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raycarey

on november 3rd there will be several significant elections taking place....

governor of virgnia
governor of NJ
US rep in upstate NY....district 23.

traditionally, these off year elections are viewed as a indicator of whether or not the public is satisfied with the policies of the occupant of the white house.

conventional wisdom has the republican mcdonnel winning handily in VA, and a toss-up in NJ...with perhaps a slight lead to dem incumbent corzine.

for me (and many others), the most intersting race is NY-23.

located up near the canadian border, this is nothing if not a solidly republican district. in fact, a republican has held the seat since the civil war. but that streak is in considerable jeopardy on the 3rd.

the current republican rep retired (to join the obama administration!), and a woman named scozzafava was chosen to be the republican nominee. however, the teabagging crowd wasn't happy about this and they decided to put up a guy named hoffman as the 'conservative' party nominee.

in recent weeks, many national republican figures have weighed in and put their support behind either hoffman or scozzafava.

most of big name republicans are going against the party and supporting hoffman...
the biggest name scozzafava has is newt gingrich.....and presumably the nominal head of the GOP, michael steele.


this is being viewed by the national media as a test of the teabaggers power. but what's been lost in the shuffle, is that a dem could very well take the seat. a new poll has just been released, and it has a dem named owens five points in the lead.

owens: 35
scozzafav: 30
hoffman: 23

it bears noting that this poll was commisioned by a liberal blog, but it's interesting all the same.

if i had to guess, i think scozzafava will take the seat, but it will be close.


Top Republicans jump ship in NY-23 - Andy Barr - POLITICO.com
Poll: Owens 35, Scozzafava 30, Hoffman 23 - The Scorecard - POLITICO.com

Milkman

Mid-term elections historically benefit the party that is not in the White House.

It will be interesting to see these election, in 1 year.

Jet Gorgon

I worry that more than one GOP candidate will run, as is happening in some governor races, and will hand the post to the Dem as a result. Stupid!

raycarey

you don't find next month's races to be interesting?

Milkman

Honestly, no.

Good thread though, Ray.

These are only a couple of races. But yes, they are worth discussing.

raycarey

a recent poll has corzine up by 9 points....much higher than any other polling data. probably due to some sort of error or statistical anomaly.

Poll: Corzine by 9 - The Scorecard - POLITICO.com

sabang

The Republican nominee is pro choice and pro gay marriage. Much too socially liberal for the conservative wing of the GOP. There is a real tussle going on in Republican ranks.

Milkman

I think this is good.

I have my biases.

I am a fiscal conservative and a social liberal in general. I also believe religious interests should be separate from public policy.

Boon Mee

Heh...Republicans & Independents like the dude in NY running against that RINO Scuzzafova are going to clean house!

raycarey

are you referring to NY 23?

if so, i agree.

that's why palin and the talk radio crowd are campaigning against her.

Boon Mee

Somebody quote this for RA benefit? Cheers!

Christie Up 46-43 in NJ



Source

Milkman

3 points.

What is the significance at this time.

Boon Mee

cheers M/M for the quote.

The significance is that even with the heavy-handed political machine e.g. BO & company, Corzine is behind.

S Landreth

I was listening to Newt yesterday on FOX and to tell ya the truth he has a point. He said,.in a round about way, it was stoopid for the Repubs to get behind (Indep) Hoffman because they were going to water down (Repub) Scozzafav chances of winning and the outcome would be a Dem win.

I also believe that might be the case, in this race. But like you said,…it will be close.


Was just reading fivethirtyeight.com about this race,……….

There's a lotofbuzz in the conservative blogosphere today about a new poll put out by the Club For Growth which shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman leading both Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava in the special Congressional election in New York's 23rd Congressional District. The poll shows Hoffman at 31 percent, Owens at 27 percent, Scozzafava at 20 percent, and 22 percent undecided.

It's a bit disturbing how credulously the conservative blogs, most of whom are rooting for Hoffman, are taking this poll. Here are few of the concerns that a more critical observer might ask about it:

-- The Club for Growth endorsed Hoffman and just last week threw $300,000 into the race on his behalf.
-- The sample size is tiny (300 people).


(snip)

It would also not be totally shocking if Hoffman won this race (although I think he'll need to get to at least 37-38 percent of the vote, which is about the minimum that I'd expect Owens to get). But this poll would not give me particularly more confidence in that outcome -- except to the extent that it alters rather than reflects reality. Likewise, those blogs that report on this poll without addressing some of its shortcomings are more interested in advocacy than reporting.



Link: FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Reality Check: NY-23 Poll May Seek to Alter, Not Reflect, Reality

__________________
Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.

sabang

Well, Ralph Nader did it to the Dems. You've got progressive and blue dog Democrats that are divided on several issues, and you've got right wing and moderate conservatives dividing the GOP. The Dem's adopt the 'big tent' approach, the GOP is squabbling about it.

What I fail to see is why every major democracy fails to sustain more than two political parties- that is not enough.

__________________
Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

larvidchr

Germany, England, France ? just a few examples, but maybe they don't count as major democracy's?. Many country's have Governments based on coalitions or have coalitions as opposition

Norton

Particularly troubling when there is no discernible difference between the two.

sabang

England- if you mean the social democrats, which arose from the ashes of the liberal party, no I wouldn't consider them major at all- it's between labour & Conservative, the third party's best hope is to be in a position to decide the balance of power- but it rarely happens. Germany & France- well I thought they were basically two major parties too, even though sometimes coalition parties. But I think you know Continental politics better than me...

S Landreth

October 28, 2009



Corzine Takes Five Point Lead

A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Gov. Jon Corzine leading challenger Chris Christie (R) for the first time in five months, 43% to 38% among likely voters. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett has 13%, with 5 percent undecided.

Two weeks ago the group's survey had Christie ahead by one point.

Said pollster Maurice Carroll: "You could see it coming. Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead. But don't be in a hurry to mark this election as over. Christopher Daggett changed it from 'ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap. But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day. Where will they go?"

raycarey

^i'd wager corzine pulls it off. he's got a lot of star power behind him, and the guy he's running against is an inferior candidate.


i'm really interested to see what happens if the dem takes NY-23.

a civil war within the republican/conservative ranks would seemingly be inevitable.