generate more revenues than has previously been assumed.”

Good job they didn't swallow his bullshit eh?

People been swallowing LibLabCon bullshit for decades, no harm in swallowing someone else's bullshit now and again.

Originally Posted by Begbie

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

So if anyone has still to be convinced that Salmond is an arsehole:

The First Minister said oil production was set to rise to two million barrels a day, taking Scotland into a “second oil boom”, as he met industry leaders in Aberdeen yesterday.

He said: “It is also clear that a wide range of credible forecasters expect oil prices to remain close to present levels, or to rise further in future years – with some organisations, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), suggesting prices could exceed $150 a barrel by 2020.

“Even with a cautious estimate of prices remaining at $113 a barrel being used, it’s clear that Scottish oil and gas could generate more revenues than has previously been assumed.”

Good job they didn't swallow his bullshit eh?

Oil prices are cyclic. If anyone has some spare cash check out the mid ranking oil companies whose shares have taken a major hit such as Premier. When the price of oil moves back above $80 in the new year these shares will rocket.

Yeah like that's going to happen.

How much are you investing exactly Begbie?

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Yeah like that's going to happen.

And that is why you fail.

Don't give yourself a headache by thinking about it.

Originally Posted by Begbie

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Yeah like that's going to happen.

And that is why you fail.

Don't give yourself a headache by thinking about it.

No answer then? Of course not you muppet.

If you had a clue what you're talking about you'd realise the seppos can handle $50 or lower so they are just going to sit this baby out. Meanwhile Russia can't stop pumping or it will go tits up.

Salmond's whole plan was written on the back of a fag packet.

SNP want to keep the £ and independence.

Why would they want to keep the £?

Couldn't they just use....

*puts on sunglasses*

Bonds!



*yeeeaaaaarrrrgggghhh*

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

If you had a clue what you're talking about you'd realise the seppos can handle $50 or lower so they are just going to sit this baby out.

Try talking to the US Shale gas industry if they can survive on $50/b or the Canadian Tar sands people, Harry. Try decide whether it is better for the US to have high oil prices or lower.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...global-economy

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Originally Posted by Begbie

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Yeah like that's going to happen.

And that is why you fail.

Don't give yourself a headache by thinking about it.

No answer then? Of course not you muppet.

If you had a clue what you're talking about you'd realise the seppos can handle $50 or lower so they are just going to sit this baby out. Meanwhile Russia can't stop pumping or it will go tits up.

Salmond's whole plan was written on the back of a fag packet.

My bad for not knowing that you are oil economist. The same career Alex Salmond persued before entering politics.

Back in the real world, experts appear to disagree with your simplistic opinions.

http://www.shareprophets.com/views/9...ks-paul-curtis

Oil and gas companies have suffered a three year bear market resulting from concern that US Shale Oil production growth would lead to oversupply. This has now come to pass, oil has plummeted from $115 a few months ago to $72. Oil companies have suffered a further sharp mark down and most trading at large discount to tangible assets.

This offers an exceptional medium term risk:reward opportunity for value investors, especially since the best cure for low oil price is low oil price.

OPEC, led by low cost swing producer Saudi Arabia, appears to be seeking to regain market share from higher cost US Shale producers. Hence worst case, the critical issues are how low does the oil price have to go and for how long before significantly curtailing US Shale supply? However no producers want low oil price and my opinion is the bottom will be in place by Q1 2015.

Worth remembering

Current global production c. 93m bopd. Current oversupply c. 1 - 1.5m bopd. Hence does not require much of a drop in supply or increase in demand to eradicate this imbalance.

Global demand still increasing every year yet existing production depleting c. 5 - 10% pa. This supply shortfall requires new production which is subject to funding at a time oil companies conserving cash. Inevitably this eventually means future under supply.

Low oil price will help stimulate economic recovery in China and Europe. Demand will also increase as direct consumers take advantage of lower price. And renewable energy less attractive.

US Shale viable at c. $30 - $80, hence the higher cost producers now at risk, especially when their hedging expires. Furthermore US Shale's rapid growth has been fuelled by cheap funding, resulting in a large Shale junk bond debt bubble. Is OPEC the pin?

Finally US Shale year one depletion rates exceptionally high at c. 60 - 75%. Hence any reduction in new drilling should result in sharp overall production declines. Caveat is future technological advances improving economics.

Analysts at Citi are now expecting Brent to average $80 over the next 12 months, while their counterparts at Natixis believe it could fall as low as $74 – and that the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, will slump below $70. Standard Chartered described Opec’s decision to keep the production target unchanged as “extremely negative for oil prices for 2015” and has cut next year’s Brent price forecast by $16 a barrel to $85.

No crash just yet: While financial stress could be looming for shale oil producers, experts aren't forecasting a complete meltdown.
"I don't think this will spell the death knell of the U.S. shale industry. Time and again this industry has proved very resilient," Essner said.
Nysveen said the breakeven crude oil price for U.S. shale producers is around $50 or $55. Despite the recent plunge, oil is still well above that at the $70 range.
Those crucial breakeven points have been trending lower and lower in recent years thanks to technological advances that have made oil producers dramatically more efficient.
"U.S. production is much more competitive than 30 years ago," Nysveen said.

Hamm has said in the past that his company can turn a profit at prices of $50 a barrel. Continental (CLR) plans to boost output by as much as 29 percent next year, while holding spending at 2014 levels, according to a Nov. 6 company presentation. Hamm declined to say how those plans may change if prices fall further.

In the most profitable areas of the Bakken, producers can turn a profit on average with oil prices above $65.03 a barrel, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Prices may fall to $50 a barrel by early next year, according to Wolfe Research LLC.

CREDIT SUISSE (Sept. 30)

BASIN BREAKEVEN OIL PRICE
PER BARREL
Marcellus Shale - SW liquids rich $24.23
Marcellus Shale - Super Rich $25.63
Utica - Wet gas $32.39
Mississippian Horizontal - East $42.15
Utica - Liquids Rich $44.04
Eagle Ford - Liquids Rich $46.05
Niobrara - Wattenberg $46.10
Wolfcamp - N. Midland (Horizontal) $53.92
Eagle Ford - Oil Window $55.29
Wolfcamp - S. Midland (Horizontal) $61.57
Mississippian Horizontal - West $64.05
Wolfberry $64.63
Bakken Shale $64.74
Wolfcamp - N. Delaware (Horizontal) $68.54
Uinta - Green River $68.77
Uinta - Wasatch (H) $72.15
Granite Wash - Liquids Rich $73.10
Horizontal
Uinta - Wasatch (V) $74.95
Barnett Shale - Southern Liquids $84.45
Rich

WTI was at about $65.84 per barrel Friday, its lowest close in more than five years and nearly 40 percent below its June peak. The latest leg down came after OPEC last week followed the lead of Saudi Arabia and declined to cut production in order to stabilize prices. Saudi Arabia has said it would not go it alone with production cuts and is aiming instead to hold on to market share during the price slump, while shaking out the weakest producers.

"No matter how low oil prices go, there will be no (shale) production shut in. The cash component (cost) will be, say, $15, $20, $25," Gheit said, noting the expenditure for land and drilling has already been made. "Oil prices will have to go below $30 for some of these wells to be shut in, and even then the owners need the cash to survive. They will milk the cow until the cow drops dead."

Morse said one factor that could keep the U.S. shale industry drilling is that there are a high number of incomplete wells that could easily be turned into productive wells. He estimates that there are thousands of such wells in Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Ohio and Wyoming.

"There are a very large number of incomplete wells that have been drilled, and they're the cheapest ones to bring on. So, if companies are going to be strapped for cash, the best way to get cash is to complete wells ... the average for that completion is $5 a barrel to complete a well that's already been drilled," he said.

Unless OPEC blink or there's another war in one of the big producers, don't expect any significant movement in 2015. If anything, it may drop if Mexico comes onstream quickly.

Don't think I'm happy about this, it's going to cut my budget for next year.